2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index | Adjacent | Observable"}] 31:T9dd,Military Action - [Israel military action against Iran before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-before-july) - [Israel military action on Yemen before June? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june) - [Israel military action against Iran before June? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-before-june) - [Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-by) Hamas Ceasefire or withdrawal - [Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-june-2025) - [Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-july-2025) - [Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-gaza-in-2025) - [Israel withdraws from Syria before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-syria-before-july) - [Israel withdraws from Lebanon before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-before-july) Diplomacy - [Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-in-2025) - [Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? (Kalshi)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxabrahamsa/abraham-accord-saudi-arabia) - [Will Israel and Syria normalize relations this year? (Kalshi)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxabrahamsy/syria-recognition) - [Israel x Egypt sever diplomatic relations before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-egypt-sever-diplomatic-relations-before-july) Territory Changes - [Will Israel annex Gazan territory before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-annex-gazan-territory-before-july) - [Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-annex-lebanese-territory-before-july) - [Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-annex-syrian-territory-before-july) Domestic Politics - [Netanyahu out in 2025? (Polymarket)](https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-in-2025) - [Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved this year? (Kalshi)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxknesset/knesset-dissolution)32:T17d5,// Create the Israel Conflict Risk Index Chart viewof israelConflictRiskChart = { // Function to determine width based on container size const getResponsiveWidth = () => { // Get the container width (default to 800 if not available) const containerWidth = width || 800; return Math.min(containerWidth, 800); // Cap at 800px max }; // Calculate responsive dimensions const chartWidth = getResponsiveWidth(); const chartHeight = chartWidth * 0.625; // Maintain aspect ratio (500/800 = 0.625) // Adjust font sizes based on width const titleSize = chartWidth < 500 ? 14 : 16; const subtitleSize = chartWidth < 500 ? 12 : 14; const labelSize = chartWidth < 500 ? 10 : 12; // Adjust margins for smaller screens const rightMargin = chartWidth < 500 ? 80 : 120; const leftMargin = chartWidth < 500 ? 40 : 60; const bottomMargin = chartWidth < 500 ? 30 : 40; const topMargin = chartWidth < 500 ? 30 : 40; // Adjust tick count for smaller screens const tickCount = chartWidth < 500 ? 4 : 8; // Create the basic chart using Plot const chart = Plot.plot({ title: "Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index", subtitle: "Based on weighted prediction markets for Israel's regional conflicts and actions", width: chartWidth, height: chartHeight, style: { fontSize: labelSize, ".plot-title": { fontSize: titleSize + "px" }, ".plot-subtitle": { fontSize: subtitleSize + "px" } }, x: { label: "Date", tickFormat: "%b %d", tickCount: tickCount, grid: true }, y: { label: "Risk Index (%)", domain: [0, 100], grid: true }, // Use responsive margins marginRight: rightMargin, marginLeft: leftMargin, marginBottom: bottomMargin, marginTop: topMargin, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0, 25, 50, 75, 100], { stroke: "#ccc", strokeDasharray: "3,3" }), // Line for the index - thinner on mobile Plot.line(israelRiskIndexData, { x: "date", y: "indexValue", stroke: "#E63946", // Red color for the index strokeWidth: chartWidth < 500 ? 2 : 3 }), // Dots for the index - smaller on mobile and fewer Plot.dot( israelRiskIndexData.filter( (d, i) => i % (chartWidth < 500 ? 10 : 5) === 0 ), { x: "date", y: "indexValue", fill: "#E63946", r: chartWidth < 500 ? 3 : 4, opacity: 0.8 } ), // End label for the index - only on larger screens ...(chartWidth >= 500 ? [ Plot.text( israelRiskIndexData.filter( (d, i) => i === israelRiskIndexData.length - 1 ), { x: "date", y: "indexValue", text: (d) => `${d.indexValue.toFixed(1)}%`, dx: chartWidth < 600 ? 30 : 50, fill: "#E63946", fontWeight: "bold", fontSize: chartWidth < 600 ? 12 : 14 } ) ] : []) ] }); // Determine legend font size const legendFontSize = chartWidth < 500 ? 11 : 10.5; // Calculate watermark position and size const watermarkTop = chartHeight / 2 + topMargin; const watermarkLeft = chartWidth / 2; const watermarkSize = chartWidth < 500 ? 30 : 60; // Create a container for the chart const chartContainer = html`

${chart}

ADJACENT

`; // Create legend items HTML for consistency with other charts const legendItemsHTML = `

Israel Geopolitical Risk Index

`; // Add legend to the chart if (chartWidth < 500) { // Mobile: Create a wrapper that includes both chart and legend below it const wrapper = html`

${chartContainer}

${html([legendItemsHTML])}

`; wrapper.value = chart; // Create a resize observer if (typeof ResizeObserver !== "undefined") { const observer = new ResizeObserver((entries) => { const containerWidth = entries[0].contentRect.width; if (Math.abs(containerWidth - chartWidth) > 20) { invalidation.then(() => observer.disconnect()); return wrapper; } }); observer.observe(wrapper); } return wrapper; } else { // Desktop: Add legend as an overlay const legendElement = html`

${html([legendItemsHTML])}

