2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"SAPP DAM Time of Day Arbitrage with Battery | Andy Fleming | Observable"}] 32:T6a7,{ let margin = ({top: 20, right: 65, bottom: 0, left: 73}) let height=300 let ys=timeofday.map(d => d.dayofweek == 1 ? month_names[d.month-1] : d.dayofweek == 6 ? 'Sat' : 'Sun') ys.splice(12,0,'') let y = d3.scaleBand() .domain(ys) .range([margin.top, height - margin.bottom]) .padding(0.1) .round(true) let x = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, 24]) .range([margin.left, width - margin.right]) .interpolate(d3.interpolateRound) const svg = d3 .create("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .style("max-width", `${width}px`) .style("height", "auto") svg.append("g") .attr('transform', `translate(0,${margin.top})`) .call(d3.axisTop(x).ticks(23)) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text") .attr("font-size", 12)) svg.append("g") .attr('transform', `translate(${margin.left},0)`) .call(d3.axisLeft(y)) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text") .attr("font-size", 12)) svg.append("g") .attr('stroke', 'white') .attr('stroke-width', '1') .attr('fill-opacity', '0.5') .selectAll("rect") .data(timeofday_flat) .join("rect") .attr('y', d=>y(d.dayofweek == 1 ? month_names[d.month-1] : d.dayofweek == 6 ? 'Sat' : 'Sun')) .attr('x', d=>x(d.hour)) .attr('width', x(1)-x(0)) .attr('height', y.bandwidth()) .attr('fill', d=>catCol(cats[d.cat].index) ) return html` ${svg.node()}

Average pricing patterns on the SAPP DAM market by time of day and month and for Saturdays and Sundays.

` }33:Taa5,{ var data = [ { y: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.off_morning), x: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.year), name: 'Offpeak to Morning', marker: {color:make_trans(d3.schemeCategory10[3],0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means_expanding.map(v => v.off_morning), x: means_expanding.map(v => v.year), text: means_expanding.map(v => d3.format('.0f')(v.off_morning)), type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top', line: {color:d3.schemeCategory10[3]} }, { y: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.standard_evening), x: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.year), name: 'Standard to Evening', marker: {color:make_trans(d3.schemeCategory10[9],0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means_expanding.map(v => v.standard_evening), x: means_expanding.map(v => v.year), text: means_expanding.map(v => d3.format('.0f')(v.standard_evening)),name: 'Expanding mean from 2022 back', type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top', line: {color:d3.schemeCategory10[9]} }, { y: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.saturday), x: yearly_differentials.map(v => v.year), name: 'Saturday', marker: {color:make_trans(d3.schemeCategory10[8],0.6)}, type: 'bar', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:true, mode:'markers', textposition:'outside' }, { y: means_expanding.map(v => v.saturday), x: means_expanding.map(v => v.year), text: means_expanding.map(v => d3.format('.0f')(v.saturday)), type: 'scatter', hoverinfo: 'y', showlegend:false, mode:'markers+text+lines', textposition:'top', line: {color:d3.schemeCategory10[8]} }] var layout = { height: 300, width: width *.75, font: font, showlegend: true, legend: {orientation:'h',xanchor: 'left', x:0, y: 1}, margin: {l: 90,r: 90,b: 30,t: 0}, xaxis: { showgrid: false, zeroline: false, ticks:'outside', dtick:1}, yaxis: { title: '$/MWh', showgrid: true, zeroline: true, tickformat: ',.0f', ticks:'outside', range: [0,220] }}; const div=container('Time-of-day price differentials on the SAPP DAM Market. Bars - Mean differentials by year. Lines - Expanding means, the mean from that year to date reading from right to left.') plt.newPlot(div, data, layout,{displayModeBar: false}) return html`${div}` }34:Tc72,viewof params = { const form = html`` form.value = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(scenario)) function makeSlider(indx) { let dom = html`

