2e:null 2f:["$","title",null,{"children":"Comparing COVID-19 Growth | Adam Roberts | Observable"}] 34:[] 32:{"id":"30d51d5081aefef0","slug":"comparing-covid-19-growth","title":"Comparing COVID-19 Growth","thumbnail":"1891a21ef0fd15eb83dd201f4410cfff4168644d5536aca2d267868d85a30317","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-03-12T11:14:05.270Z","update_time":"$D2021-06-14T20:54:37.882Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-03-12T11:16:43.890Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":true,"stars":4,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"a6ec2755c98ab89f","login":"abenrob","name":"Adam Roberts","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/35b4f71c800d4e6c9e2cfa93d55a4f89515f41428620d3050060df33504db2e1","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":451,"publish_version":451,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"59ca7144f8ccf1d1","login":"abenrob","name":"Adam Roberts","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/35b4f71c800d4e6c9e2cfa93d55a4f89515f41428620d3050060df33504db2e1","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"59ca7144f8ccf1d1","login":"abenrob","name":"Adam Roberts","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/35b4f71c800d4e6c9e2cfa93d55a4f89515f41428620d3050060df33504db2e1","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":6,"collection":{"id":"e7cc41ec60819d92","slug":"coronavirus","title":"Coronavirus","owner":{"id":"f35c755083683fe5","login":"observablehq","name":"Observable"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Comparing COVID-19 Growth","cells":[{"id":99,"value":"md`# Comparing COVID-19 Growth\n## Confirmed Cases ([_Mortality growth chart here_](https://observablehq.com/@abenrob/comparing-covid-19-mortality))\nAs the COVID-19 pandemic grows, it's tempting for people in countries who are not yet in crisis to look at the crisis countries and assume \"they have it bad, we're fine\".\nThe danger in this mentaility is that _most countries are on the same trajectory_, just a week or two behind. If we observe the situation in Iran or Italy, this will very likely be similar to what other countries experience, once the growth reaches the same levels, barring drastic measures.\n\nIn the chart below, we are looking at several European countries, and we can see that the curves are all relatively similar. The growth is charted after the ${cohortTrigger}th case, showing confirmed case levels by day. Why ${cohortTrigger} cases? This is a manually determined caseload indicating that the virus has a decent foothold already.\n\nData sources: ${sources('JHU').text}\n\n${sources('JHU').footnote}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":65,"value":"viewof line = vl.markLine()\n .data(cohortData)\n .width(width*.99)\n .height(width > 400 ? 650 : 350)\n .autosize(\"fit\")\n .encode(\n vl.x().fieldQ(\"day\").axis({tickCount: 20}).title(`days after having more than ${cohortTrigger} cases`),\n vl.y().fieldQ(\"cases\").axis({tickSize: 0, tickCount: scaleType === 'log' ? 3 : 10, labelAlign: 'left', labelPadding: -5}).scale({type: scaleType}).title(false),\n vl.color().fieldN(\"country\").scale({domain: chartCountries, range: chartColors}).legend(null)\n )\n .title(`Covid-19 Confirmed Cases by Day Beyond ${cohortTrigger}th Case`)\n .background('white')\n .render()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":216,"value":"md`#### countries selection (countries with > ${cohortTrigger} confirmed cases for more than one day)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":240,"value":"viewof countriesSelect = form(html`

400 ? '1fr 1fr' : ''}\">\n ${\n Object.keys(jhu_all_stats)\n .filter(k => countriesFilter.includes(k))\n .map(k => `

\n \n

${k}

c.country === k).color}; margin-left: 5px\">

`).join('')\n }\n

`)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":290,"value":"viewof scaleType = radio({\n title: 'Y-Axis Scale Type',\n options: [\n { label: 'Logarithmic', value: 'log' },\n { label: 'Linear', value: 'linear' }\n ],\n value: 'log'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":315,"value":"cohortTrigger = 50000","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":255,"value":"preselect = [\"Italy\", \"Germany\", \"France\", \"Spain\", \"United Kingdom\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":174,"value":"countries = Object.keys(countriesSelect).filter(k => countriesSelect[k])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":339,"value":"countriesFilter = Object.keys(jhu_all_stats)\n .filter(k => jhu_all_stats[k].filter(d => d.confirmed_cases >= cohortTrigger && k !== 'International').length >= 2)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":342,"value":"colorsDomains = countriesFilter.map((c, i) => {\n return {country: c, color: palette[i % 29]}\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":345,"value":"chartColors = colorsDomains.filter(d => countries.includes(d.country)).map(d => d.color)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":348,"value":"chartCountries = colorsDomains.filter(d => countries.includes(d.country)).map(d => d.country)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":55,"value":"cohortData = {\n let cohorts = []\n Object.keys(jhu_all_stats).forEach(k => {\n let reworked = jhu_all_stats[k].filter(d => d.confirmed_cases >= cohortTrigger).sort(d => d.date).forEach((d, i) => {\n cohorts.push({country: k, day: i, cases: d.confirmed_cases})\n })\n })\n return cohorts.filter(c => countries.includes(c.country))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"import { vl } from \"@vega/vega-lite-api\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":196,"value":"import {form} from \"@mbostock/form-input\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":292,"value":"import {radio} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":334,"value":"palette = [\"#ff0029\",\"#377eb8\",\"#66a61e\",\"#984ea3\",\"#00d2d5\",\"#ff7f00\",\"#af8d00\",\"#7f80cd\",\"#b3e900\",\"#c42e60\",\"#a65628\",\"#f781bf\",\"#8dd3c7\",\"#bebada\",\"#fb8072\",\"#80b1d3\",\"#fdb462\",\"#fccde5\",\"#bc80bd\",\"#ffed6f\",\"#c4eaff\",\"#cf8c00\",\"#1b9e77\",\"#d95f02\",\"#e7298a\",\"#e6ab02\",\"#a6761d\",\"#0097ff\",\"#00d067\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":408,"value":"import { sources, jhu_all_stats } from '@abenrob/covid-19-data-sources'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 33:"$32:body"