`; chartContainer.appendChild(legendElement); chartContainer.value = chart; // Create a resize observer if (typeof ResizeObserver !== "undefined") { const observer = new ResizeObserver((entries) => { const containerWidth = entries[0].contentRect.width; if (Math.abs(containerWidth - chartWidth) > 20) { invalidation.then(() => observer.disconnect()); return chartContainer; } }); observer.observe(chartContainer); } return chartContainer; } }33:Te46,// Modified fetchAdjacentMarketData with retry logic and throttling async function fetchAdjacentMarketData(adjMarketIds) { try { // Validate input if (!Array.isArray(adjMarketIds) || adjMarketIds.length === 0) { throw new Error("adjMarketIds must be a non-empty array"); } console.log( `Fetching liquidity data for ${adjMarketIds.length} markets...` ); // API token - this should be handled more securely in a production environment const apiToken = "38314d45-7899-4f51-a860-f6b898707a70"; // Helper function for retrying individual requests async function fetchWithRetry( marketId, maxRetries = 3, initialDelay = 100 ) { const url = `https://api.data.adj.news/api/markets/${marketId}`; let lastError; let delay = initialDelay; for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maxRetries; attempt++) { try { // Add a small delay between retry attempts if (attempt > 0) { await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, delay)); delay *= 0.5; // Moderate exponential backoff } const response = await fetch(url, { method: "GET", headers: { Authorization: `Bearer ${apiToken}`, "Content-Type": "application/json" } }); if (!response.ok) { throw new Error( `HTTP error! Status: ${response.status} for market ${marketId}` ); } const data = await response.json(); // Extract the needed data return { marketId: marketId, ticker: data.data.ticker, liquidity: data.data.liquidity, volume: data.data.volume, probability: data.data.probability, end_date: data.data.end_date }; } catch (error) { console.log( `Attempt ${attempt + 1} for ${marketId} failed: ${error.message}${ attempt < maxRetries - 1 ? ". Retrying..." : "" }` ); lastError = error; } } console.error( `All retry attempts failed for market ${marketId}:`, lastError ); return { marketId: marketId, error: lastError.message, liquidity: null, volume: null, probability: null, end_date: null }; } // Process markets in smaller batches to avoid overwhelming the API const batchSize = 3; // Process 3 markets at a time const results = []; for (let i = 0; i < adjMarketIds.length; i += batchSize) { console.log( `Processing batch ${Math.floor(i / batchSize) + 1} of ${Math.ceil( adjMarketIds.length / batchSize )}...` ); const batch = adjMarketIds.slice(i, i + batchSize); const batchPromises = batch.map((marketId) => fetchWithRetry(marketId)); // Wait for the current batch to complete const batchResults = await Promise.all(batchPromises); results.push(...batchResults); // Add a delay between batches to avoid rate limiting if (i + batchSize < adjMarketIds.length) { await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, 1500)); } } // Log summary const successCount = results.filter((r) => r.liquidity !== null).length; console.log( `Successfully fetched liquidity data for ${successCount} out of ${adjMarketIds.length} markets` ); return results; } catch (error) { console.error("Error in fetchLiquidityData:", error); return { error: error.message }; } }34:T13f0,function combineMarketDataWithPrices(adjacentMarketData, processedData) { // Create a mapping of market tickers to their metadata const marketMetadataMap = {}; // Convert market names from processed data to a format more similar to tickers const processedDataMarketMap = {}; // Map all market keys from processed data const marketKeysInProcessedData = new Set(); processedData.forEach(dayData => { Object.keys(dayData).forEach(key => { if (key !== 'date') marketKeysInProcessedData.add(key); }); }); console.log("Market keys in processedData:", Array.from(marketKeysInProcessedData)); // Create mappings based on market names and tickers adjacentMarketData.forEach(metadata => { const ticker = metadata.ticker.toLowerCase(); // Map for Military action against Iran July? if (ticker.includes("military-action") && ticker.includes("iran") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Military action against Iran July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Military action against Yemen June? if (ticker.includes("military-action") && ticker.includes("yemen") && ticker.includes("june")) { marketMetadataMap["Military action against Yemen June?"] = metadata; } // Map for Military action against Iran June? if (ticker.includes("military-action") && ticker.includes("iran") && ticker.includes("june")) { marketMetadataMap["Military action against Iran June?"] = metadata; } // Map for Military action against Turkey 2025? if (ticker.includes("turkey") && ticker.includes("clash")) { marketMetadataMap["Military action against Turkey 2025?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel x Hamas ceasefire June? if (ticker.includes("hamas") && ticker.includes("ceasefire") && ticker.includes("june")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel x Hamas ceasefire June?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel x Hamas ceasefire July? if (ticker.includes("hamas") && ticker.includes("ceasefire") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel x Hamas ceasefire July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel withdraws Gaza 2025? if (ticker.includes("withdraws") && ticker.includes("gaza") && ticker.includes("2025")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel withdraws Gaza 2025?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel withdraws Syria July? if (ticker.includes("withdraws") && ticker.includes("syria") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel withdraws Syria July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel withdraws Lebanon July?? if (ticker.includes("withdraws") && ticker.includes("lebanon") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel withdraws Lebanon July??"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel Saudi normalize relations 2025? if (ticker.includes("saudi") && ticker.includes("normalize") && ticker.includes("2025")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel Saudi normalize relations 2025?