2a:null 2b:["$","title",null,{"children":"UPFI | Adjacent | Observable"}] 30:T477,index = { const fetchData = async (retries = 5) => { try { const response = await fetch( `https://api.data.adj.news/api/indices/6494952a-6e65-4ad0-87b4-973eaf7dc714/value/intraday?hours=24&api_key=${apiKey}` ); const result = await response.json(); // Extract the data array from the response object const data = result?.data || []; if (!Array.isArray(data) || data.length === 0) { if (retries > 0) { console.log(`No data in response, ${retries} retries left...`); await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 3000)); return fetchData(retries - 1); } else { return []; // Give up after 5 attempts } } return data; // Return the data array, not the full response object } catch (error) { if (retries > 0) { console.log(`Fetch failed, ${retries} retries left...`); await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 3000)); return fetchData(retries - 1); } else { return []; // Give up after 5 attempts } } }; return fetchData(); }31:T549,indices = { const API_BASE = "https://api.data.adj.news/api/indices"; // First, fetch all indices const indicesData = await fetch(`${API_BASE}?api_key=${apiKey}`).then((response) => response.json()) console.log(indicesData); const results = []; // Then fetch current value for each index for (const index of indicesData.data) { try { const response = await fetch( `${API_BASE}/${index.index_id}/value?api_key=${apiKey}` ); if (!response.ok) { throw new Error(`HTTP error! status: ${response.status}`); } const valueData = await response.json(); results.push({ ...index, currentValue: { date: valueData.data?.date, value: valueData.data?.value } }); await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, 100)); } catch (error) { console.error(`Error fetching value for index ${index.index_id}:`, error); results.push({ ...index, currentValue: null, error: error.message }); } } return { data: results, meta: { totalIndices: indicesData.data.length, successfulFetches: results.filter((r) => r.currentValue && !r.error) .length, failedFetches: results.filter((r) => r.error).length, timestamp: new Date().toISOString() } }; }32:Tbc6,

UPFI Kalshi Political Indices - Current Values
Presidential	${indices.data.find(i => i.name === 'upfi_president_kalshi').currentValue.value.toFixed(2)}%
Senate	${indices.data.find(i => i.name === 'upfi_senate_kalshi').currentValue.value.toFixed(2)}%
House	${indices.data.find(i => i.name === 'upfi_house_kalshi').currentValue.value.toFixed(2)}%
Governor	${indices.data.find(i => i.name === 'upfi_governor_kalshi').currentValue.value.toFixed(2)}%
Mayoral	${indices.data.find(i => i.name === 'upfi_mayoral_kalshi').currentValue.value.toFixed(2)}%
UPFI Kalshi (Composite)	${indices.data.find(i => i.name === 'upfi_kalshi').currentValue.value.toFixed(2)}%

33:Tb50,index_chart = { const lastValue = index[index.length - 1].value; const lineColor = lastValue > 100 ? "red" : "blue"; const index_chart = Plot.plot({ title: "UPFI Index", subtitle: "by Adjacent via Kalshi markets", width: 900, height: 540, marginLeft: 60, marginRight: 40, marginTop: 40, marginBottom: 60, x: { type: "time", label: "Time", tickFormat: "%H:%M", ticks: d3.timeHour.every(1) }, y: { grid: true, domain: [90, 110], ticks: d3.range(90, 110, 5) }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0]), // Dotted line at 100 for "Balanced" Plot.ruleY([100], { stroke: "gray", strokeDasharray: "5,5", strokeWidth: 2, opacity: 0.7 }), // "Balanced" label Plot.text(["Politically Balanced"], { x: new Date(index[Math.floor(index.length * 0.85)].date_iso), // Position near the right side y: 100.5, // Slightly above the line fontSize: 12, fill: "gray", fontWeight: "bold", textAnchor: "middle" }), Plot.lineY(index, { x: (d) => new Date(d.date_iso), y: "value", stroke: lineColor, strokeWidth: 3, tip: true, title: (d) => `${d3.timeFormat("%B %d, %Y %H:%M")( new Date(d.date_iso) )}\nValue: ${d.value.toFixed(2)}` }), // Centered ADJACENT watermark Plot.text(["ADJACENT"], { x: new Date( (new Date(index[0].date_iso).getTime() + new Date(index[index.length - 1].date_iso).getTime()) / 2 ), y: 100, // Center the watermark at 100 (middle of 90-110 range) fontSize: 60, opacity: 0.1, fontWeight: "bold", textAnchor: "middle" }), // Republican arrow (pointing up) above the balanced line Plot.text(["↑"], { x: new Date(index[Math.floor(index.length * 0.98)].date_iso), y: 101.2, fontSize: 16, fill: "red", fontWeight: "bold", textAnchor: "middle" }), Plot.text(["Republican"], { x: new Date(index[Math.floor(index.length * 0.98)].date_iso), y: 102, fontSize: 10, fill: "red", fontWeight: "bold", textAnchor: "middle" }), // Democrat arrow (pointing down) below the balanced line Plot.text(["↓"], { x: new Date(index[Math.floor(index.length * 0.98)].date_iso), y: 98.8, fontSize: 16, fill: "blue", fontWeight: "bold", textAnchor: "middle" }), Plot.text(["Democrat"], { x: new Date(index[Math.floor(index.length * 0.98)].date_iso), y: 98, fontSize: 10, fill: "blue", fontWeight: "bold", textAnchor: "middle" }) ] }) return index_chart; }34:T472,constituents = { const fetchData = async (retries = 5) => { try { const response = await fetch( "https://api.data.adj.news/api/indices/6494952a-6e65-4ad0-87b4-973eaf7dc714/value?full=true" ); const result = await response.json(); // Extract the data array from the response object const data = result?.data?.constituents || []; if (!Array.isArray(data) || data.length === 0) { if (retries > 0) { console.log(`No data in response, ${retries} retries left...