34:["$","title",null,{"children":"Tracking Alliances and Opposition during the Syrian Civil War | Benji | Observable"}] 3c:T697e,/* * Syria conflict network: alliance-cell chart. * * Each year, armed factions (small dots) sit inside alliance cells (big * circles). Cells are the alliance communities found in the data * (scripts/build_network.py). When a faction changes allies, its dot leaves one cell and floats into another, and * both cells resize because a cell's size is the total size of its dots. * * An alliance is not necessarily formal, it is derived from the data where each faction fights alongside each other. * * Arguments: * d3 d3 library * topojson the topojson-client library (turns the world map file into shapes) * network parsed data/processed/network.json * world parsed world-atlas countries-50m.json (Natural Earth borders) * options {width, minEdge, showGeneric} */ function createChart(d3, topojson, network, world, options = {}) { // ------------------------------------------------------------------ settings const width = options.width ?? 960; // chart width in px (Observable passes `width`) const height = Math.round(width * 0.72); // keep a fixed aspect ratio for the map let minEdge = options.minEdge ?? 25; // hide cell-to-cell edges below this many events let showGeneric = options.showGeneric ?? true; // draw catch-all / unidentified actors? const displayMin = network.meta.display_min_events; // a faction needs this many events in a year to get a dot const alliedMin = network.meta.allied_min_weight; // weakest allied link that counts as an alliance // bloc -> CSS color variable (values in the style block below); grey is // reserved for "other" and "unidentified". Note: government green and ISIS // magenta are hard to tell apart with red-green colorblindness, so cells are // also labelled and every dot names its bloc in the tooltip. const BLOC_VAR = { government: "--bloc-government", opposition: "--bloc-opposition", us_aligned: "--bloc-us", turkey_aligned: "--bloc-turkey", isis: "--bloc-isis", other: "--bloc-other", unidentified: "--bloc-unid", }; const BLOC_LABEL = { government: "Syrian government & allies", opposition: "Opposition / rebels", us_aligned: "US-aligned (SDF, Coalition)", turkey_aligned: "Turkey-aligned (SNA)", isis: "Islamic State", other: "Other", unidentified: "Unidentified", }; const blocColor = (bloc) => `var(${BLOC_VAR[bloc] ?? "--bloc-other"})`; // quick lookups: faction id -> faction record, year -> year block const factionById = new Map(network.factions.map((f) => [f.id, f])); const yearByNumber = new Map(network.years.map((y) => [y.year, y])); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ DOM skeleton // outer

holds the styles, the SVG, the tooltip and the legend const root = document.createElement("div"); root.className = "syria-net"; root.innerHTML = ` `; // the SVG drawing surface; viewBox makes it scale down on narrow screens const svg = d3.select(root).append("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .attr("width", width).attr("height", height); // layers, drawn bottom to top: map, edges, cells, dots, labels const gMap = svg.append("g"); const gEdges = svg.append("g"); const gCells = svg.append("g"); const gDots = svg.append("g"); const gLabels = svg.append("g"); // big year number + data source in the top-left corner const yearText = svg.append("text").attr("class", "year-label").attr("x", 16).attr("y", 48); const sourceText = svg.append("text").attr("class", "source-label").attr("x", 18).attr("y", 68); // floating tooltip

