45:["$","title",null,{"children":"Predicting The Commons | James Tindall | Observable"}] 4d:T3086,viewof whips_and_rebellions = { const form = html``; const setRangeValueBar = (r_el, highlight = false) => { let is_whip = r_el.name.includes("whip"); let v = parseFloat(r_el.value), min = parseFloat(r_el.min), max = parseFloat(r_el.max); let pcnt = !is_whip ? ((v - min) / (max - min)) * 100 : (Math.abs(v) / (max - min)) * 100; let direction = !is_whip? "to right" : v < 0? "to left" : "to right"; r_el.setAttribute( "style", (is_whip ? v===0 ? `background: linear-gradient(${direction}, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 0%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 100%)` : direction==="to left" ? `background: linear-gradient(${direction}, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 0%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 50%, currentColor 50%, currentColor ${50 + pcnt}%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) ${50 + pcnt}%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 100%)` : `background: linear-gradient(${direction}, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 0%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 50%, currentColor 50%, currentColor ${50 + pcnt}%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) ${50 + pcnt}%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 100%)` :`background: linear-gradient(to right, currentColor 0%, currentColor ${pcnt}%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) ${pcnt}%, hsla(288, 5%, 80%, 0.4) 100%)`) ); }; const setRangeValueBars = (cr_el) => { for (let r_el of form.querySelectorAll(`input[type="range"]`)) { setRangeValueBar(r_el, cr_el === r_el); } }; const setFormValue = () => { form.value = { conservative_whip: form.conservative_whip.valueAsNumber, conservative_rebellion: form.conservative_rebellion.valueAsNumber, labour_whip: form.labour_whip.valueAsNumber, labour_rebellion: form.labour_rebellion.valueAsNumber } }; const oninput = e => { setRangeValueBars(e && e.target); setFormValue(); } form.addEventListener("input", oninput); form.addEventListener("click", function(e) { for (var target=e.target; target && target!=this; target=target.parentNode) { if (target.matches(".range-label")) { target.parentNode.parentNode.querySelector("input").value = target.getAttribute("data-value"); form.dispatchEvent(new Event("input", { bubbles: true })) break; } } }, false); oninput(); return form; }4e:Teff,viewof historical_votes = { const form = html`

Prediction Weightings From Historical Votes

With each Historical Vote you choose to tick below, weighting will be added to all MPs in the direction of Aye or No, depending on the options you choose for that vote.

${ curated_vote_record.Votes.reduce((s, v, i) => { let ihv = initial_historical_votes.Votes.find(hv => `${hv.ID}` === `${v.ID}`); let initial_support = ihv? ihv.Support : 1; let initial_abstain = ihv? ihv.AbstainCountsAs : 2; return `${s}

Division ID: ${v.ID} - ${v.Title} ${v.Description}

MPs will most likely vote the same way, the opposite way as in this vote.
MPs that abstained will most likely Vote Aye, Vote No, Abstain.

`; }, "") }

⧉ Copy

`; const clipboard_button = form.querySelector("#copy-votes"); const onChange = e => { form.value = {Votes:[]}; let vs = form.querySelectorAll(`input[type="checkbox"]:checked`); for (let v of vs) { let s_el = form .querySelector(`input[type="radio"][name="${v.getAttribute("data-index")}_support"]:checked`); let a_el = form .querySelector(`input[type="radio"][name="${v.getAttribute("data-index")}_abstain_means"]:checked`); form.value.Votes.push({ ID: v.value, Title: v.getAttribute("data-title"), Support: parseInt(s_el.value), AbstainCountsAs: parseInt(a_el.value) }); } let unsaved = JSON.stringify(form.value) !== JSON.stringify(initial_historical_votes); if (unsaved) { clipboard_button.classList.add("unsaved"); } else { clipboard_button.classList.remove("unsaved"); } return form.value; }; clipboard_button.addEventListener("click", e => { clipboard.writeText(`initial_historical_votes = (${JSON.stringify(onChange())})`); }); form.oninput = e => { e && e.preventDefault(); onChange(e); } form.onchange = e => { e && e.stopPropagation() && e.preventDefault(); form.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input", { bubbles: true })); } onChange(); return form; }4f:Tc2c,viewof tribalism = { const form = html`

Prediction Weightings From Political Groups

With each Political Group you choose to tick below, weighting will be added to the MPs included in that group in the direction of Aye or No, depending on which you select for that group.
Tip: Select "Order By: Weight of Conviction" when editing these settings.