`); await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 3000)); return fetchData(retries - 1); } else { return []; // Give up after 5 attempts } } return data; // Return the data array, not the full response object } catch (error) { if (retries > 0) { console.log(`Fetch failed, ${retries} retries left...`); await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 3000)); return fetchData(retries - 1); } else { return []; // Give up after 5 attempts } } }; return fetchData(); }35:[] 2e:{"id":"cb2c33bd6c64e31c","slug":"upfi","title":"UPFI","thumbnail":"79352c3f476f3dd5579b529d4b8d63bde8f2601a57ef5cc7f56c7285321d73de","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2025-09-18T11:18:03.991Z","update_time":"$D2025-10-20T00:37:36.742Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2025-09-18T11:18:20.916Z","fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e34bfda26f2a3e11bf04364a685b422fda7ad5630974dadb7c20559fdf8ea883","tier":"pro_2024"},"version":208,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"aba7890439460d43","login":"lucas-kohorst","name":"Lucas Kohorst","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/2db408c15d16b77cf6aac267720ffca84ca65b14f65a76f1bd982ec019d61069","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e34bfda26f2a3e11bf04364a685b422fda7ad5630974dadb7c20559fdf8ea883","tier":"pro_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"aba7890439460d43","login":"lucas-kohorst","name":"Lucas Kohorst","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/2db408c15d16b77cf6aac267720ffca84ca65b14f65a76f1bd982ec019d61069","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":{"id":"bbed81af78c990a9","slug":"upfi","title":"UPFI","owner":{"id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"UPFI","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# UPFI","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":96,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":90,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"readout","database":"$undefined"},{"id":25,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":38,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":42,"value":"constituent_data = constituents","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":50,"value":"data = {\n return constituent_data.map(item => {\n // Remove 'adj_kalshi_' prefix and '_r' suffix, then transform format\n const ticker = item.adj_ticker\n .replace(/^adj_kalshi_/, '')\n .replace(/_r$/, '')\n .toUpperCase()\n .replace(/_/g, '-') + '-R';\n \n return {\n ...item,\n kalshi_ticker: ticker,\n kalshi_link: `https://kalshi.com/?search=${ticker}`\n };\n });\n }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":45,"value":"viewof table = Inputs.table(data, {\n columns: [\n \"kalshi_ticker\",\n \"weight\",\n ],\n header: {\n kalshi_ticker: \"Kalshi Ticker\",\n weight: \"Weight (%)\"\n },\n format: {\n kalshi_ticker: (ticker, i) => htl.html`${ticker}`,\n weight: d => (d).toFixed(2) + \"%\",\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":139,"value":"riskMetrics = {\n // Calculate 5-minute returns\n const returns = [];\n for (let i = 1; i < index.length; i++) {\n returns.push((index[i].value / index[i-1].value) - 1);\n }\n \n // Volatility calculations\n const mean = returns.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / returns.length;\n const variance = returns.reduce((sum, ret) => sum + Math.pow(ret - mean, 2), 0) / returns.length;\n const vol5min = Math.sqrt(variance);\n \n // Annualization factors (5-min intervals)\n const periodsPerDay = 288; // 24 * 60 / 5\n const periodsPerMonth = periodsPerDay * 30;\n const periodsPerYear = periodsPerDay * 365;\n \n const vol30day = vol5min * Math.sqrt(periodsPerMonth);\n const vol90day = vol5min * Math.sqrt(periodsPerMonth * 3);\n const volAnnualized = vol5min * Math.sqrt(periodsPerYear);\n \n return ({\n vol30day: (vol30day * 100).toFixed(4) + '%',\n vol90day: (vol90day * 100).toFixed(4) + '%',\n volAnnualized: (volAnnualized * 100).toFixed(4) + '%'\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":203,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":173,"value":"apiKey = 'beta_3ZG5gqmD1TEU7wEbREjnynNh'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W35","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2f:"$2e:body"