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel Egypt sever relations July? if (ticker.includes("egypt") && ticker.includes("sever") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel Egypt sever relations July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel annex Gazan territory July? if (ticker.includes("annex") && ticker.includes("gaza") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel annex Gazan territory July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel annex Labanese territory July? if (ticker.includes("annex") && ticker.includes("lebanese") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel annex Labanese territory July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Israel annex Syrian territory July? if (ticker.includes("annex") && ticker.includes("syrian") && ticker.includes("july")) { marketMetadataMap["Israel annex Syrian territory July?"] = metadata; } // Map for Netanyahu out 2025? if (ticker.includes("netanyahu") && ticker.includes("out") && ticker.includes("2025")) { marketMetadataMap["Netanyahu out 2025?"] = metadata; } }); // For debugging - print the final mapping console.log("Market metadata mapping keys:", Object.keys(marketMetadataMap)); // Now enhance the processed data with metadata const enhancedData = processedData.map(dayData => { const enhancedDayData = { date: dayData.date, marketValues: [] }; // For each market in the daily data Object.keys(dayData).forEach(key => { // Skip the date field if (key === 'date') return; // Find corresponding metadata const metadata = marketMetadataMap[key]; if (metadata) { enhancedDayData.marketValues.push({ name: key, probability: dayData[key], // The probability value from price history metadata: metadata // All the metadata }); } else { console.warn(`No metadata found for market: ${key}`); } }); return enhancedDayData; }); return enhancedData; }35:T60b,// Generate the Israel Risk Index, reusing existing functions completely function generateIsraelRiskIndex(processedData) { // This is essentially a wrapper for your existing calculateConflictRiskIndex function return processedData.map(dayData => { const date = dayData.date; let totalWeight = 0; let weightedSum = 0; // Calculate total liquidity across all markets for this day const totalLiquidity = dayData.marketValues.reduce( (sum, marketData) => sum + (marketData.metadata.liquidity || 0), 0 ); // For each market on this day dayData.marketValues.forEach(marketData => { // Skip if probability is null if (marketData.probability === null) return; const timeWeight = calculateTimeHorizonWeight(marketData.metadata.end_date, date); const liquidityWeight = calculateLiquidityWeight(marketData.metadata.liquidity, totalLiquidity); const severityWeight = calculateSeverityWeight(marketData.name); // Use your exact original formula const combinedWeight = (timeWeight * 0.4) + (liquidityWeight * 0.3) + (severityWeight * 0.3); // Weight the probability by the combined weight (no modifications needed) weightedSum += marketData.probability * combinedWeight; totalWeight += combinedWeight; }); // Calculate the final index value for this day const indexValue = totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : null; return { date: date, indexValue: indexValue }; }); }36:T3c1c,// Updated function to fetch and process price histories for multiple markets from both Polymarket and Adjacent API async function newFetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax( marketIds, marketNames, marketSources = [], adjacentApiKey = null ) { try { // Validate inputs if ( !Array.isArray(marketIds) || !Array.isArray(marketNames) || marketIds.length !== marketNames.length ) { throw new Error( "marketIds and marketNames must be arrays of the same length" ); } // If marketSources is not provided or is shorter than marketIds, fill with 'polymarket' as default const sources = [...marketSources]; while (sources.length < marketIds.length) { sources.push("polymarket"); } console.log("Fetching data for markets:", marketNames.join(", ")); console.log("Using sources:", sources.join(", ")); // Fetch raw data for all markets const fetchPromises = marketIds.map((marketId, index) => { const marketName = marketNames[index]; const source = sources[index]; // Different fetch logic based on the source if (source === "polymarket" || !source) { // Using "max" interval to get all available data for Polymarket const interval = "max"; const url = `https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=${marketId}&interval=${interval}`; return fetch(url, { headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json", "Cache-Control": "no-cache" } }) .then((response) => { if (!response.ok) { throw new Error( `HTTP error! Status: ${response.status} for market ${marketName}` ); } return response.json(); }) .then((data) => ({ marketId, marketName, source: "polymarket", data })) .catch((error) => { console.error( `Error fetching Polymarket market ${marketName}:`, error ); return { marketId, marketName, source: "polymarket", error: error.message }; }); } else if (source === "kalshi") { // Using the CORRECT Adjacent API endpoint for Kalshi markets const url = `https://api.data.adj.news/api/trade/price-history?market_id=${marketId}`; const headers = { "Content-Type": "application/json", "Cache-Control": "no-cache" }; // Add API key if provided if (adjacentApiKey) { headers["Authorization"] = `Bearer ${adjacentApiKey}`; console.log(`Using API key for Kalshi market ${marketName}`); } console.log(`Fetching Kalshi market ${marketName} from: ${url}`); return fetch(url, { method: "GET", headers: headers }) .then((response) => { if (!response.ok) { throw new Error( `HTTP error! Status: ${response.status} for market ${marketName}` ); } return response.json(); }) .then((data) => { console.log( `Received data for Kalshi market ${marketName}:`, data.data ? `${data.data.length} price points` : "No data array found" ); return { marketId, marketName, source: "kalshi", data }; }) .catch((error) => { console.error( `Error fetching Kalshi market ${marketName} from Adjacent API:`, error ); return { marketId, marketName, source: "kalshi", error: error.message }; }); } else { return Promise.resolve({ marketId, marketName, error: `Unknown source: ${source}` }); } }); // Wait for all fetches to complete const results = await Promise.all(fetchPromises); // Process each market's data to get daily closing prices const marketDailyPrices = {}; const marketCreationDates = {}; results.forEach((result) => { const { marketName, source, data, error } = result; if (error || !data) { console.warn( `No valid data for market ${marketName}: ${error || "unknown error"}` ); marketDailyPrices[marketName] = new Map(); return; } // Different processing logic based on the source if (source === "polymarket") { if (!data?.history || data.history.length === 0) { console.warn(`No history data for Polymarket market ${marketName}`); marketDailyPrices[marketName] = new Map(); return; } console.log( `Processing ${data.history.length} price points for ${marketName} (Polymarket)` ); // Find market creation date from earliest data point if (data.history.length > 0) { const timestamps = data.history.map((point) => point.t); const earliestTimestamp = Math.min(...timestamps); const creationDate = new Date(earliestTimestamp * 1000); // Store creation date with no time component (UTC date) const creationDateUTC = new