45:["$","title",null,{"children":"Cystic Fibrosis Survival | Asimov Press | Observable"}] 4d:T1a6f,const Plot = await import("https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@observablehq/plot@0.6.17/+esm"); // Year, median predicted survival age, lower 95% CI, upper 95% CI. // Graph-derived values rounded to 0.1 years, with five table-verified medians. const data = [ [1984, 24.6, 22.1, 26.0], [1985, 25.9, 24.2, 28.0], [1986, 27.1, 25.3, 29.0], [1987, 27.7, 26.3, 30.6], [1988, 28.2, 26.9, 30.9], [1989, 31.3, 29.0, 35.6], [1990, 31.9, 28.3, 35.6], [1991, 32.6, 29.2, 35.8], [1992, 32.9, 29.3, 36.4], [1993, 32.5, 29.7, 37.2], [1994, 31.4, 28.5, 33.9], [1995, 30.9, 28.7, 32.9], [1996, 31.7, 29.1, 33.8], [1997, 32.2, 29.6, 33.8], [1998, 32.9, 30.3, 34.8], [1999, 33.6, 32.2, 35.5], [2000, 35.5, 33.6, 37.4], [2001, 35.8, 33.7, 37.4], [2002, 36.7, 34.8, 38.5], [2003, 37.7, 35.9, 40.8], [2004, 39.6, 37.1, 43.3], [2005, 40.4, 37.6, 44.4], [2006, 44.3, 39.6, 46.9], [2007, 46.4, 41.6, 49.7], [2008, 46.5, 42.4, 49.8], [2009, 46.5, 42.2, 49.0], [2010, 47.6, 44.1, 50.9], [2011, 47.9, 44.9, 52.9], [2012, 49.0, 46.1, 53.1], [2013, 50.9, 47.5, 54.3], [2014, 53.0, 49.2, 57.1], [2015, 53.3, 50.5, 57.5], [2016, 53.3, 50.5, 56.9], [2017, 51.9, 48.2, 56.1], [2018, 50.8, 46.5, 56.9], [2019, 52.7, 48.4, 57.2], [2020, 55.1, 49.6, 59.2], [2021, 56.9, 50.7, 61.8], [2022, 59.2, 55.7, 62.3], [2023, 61.8, 58.3, 65.5], [2024, 64.3, 60.2, 69.8] ].map(([year, median, lower, upper]) => ({year, median, lower, upper})); const source = "https://cystic-fibrosis.cdn.prismic.io/cystic-fibrosis/aUWIlHNYClf9oh1P_2024-Annual-Data-Report-EN.pdf"; const teal = "#123236"; const red = "#C53630"; const hatchId = `cf-ci-${crypto.randomUUID()}`; const paper = "#FCFBF9"; const w = Math.min(width, 900); // Observable's reactive notebook width. const compact = w < 540; const figure = document.createElement("figure"); figure.className = "asimov-cf-chart"; figure.style.width = `${w}px`; figure.innerHTML = `

Expected lifespan with cystic fibrosis has more than doubled

Based on forty years of data from the Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry, which tracks the health of people with the disease.

Median predicted survival 95% confidence interval

`; const chart = Plot.plot({ width: Math.max(240, w - 40), height: compact ? 360 : 430, marginTop: 34, marginRight: 26, marginBottom: 58, marginLeft: 42, style: {background: paper, color: "#606060", fontFamily: "Inter, Arial, sans-serif", fontSize: "12px"}, ariaLabel: "Canadian cystic fibrosis median predicted survival age, from approximately 24.6 years in 1984 to 64.3 years in 2024, with 95 percent confidence intervals. Each year ends a five-year estimation period.", x: {domain: [1984, 2024], ticks: compact ? [1984, 2000, 2010, 2024] : [1984, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2024], tickFormat: d => String(d), tickSize: 0, tickPadding: 10, label: "Year →", labelAnchor: "center", labelOffset: 40, labelArrow: false}, y: {domain: [0, 75], ticks: [0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70], tickSize: 0, tickPadding: 8, label: "Predicted survival age (years)", labelArrow: false}, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70], {stroke: "#E3E0DA", strokeWidth: 0.7}), Plot.areaY(data, {x: "year", y1: "lower", y2: "upper", fill: `url(#${hatchId})`, curve: "linear"}), Plot.ruleY([0], {stroke: "#A5A39C", strokeWidth: 0.8}), Plot.lineY(data, {x: "year", y: "median", stroke: red, strokeWidth: 2.7, curve: "linear"}), Plot.dot(data, {x: "year", y: "median", r: 2, fill: red, tip: true, title: d => `${d.year - 4}–${d.year}\nMedian predicted survival: ${d.median.toFixed(1)} years\n95% CI: ${d.lower.toFixed(1)}–${d.upper.toFixed(1)} years`}), Plot.dot([data[0], data[data.length - 1]], {x: "year", y: "median", r: 4, fill: red, stroke: paper, strokeWidth: 1.5}), Plot.text([data[0]], {x: "year", y: "median", text: d => `${d.median.toFixed(1)} years`, dx: 8, dy: 21, textAnchor: "start", fill: teal, fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 600}), Plot.text([data[data.length - 1]], {x: "year", y: "upper", text: d => `${d.median.toFixed(1)} years`, dx: -2, dy: -12, textAnchor: "end", fill: teal, fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 600}) ] }); // Keep the hatch definition inside the SVG so it also survives SVG export. const defs = document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "defs"); defs.innerHTML = ` `; chart.prepend(defs); figure.append(chart); const notes = document.createElement("figcaption"); notes.className = "notes"; notes.innerHTML = `