` return dom } function addHandler(indx, label, unit, multiplier = 1) { function set() { if (parseFloat(form[indx].value) !== objIndex(base_params, indx)) { form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).style.color = 'red' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_disp']`).textContent = parseFloat(form[indx].value) * multiplier + unit + ' (' + (objIndex(base_params, indx) * multiplier) + ')' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).textContent = label } else { form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).style.color = '' form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_disp']`).textContent = parseFloat(form[indx].value) * multiplier + unit form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}_label']`).textContent = label } } set() form.querySelector(`[id='${indx}']`).addEventListener("input", () => { set() console.log(form.value) setObjIndex(form.value, indx, parseFloat(form[indx].value)) console.log(form.value) }) } addHandler('battery.capacity', 'Capacity', ' MWh') addHandler('battery.degredation', 'Degredation', ' MWh/(365 cycles)') addHandler('battery.efficiency', 'Efficiency', '%') addHandler('battery.life', 'Life', ' years') addHandler('forecast.differentials.off_morning', 'Offpeak to Morning', '$/MWh') addHandler('forecast.differentials.standard_evening', 'Standard to Evening', '$/MWh') addHandler('forecast.differentials.saturday', 'Saturday', '$/MWh') addHandler('forecast.sapp_cost', 'SAPP costs', '$/MWh') return form }35:T8f4,html`

	Off-peak to Morning	Standard to Evening	Saturday	Total
Average cycles per month	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.off_morning/12)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.standard_evening)/12}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.saturday/12)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.total/12)}
Average cycles per year	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.off_morning)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.standard_evening)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.saturday)}	${d3.format('.2f')(annual_cycles.total)}
Mean Differentials after Costs ($/MWh)	${d3.format('.1f')(differentials_after_costs.off_morning)}	${d3.format('.1f')(differentials_after_costs.standard_evening)}	${d3.format('.1f')(differentials_after_costs.saturday)}
Gross Monthly Margin ($000)	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.off_morning/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.standard_evening/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.saturday)/1000}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.gross.total)/1000}
Monthly SAPP Costs ($000)	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.off_morning/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.standard_evening/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.saturday)/1000}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.sapp_costs.total)/1000}
Net Monthly Margin ($000)	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.off_morning/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.standard_evening/1000)}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.saturday)/1000}	${d3.format('.3r')(monthly_revenue_yr0.net.total)/1000}

`36:T56b,monthly_revenue_yr0 = { let ret = { gross: { off_morning: params.forecast.differentials.off_morning * (annual_cycles.off_morning / 12) * params.battery.capacity * (params.battery.efficiency/100), standard_evening: params.forecast.differentials.standard_evening * (annual_cycles.standard_evening / 12) * params.battery.capacity * (params.battery.efficiency/100), saturday: params.forecast.differentials.saturday * (annual_cycles.saturday / 12) * params.battery.capacity * (params.battery.efficiency/100), } } ret.gross.total = ret.gross.off_morning + ret.gross.standard_evening + ret.gross.saturday ret.sapp_costs = { off_morning: ((annual_cycles.off_morning / 12) * params.battery.capacity * params.forecast.sapp_cost), standard_evening: ((annual_cycles.standard_evening / 12) * params.battery.capacity * params.forecast.sapp_cost), saturday: ((annual_cycles.saturday / 12) * params.battery.capacity * params.forecast.sapp_cost) } ret.sapp_costs.total = ret.sapp_costs.off_morning + ret.sapp_costs.standard_evening + ret.sapp_costs.saturday ret.net = { off_morning: ret.gross.off_morning - ret.sapp_costs.off_morning, standard_evening: ret.gross.standard_evening - ret.sapp_costs.standard_evening, saturday: ret.gross.saturday - ret.sapp_costs.saturday, total: ret.gross.total - ret.sapp_costs.total } return ret }37:[] 30:{"id":"4b5fa02e835b9384","slug":"sapp-dam-time-of-day-arbitrage-with-battery","title":"SAPP DAM Time of Day Arbitrage with Battery","thumbnail":"e5a6622d811ab085380f3c6889d923ec0f04ce967513d715d6a815744365330e","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2022-07-26T20:26:12.663Z","update_time":"$D2022-08-02T13:00:17.984Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2022-07-29T10:44:31.785Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"21337e734770a90b","login":"andyflem","name":"Andy Fleming","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/fd3844143a4c29872f0df28a8ebce77bb56cebf2fa74bb669872e4def82ad809","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":321,"publish_version":321,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"96924893937b5930","login":"andyflem","name":"Andy Fleming","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/fd3844143a4c29872f0df28a8ebce77bb56cebf2fa74bb669872e4def82ad809","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"96924893937b5930","login":"andyflem","name":"Andy Fleming","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/fd3844143a4c29872f0df28a8ebce77bb56cebf2fa74bb669872e4def82ad809","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":3,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"SAPP DAM Time of Day Arbitrage with Battery","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"

