2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"US Tariff Index: Trending Hawkish or Dovish? | Adjacent | Observable"}] 31:T1c7e,Trump Tariff Policy Markets If the probability of YES outcomes increases associated with Trump imposing large tariffs in 2025 or tariffs on Apply in July, a more hawkish tariff policy is implied. Similarly, if the probability of NO outcomes increases associated with Trump lowering tariffs on Canada, removing reciprocal tariffs, or removing the 10% blanket tariff rate, this implies a more hawkish tariff policy as well. - [Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-2025) - [Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? (YES)](https://limitless.exchange/markets/will-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-his-first-6-months-1744374809234) - [Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-canada-by) - [Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by October 31? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-mexico-by) - [Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-removelower-majority-of-reciprocal-tariffs-before-90-deadline-expires) - [Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-remove-10-blanket-tariff-in-2025) - [US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-withdrawal-from-wto-in-2025) - [Will Trump launch tariffs on EU alcohol before December 2025? (YES)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffeualc/eu-alcohol) - [Will Trump impose semiconductor tariffs this year? (YES)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffsemi/tariffs-semiconductors) - [Will Trump launch tariffs on copper? (YES)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffscopper/copper-tariffs) - [Will Trump impose pharma tariffs this year? (YES)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffpharma/pharma-tariffs) - [Will Trump end the de minimis exception for all tariffs this year? (YES)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdeminimis/de-minimis-exception) US Tariff Legal Markets If the probability of NO outcomes increases associated with a court forcing Trump to refund tariffs or Congress passing a bill limiting Trump's tariffs, this implies a more hawkish tariff policy. - [Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-court-force-trump-to-refund-tariffs) - [Will Congress pass a law increasing tariffs this year? (YES)](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcongresstariff/congressional-tariffs) US Tariff Agreements Markets If the probability of NO outcomes increases associated with US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline and US-EU trade agreement by July 9, this implies a more hawkish tariff policy. Similarly, if the YES probability of a 50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9 (up from the current 25% rate), this too implies a more hawkish tariff policy. - [US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-china-tariff-agreement-before-90-day-deadline) - [US-EU trade agreement by July 9? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-eu-trade-agreement-by-july-9) - [50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9) Which countries will the U.S. agree to trade deals with before August? The increasing likelihood of NO outcomes implies a hawkish stance in the context of tariff policy, as the U.S. might be maintaining or increasing tariffs to pressure these nations into more favorable terms, delaying deals. A dovish approach would likely show rising probabilities for YES outcomes, reflecting a willingness to negotiate and reduce tariffs for quicker agreements. - [Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before August? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august) - [Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before August? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august) - [Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before August? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august) U.S. tariff rate on China on August 15? The current US-China tariff rate is approximately 30%. Therefore, if the YES outcome probabilities associated with rates higher than 30% increase, this implies a more hawkish tariff policy. Similarly, if the NO outcome probability increases for a rate less than 25%, this too implies a more hawkish tariff policy. - [U.S. tariff rate on China less than 25% on Aug 15? (NO)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 25% and 40% on Aug 15? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 40% and 60% on Aug 15? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 60% and 100% on Aug 15? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 100% and 150% on Aug 15? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15) - [U.S. tariff rate on China greater than 150% on Aug 15? (YES)](https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 40-60% on August 15? (YES)](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 60-100% on August 15? (YES)](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 100-150% on August 15? (YES)](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) - [U.S. tariff rate on China >150% on August 15? (YES)](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) U.S. Tariff Revenue Average U.S. tariff revenues over the last 5 years is $85M. Therefore, if the YES outcome probabilities associated with tariff revenues is greater than $85M increases, this implies a more hawkish tariff policy. - ["Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? (YES)"](https://polymarket.com/event/will-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES)"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES)"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? (YES)"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? (YES)"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? (YES)"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will Trump halve the trade deficit? (YES)"](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtdeficithalf/us-bop)32:T1bf3,## Markets Added Trump Tariff Policy Markets - [Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? (YES) from Limitless](https://limitless.exchange/markets/will-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-his-first-6-months-1744374809234) - [Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by October 31? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-mexico-by) - [US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-withdrawal-from-wto-in-2025) - [Will Trump launch tariffs on EU alcohol before December 2025? (YES) from Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffeualc/eu-alcohol) - [Will Trump impose semiconductor tariffs this year? (YES) from Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffsemi/tariffs-semiconductors) - [Will Trump launch tariffs on copper? (YES) from Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffscopper/copper-tariffs) - [Will Trump impose pharma tariffs this year? (YES) from Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffpharma/pharma-tariffs) - [Will Trump end the de minimis exception for all tariffs this year? (YES) from Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdeminimis/de-minimis-exception) US Tariff Legal Markets - [Will Congress pass a law increasing tariffs this year? (YES) from Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcongresstariff/congressional-tariffs) Which countries will the U.S. agree to trade deals with before August? - [Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before August? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august) - [Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before August? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august) - [Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before August? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august) U.S. tariff rate on China on August 15? - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 40-60% on August 15? (YES) from Limitless](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 60-100% on August 15? (YES) from Limitless](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) - [U.S. tariff rate on China between 100-150% on August 15? (YES) from Limitless](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) - [U.S. tariff rate on China >150% on August 15? (YES) from Limitless](https://limitless.exchange/markets/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-1747297451953) U.S. Tariff Revenue - ["Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket"](https://polymarket.com/event/will-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? (YES) from Polymarket"](https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-raise-from-tariffs-in-2025) - ["Will Trump halve the trade deficit? (YES) from Kalshi"](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtdeficithalf/us-bop) ## Markets Removed Trump Tariff Policy Markets - ~~[Trump tariffs Apple before July? (YES) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-tariffs-apple-before-july)~~ US Tariff Legal Markets - ~~[Will Congress pass a bill limiting Trump's tariffs before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-congress-pass-a-bill-limiting-trumps-tariffs-before-july)~~ Mexico & Canada Tariffs on China - ~~[Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July? (YES) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-tariffs-on-china-in-effect-before-july)~~ - ~~[Canada tariffs on China in effect before July? (YES) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/canada-tariffs-on-china-in-effect-before-july)~~ Which countries will the U.S. agree to trade deals with before July? - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July (NO)? from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ - ~~[Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July? (NO) from Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july)~~ 33:Tb3d,tariffIndexImpactMap = Object.fromEntries([ // Trump Tariff Policy Markets ["Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025? (YES)", 5], ["Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? (YES)", 5], ["Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? (NO)", 2], ["Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before October? (NO)", 2], [ "Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? (NO)", 4 ], ["Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? (NO)", 4], ["US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025? (YES)", 2], ["Will Trump launch tariffs on EU alcohol before December 2025? (YES)", 4], ["Will Trump impose semiconductor tariffs this year? (YES)", 4], ["Will Trump launch tariffs on copper? (YES)", 4], ["Will Trump impose pharma tariffs this year? (YES)", 4], [ "Will Trump end the de minimis exception for all tariffs this year? (YES)", 4 ], // US Tariff Legal Markets ["Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? (NO)", 2], ["Will Congress pass a law increasing tariffs this year? (YES)", 5], // US Tariff Agreements Markets ["US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? (YES)", 2], ["US-EU trade agreement by July 9? (YES)", 2], ["50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9? (YES)", 4], // Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with this year? [ "Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before August? (NO)", 2 ], ["Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before August? (NO)", 2], ["Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before August? (NO)", 2], // U.S. tariff rate on China on August 15? ["U.S. tariff rate on China less than 25% on Aug 15? (NO)", 1], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 25% and 40% on Aug 15?", 2], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 40% and 60% on Aug 15?", 3], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 60% and 100% on Aug 15?", 4], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 100% and 150% on Aug 15?", 5], ["U.S. tariff rate on China greater than 150% on Aug 15?", 5], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 40-60% on August 15?", 3], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 60-100% on August 15?", 4], ["U.S. tariff rate on China between 100-150% on August 15?", 5], ["U.S. tariff rate on China >150% on August 15?", 5], // U.S. Tariff Revenue ["Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? (YES)", 5], ["Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES)", 5], ["Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES)", 5], ["Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? (YES)", 5], [ "Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? (YES)", 5 ], [ "Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? (YES)", 4 ], ["Will Trump halve the trade deficit? (YES)", 5] ])34:T5de,tariffIndex = generateMarketIndex(processedDataForIndex, { indexName: "US Tariff Index: Trending Hawkish or Dovish?", weights: { // Customize component weights (must sum to approximately 1) components: { time: 0.5, // Increase importance of time horizon (default: 0.4) liquidity: 0.4, // Increase importance of liquidity (default: 0.3) severity: 0.3 // Keep severity the same (default: 0.3) }, // Use your custom severity map severityMap: tariffIndexImpactMap, // Customize time horizon settings timeHorizon: { shortTerm: 15, // Redefine short-term as 30 days (default: 30) longTerm: 30, // Redefine long-term as 60 days (default: 180) shortTermWeight: 2.0, // Increase weight for short-term markets (default: 1.5) mediumTermWeight: 1.0, // Keep medium term weight (default: 1.0) longTermWeight: 0.5 // Decrease weight for long-term markets (default: 0.7) }, // Customize liquidity weight settings liquidity: { minWeight: 0.7, // Increase minimum liquidity weight (default: 0.5) maxWeight: 1.3 // Reduce maximum liquidity weight (default: 1.5) } }, // Custom aggregation function (inverting the index - higher is better) // Uncomment this if you want an inverted index // aggregationFunction: (weightedSum, totalWeight) => { // return totalWeight > 0 ? 100 - (weightedSum / totalWeight) : null; // }, includeRawData: true // Include raw data for debugging or further analysis })35:[] 2f:{"id":"7320c301fc53ee49","slug":"us-tariff-policy-index-trending-hawkish-or-dovish","title":"US Tariff Index: Trending Hawkish or Dovish?","thumbnail":"4915895663d0c4ffb95d1b3e417f73d636d317b9bac2654632218b40f77399d6","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2025-06-23T19:14:48.425Z","update_time":"$D2025-07-02T18:15:53.396Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2025-06-23T19:18:24.575Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e34bfda26f2a3e11bf04364a685b422fda7ad5630974dadb7c20559fdf8ea883","tier":"pro_2024"},"version":236,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"4d75e52b48086387","login":"dougiebuckets","name":"dougiebuckets","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d55596be54f2db1cfdf1dd98b171dbdcc2e8c228c20ce7d20d50902a10772d44","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"59b2aaa9189b56d4","login":"adjacent","name":"Adjacent","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e34bfda26f2a3e11bf04364a685b422fda7ad5630974dadb7c20559fdf8ea883","tier":"pro_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"4d75e52b48086387","login":"dougiebuckets","name":"dougiebuckets","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d55596be54f2db1cfdf1dd98b171dbdcc2e8c228c20ce7d20d50902a10772d44","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"US Tariff Index: Trending Hawkish or Dovish?","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# US Tariff Index: Trending Hawkish or Dovish?","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"Updated July 2nd, 2025: The following index tracks the extent to which US tariff policy is trending in a more hawkish or dovish direction. If the index value increases, that implies US tariff policy is trending more hawkish. Conversely, if the index value decreases, that implies US tariff policy is trending more dovish.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":149,"value":"viewof tariffIndexChart = IndexAdjacentChart({\n title: \"US Tariff Index: Trending Hawkish or Dovish?\",\n subtitle: \"Based on weighted prediction market data\",\n data: tariffIndex,\n indexName: \"US Tariff Index\",\n indexColor: \"#8338EC\",\n width: width,\n xAxis: { field: \"date\", label: \"Date\", format: \"%b %d\" },\n yAxis: { label: \"More Hawkish (%)\", domain: [0, 100] },\n thresholds: false,\n showLegend: true,\n showWatermark: true,\n showEndLabels: true,\n showDots: true,\n dotFrequency: 5\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"## Index Market Composition","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":226,"value":"##################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":215,"value":"## Update Log - July 2nd, 2025","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":220,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"##################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":120,"value":"Index Calculation","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":124,"value":"adjacentMarketData = fetchAdjacentMarketData(\n [\n ...trumpTariffAdjIds,\n ...tariffLegalAdjIds,\n ...tariffAgreementsAdjIds,\n ...tradeDealAdjIds,\n ...tariffRateChinaAdjIds,\n ...tariffRevenuesAdjIds\n ],\n \"38314d45-7899-4f51-a860-f6b898707a70\"\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"marketPriceHistoryForIndex = {\n