Date( Date.UTC( creationDate.getUTCFullYear(), creationDate.getUTCMonth(), creationDate.getUTCDate() ) ); marketCreationDates[marketName] = creationDateUTC; console.log( `Market ${marketName} creation date:`, creationDateUTC.toISOString().split("T")[0] ); } // Group prices by day and get closing price for each day (Polymarket format) const pricesByDay = {}; data.history.forEach((point) => { // Convert timestamp to date (assuming timestamp is in seconds) const date = new Date(point.t * 1000); // Create a UTC date key for consistent timezone handling const dayKey = `${date.getUTCFullYear()}-${String( date.getUTCMonth() + 1 ).padStart(2, "0")}-${String(date.getUTCDate()).padStart(2, "0")}`; if (!pricesByDay[dayKey]) { pricesByDay[dayKey] = []; } pricesByDay[dayKey].push({ timestamp: point.t, price: point.p }); }); // For each day, get the closing price (last price of the day) const dailyClosingPrices = new Map(); Object.entries(pricesByDay).forEach(([day, prices]) => { // Sort by timestamp (latest last) const sortedPrices = prices.sort((a, b) => a.timestamp - b.timestamp); // Take the latest price of the day const latestPrice = sortedPrices[sortedPrices.length - 1]; dailyClosingPrices.set(day, latestPrice.price); }); // Store the daily prices for this market marketDailyPrices[marketName] = dailyClosingPrices; console.log( `Processed ${dailyClosingPrices.size} daily prices for ${marketName}` ); } else if (source === "kalshi") { // Process Adjacent API data for Kalshi markets if (!data?.data || data.data.length === 0) { console.warn( `No price data for Kalshi market ${marketName} from Adjacent API` ); marketDailyPrices[marketName] = new Map(); return; } console.log( `Processing ${data.data.length} price points for ${marketName} (Kalshi via Adjacent API)` ); // Find market creation date from earliest data point if (data.data.length > 0) { // Adjacent API uses timestamps in seconds const timestamps = data.data.map((point) => point.timestamp); const earliestTimestamp = Math.min(...timestamps); const creationDate = new Date(earliestTimestamp * 1000); // Store creation date with no time component (UTC date) const creationDateUTC = new Date( Date.UTC( creationDate.getUTCFullYear(), creationDate.getUTCMonth(), creationDate.getUTCDate() ) ); marketCreationDates[marketName] = creationDateUTC; console.log( `Market ${marketName} creation date:`, creationDateUTC.toISOString().split("T")[0] ); } // Group prices by day and get closing price for each day const pricesByDay = {}; data.data.forEach((point) => { // Convert timestamp to date (timestamp is in seconds in Adjacent API) const date = new Date(point.timestamp * 1000); // Create a UTC date key for consistent timezone handling const dayKey = `${date.getUTCFullYear()}-${String( date.getUTCMonth() + 1 ).padStart(2, "0")}-${String(date.getUTCDate()).padStart(2, "0")}`; if (!pricesByDay[dayKey]) { pricesByDay[dayKey] = []; } // Use the price directly from the API (already in 0-100 range) const price = point.price / 100; // Normalize to 0-1 for consistent format pricesByDay[dayKey].push({ timestamp: point.timestamp, price: price }); }); // For each day, get the closing price (last price of the day) const dailyClosingPrices = new Map(); Object.entries(pricesByDay).forEach(([day, prices]) => { // Sort by timestamp (latest last) const sortedPrices = prices.sort((a, b) => a.timestamp - b.timestamp); // Take the latest price of the day const latestPrice = sortedPrices[sortedPrices.length - 1]; dailyClosingPrices.set(day, latestPrice.price); }); // Store the daily prices for this market marketDailyPrices[marketName] = dailyClosingPrices; console.log( `Processed ${dailyClosingPrices.size} daily prices for ${marketName} - sample:`, Array.from(dailyClosingPrices.entries()).slice(0, 2) ); } }); // Determine the full date range const today = new Date(); const todayUTC = new Date( Date.UTC(today.getUTCFullYear(), today.getUTCMonth(), today.getUTCDate()) ); // Find the earliest market creation date let startDate = todayUTC; // Check if we have any market creation dates if (Object.keys(marketCreationDates).length === 0) { console.warn( "No market creation dates found, using today minus 180 days as start date" ); // Fallback to 180 days ago if no market creation dates startDate = new Date(todayUTC); startDate.setDate(startDate.getDate() - 180); } else { // Use the earliest market creation date Object.values(marketCreationDates).forEach((date) => { if (date && date < startDate) { startDate = date; } }); } console.log("Start date:", startDate.toISOString().split("T")[0]); console.log("End date (today):", todayUTC.toISOString().split("T")[0]); // Generate all dates in the range const allDates = []; const currentDate = new Date(startDate); while (currentDate <= todayUTC) { const dateStr = currentDate.toISOString().split("T")[0]; allDates.push(dateStr); // Move to next day currentDate.setUTCDate(currentDate.getUTCDate() + 1); } console.log(`Generated ${allDates.length} days in date range`); // Fill in missing prices by carrying forward the last known price const filledMarketPrices = {}; Object.entries(marketDailyPrices).forEach(([marketName, priceMap]) => { filledMarketPrices[marketName] = new Map(); const creationDate = marketCreationDates[marketName]; // If empty market, skip if (!priceMap || priceMap.size === 0) { console.warn(`No price data to fill for ${marketName}`); return; } // Sort the existing dates const existingDates = Array.from(priceMap.keys()).sort(); // If we have no data, skip if (existingDates.length === 0) { console.warn(`No existing dates for ${marketName}`); return; } console.log( `${marketName} has data for ${existingDates.length} days, first:`, existingDates[0], "last:", existingDates[existingDates.length - 1] ); let lastPrice = null; // Fill in prices for all dates in our range allDates.forEach((dateStr) => { const currentDate = new Date(dateStr); if (priceMap.has(dateStr)) { // We have data for this day lastPrice = priceMap.get(dateStr); filledMarketPrices[marketName].set(dateStr, lastPrice); } else if ( lastPrice !== null && creationDate && currentDate >= creationDate ) { // Carry forward last known price if after market creation filledMarketPrices[marketName].set(dateStr, lastPrice); } else { // No data yet for this market filledMarketPrices[marketName].set(dateStr, null); } }); console.log( `Filled in prices for ${marketName}, now have ${filledMarketPrices[marketName].size} days` ); }); // Create the final dataset in the requested format const processedHistory = allDates.map((dateStr) => { // Create Date object for midnight UTC, then adjust to local time for display const utcDate = new Date(dateStr); // For display in Observable, adjust to local timezone const date = new Date(utcDate.getTime()); const result = { date: date }; // Add each market's price for this date marketNames.forEach((marketName) => { if ( filledMarketPrices[marketName] && filledMarketPrices[marketName].has(dateStr) ) { const price = filledMarketPrices[marketName].get(dateStr); // Multiply by 100 to match your format result[marketName] = price !