2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Overflow Task Eligibility Model | Mary Khachatryan | Observable"}] 32:T4cd,const assumptions = view(Inputs.form({ hasAccess: Inputs.toggle({label: "Runner confirms their own authorized access", value: true}), scope: Inputs.text({label: "Bounded scope", value: "Map the retry states and update one runbook; do not change production settings."}), reviewer: Inputs.text({label: "Reviewer", value: "Mariam (product)"}), acceptance: Inputs.text({label: "Acceptance criteria", value: "Reviewer can follow the runbook against staging and trace every state to an existing source."}), scopeClarity: Inputs.range([0, 3], {label: "Scope clarity", value: 3, step: 1}), acceptanceQuality: Inputs.range([0, 3], {label: "Testable acceptance", value: 3, step: 1}), reversibility: Inputs.range([0, 2], {label: "Reversible work", value: 2, step: 1}), approvedData: Inputs.range([0, 2], {label: "Approved data only", value: 2, step: 1}), prepMinutes: Inputs.range([5, 90], {label: "Preparation minutes", value: 20, step: 5}), runMinutes: Inputs.range([10, 240], {label: "Execution minutes", value: 60, step: 5}), reviewMinutes: Inputs.range([5, 90], {label: "Review minutes", value: 15, step: 5}), reworkRate: Inputs.range([0, 80], {label: "Illustrative rework chance (%)", value: 20, step: 5}) }));33:T455,function assessHandoff(input) { const hardStops = []; if (!input.hasAccess) hardStops.push("Runner lacks confirmed access"); if (!input.scope.trim()) hardStops.push("Scope is missing"); if (!input.reviewer.trim()) hardStops.push("Reviewer is missing"); if (!input.acceptance.trim()) hardStops.push("Acceptance criteria are missing"); const score = input.scopeClarity + input.acceptanceQuality + input.reversibility + input.approvedData; const reworkRate = Math.min(1, Math.max(0, input.reworkRate / 100)); const firstPassMinutes = input.prepMinutes + input.runMinutes + input.reviewMinutes; const expectedMinutes = firstPassMinutes + reworkRate * (input.runMinutes + input.reviewMinutes); return { hardStops, score, eligible: hardStops.length === 0 && score >= 7, expectedMinutes: Math.round(expectedMinutes), outcomes: [ {outcome: "Accepted first pass", probability: 1 - reworkRate}, {outcome: "Accepted after one rework", probability: reworkRate * (1 - reworkRate)}, {outcome: "Needs escalation", probability: reworkRate * reworkRate} ] }; }34:[] 30:{"id":"23c61becd0f39842","slug":"overflow-task-eligibility-model","title":"Overflow Task Eligibility Model","thumbnail":"6cdb0ae3ef85a8e940caa7d4989706cb7621d1096787c8face51c5a430e0dc25","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2026-10-01T11:45:29.554Z","update_time":"$D2026-10-01T11:46:36.584Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2026-10-01T11:55:31.151Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"5fc369c9c1d89e78","login":"mary-khachatryan","name":"Mary Khachatryan","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/858e19c804ad8c7dfcf77292795fc37dbdf03c014623458b321e90668af6281c","tier":"free_2026"},"version":17,"publish_version":17,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"85f6888781258247","login":"mary-khachatryan","name":"Mary Khachatryan","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/858e19c804ad8c7dfcf77292795fc37dbdf03c014623458b321e90668af6281c","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"5fc369c9c1d89e78","login":"mary-khachatryan","name":"Mary Khachatryan","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/858e19c804ad8c7dfcf77292795fc37dbdf03c014623458b321e90668af6281c","tier":"free_2026","role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Overflow Task Eligibility Model","cells":[{"id":1,"value":"# Overflow Task Eligibility Model\n\nFor a five-person startup, **human supervised AI execution** starts with a bounded task, the runner's own authorized access, and a named reviewer. This notebook rejects an unsafe handoff before estimating time or review outcomes.\n\nThe transfer principle comes from [Wagglet's capacity field note](https://wagglet.com/blog/use-unused-claude-code-codex-capacity): move prepared work, never another person's account, token, or allowance.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"### Read this model correctly\n\nThe time and outcome figures are scenario estimates, not observed performance. Replace the defaults with your own reviewed assumptions. A high score never overrides missing access, scope, acceptance criteria, or reviewer. The named reviewer remains responsible for accepting or rejecting the result.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"Plot.plot({\n marginLeft: 180,\n x: {domain: [0, 1], percent: true, label: \"Modelled share\"},\n y: {label: null},\n marks: [\n Plot.barX(assessment.outcomes, {x: \"probability\", y: \"outcome\", fill: \"#6c5ce7\", tip: true}),\n Plot.ruleX([0])\n ]\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"display(html`

Decision

${assessment.eligible ? \"Eligible for handoff\" : \"Do not hand off yet\"}

Readiness score: ${assessment.score}/10. Modelled cycle time: ${assessment.expectedMinutes} minutes.

\n ${assessment.hardStops.length ? html`

${d}

` : html`

Preparer: bounds the work. Runner: executes with their own tools. Reviewer: judges acceptance.

`}\n

`);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"const assessment = assessHandoff(assumptions);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3,"value":"$32","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2,"value":"$33","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"2"}} 31:"$30:body"