${ political_groups.reduce((s, pg, i) => { let ipg = initial_political_groups.find(_pg => _pg.Name === pg.Name); let initial_support = ipg? ipg.Support : 0; return `${s} ${pg.Name}: MPs will most likely vote Aye, No, Abstain. `; }, "") }

⧉ Copy`; const clipboard_button = form.querySelector("#copy-groups"); const getSelectedGroups = e => { let spgs = form.querySelectorAll(`input[type="checkbox"]:checked`); let pgs = []; for (let pg of spgs) { let s = form.querySelector(`input[type="radio"][name="${pg.getAttribute("data-index")}_support"]:checked`); pgs.push({ Support: s? parseInt(s.value) : 0, Name: pg.name }); } return pgs; }; clipboard_button.addEventListener("click", e => clipboard.writeText(`initial_political_groups = (${JSON.stringify(getSelectedGroups())})`)); const onChange = e => { let settings = []; let pgs = Array.from(form.querySelectorAll(`input[type="checkbox"]:checked`)); for (let pg of pgs) { let s = form[`${pg.getAttribute("data-index")}_support`]; let g = political_groups.find(_pg => _pg.Name === pg.name); if (g) { settings.push( Object.assign({ Support: s? parseInt(s.value) : 0 }, g) ); } } form.value = settings; let unsaved = JSON.stringify(getSelectedGroups()) !== JSON.stringify(initial_political_groups); if (unsaved) { clipboard_button.classList.add("unsaved"); } else { clipboard_button.classList.remove("unsaved"); } }; form.oninput = e => { e && e.preventDefault(); onChange(e); } form.onchange = e => { e && e.stopPropagation() && e.preventDefault(); form.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input", { bubbles: true })); } onChange(); return form; }50:T69a,md`--- The emojiocracy Predicting The Commons tool enables the creation and publication of vote predictions while also providing the means of viewing and interacting with the resulting visualisation. The tool provides a means to adjust MP's predicted weight of conviction in either direction on the proposed vote. This is derived from the configured membership of selected political groups and tribes as well as the selected historical voting patterns. Once the Party Whips and any Rebellions (sliders only visible when "Order By" is set to "Vote") have been taken into account, these weightings will determine the outcome of the vote prediction. *The configuration as it is when the page first loads will have been configured this way by the prediction author, then saved to the Initial Settings section. Prediction viewers can, of course, also tinker with these configuration settings in order to adjust the prediction to their liking or simply experiment to see how weightings derived from historical voting patterns or political groups can be configured to predict vote results.* *While editing the settings above, we advise that you have the "Order By" setting (above the visualisation) set to "Weight Of Conviction Support/Against". This way, with each configuration change you will be able to view the evolving colour gradient that indicates the "terrian" of our MP's weight of conviction according to the weightings derived from the political groups and historical votes you or the prediction author have configured. These weightings, along with the whip and rebellion settings sliders above, will dictate the predicted direction in which each MP will cast their vote.*`51:T863,md` ---

