2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"NBN Business Case - Financials | Richard Ferrers | Observable"}] 33:T4b3,viewof pic1 = { const pl = DOM.element('div'); var layout = { showlegend: true, title: "NBN Financials 2016-2021", barmode: 'stack', xaxis: { title: 'Year', dtick: 1 }, // x-axis yaxis: { range: [0, 12], title: '$B / M', dtick: 1 } // y-axis } var trace1 = { x: years, y: revenue, name: 'Revenue', type: 'line' }; var trace2 = { x: years, y: subPays, name: 'Subscriber Payments', type: 'bar' }; var trace3 = { x: years, y: opexVar, name: 'Variable - OPEX', type: 'bar' }; var trace4 = { x: years, y: opexFix, name: 'Fixed - OPEX', type: 'bar' }; var trace5 = { x: years, y: capex, name: 'CAPEX', type: 'line', color: 'green' }; var trace6 = { x: years, y: cashOUT, name: 'Cash OUTFLOWS', type: 'line', color: 'green' }; var trace7 = { x: years, y: usersMeoy, name: 'Activated USERS (M)', type: 'line', color: 'yellow' }; plotly.newPlot(pl, [ trace4, trace3, trace2, trace5, trace6, trace1, trace7], layout) return pl }34:[] 31:{"id":"6c0bedb206bb5de1","slug":"nbn-business-case-financials","title":"NBN Business Case - Financials","thumbnail":"fba0aab5356f5f6bc2abc4cce2a1cbc76a9b54df2f9af3c5f505abb6040249a1","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2018-03-09T01:38:58.616Z","update_time":"$D2025-11-07T01:04:10.073Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2018-03-09T09:00:51.857Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":2,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"0018576fb2fd42a8","login":"areff2000","name":"Richard Ferrers","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/bd016a1821a066a393fccf09562a2562008bedb29f8c0cd19a3b83fa5bf1a3dc","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":598,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"aeee6da9848a4b1c","login":"areff2000","name":"Richard Ferrers","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/bd016a1821a066a393fccf09562a2562008bedb29f8c0cd19a3b83fa5bf1a3dc","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"aeee6da9848a4b1c","login":"areff2000","name":"Richard Ferrers","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/bd016a1821a066a393fccf09562a2562008bedb29f8c0cd19a3b83fa5bf1a3dc","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":2,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"NBN Business Case - Financials","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# NBN Business Case - Financials`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":8,"value":"md`In response to an Enquiry by Joint Standing Committee on the NBN.
\n**Submissions Close**: 29 March 2018. See [Enquiry Home.](https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/National_Broadband_Network)
\nThis analysis is licensed: [CC-BY](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_Commons_license).`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":502,"value":"md`See link to parallel [NBN Asset/ Earnings Overview - 2014-2021](https://beta.observablehq.com/@areff2000/nbn-business-case-assets-earnings-overview-2014-2021).`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":433,"value":"md`## Analysis`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":565,"value":"md`[Link to NBN - Post 2021 Analysis](https://beta.observablehq.com/@areff2000/nbn-financials-from-2021-to-infinity-and-beyond) | [2019 Reassess](https://beta.observablehq.com/@areff2000/nbn-business-case-financials-update-2019)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":34,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":545,"value":"md`NB: EARNINGS (before DEPN, INT, TAX) is the gap between the REVENUE line and the EXPENSES bar (excluding DEPN, INT, TAX). A small EBITDA in 2020 and firstly cashflow positive in 2021. AFTER 2021 (ceteris paribus; all things staying the same) there is $2B Annual positive cashflow for TAX, INT repayment, further CAPEX eg upgrade of FTTN. On $25+11B CAPEX, about a 5.5% annual return.