== null ? price * 100 : null; } else { // Handle markets with no data result[marketName] = null; } }); return result; }); console.log(`Final processed dataset has ${processedHistory.length} days`); // Do a final check of the output if (processedHistory.length > 0) { console.log("Sample output data points:"); console.log("First:", processedHistory[0]); console.log("Last:", processedHistory[processedHistory.length - 1]); // Check for any NaN values const hasNaN = processedHistory.some((entry) => { return Object.values(entry).some( (val) => val !== null && typeof val === "number" && isNaN(val) ); }); if (hasNaN) { console.warn("Warning: NaN values detected in the processed data!"); } } return processedHistory; } catch (error) { console.error("Error in fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax:", error); return { error: error.message }; } }37:[] 2f:{"id":"4c08b7fec0cdf008","slug":"israel-military-geopolitical-risk-index","title":"Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index","thumbnail":"1bea08a73f4181920257395ad2eecfc6f0b9ad00df7478b28b07c29b7d51e80b","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2025-05-03T12:34:50.614Z","update_time":"$D2025-05-05T17:34:25.174Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2025-05-04T14:05:48.539Z","fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e34bfda26f2a3e11bf04364a685b422fda7ad5630974dadb7c20559fdf8ea883","tier":"pro_2024"},"version":696,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"4d75e52b48086387","login":"dougiebuckets","name":"dougiebuckets","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d55596be54f2db1cfdf1dd98b171dbdcc2e8c228c20ce7d20d50902a10772d44","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e34bfda26f2a3e11bf04364a685b422fda7ad5630974dadb7c20559fdf8ea883","tier":"pro_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"4d75e52b48086387","login":"dougiebuckets","name":"dougiebuckets","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d55596be54f2db1cfdf1dd98b171dbdcc2e8c228c20ce7d20d50902a10772d44","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"The goal of the following is to dynamically quantify military and geopolitical risks associated with Israel","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":18,"value":"First, we will identify military and geopolitical markets relevant to Israel and assign them to variables","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":80,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":535,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":556,"value":"┏━┫ Markets and Notes associated with index ┣━┓","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":84,"value":"We'll assign each market ID to variables and get their max prices histories (i.e., since the inception of the markets) using our `fetchProcessedMarketHistories` function. Worth noting, for some markets we are focused on YES outcomes while others we are focused on NO depending on the extent to which the outcome will increase Israel's military and geopolitical risk. E.g., YES re: military action with Iran before July will increase risk as will NO when it comes to the likelihood of a ceasefire being reached before July.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":337,"value":"Import Functions","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":29,"value":"import {AdjacentChart} from \"@adjacent/reusable-adjacent-charting-template\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":339,"value":"import {fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax} from \"@adjacent/india-pakistan-risk-index\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":518,"value":"import {fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesLastWeek} from \"@adjacent/india-pakistan-risk-index\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":402,"value":"import {calculateTimeHorizonWeight} from \"@adjacent/india-pakistan-risk-index\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":405,"value":"import {calculateLiquidityWeight} from \"@adjacent/india-pakistan-risk-index\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":549,"value":"import {calculateSeverityWeight} from \"@adjacent/india-pakistan-risk-index\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":528,"value":"import {calculateConflictRiskIndex} from \"@adjacent/india-pakistan-risk-index\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":86,"value":"## Military Action (YES probabilities)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":105,"value":"israelMilitaryActionIranJulyId = \"109681959945973300464568698402968596289258214226684818748321941747028805721376\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":418,"value":"indiaInvadePakistanJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_military_action_against_iran\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":203,"value":"israelMilitaryActionIranJulyName = \"Military action against Iran July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"israelMilitaryActionYemenJuneId = \"50254422505990269748457826610509971158629451055430507470776185535371496431782\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":421,"value":"indiaInvadeYemenJuneAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_military_action_on_yemen_bef\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":205,"value":"israelMilitaryActionYemenJuneName = \"Military action against Yemen June?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":107,"value":"israelMilitaryActionIranJuneId = \"44939317539819072767368114561139572498853620329975668979095413555067370578574\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":423,"value":"indiaInvadeIranJuneAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_military_action_against_iran\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":208,"value":"israelMilitaryActionIranJuneName = \"Military action against Iran June?