2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"SAPP DAM Price and Solar Costs | Andy Fleming | Observable"}] 32:T884,{ var data = [ { y: monthly_price.map(d=>d[1].price), x: monthly_price.map(d=>d[1].start_date), mode: 'lines', line: {shape: 'spline', color: 'grey', width: 2}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:true, yaxis: 'y2', name:'Mean monthly price on the SAPP DAM market for a solar PV plant. $/MWh.' }, { y: irena.map(d=>d.max/1000).concat(irena.map(d=>d.min/1000).reverse()), x: irena.map(d=>d.year).concat(irena.map(d=>d.year).reverse()), mode: 'lines', line: {color: 'orange', width: 0},fill:'toself', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Range specific installation costs for solar PV (IRENA 2021). $million/MW.' }, { y: prices.map(d=>d.specific*0.8/1000).concat(prices.map(d=>d.specific*1.2/1000).reverse()), x: prices.map(d=>d.date).concat(prices.map(d=>d.date).reverse()), mode: 'lines', line: {color: 'green', width: 0}, fill:'toself', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:true, name: 'Quoted specific installation costs for the Ilute project. $million/MW. ' }, { y: prices.map(d=>d.specific/1000), text: prices.map(d=>d3.format(',.2f')(d.specific/1000)), x: prices.map(d=>d.date), textposition:'bottom', mode: 'lines+markers+text', line: {color: 'green', width: 2}, type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'x+y', showlegend:false } ] var layout = { height: 340, width: width*.8, font: font, showlegend: true, legend: {orientation: 'v',xanchor: 'left', x:0, y: 1}, margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 50,t: 0}, xaxis: { showgrid: true, zeroline: false, ticks: 'outside',range:['2016-01-01','2023-07-01'] }, yaxis: { title: `$million/MW`, range:[0,4.1], dtick:1, showgrid: true, zeroline: false, tickformat: ',.0f', ticks:'outside' }, yaxis2: { range: [20,140], title: `$/MWh`, showgrid: false, zeroline: false, tickformat: '.0f', ticks:'outside', overlaying: 'y',side: 'right', range:[0,210] } }; const div=DOM.element('div') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}); return html`${div}` }33:T526,Specific installation costs ($000s/MW) for solar as reported by IRENA* between 2015 and 2021 show steadily decreasing costs for new solar PV projects as the costs of solar modules and BOP has dropped.

However the specific installation cost for the 25MWac Ilute solar project in western Zambia has risen 30% between min 2021 and mid 2022 driven by global supply and macroeconomic factors.

Meanwhile the price that can be attained by a solar PV project selling all its output directly onto the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) Day Ahead Market (DAM) has remained reasonably constant at 50 - 100$/MWh since 2016 although the last three years have seen increased volatility.

It is probable that the prices for solar PV modules and BOP seen in late 2020 mark the lowest that will ever be achieved with all significant manufacturing improvements and economies of scale having been realised. As we enter a higher inflation period prices for solar PV are liekly to continue to increase.

We would expect that the price of the SAPP DAM market will also rise as general inflationary pressure and an increase in the cost of new gneration are felt however there is liekly to be a lag and whilst volumes on the market remain low then fundamental supply and demand forces will have less impact.34:[] 30:{"id":"71f0fb3bcf54b7f9","slug":"sapp-dam-price-and-solar-costs","title":"SAPP DAM Price and Solar Costs","thumbnail":"9c8be1c7c0c2a004079acd3814755480eaf57c506a46570c17e836d5c9e354b2","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2022-07-15T12:31:38.810Z","update_time":"$D2023-07-28T14:05:13.821Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2022-07-15T13:58:22.815Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":2,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"21337e734770a90b","login":"andyflem","name":"Andy Fleming","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/fd3844143a4c29872f0df28a8ebce77bb56cebf2fa74bb669872e4def82ad809","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":190,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"96924893937b5930","login":"andyflem","name":"Andy Fleming","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/fd3844143a4c29872f0df28a8ebce77bb56cebf2fa74bb669872e4def82ad809","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"96924893937b5930","login":"andyflem","name":"Andy Fleming","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/fd3844143a4c29872f0df28a8ebce77bb56cebf2fa74bb669872e4def82ad809","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"SAPP DAM Price and Solar Costs","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# SAPP DAM Price and Solar Costs","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":42,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":75,"value":"IRENA:\n
Renewable Energy Costs in 2020 - International Renewable Energy Agerncy (IRENA), 2021. \n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":152,"value":"