SAPP DAM Time of Day Arbitrage with Battery

\nTo do:\n

Extend to time series including degredation
Model project company revenue based on :

fixed monthly capacity charge on 5MWh
fixed per cycle charge on 35MWh
proportion of trading margin

\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":226,"value":"

Market Patterns

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":230,"value":"For derivation see here.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":105,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":212,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":228,"value":"

Battery Storage Model

\n Scenario \n

\n \n\n

\n `\n\n form.oninput = () => {\n form.value = parseInt(form.input.value)\n }\n form.oninput()\n return form\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":136,"value":"html`\nCapacity (at installation): ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.capacity)}MWh\n
\nMaximum charge power: ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.capacity / minimum_hours.charge)}MW over ${minimum_hours.charge} hours\n
\nMaximum discharge power: ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.capacity / minimum_hours.discharge)}MW over ${minimum_hours.discharge} hours\n

\nLoss per cycle: ${d3.format('.2r')(loss_per_cycle)}MWh\n
\nStorage efficiency: ${d3.format('.2r')(params.battery.efficiency)}%\n
\nMinimum price differential to offset losses: ${d3.format('.4r')(100/params.battery.efficiency*100)}%\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":188,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":264,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":251,"value":"differentials_after_costs = {\n return {\n off_morning: params.forecast.differentials.off_morning - params.forecast.sapp_cost,\n standard_evening: params.forecast.differentials.standard_evening - params.forecast.sapp_cost,\n saturday: params.forecast.differentials.saturday - params.forecast.sapp_cost,\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":172,"value":"loss_per_cycle = params.battery.capacity * (1-params.battery.efficiency/100)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":160,"value":"annual_cycles = {\n\n let ret = {\n off_morning: 365 - 104,\n standard_evening: 365 - 104\n }\n ret.saturday = 52 * 2\n ret.total = ret.off_morning + ret.standard_evening + ret.saturday\n return ret\n}\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":131,"value":"minimum_hours = {\n return {\n off: 8,\n morning: 3,\n standard: 8,\n evening: 2,\n charge: 8,\n discharge: 2\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":45,"value":"### Scenarios","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":56,"value":"scenario={\n let s = scenarios[scenario_number].fn()\n s.number = scenario_number\n return s\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"scenarios = [\n {name: 'Base Case - Differentials are historic means 2019 to date.', fn: fBaseCase}\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":51,"value":"fBaseCase = function() {\n let p = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(base_params))\n p.name = 'Base Case'\n return p\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"base_params = {\n return {\n battery: {\n capacity: 35,\n degredation: 0.022,\n efficiency: 86,\n life: 6\n },\n forecast: {\n sapp_cost: 10,\n differentials: {\n off_morning: parseFloat(d3.format('.3r')(means_expanding.filter(v => v.year==2019)[0].off_morning)),\n standard_evening: parseFloat(d3.format('.3r')(means_expanding.filter(v => v.year==2019)[0].standard_evening)),\n saturday: parseFloat(d3.format('.3r')(means_expanding.filter(v => v.year==2019)[0].saturday)),\n }\n }\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":72,"value":"

Import

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":117,"value":"month_names={\n return {\n 0:'Jan',\n 1:'Feb',\n 2:'Mar',\n 3:'Apr',\n 4:'May',\n 5:'Jun',\n 6:'Jul',\n 7:'Aug',\n 8:'Sep',\n 9:'Oct',\n 10:'Nov',\n 11:'Dec',\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":79,"value":"means_expanding","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":216,"value":"import {yearly_differentials} from 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}\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"function catCol(index) {\n return d3.schemeCategory10[index]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"timeofday = {\n const raw = (await d3.csv(base_url + market_ref + \"_timeofday.csv?\" + Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000),d3.autoType))\n \n return raw\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":123,"value":"timeofday_flat={\n let o=[]\n timeofday.forEach(t=>{\n [...Array(24).keys()].forEach((h,i)=>{\n o.push({month: t.month, hour: i, 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