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":111,"value":"israelMilitaryActionTurkey2025Id = \"90152277337874942440303060610624687106633344912268300455642052698070927029588\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":425,"value":"indiaTurkeyClash2025AdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_x_turkey_military_clash_by\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":210,"value":"israelMilitaryActionTurkey2025Name = \"Military action against Turkey 2025?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":197,"value":"militaryActionIds = [israelMilitaryActionIranJulyId, israelMilitaryActionYemenJuneId, israelMilitaryActionIranJuneId, israelMilitaryActionTurkey2025Id]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":199,"value":"militaryMarketNames = [israelMilitaryActionIranJulyName, israelMilitaryActionYemenJuneName, israelMilitaryActionIranJuneName, israelMilitaryActionTurkey2025Name]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":343,"value":"militaryProcessedData = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(militaryActionIds, militaryMarketNames);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":347,"value":"// Create the chart using our template\nviewof chartMilitaryMarkets = AdjacentChart({\n title: `Israel Military Action Markets`,\n subtitle: \"via Polymarket\",\n data: militaryProcessedData,\n seriesNames: Object.keys(militaryProcessedData[0]).filter((key) => key !== \"date\"),\n seriesColors: [\"#E63946\", \"#1D3557\", \"#2A9D8F\", \"#F4A261\"],\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"Probability (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n width: width,\n aspectRatio: 0.625,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: false,\n showGrid: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":96,"value":"## Hamas Ceasefire or withdrawal (NO probabilities)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":121,"value":"israelHamasCeasfireJuneId = \"38858878786247564326973345904510355533469933812000565723483703458582349243088\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":427,"value":"israelHamasCeasfireJuneAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_x_hamas_ceasefire_before_jun\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":218,"value":"israelHamasCeasfireJuneName = \"Israel x Hamas ceasefire June?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":123,"value":"israelHamasCeasfireJulyId = \"100347464715449771490006589108592744026603031689548055670736234120206478333879\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":429,"value":"israelHamasCeasfireJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_x_hamas_ceasefire_before_jul\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":220,"value":"israelHamasCeasfireJulyName = \"Israel x Hamas ceasefire July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":125,"value":"israelWithdrawsGaza2025Id = \"41158123627243409797280482436177040010605365778006722266467179035594283771722\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":431,"value":"israelWithdrawGaza2025AdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_withdraws_from_gaza_in_2025\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":222,"value":"israelWithdrawsGaza2025Name = \"Israel withdraws Gaza 2025?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"israelWithdrawsSyriaJulyId = \"78602549391292751133402039618064785446874489779455362778309783066670304961041\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":433,"value":"israelWithdrawSyriaJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_withdraws_from_syria_before_\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":228,"value":"israelWithdrawsSyriaJulyName = \"Israel withdraws Syria July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":129,"value":"israelWithdrawsLebanonJulyId = \"100790032800691860793647298842183462755989306616868916970036542200431902308226\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":435,"value":"israelWithdrawLebanonJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_withdraws_from_lebanon_befor\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":232,"value":"israelWithdrawsLebanonJulyName = \"Israel withdraws Lebanon July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":280,"value":"ceasefireMarketIds = [israelHamasCeasfireJuneId, israelHamasCeasfireJulyId, israelWithdrawsGaza2025Id, israelWithdrawsSyriaJulyId, israelWithdrawsLebanonJulyId]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":282,"value":"ceasefireMarketNames = [israelHamasCeasfireJuneName, israelHamasCeasfireJulyName, israelWithdrawsGaza2025Name, israelWithdrawsSyriaJulyName, israelWithdrawsLebanonJulyName]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":352,"value":"ceasefireProcessedData = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(ceasefireMarketIds, ceasefireMarketNames);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":365,"value":"// Create the chart using our template\nviewof chartCeasefireMarkets = AdjacentChart({\n title: `Israel Ceasefire and Withdrawal Markets`,\n subtitle: \"via Polymarket\",\n data: ceasefireProcessedData,\n seriesNames: Object.keys(ceasefireProcessedData[0]).filter((key) => key !== \"date\"),\n seriesColors: [\"#E63946\", \"#1D3557\", \"#2A9D8F\", \"#F4A261\"],\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"Probability (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n width: width,\n aspectRatio: 0.625,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: false,\n showGrid: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":98,"value":"## Diplomacy","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":164,"value":"(NO probability)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":136,"value":"israelSaudiNormalize2025Id = \"79677612226873909610081217802307527236651011826119229039973799353141298472061\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":437,"value":"israelSaudiNormalize2025AdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_and_saudi_arabia_normalize_r\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":237,"value":"israelSaudiNormalize2025Name = \"Israel Saudi normalize relations 2025?