From the above box plot, it would be natural to assume that as the wind speed increases on the night of the 25th / 26th there is a low probability of the wind speed going above 25 ms^-1.

If you click on "Plume", the same data will be shown, but as plumes with the same quantile ranges. This is, in effect, painting in the gaps between each of the boxes of the box plot. A larger area above 25 ms^-1 may lead the viewer to think that there is a larger probability that the wind speed will actually go above 25 ms^-1.

However, both the dot plot and the plume hide the characteristics of the underlying data. By clicking on "Ordered" you will see an illustration of how your brain will naturally understand the underlying data. However, by clicking on "Spaghetti" you will see the actual underlying data as all of the ensemble members are shown in what is quite aptly known as a spaghetti plot. Now there is a hint that the box plot and the plumes may be hiding some useful information. It looks like many of the ensemble members go above 25 ms^-1 and return to a wind speed below that threshold at different times, suggesting that it is in fact an uncertainty in the timing of the wind speed going above 25 ms^-1 that is leading to low probabilities for each hour. Clicking "Animation" will show the evolution of each ensemble member, with the circle tracing the wind speed evolution being blue when the wind speed is below 25 ms^-1 and red when the wind speed is above 25 ms^-1. It now becomes somewhat clearer that in fact every ensemble member goes above 25 ms^-1 during the night. So, although there is considerable uncertainty in the timing, the forecast suggests that the wind speed will definitley go above 25 ms^-1 during the night night, it just cannot predict exactly when with much accuracy.

All of this means that there is a need to get more information from basic plots of time series of ensemble weather forecasts. This can be done by brushing on any of the forms of visualizing the ensemble, which will generate 2 dot plots to the right. The lower one shows the distribution of the minimum wind speed for each ensemble member between the brushed times and the upper one the same, but for the maximum wind speed between the brushed times. The dot plots are constructed by binning the minimum or maximum temperature between the brushed times for each ensemble member into 0.5 ms^-1 bins, displaying each binned member as a dot and stacking them for each bin. The dots are blue for wind speeds below 25 ms^-1 and red for wind speeds above 25 ms^-1. Brushing over the night of the 14th / 15th confirms that the wind speed goes above 25 ms^-1 for every ensemble member at some point during that time window, so in answer to the original question - the forecast suggests that the wind speed will definitely go above 25 ms^-1 at some point in the night, but there is considerable uncertainty about exactly when that will happen.