2a:null 2b:["$","title",null,{"children":"US AI Chip Export Approvals By Recipient, May 2025 To Sep 2026 | North Branch Media | Observable"}] 30:T2124,(async () => { // Tokens const BLUE = "#043463", RED = "#fe0100", GREY = "#c9c9c9", WHITE = "#ffffff"; const SANS = "-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"; const W = 1000, H = 814; // Data // Commerce statement Nov 19 2025; BIS rule Jan 15 2026; HFAC testimony Jul 14 2026; Microsoft Nov 3 2025; Nvidia May 13 2025; WSJ Sep 4 2026 const nodes = { us: { x: 500, y: 300, label: "United States" }, cn: { x: 120, y: 330, label: "China" }, ae: { x: 880, y: 190, label: "United Arab Emirates" }, sa: { x: 880, y: 470, label: "Saudi Arabia" }, am: { x: 500, y: 640, label: "Armenia" }, az: { x: 250, y: 640, label: "Azerbaijan" } }; const spokes = [ { to: "cn", color: RED, dashed: true, chip: "H200", chipAt: [310, 304], above: ["H200, 25% of sale revenue to US", "Case by case licenses since Jan 15, 2026"], aboveAt: [310, 262], below: ["About $10B in licenses approved", "Very few shipped as of Jul 14, 2026"], belowAt: [310, 356] }, { to: "ae", color: BLUE, dashed: false, chip: "GB300", chipAt: [700, 257], above: ["60.4K A100 equivalent, Microsoft, licensed Sep 2025", "35K GB300 equivalent, G42, authorized Nov 19, 2025", "License free status since Jul 10, 2026", "$15.2B Microsoft investment through 2029"], aboveAt: [560, 150] }, { to: "sa", color: BLUE, dashed: false, chip: "GB300", chipAt: [700, 403], below: ["18K GB300, HUMAIN first phase, May 13, 2025", "35K GB300 equivalent authorized Nov 19, 2025", "About $1B at list price, Reuters estimate"], belowAt: [520, 486] }, { to: "am", color: BLUE, dashed: false, chip: "GB300", chipAt: [500, 400], left: ["6K GPUs applied for before agreement", "Tens of thousands of GB300s approved after", "$5B, 70K servers, 300 MW by end 2027", "Firebird data center opened Aug 2026"], leftAt: [480, 440] } ]; // Helpers const esc = s => s.replace(/&/g, "&").replace(/ { p.push('' + esc(s) + ''); }; const star = (cx, cy, r, n, inner) => { const pts = []; for (let i = 0; i < n * 2; i++) { const rr = i % 2 === 0 ? r : r * inner; const a = -Math.PI / 2 + i * Math.PI / n; pts.push((cx + rr * Math.cos(a)).toFixed(2) + "," + (cy + rr * Math.sin(a)).toFixed(2)); } return pts.join(" "); }; const chip = (cx, cy, label, color, dashed) => { const w = 46, h = 24, x = cx - w / 2, y = cy - h / 2; for (let i = 0; i < 5; i++) { const px = x + 7 + i * 8; p.push(''); p.push(''); } p.push(''); txt(cx, cy + 4, label, dashed ? color : WHITE, 10, "middle", 400); }; // Flags const flag = (code, cx, cy) => { const w = 48, h = 32, x = cx - w / 2, y = cy - h / 2; const r = (fx, fy, fw, fh, fill) => p.push(''); if (code === "us") { for (let i = 0; i < 13; i++) r(x, y + i * h / 13, w, h / 13, i % 2 === 0 ? "#b22234" : WHITE); r(x, y, w * 0.4, h * 7 / 13, "#3c3b6e"); for (let i = 0; i < 5; i++) for (let j = 0; j < 6; j++) p.push(''); } else if (code === "cn") { r(x, y, w, h, "#de2910"); p.push(''); [[16, 3], [19, 6.5], [19, 11], [16, 14.5]].forEach(([sx, sy]) => p.push('')); } else if (code === "ae") { r(x + 12, y, w - 12, h / 3, "#00732f"); r(x + 12, y + h / 3, w - 12, h / 3, WHITE); r(x + 12, y + 2 * h / 3, w - 12, h / 3, "#000000"); r(x, y, 12, h, "#ff0000"); } else if (code === "sa") { r(x, y, w, h, "#006c35"); txt(cx, cy, "لا إله إلا الله محمد رسول الله", WHITE, 5.5, "middle", 400); p.push(''); } else if (code === "am") { r(x, y, w, h / 3, "#d90012"); r(x, y + h / 3, w, h / 3, "#0033a0"); r(x, y + 2 * h / 3, w, h / 3, "#f2a800"); } else if (code === "az") { r(x, y, w, h / 3, "#0092bc"); r(x, y + h / 3, w, h / 3, "#e00034"); r(x, y + 2 * h / 3, w, h / 3, "#00ae65"); p.push(''); p.push(''); } p.push(''); }; // Titles txt(40, 42, "US AI Chip Export Approvals By Recipient, May 2025 To Sep 2026", BLUE, 26, "start", 