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":166,"value":"(YES probability)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":138,"value":"israelEgyptSeverRelationsJulyId = \"57860817450609600275111374531983384272064346967841346774968197082595258636599\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":439,"value":"israelEgyptSever2025AdjId = \"adj_polymarket_israel_x_egypt_sever_diplomatic_rel\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":241,"value":"israelEgyptSeverRelationsJulyIdName = \"Israel Egypt sever relations July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":293,"value":"diplomacyMarketIds = [israelSaudiNormalize2025Id, israelEgyptSeverRelationsJulyId]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":295,"value":"diplomacyMarketNames = [israelSaudiNormalize2025Name, israelEgyptSeverRelationsJulyIdName]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":356,"value":"diplomacyProcessedData = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(diplomacyMarketIds, diplomacyMarketNames);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":370,"value":"// Create the chart using our template\nviewof chartDiplomacyMarkets = AdjacentChart({\n title: `Israel Diplomacy Markets`,\n subtitle: \"via Polymarket\",\n data: diplomacyProcessedData,\n seriesNames: Object.keys(diplomacyProcessedData[0]).filter((key) => key !== \"date\"),\n seriesColors: [\"#E63946\", \"#1D3557\", \"#2A9D8F\", \"#F4A261\"],\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"Probability (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n width: width,\n aspectRatio: 0.625,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: false,\n showGrid: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":100,"value":"## Territory Changes (YES probabilities)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":146,"value":"israelAnnexGazanTerritoryJulyId = \"47225298197508072220117363898348391007554094040987864778489510937056918349900\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":465,"value":"israelAnnexGazaJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_will_israel_annex_gazan_territory_b\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":245,"value":"israelAnnexGazanTerritoryJulyName = \"Israel annex Gazan territory July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":151,"value":"israelAnnexLabaneseTerritoryJulyId = \"62957566661271395539549196720501333053915253177729539587658091080368844823246\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":469,"value":"israelAnnexLebanonJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_will_israel_annex_lebanese_territor\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":249,"value":"israelAnnexLabaneseTerritoryJulyName = \"Israel annex Labanese territory July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":188,"value":"israelAnnexSyrianTerritoryJulyId = \"50260205708056225066385878601688187239020228012031593657011528858770575017167\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":474,"value":"israelAnnexSyrianTerritoryJulyAdjId = \"adj_polymarket_will_israel_annex_syrian_territory_\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":252,"value":"israelAnnexSyrianTerritoryJulyName = \"Israel annex Syrian territory July?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":301,"value":"territoryMarketIds = [israelAnnexGazanTerritoryJulyId, israelAnnexLabaneseTerritoryJulyId, israelAnnexSyrianTerritoryJulyId]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":303,"value":"territoryMarketNames = [israelAnnexGazanTerritoryJulyName, israelAnnexLabaneseTerritoryJulyName, israelAnnexSyrianTerritoryJulyName]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":359,"value":"territoryProcessedData = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(territoryMarketIds, territoryMarketNames);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":375,"value":"// Create the chart using our template\nviewof territoryMarkets = AdjacentChart({\n title: `Israel Territory Changes Markets`,\n subtitle: \"via Polymarket\",\n data: territoryProcessedData,\n seriesNames: Object.keys(territoryProcessedData[0]).filter((key) => key !== \"date\"),\n seriesColors: [\"#E63946\", \"#1D3557\", \"#2A9D8F\", \"#F4A261\"],\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"Probability (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n width: width,\n aspectRatio: 0.625,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: false,\n showGrid: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":102,"value":"## Domestic Politics (YES probabilities)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":154,"value":"netanyahuOut2025Id = \"82262334590322112030479175248768626867077550633396243763664995176806543239207\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":476,"value":"netanyahuOut2025AdjId = \"adj_polymarket_netanyahu_out_in_2025\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":255,"value":"netanyahuOut2025Name = \"Netanyahu out 2025?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":309,"value":"domesticIds = [netanyahuOut2025Id]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":311,"value":"domesticNames = [netanyahuOut2025Name]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":362,"value":"domesticProcessedData = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(domesticIds, domesticNames);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":382,"value":"// Create the chart using our template\nviewof domesticMarkets = AdjacentChart({\n title: `Israel Domestic Politics Markets`,\n subtitle: \"via Polymarket\",\n data: domesticProcessedData,\n seriesNames: Object.keys(domesticProcessedData[0]).filter((key) => key !== \"date\"),\n seriesColors: [\"#E63946\", \"#1D3557\", \"#2A9D8F\", \"#F4A261\"],\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"Probability (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n width: width,\n aspectRatio: 0.625,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: false,\n showGrid: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":316,"value":"Now, let's go ahead and consolidate the market ID and market name arrays","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":318,"value":"allMarketIds = [...militaryActionIds, ...ceasefireMarketIds, ...diplomacyMarketIds, ...territoryMarketIds, ...domesticIds]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":479,"value":"allAdjIds = [indiaInvadePakistanJulyAdjId, indiaInvadeYemenJuneAdjId, indiaInvadeIranJuneAdjId, indiaTurkeyClash2025AdjId, israelHamasCeasfireJuneAdjId, israelHamasCeasfireJulyAdjId, israelWithdrawGaza2025AdjId, israelWithdrawSyriaJulyAdjId, israelWithdrawLebanonJulyAdjId, israelSaudiNormalize2025AdjId, israelEgyptSever2025AdjId, israelAnnexGazaJulyAdjId, israelAnnexLebanonJulyAdjId, israelAnnexSyrianTerritoryJulyAdjId, netanyahuOut2025AdjId]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":320,"value":"allMarketNames = [...militaryMarketNames, ...ceasefireMarketNames, ...diplomacyMarketNames, ...territoryMarketNames, ...domesticNames]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":391,"value":"allProcessedData = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(allMarketIds, allMarketNames);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":395,"value":"// Create the chart using our template\nviewof allMarkets = AdjacentChart({\n title: `Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Markets`,\n subtitle: \"via Polymarket\",\n data: allProcessedData,\n seriesNames: Object.keys(allProcessedData[0]).filter((key) => key !