return await fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesWithDays(\n [\n ...trumpTariffMarketIds,\n ...tariffLegalMarketIds,\n ...tariffAgreementsMarketIds,\n ...tradeDealMarketIds,\n ...tariffRateChinaMarketIds,\n ...tariffRevenuesMarketIds\n ],\n [\n ...trumpTariffMarketNames,\n ...tariffLegalMarketNames,\n ...tariffAgreementsMarketNames,\n ...tradeDealMarketNames,\n ...tariffRateChinaMarketNames,\n ...tariffRevenuesMarketNames\n ],\n 30,\n [\n ...trumpTariffMarketSources,\n ...tariffLegalMarketSources,\n ...tariffAgreementsMarketSources,\n ...tradeDealSources,\n ...tariffRateChinaMarketSources,\n ...tariffRevenuesMarketSources\n ]\n );\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":131,"value":"processedDataForIndex = combineMarketDataWithPrices(\n adjacentMarketData,\n marketPriceHistoryForIndex\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":134,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"##################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":23,"value":"Trump Tariff Policy Markets","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":38,"value":"trumpTariffMarketIds = [\n \"19643366723066630324470249455451599092922235409855159144470290409938111289653\",\n \"will-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-his-first-6-months-1744374809234\",\n \"98621835320933363335153844060564303726880331905818596230241244153306607460034\",\n \"74027486814149465125744388672348869412248583762432321064246704836725324775729\",\n \"4122784666831989288627537511241024173233297065259226047663460228228839381346\",\n \"96196430196774201743029901701865772606218530059837116482888660033531557490543\",\n \"45932814324815105263872383938496399603996492420783741603160581155596278761649\",\n \"KXTARIFFEUALC-25-DEC01\",\n \"KXTARIFFSEMI-25-DEC31\",\n \"KXTARIFFSCOPPER-26-JAN01\",\n \"KXTARIFFPHARMA-25-DEC31\",\n \"KXDEMINIMIS-26\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"trumpTariffMarketNames = [\n \"Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? (NO)\",\n \"Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before October? (NO)\",\n \"Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? (NO)\",\n \"Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? (NO)\",\n \"US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump launch tariffs on EU alcohol before December 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump impose semiconductor tariffs this year? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump launch tariffs on copper? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump impose pharma tariffs this year? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump end the de minimis exception for all tariffs this year? (YES)\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":42,"value":"trumpTariffAdjIds = [\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_impose_large_tariffs_in_\",\n \"na\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_lower_tariffs_on_canada_\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_agree_to_a_trade_deal_w\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_removelower_majority_of_\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_remove_10_blanket_tariff\",\n \"adj_polymarket_us_announces_withdrawal_from_wto_in\",\n \"adj_kalshi_kxtariffeualc_25_dec01\",\n \"dj_kalshi_kxtariffsemi_25_dec3\",\n \"adj_kalshi_kxtariffscopper_26_jan01\",\n \"adj_kalshi_kxtariffpharma_25_dec31\",\n \"adj_kalshi_kxdeminimis_26\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"trumpTariffMarketSources = [\n \"polymarket\",\n \"limitless\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"kalshi\",\n \"kalshi\",\n \"kalshi\",\n \"kalshi\",\n \"kalshi\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":25,"value":"US Tariff Legal Markets","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":57,"value":"tariffLegalMarketNames = [\n \"Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?\",\n \"Will Congress pass a law increasing tariffs this year?\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":60,"value":"tariffLegalMarketIds = [\n \"48296728127248138837616855739644410108007575081100734082095337125662543495872\",\n \"KXCONGRESSTARIFF-26\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"tariffLegalAdjIds = [\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_court_force_trump_to_refun\",\n \"adj_kalshi_kxcongresstariff_2\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":64,"value":"tariffLegalMarketSources = [\"polymarket\", \"kalshi\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":27,"value":"US Tariff Agreements Markets","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":70,"value":"tariffAgreementsMarketNames = [\n \"US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? (NO)\",\n \"US-EU trade agreement by July 9? (NO)\",\n \"50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9? (YES)\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":73,"value":"tariffAgreementsMarketIds = [\n \"75374030079431928415437832580034202576367733179350600581769520677294367049584\",\n \"66698918430101253839109536275141774628907627562689731808654337858047917408457\",\n \"50830460729541490180993686505349416293310007986502845129663136452034794273703\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":76,"value":"tariffAgreementsAdjIds = [\n \"adj_polymarket_us_china_tariff_agreement_before_90\",\n \"adj_polymarket_us_eu_trade_agreement_by_july_9\",\n \"adj_polymarket_50_tariff_goes_into_effect_on_eu_by\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":79,"value":"tariffAgreementsMarketSources = [\"polymarket\", \"polymarket\", \"polymarket\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"Which countries will the U.S. agree to trade deals with before July?","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":94,"value":"tradeDealMarketNames = [\n \"Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before August? (NO)\",\n \"Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before August? (NO)\",\n \"Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before August? (NO)\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":96,"value":"tradeDealMarketIds = [\n \"41784175101720000080624557844736650378291061812680744688073551827202449399647\",\n \"108445373044769097057094219671120113406026660395072017927833599369083933994603\",\n \"50662781918597911717562378634715459127972060866849981163452745813440864616053\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":100,"value":"tradeDealAdjIds = [\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_agree_to_a_tariff_agreem\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_agree_to_a_tariff_agreem\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_trump_agree_to_a_tariff_agreem\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":103,"value":"tradeDealSources = [\"polymarket\", \"polymarket\", \"polymarket\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":33,"value":"U.S. tariff rate on China on August 15?","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":106,"value":"tariffRateChinaMarketNames = [\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China less than 25% on Aug 15? (NO)\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 25% and 40% on Aug 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 40% and 60% on Aug 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 60% and 100% on Aug 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 100% and 150% on Aug 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China greater than 150% on Aug 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 40-60% on August 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 60-100% on August 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China between 100-150% on August 15?\",\n \"U.S. tariff rate on China >150% on August 15?\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"tariffRateChinaMarketIds = [\n \"85527881850865051394012617835804319487097412991995656162825392034976588920776\",\n \"26494547383015857678084557394288070598738111674059710005374810077339628486403\",\n \"106893040456760851734569304071814443145926497568294126946532436632830878033759\",\n \"69991743733244295286356016343117883501812233604990109357839675615001676393479\",\n \"72385988903359619619018227575834452490005931195201221568328957028166373278618\",\n \"77337564790275783554372169000370591189886011128344819168131421033330255493258\",\n \"40-60percent-1747297452029\",\n \"60-100percent-1747297452050\",\n \"100-150percent-1747297452069\",\n \"greater150percent-1747297452076\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":112,"value":"tariffRateChinaAdjIds = [\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_tariff_rate_on_china_be\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_tariff_rate_on_china_b\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_tariff_rate_on_china_be\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_tariff_rate_on_china_be\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_tariff_rate_on_china_be\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_tariff_rate_on_china_be\",\n \"na\",\n \"na\",\n \"na\",\n \"na\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":115,"value":"tariffRateChinaMarketSources = [\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"limitless\",\n \"limitless\",\n \"limitless\",\n \"limitless\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":189,"value":"U.S. Tariff Revenue","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":191,"value":"tariffRevenuesMarketNames = [\n \"Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? (YES)\",\n \"Will Trump halve the trade deficit? (YES)\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":194,"value":"tariffRevenuesMarketIds = [\n \"7935869750973568991063634796432742901043529564448603464914559127943627115874\",\n \"18819282518983024340055565234868223423589909363920183730949900798929318964595\",\n \"55230883696690777055093667580992529716053651794118931424366317904049903435707\",\n \"14642427631762357507939608294887050551300827907746951519205602696553287464979\",\n \"19180751334892649957685662514970856594118361572000181281162861811532650604260\",\n \"56943889421369223313864561268386407584816988844238380390936659020238520433523\",\n \"KXTDEFICITHALF-29\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":197,"value":"tariffRevenuesAdjIds = [\n \"adj_polymarket_will_tariffs_generate_250b_in_2025\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_collect_more_than_2t_in\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_collect_between_1t_and_\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_collect_between_500b_an\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_collect_between_200b_a\",\n \"adj_polymarket_will_the_us_collect_between_100b_an\",\n \"adj_kalshi_kxtdeficithalf_29\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":200,"value":"tariffRevenuesMarketSources = [\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"polymarket\",\n \"kalshi\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"##################################################################","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"import {fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesMax, fetchProcessedMarketHistoriesWithDays, fetchAdjacentMarketData, calculateTimeHorizonWeight, calculateLiquidityWeight, calculateSeverityWeight, combineMarketDataWithPrices, calculateMarketIndex, generateMarketIndex, AdjacentChart, IndexAdjacentChart} from \"@adjacent/adjacent-helper-function-notebook-spec\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W35","stdlib":"1"}} 30:"$2f:body"