\n

Appendix

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"prices=[\n {date: new Date('2021-01-01'), epc: 20152, proj: 32870, specific: 20152/25},\n {date: new Date('2022-5-01'), epc: 26800, proj: 42244, specific: 26800/25},\n {date: new Date('2022-12-01'), epc: 25899, proj: 42244, specific: 25899/25},\n {date: new Date('2023-5-01'), epc: 24800, proj: 42244, specific: 24800/25},\n \n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":72,"value":"irena=[\n {year: new Date('2011-01-1'), specific: 4731, min: 3400, max: 7500},\n {year: new Date('2012-01-1'), specific: 4007, min: 2650, max: 7000},\n {year: new Date('2013-01-1'), specific: 3021, min: 2100, max: 6000},\n {year: new Date('2014-01-1'), specific: 2647, min: 1750, max: 5450},\n {year: new Date('2015-01-1'), specific: 2393, min: 1450, max: 5400},\n {year: new Date('2016-01-1'), specific: 1823, min: 1250, max: 4100},\n {year: new Date('2017-01-1'), specific: 1657, min: 1150, max: 3250},\n {year: new Date('2018-01-1'), specific: 1432, min: 800, max: 3000},\n {year: new Date('2019-01-1'), specific: 1223, min: 750, max: 2800},\n {year: new Date('2020-01-1'), specific: 1009, min: 700, max: 2350},\n {year: new Date('2021-01-1'), specific: 883, min: 600, max: 2350},\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"monthly_price = {\n \n let ret = d3.rollups(\n daily_price.map(v => v[1]),\n v => {\n return {\n lux_date: v[0].lux_date,\n start_date: d3.min(v, d => d.date),\n weekday_price: d3.mean(v.filter(p => p.lux_date.weekday < 6), d => d.price),\n saturday_price: d3.mean(v.filter(p => p.lux_date.weekday == 6), d => d.price),\n sunday_price: d3.mean(v.filter(p => p.lux_date.weekday == 7), d => d.price),\n price: d3.mean(v, d => d.price),\n }\n },\n v => v.lux_date.year + '_' + v.lux_date.month\n )\n return ret //.filter(v=>v[1].lux_date.year>2020)\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"daily_price = d3.rollups(hourly_weighted_price, v => { \n return {\n date: d3.max(v, v=>v.date),\n lux_date: d3.max(v, v=>DateTime.fromJSDate(v.date)),\n price: d3.sum(v, d => d.weighted_price)\n }\n}, v => v.date)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"hourly_weighted_price={\n return hourly.map(h => {\n return {\n date: h.date,\n hour: h.hour,\n weighted_price: h.price * relative_yield_profiles[h.lux_date.month-1][h.hour],\n }\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":56,"value":"hourly = {\n const raw = (await d3.csv(base_url + market_ref + \"_hourly_slim.csv?\" + Math.floor(Math.random() * 1100),d3.autoType))\n raw.forEach(r=>{\n r.lux_date=DateTime.fromJSDate(r.date)\n }) \n return raw.filter(v => (v.lux_date.year < 2023) || (v.lux_date.year == 2023 && v.lux_date.month < 7))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":50,"value":"relative_yield_profiles = {\n return monthly_hours_p50.map((m, i) => {\n let tmp = Object.keys(m).map(h=>{\n return m[h]/monthly_yield_totals[i]\n })\n tmp.pop()\n return tmp\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":52,"value":"monthly_yield_totals = {\n return monthly_hours_p50.map(m => {\n let obs=Object.entries(m)\n obs.pop()\n return d3.sum(obs, v => v[1])\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"monthly_hours_p50 = {\n const raw = (await d3.csv(base_url + \"/pv/25mw_p50.csv?\" + Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000),d3.autoType))\n return raw\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":60,"value":"base_url=\"https://data.africanpowerprojects.com/sapp/output/\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":58,"value":"market_ref='dam'","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":36,"value":"make_trans=function(col,opacity) {\n let c=d3.color(col)\n c.opacity=opacity\n return c.formatRgb()\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":34,"value":"font = ({\n family: 'Courier New, monospace',\n size: 13,\n color: '#6f6f6f'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":32,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":30,"value":"plt = require(\"https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":22,"value":"html`\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":20,"value":"html`\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":18,"value":"ss = require('simple-statistics')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"style=html`css\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"DateTime = luxon.DateTime","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"luxon = require(\"luxon@1/build/amd/luxon.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1"}} 31:"$30:body"