44:["$","title",null,{"children":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de la natation | antoinehnz | Observable"}] 4c:[] 48:{"id":"ab65c645affd6b83","slug":"compte_rendu_natation","title":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de la natation","thumbnail":"6f6cc7b7ae7be67a4b1824ad4204d342535d999eb392a69a43c83b7f54786289","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2021-04-01T14:41:56.597Z","update_time":"$D2021-04-07T16:14:57.538Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2021-04-01T17:51:55.160Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"28c93ca135bc4b52","login":"antoinehnz","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/38f53652d662ff38cf8f3312c897b4a1826f20df3401f2ecd6dee15b03d9dbd9","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":235,"publish_version":235,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"fd2bfb99bf56c2e5","login":"antoinehnz","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/38f53652d662ff38cf8f3312c897b4a1826f20df3401f2ecd6dee15b03d9dbd9","tier":null,"bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"fd2bfb99bf56c2e5","login":"antoinehnz","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/38f53652d662ff38cf8f3312c897b4a1826f20df3401f2ecd6dee15b03d9dbd9","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"560201c9c61a188e","login":"romsson","name":"Romain Vuillemot","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3b127750f8c67597cf2e60d4296f87cde15f59cdb4d1853063922cce5489fb4b","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":{"id":"395c810906b95fd8","slug":"pe-77-etude-des-jo-2021","title":"[PE 77] Étude des JO 2021","owner":{"id":"28c93ca135bc4b52","login":"antoinehnz","name":""}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de la natation","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de la natation`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"md`

\nNous présentons ici le travail d'un groupe d'étudiants de l'Ecole Centrale de Lyon, en ce qui concerne la natation, pour les Jeux Olympiques de 2021. Nous avons cherché à analyser les dernières performances des différents athlètes, français et internationnaux, dans différentes disciplines, afin d'estimer le nombre de médailles françaises aux Jeux. Voici ci-dessous notre analyse pour la natation.
\nNous vous serions très reconnaissant si vous pouviez nous faire un retour critique sur notre travail. \n

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"md` ---\n## Tour d'horizon de nos estimations de chances de médaille pour toutes les disciplines des JO de Tokyo`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"vegalite({\n \"data\": {values: data_gdoc1},\n \"layer\": [ {\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"bar\", \"color\" : \"#D9DDDC\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"x\": {\"field\": \"Sport\" , \"type\": \"nominal\"},\n \"y\": {aggregate: \"count\", field: \"*\", type: \"quantitative\",\"title\" : \"Médailles possibles\"}}},\n {\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"bar\", \"color\" : \"#4d4f4f\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"x\": {\"field\": \"Sport\" , \"type\": \"nominal\"},\n \"y\": {\"field\": 'Evaluation au'.concat(' ', \"31/03/2021\") ,\"type\": \"quantitative\", \"aggregate\": \"sum\",\"title\" : \"Estimation\"},\n \"color\": {\n \"condition\": {test: {\"field\" : \"Sport\", \"equal\" : \"Natation\"}, value: \"#4C78A8\" },\n value: \"#4d4f4f\"}\n } }]\n },\n \"invalidation\",\n \"visibility\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":65,"value":"md`\nSur ce graphe on trouve :
\n* **Le total de podiums dans le sport**
\n* Notre estimation pour la France dans le sport (autre que la natation)
\n* Notre estimation pour la France en Natation \n

\n\n**À Noter** : Pour chaque discipline, on a établit une chance de podium entre 0 et 1. Ici on représente la somme de ces notes. Il faut donc voir cette valeur comme une valeur basse.
\nNotre estimation la plus haute est la suivante : ** 6 podiums** pour la France \n\nSi vous souhaitez voir nos autres estimations, notamment dans les autres sports, je vous invite à visiter [cette page](https://next.observablehq.com/@antoinehnz/visualisation-des-donnees-de-jo)

On cherche ici à représenter en détail nos estimations dans les différentes disciplines qui composent la natation.
\nFaute de temps, nous nous sommes concentré que sur certaines disciplines, nous obligeant à faire un choix, et donc laissant possiblement certaines disciplines importantes de côté. Si vous voyez, parmi les disciplines à 0, une discipline que nous devrions analyser, je vous prie de nous en faire part.