700, "Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif"); txt(40, 68, "Nvidia H200 and GB300 licenses: stated quantities, conditions, reported shipment status, and the Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement", RED, 14, "start", 400); // Spokes const edge = (a, b, inset) => { const dx = b.x - a.x, dy = b.y - a.y, L = Math.hypot(dx, dy); return [a.x + dx / L * inset, a.y + dy / L * inset, b.x - dx / L * inset, b.y - dy / L * inset]; }; spokes.forEach(s => { const [x1, y1, x2, y2] = edge(nodes.us, nodes[s.to], 34); p.push(''); chip(s.chipAt[0], s.chipAt[1], s.chip, s.color, s.dashed); if (s.above) s.above.forEach((t, i) => txt(s.aboveAt[0], s.aboveAt[1] + i * 16, t, s.color, 12, s.to === "cn" ? "middle" : "start")); if (s.below) s.below.forEach((t, i) => txt(s.belowAt[0], s.belowAt[1] + i * 16, t, s.color, 12, s.to === "cn" ? "middle" : "start")); if (s.left) s.left.forEach((t, i) => txt(s.leftAt[0], s.leftAt[1] + i * 16, t, s.color, 12, "end")); }); // Peace link p.push(''); txt((nodes.am.x + nodes.az.x) / 2, nodes.am.y - 34, "Preliminary agreement, Aug 2025", RED, 12); txt((nodes.am.x + nodes.az.x) / 2, nodes.am.y + 22, "Transit corridor, 2027", RED, 12); // Nodes Object.keys(nodes).forEach(k => { const n = nodes[k]; flag(k, n.x, n.y); txt(n.x, k === "us" ? n.y - 26 : n.y + 36, n.label, BLUE, 14); }); // Legend const PY = 700; p.push(''); chip(66, 726, "", BLUE, false); txt(100, 730, "Authorized, shipping or delivered", BLUE, 12, "start"); chip(360, 726, "", RED, true); txt(394, 730, "Authorized, very few shipped per Commerce testimony", RED, 12, "start"); txt(40, 756, "Quantities are ceilings as stated by the issuing party, not delivery counts", BLUE, 11, "start"); // Citation txt(40, 778, "Source: US Dept. of Commerce, Nov 19, 2025, Jan 15, 2026, Jul 14, 2026; Microsoft, Nov 3, 2025; Nvidia, May 13, 2025; The Wall Street Journal, Sep 4, 2026", RED, 11, "start"); txt(40, 798, "North Branch Media", RED, 13, "start", 700); // Root const root = document.createElement("div"); root.style.cssText = "width:" + W + "px;box-sizing:border-box;background:" + WHITE + ";font-family:" + SANS + ";"; root.innerHTML = ''; return root; })()31:[] 2e:{"id":"4ab58d5055fbf2a4","slug":"us-ai-chip-export-approvals-by-recipient-may-2025-to-sep-2026","title":"US AI Chip Export Approvals By Recipient, May 2025 To Sep 2026","thumbnail":"09760ee39ea34102cf7b9161106e216efa1d0c72829ada07cc70ac525bfedda2","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2026-09-05T18:36:30.727Z","update_time":"$D2026-09-05T18:38:04.035Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2026-09-05T18:39:01.220Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"76a2df239d009536","login":"northbranchmedia","name":"North Branch Media","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/76819e141d8360b0fb326704433556feaf213b308230b2c1906d59298189200a","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":6,"publish_version":6,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"1a4a5420f054ddf6","login":"north-branch-media","name":"North Branch Media","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c80485c224f42cb4baa7e0bcefcda23343f268e832e216af1cc503d13623ea1c","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"76a2df239d009536","login":"northbranchmedia","name":"North Branch Media","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/76819e141d8360b0fb326704433556feaf213b308230b2c1906d59298189200a","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"US AI Chip Export Approvals By Recipient, May 2025 To Sep 2026","cells":[{"id":1,"value":"# US AI Chip Export Approvals By Recipient, May 2025 To Sep 2026","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2,"value":"$30","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W31","stdlib":"2","titling":"auto"}} 2f:"$2e:body"