\nTOTAL CASH OUTFLOWS 2016-21: $36B
\nTOTAL CAPEX 2016-21: $25B (pre2016 NBN CAPEX est. on Bal Sheet $11B)
\nTOTAL EBITDA 2016-21: $9B LOSS [(link)](https://beta.observablehq.com/@areff2000/nbn-business-case-assets-earnings-overview-2014-2021)
\nTOTAL CUST PAYS 2016-21; $11B - but there may be an argument to capitalise and match to revenue from these Customers?`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":39,"value":"md`SOURCE data: NBN [Strategic Plan 2018-21](https://www.nbnco.com.au/corporate-information/about-nbn-co/corporate-plan/corporate-plan.html) ^1; NBN Annual Report 2016-17 ^2; of revenue, opex, ebitda, capex:\nNB: 2017 CAPEX not all cash: intangibles (finance lease) $1.5B`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":36,"value":"md`Pickup; next to do: .`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":517,"value":"md`DEFINITIONS:
\nCAPEX: Capital Expenditure - ie cost to build NBN, includes leases of pits
\nEBITDA: EARNINGS before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation
\nOPEX: Operating Expenditure
\n=variable; varies in proportion to revenue
\n=fixed; remains flat, regardless of revenue
\nSubscriber Payments: payments to Telstra / Optus for transferring customers to NBN.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":419,"value":"md`## Data 2016 - 2021`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"years = { return [2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":217,"value":"md`Years:`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":61,"value":"arpuAvg = { return [30, 35, 36.0, 42.0, 50.0, 52, 50]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":493,"value":"arpuEOY = { return [43, 43, , , , ,52 ]}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":219,"value":"md`ARPU - average through year vs closing users = REV:
\nARPU: monthly average revenue per user`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":77,"value":"usersMeoy= { return [1.1, 2.4, 4.4, 6.9, 8.1, 8.6, 8.5, 8.75, 8.8, 8.8]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"md`Users (M) end of yr: ^1 p.39; ^2 p.7.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":126,"value":"opexVar = { return [0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.9]; } \n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":223,"value":"md`OPEX variable ($B): ^1 p.54; ^2 p.36.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":146,"value":"opexFix = { return [1.0, 1.3, 2.0, 2.0, 1.9, 2.0]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":225,"value":"md`OPEX Fixed ($B): ^1 p.54; ^2 p.36.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":151,"value":"subPays = { return [0.6, 1.6, 2.9, 3.4, 1.5, 0.3]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":227,"value":"md`Subscriber payments ($B): ^1 p.34; ^2 p.34`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":160,"value":"cashOUT = { return [6.8, 6.9, 11, 7.9, 2.4, -0.1]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":229,"value":"md`Cashflows Out ($B): ^1 p.34; ^2 p.101.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":155,"value":"capex = { return [4.7, 5.8, 7.0, 4.2, 1.6, 0.6]; }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":89,"value":"md`CAPEX ($B): ^1 p.32; ^2 p.41.
\nCAPEX IS Capital Expenditure, later depreciated over assets useful life.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":66,"value":"revenue = {\nvar values = [];\n for (let i = 0; i <= arpuAvg.length-1; ++i) \n { values.push(myRound(arpuAvg[i] * 12 * usersMeoy[i] /1000));\n }\n \n return (values); \n// pickup add other additions.\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"md`Revenue ($B): ^1 p.34; ^2 p.7.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":164,"value":" yr = myInt(sliderValue / 20 + 0.5 ) - 1\n// EBITDA \n// return (revenue[yr] - opexVar[yr] - opexFix[yr] - subPays[yr])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":197,"value":"html`In YR ${yr} (${yr+2016}) the EBITDA IS $B ${parseFloat(ebitda).toFixed(2)}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":171,"value":"ebitda = parseFloat(revenue[yr] - opexVar[yr] - opexFix[yr] - subPays[yr]).toFixed(2)\n// ebitda","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":272,"value":"html`In YR ${yr} (${yr+2016})
(REV: ${myRound(revenue[yr])})
(OpexVar: ${myRound(opexVar[yr])})
(OpexFix: ${myRound(opexFix[yr])})
(SUBS: ${myRound(subPays[yr])}) :
( => EBITDA: (${(ebitda)})REV - OPEX - SUBS
\nEBITDA is EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST, TAX, DEPECIATION AND AMORTISATION.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":184,"value":"slider = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":300,"value":"html`Select Year (2016 - 2020)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":192,"value":"sliderValue = Generators.input(slider)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":470,"value":"2 / 36\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"md`**Reference**: [Code](https://beta.observablehq.com/@mbostock/introduction-to-code) | [Html](https://beta.observablehq.com/@mbostock/introduction-to-html) | [5 min intro](https://beta.observablehq.com/@mbostock/five-minute-introduction) | [@Maegul](https://beta.observablehq.com/@maegul) | [Javascript Cheatsheet](https://www.codementor.io/johnnyb/javascript-cheatsheet-fb54lz08k) | [Obs Inputs](https://beta.observablehq.com/@jashkenas/inputs)|[Named Colours](https://beta.observablehq.com/@jashkenas/all-the-named-colors) (in Markdown)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":431,"value":"md`### Nuts and Bolts - under the hood`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":132,"value":"function myRound(name) {\n return parseFloat(name).toFixed(2);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":263,"value":"function myInt(name) {\n return parseFloat(name).toFixed(0);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":312,"value":"plotly = require('https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":314,"value":"d3 = require(\"https://d3js.org/d3.v5.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"