## Initial Settings (edit only if authoring a new vote prediction) *These will be the settings used to populate the above "Configuration" on the initial page load.
You only need to change the settings below when creating your own vote prediction.* #### How To Author Your Own Vote Prediction 1. First thing you will need to do is to sign up for an [Observable account](https://observablehq.com/). 2. Next, create your own version of this visualisation so that you can save and publish your changes. To do this, first click on the ellipsis at the top of this page, then click "Fork". The page will reload with your own unique version of this visualisation. 3. Edit the "Initial Settings" below. * Edit the predicted [vote_title](#vote_title), [vote_date](#vote_date), main party whips and rebellions. To do this, click in the margin to the left of the cell you wish to edit, make your changes then click the blue arrow in the top right to save them. * Edit the inital weightings based on political groups. To do this edit the "Prediction Weightings From Political Groups" in the Configuration section above, then click the copy button and paste your chosen config into the initial_political_groups cell below (click in the margin to the left of the cell to expand it, then paste in your config and click the blue arrow in the top right corner to save). * Edit the inital weightings based on historical votes. To do this edit the "Prediction Weightings From Historical Votes" in the Configuration section above, then click the copy button and paste your chosen config into the initial_historical_votes cell below (click in the margin to the left of the cell to expand it, then paste in your config and click the blue arrow in the top right corner to save). 4. Obviously you may need to repeat the above steps until you're completely happy with your vote prediction. Finally when you're satisfied with your predicted result, click the publish button in the top right of the page and share the link with the world. Be sure to cc [@emojiocracy](https://twitter.com/emojiocracy) if you share it on twitter! ---`52:T574,predicted_vote_result = { mutable data_loading = true; const pt = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(commons_vote_result_prediction_template)); for (let v of pt.Votes) { let mp = (weightings.find(mp => `${mp.MemberID}` === `${v.MemberID}`) || {MemberID: v.MemberID, Support: 0}); let support = mp.Support; if (["Labour","Conservative", "Democratic Unionist Party"].includes(v.Party)) { let whip = v.Party === "Labour"? whips_and_rebellions.labour_whip : whips_and_rebellions.conservative_whip; let rebellion = v.Party === "Labour" ? whips_and_rebellions.labour_rebellion : whips_and_rebellions.conservative_rebellion; if (support === 0) { support = 0.1 * whip; } // rebellion should serve to exagerate each MP's historical convictions expressed in the weightings support += (support * Math.pow(1 + (rebellion - 0.1), 6) * rebellion) + (whip * 0.35); } if (Math.abs(support) > mp.AbstainWeight) { v.Type = (v.Party === "Sinn Féin" || support === 0)? 2 : support <= 0? 0 : 1; } else { v.Type = 2; } } pt.Ayes = pt.Votes.filter(v => v.Type === 1).length; pt.Noes = pt.Votes.filter(v => v.Type === 0).length; pt.DidNotVote = pt.Votes.filter(v => v.Type === 2).length; let r = Object.assign({}, pt, {Title: vote_title, Date: vote_date }); mutable data_loading = false; return r; }53:Tcd0,political_groups = { const pgs = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(political_groups_cached)); pgs.find(pg => pg.Name === "Government Payroll").MPs = MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Conservative" && mp.Post).map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })); pgs.find(pg => pg.Name === "Official Opposition Payroll").MPs = MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Labour" && mp.Post).map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })); pgs.find(pg => pg.Name === "Cabinet").MPs = cabinet_MPs_cached.map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName }));; pgs.find(pg => pg.Name === "Shadow Cabinet").MPs = shadow_cabinet_MPs_cached.map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })); pgs.find(pg => pg.Name === "Front Bench").MPs = MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Conservative" && mp.FrontBench).map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })); pgs.find(pg => pg.Name === "Shadow Front Bench").MPs = MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Labour" && mp.FrontBench).map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Conservative", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Conservative").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Labour", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Labour").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Scottish National Party", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Scottish National Party").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "The Independent Group", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "The Independent Group").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Liberal Democrat", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Liberal Democrat").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Plaid Cymru", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Plaid Cymru").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Independent", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Independent").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Green Party", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Green Party").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); pgs.push({ ID: pgs.length, Name: "Democratic Unionist Party", Type: "members", MPs: MPs_combined_cached.filter(mp => mp.Party === "Democratic Unionist Party").map(mp => ({ MemberID: mp.MemberID, FirstAndLastName: mp.FirstAndLastName })) }); return pgs; }54:T591,weightings = { let w = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(commons_vote_prediction_weightings_template)); w.forEach(w => { w.AbstainWeight = 0; w.Supportpg = 0; w.Supporthv = 0; }); for (let pg of selected_political_groups) { let pg_mps = pg.MPs.map(mp => `${mp.MemberID}`); w.filter(w_mp => pg_mps.includes(`${w_mp.MemberID}`)) .forEach(mp => { mp.Supportpg += pg.Support; if (pg.Support === 0) { mp.AbstainWeight += 1; } }); } if (selected_historical_votes.Votes.length) { for (let v_mp of MPs_weightings_from_historical_votes) { let mp = w.find(mp => `${mp.MemberID}` === `${v_mp.MemberID}`); if (mp) { mp.Supporthv += v_mp.Support; mp.AbstainWeight += v_mp.AbstainWeight; } } } let hv_support_range = w.map(mp => Math.abs(mp.Supporthv)); let hv_support_extent = Math.max(...hv_support_range); let abstain_range = w.map(mp => mp.AbstainWeight) .reduce((aws, mp) => { aws.add(mp.AbstainWeight); return aws; }, new Set()); let abstain_extent = Math.max(3, 2 * abstain_range.size); w.forEach(mp => { mp.Support = Math.abs(mp.Supporthv) > 0? mp.Supporthv / hv_support_extent : 0; mp.Support += mp.Supportpg; mp.AbstainWeight = (typeof mp.AbstainWeight !== undefined && Math.abs(mp.AbstainWeight) > 0) ? +(mp.AbstainWeight / abstain_extent).toFixed(3) : 0; }); return w; }55:[] 49:{"id":"4d56c1488c5fb171","slug":"predicting-the-commons-v2","title":"Predicting The Commons","thumbnail":"ede79393a9d968cdbbcdf39e04e826d03a37a49085174cc52aae2d4ac487814c","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2019-02-28T08:13:56.602Z","update_time":"$D2019-04-02T09:23:13.180Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2019-02-28T09:01:48.192Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":{"id":"5fd211c76f7722e6","slug":"predicting-the-commons","title":"Predicting The Commons (v1)","owner":{"id":"b5a62e64db3946c6","login":"atomless","name":"James Tindall"}},"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"b5a62e64db3946c6","login":"atomless","name":"James Tindall","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1c1df0dca5363f6e4eec502d26be8498a6d0312199418a8f570c9393fae8bdd0","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":2088,"publish_version":2088,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"d35d3a4798c13c95","login":"atomless","name":"James Tindall","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1c1df0dca5363f6e4eec502d26be8498a6d0312199418a8f570c9393fae8bdd0","tier":null,"bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"d35d3a4798c13c95","login":"atomless","name":"James Tindall","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1c1df0dca5363f6e4eec502d26be8498a6d0312199418a8f570c9393fae8bdd0","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":12,"collection":{"id":"bca0344e9dc1313d","slug":"emojiocracy","title":"Emojiocracy","owner":{"id":"b5a62e64db3946c6","login":"atomless","name":"James Tindall"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Predicting The Commons","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Predicting The Commons\n${sources}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":25,"value":"viewof n = html`∞ Selected Vote, House of Commons, ${(new Date(vote_date)).toLocaleDateString(\"en-UK\", { weekday: 'long', year: 'numeric', month: 'long', day: 'numeric' }) || ''}

${vote_title}

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