This chart does not show the average age at which people with cystic fibrosis die. Instead, each point estimates the age beyond which half of a hypothetical birth cohort would survive if the death rates at each age stayed the same throughout life. Each estimate uses five years of data ending in the year shown.

Source: Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry, 2024 report.

`; figure.append(notes); display(figure); 4e:T1a6f,const Plot = await import("https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@observablehq/plot@0.6.17/+esm"); // Year, median predicted survival age, lower 95% CI, upper 95% CI. // Graph-derived values rounded to 0.1 years, with five table-verified medians. const data = [ [1984, 24.6, 22.1, 26.0], [1985, 25.9, 24.2, 28.0], [1986, 27.1, 25.3, 29.0], [1987, 27.7, 26.3, 30.6], [1988, 28.2, 26.9, 30.9], [1989, 31.3, 29.0, 35.6], [1990, 31.9, 28.3, 35.6], [1991, 32.6, 29.2, 35.8], [1992, 32.9, 29.3, 36.4], [1993, 32.5, 29.7, 37.2], [1994, 31.4, 28.5, 33.9], [1995, 30.9, 28.7, 32.9], [1996, 31.7, 29.1, 33.8], [1997, 32.2, 29.6, 33.8], [1998, 32.9, 30.3, 34.8], [1999, 33.6, 32.2, 35.5], [2000, 35.5, 33.6, 37.4], [2001, 35.8, 33.7, 37.4], [2002, 36.7, 34.8, 38.5], [2003, 37.7, 35.9, 40.8], [2004, 39.6, 37.1, 43.3], [2005, 40.4, 37.6, 44.4], [2006, 44.3, 39.6, 46.9], [2007, 46.4, 41.6, 49.7], [2008, 46.5, 42.4, 49.8], [2009, 46.5, 42.2, 49.0], [2010, 47.6, 44.1, 50.9], [2011, 47.9, 44.9, 52.9], [2012, 49.0, 46.1, 53.1], [2013, 50.9, 47.5, 54.3], [2014, 53.0, 49.2, 57.1], [2015, 53.3, 50.5, 57.5], [2016, 53.3, 50.5, 56.9], [2017, 51.9, 48.2, 56.1], [2018, 50.8, 46.5, 56.9], [2019, 52.7, 48.4, 57.2], [2020, 55.1, 49.6, 59.2], [2021, 56.9, 50.7, 61.8], [2022, 59.2, 55.7, 62.3], [2023, 61.8, 58.3, 65.5], [2024, 64.3, 60.2, 69.8] ].map(([year, median, lower, upper]) => ({year, median, lower, upper})); const source = "https://cystic-fibrosis.cdn.prismic.io/cystic-fibrosis/aUWIlHNYClf9oh1P_2024-Annual-Data-Report-EN.pdf"; const teal = "#123236"; const red = "#C53630"; const hatchId = `cf-ci-${crypto.randomUUID()}`; const paper = "#FCFBF9"; const w = Math.min(width, 900); // Observable's reactive notebook width. const compact = w < 540; const figure = document.createElement("figure"); figure.className = "asimov-cf-chart"; figure.style.width = `${w}px`; figure.innerHTML = `

Expected lifespan with cystic fibrosis has more than doubled

Based on forty years of data from the Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry, which tracks the health of people with the disease.

Median predicted survival 95% confidence interval

Source: Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry, 2024 report.

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