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":140,"value":"md`#### Natation Homme (et mixte)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":113,"value":"vegalite({\"$schema\": \"https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v4.json\",\n \"data\": {values: data_gdoc4},\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"rect\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"y\" : {\"field\": \"Discipline\" , \"type\": \"nominal\", sort: false, \"title\" : \"Natation Homme\"},\n \"x\": {\"field\" : \"Score\", \"type\": \"quantitative\", \"title\" : \"Confiance (entre 0 et 1)\",\"sort\" : false,\"scale\": {\"domain\": [0,1]}},\n \"color\": {\"field\" : \"Score\", \"type\" : \"quantitative\",\"scale\": {\"scheme\": \"redyellowgreen\",\"domain\": [0,1]},\"title\" : \"Confiance\"},\n \"config\": {\n \"axis\": {\"grid\": true, \"tickBand\": \"extent\",\"axis\": {\"format\": \"%\"},}\n },\n \"tooltip\": {\"field\": \"Score\", \"type\": \"quantitative\"},\n },\n \"transform\": [{\"filter\" : {\"field\" : \"Catégorie\", \"equal\" : \"1\"}}]\n \n })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":145,"value":"md`\n#### Natation Femme`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"vegalite({\"$schema\": \"https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v4.json\",\n \"data\": {values: data_gdoc4},\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"rect\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"y\" : {\"field\": \"Discipline\" , \"type\": \"nominal\", sort: false, \"title\" : \"Natation Femme\"},\n \"x\": {\"field\" : \"Score\", \"type\": \"quantitative\", \"title\" : \"Confiance (entre 0 et 1)\",\"sort\" : false,\"scale\": {\"domain\": [0,1]}},\n \"color\": {\"field\" : \"Score\", \"type\" : \"quantitative\",\"scale\": {\"scheme\": \"redyellowgreen\",\"domain\": [0,1]},\"title\" : \"Confiance\"},\n \"config\": {\n \"axis\": {\"grid\": true, \"tickBand\": \"extent\",\"axis\": {\"format\": \"%\"}}\n },\n \"tooltip\": {\"field\": \"Score\", \"type\": \"quantitative\"},\n },\n \"transform\": [{\"filter\" : {\"field\" : \"Catégorie\", \"equal\" : \"2\"}}]\n \n })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":164,"value":"md`\n#### Plongeon, water-polo et natation synchronisée`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":155,"value":"vegalite({\"$schema\": \"https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v4.json\",\n \"data\": {values: data_gdoc4},\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"rect\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"y\" : {\"field\": \"Discipline\" , \"type\": \"nominal\", sort: false, \"title\" : \"Autres disciplines\"},\n \"x\": {\"field\" : \"Score\", \"type\": \"quantitative\", \"title\" : \"Confiance (entre 0 et 1)\",\"sort\" : false, \"scale\": {\"domain\": [0,1]}},\n \"color\": {\"field\" : \"Score\", \"type\" : \"quantitative\",\"scale\": {\"scheme\": \"redyellowgreen\",\"domain\": [0,1]},\"title\" : \"Confiance\"},\n \"config\": {\n \"axis\": {\"grid\": true, \"tickBand\": \"extent\",\"axis\": {\"format\": \"%\"}}\n },\n \"tooltip\": {\"field\": \"Score\", \"type\": \"quantitative\"},\n },\n \"transform\": [{\"filter\" : {\"field\" : \"Catégorie\", \"equal\" : \"3\"}}]\n \n })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":37,"value":"md` ---\n## Nos favoris en natation pour les JO`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":167,"value":"md`

Dans cette partie, nous avons essayé de séléctionner parmi les différents athlètes qualifiés ou en voie de se qualifier les favoris français.
\nUn cas fut épineux : celui de **Florent Manaudou**. Absent des bassins entre 2016 et mars 2019, il a participé à peu de grands rassemblements internationaux sur les quatres dernières années, ce qui nous a posé un problème pour le positionner par rapport à ses concurrents.
\nEncore une fois, nous avons dû faire un choix parmi les disciplines, et donc parmi les athlètes à analyser. Si vous voyez une quelconque incohérence, n'hésitez pas à nous en faire part.\n

\nNous rajoutons à cette liste deux athlètes: **Yohann Ndoye Brouard** au 200m dos pour son record de France le 19 mars dernier et **Mélanie Henique**, qualifié elle aussi en mars, en 50m nage libre. Nous n'avons pas encore pu analyser leurs performances, mais ils semblent bien figurer parmi les français favoris pour les JO de 2021\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"md` --- `","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":43,"value":"md` ---\n## Détails Techniques`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"url_gdoc = \"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS3_DKGAgsO369BBU_4xtoYg1dEJWDd2u2rWOtNFQVAwoPE_xlXKTxbw3w92TMYN-N9ItyJHcRDiFSG/pub?gid=960746373&single=true&output=tsv\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":115,"value":"url_gdoc4 = \"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS3_DKGAgsO369BBU_4xtoYg1dEJWDd2u2rWOtNFQVAwoPE_xlXKTxbw3w92TMYN-N9ItyJHcRDiFSG/pub?gid=4095632&single=true&output=tsv\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":51,"value":"data_gdoc1 = {\n let names = [];\n const spreadsheet = await d3\n .tsv(url_gdoc)\n .then(data => data.forEach(d => names.push(d)));\n return names;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"data_gdoc4 = {\n let names = [];\n const spreadsheet = await d3\n .tsv(url_gdoc4)\n .then(data => data.forEach(d => names.push(d)));\n return names;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\", \"d3-sankey@0.12\", \"d3-array@^2.2\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":178,"value":"alasql = require(\"alasql\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":181,"value":"db = {\n let db = new alasql.Database();\n db.exec('CREATE TABLE data_gdoc1');\n db.tables.data_gdoc1.data = data_gdoc1;\n return db\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":184,"value":"chart_data2 = {\n let sql = `\n SELECT Athletes,Discipline, [Evaluation au 31/03/2021] AS Confiance\n FROM data_gdoc1 \n WHERE Sport = \"Natation\" AND [Evaluation au 31/03/2021] > 0\n ORDER BY [Evaluation au 31/03/2021] DESC`\n \n\n return db.exec(sql)\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":193,"value":"import {table} from \"@tmcw/tables/2\"//import {table} from \"@tmcw/tables@444\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":56,"value":"vegalite = require(\"@observablehq/vega-lite@0.2\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":60,"value":"colorVega = \"#4C78A8\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W4c","stdlib":"1"}} 24:null