== \"date\"),\n seriesColors: [\"#E63946\", \"#1D3557\", \"#2A9D8F\", \"#F4A261\"],\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"Probability (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n width: width,\n aspectRatio: 0.625,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: false,\n showGrid: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":413,"value":"

Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":484,"value":"Get and Process Data for Index","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":486,"value":"Let's use our `fetchAdjacentMarketData` function to get the data we need to build our index (i.e., end dates, volume, and liquidity)\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":561,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":491,"value":"adjacentMarketData = fetchAdjacentMarketData(allAdjIds)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":498,"value":"Let's use our `combineMarketDataWithPrices` function to merges this market metadata with the corresponding price histories for each market\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":514,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":508,"value":"processedDataStructure = combineMarketDataWithPrices(adjacentMarketData, allProcessedData)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":415,"value":"The weighted index dynamically captures Israel's military and geopolitical risk. It uses the following for weighting:\n\nTime Horizon: Near-term events weighted higher\nImpact Severity: More significant impacts weighted higher\nMarket Liquidity and Volume: Markets with more liquidity and volume given preference","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":524,"value":"Calculate the Weighted Index","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":531,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":540,"value":"israelRiskIndexData = generateIsraelRiskIndex(processedDataStructure, adjacentMarketData);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":579,"value":"## Kalshi Markets","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":581,"value":"Diplomacy\n- [Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? (Kalshi)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxabrahamsa/abraham-accord-saudi-arabia)\n- [Will Israel and Syria normalize relations this year? (Kalshi)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxabrahamsy/syria-recognition)\n\nDomestic Politics\n- [Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved this year? (Kalshi)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxknesset/knesset-dissolution)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":584,"value":"We now need to get prices histories and metadata for these Kalshi markets from the Adjacent API","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":620,"value":"israelSaudiNormalize2027MarketId = \"KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":586,"value":"israelSaudiNormalize2027AdjId = \"adj_kalshi_kxabrahamsa_27_jan01\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":589,"value":"israelSaudiNormalize2027Name = \"Israel-Saudi normalize relations 2027?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":623,"value":"##########################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":629,"value":"israelSyriaNormalize2025MarketId = \"KXABRAHAMSY-26-JAN01\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":591,"value":"israelSyriaNormalize2025AdjId = \"adj_kalshi_kxabrahamq_27_jan01\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":594,"value":"israelSyriaNormalize2025Name = \"Israel-Syria normalize relations 2025?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":627,"value":"##########################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":633,"value":"israelParlimentDissolvedMarketId = \"KXKNESSET-26-JAN01\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":605,"value":"israelParlimentDissolvedAdjId = \"adj_kalshi_kxknesset_26_jan01\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":608,"value":"israelParlimentDissolvedName = \"Israel parliment dissolved 2025?\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":648,"value":"##########################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":663,"value":"kalshiMarketIds = [\n israelSaudiNormalize2027MarketId,\n israelSyriaNormalize2025MarketId,\n israelParlimentDissolvedMarketId\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":666,"value":"kalshiMarketNames = [\n israelSaudiNormalize2027Name,\n israelSyriaNormalize2025Name,\n israelParlimentDissolvedName\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":661,"value":"##########################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":674,"value":"marketSources = [\"kalshi\", \"kalshi\", \"kalshi\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":677,"value":"##########################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":650,"value":"Now we'll use a function to fetch market price histories using the Adjacent price history API (https://docs.adj.news/api-trade-price-history). The goal is to have the output formatted to the `fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax` function.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":688,"value":"adjacentApiKey = \"38314d45-7899-4f51-a860-f6b898707a70\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":671,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":659,"value":"kalshiProcessedData = {\n return await newFetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax(\n kalshiMarketIds,\n kalshiMarketNames,\n marketSources\n );\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W37","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 30:"$2f:body"