, positioned next to the mouse const tooltip = d3.select(root).append("div").attr("class", "tooltip"); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ basemap // world-atlas stores countries as TopoJSON; convert to GeoJSON features const countries = topojson.feature(world, world.objects.countries).features; const syria = countries.find((c) => c.id === "760"); // 760 = ISO code of Syria // Mercator projection zoomed so Syria fills the frame (with room for the year label) const projection = d3.geoMercator() .fitExtent([[width * 0.06, height * 0.08], [width * 0.94, height * 0.97]], syria); const geoPath = d3.geoPath(projection); // turns features into SVG paths gMap.selectAll("path").data(countries).join("path") .attr("d", geoPath) .attr("fill", (d) => (d.id === "760" ? "var(--land-syria)" : "var(--land)")) .attr("stroke", "var(--border)") .attr("stroke-width", (d) => (d.id === "760" ? 1.2 : 0.6)); // Names of the neighbouring countries (Syria itself is implied). Each label // sits at a hand-picked [longitude, latitude] just across the border, because // a country's geometric center (e.g. central Turkey) is far outside the frame. const NEIGHBORS = [ { name: "TURKEY", at: [37.2, 37.35] }, { name: "IRAQ", at: [41.9, 33.9] }, { name: "JORDAN", at: [37.6, 32.45] }, { name: "LEBANON", at: [35.75, 34.05] }, { name: "ISRAEL", at: [35.15, 32.75] }, ]; gMap.selectAll("text.country-label").data(NEIGHBORS).join("text") .attr("class", "country-label") .attr("x", (d) => projection(d.at)[0]) // lon/lat -> pixel position .attr("y", (d) => projection(d.at)[1]) .text((d) => d.name); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ scales // dot area is proportional to events (scaleSqrt maps value -> radius so area ~ value). // One shared domain across all years, so dot sizes are comparable between years. const maxEvents = d3.max(network.years, (y) => d3.max(y.nodes, (n) => n.events)); const rDot = d3.scaleSqrt().domain([0, maxEvents]).range([0, width / 22]); const radius = (n) => Math.max(3, rDot(n.events)); // never smaller than 3px // edge width ~ sqrt of the number of events between two cells const wEdge = d3.scaleSqrt().domain([0, 2000]).range([0, 10]).clamp(true); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ simulation state // Dot objects persist between years (keyed by faction id) so the force // simulation can move them smoothly instead of redrawing from scratch. const dots = new Map(); // faction id -> {id, x, y, r, cell, ...} const cells = new Map(); // community id -> {id, x, y, r, label, bloc} let selected = null; // faction id the user clicked (ego network), or null let current = null; // the year block currently shown // Force simulation for the dots. Each tick, d3 nudges every dot toward its // cell center (forceX/forceY) and pushes overlapping dots apart (forceCollide). const sim = d3.forceSimulation() .force("x", d3.forceX((d) => cells.get(d.cell)?.x ?? width / 2).strength(0.045)) .force("y", d3.forceY((d) => cells.get(d.cell)?.y ?? height / 2).strength(0.045)) .force("collide", d3.forceCollide((d) => d.r + 1.5).iterations(2)) .alphaDecay(0.001) // how fast the motion settles (higher = sooner) .on("tick", ticked); sim.stop(); // do not run until the first update() // d3 normally runs one simulation tick per screen refresh, so a 144 Hz monitor // plays the motion 2.4x faster than a 60 Hz laptop. Instead we step the // simulation ourselves at a fixed rate, based on real elapsed time. const TICKS_PER_SECOND = 30; // matches a 60 Hz screen, where the motion was tuned let clock = null; // the d3.timer currently driving the simulation function runSim() { if (clock) clock.stop(); // a new year interrupts the previous motion let done = 0; // ticks already run in this motion clock = d3.timer((elapsed) => { // how many ticks *should* have happened by now, given the real time passed const due = Math.floor((elapsed / 1000) * TICKS_PER_SECOND); if (due > done) { sim.tick(Math.min(due - done, 10)); // catch up, at most 10 steps at once (e.g. after a hidden tab) done = due; ticked(); // sim.tick() doesn't fire "tick" events, so redraw by hand } if (sim.alpha() < sim.alphaMin()) clock.stop(); // motion has settled: stop the timer }); } // ------------------------------------------------------------------ layout for one year /** Which nodes of a year get drawn as dots. */ function visibleNodes(year) { return year.nodes.filter((n) => { const f = factionById.get(n.f); if (!showGeneric && f.generic && !f.pooled) return false; // option: hide catch-all labels return n.events >= displayMin; // agreed display threshold }); } /** * Place the cells for a year. A cell is anchored at the event-weighted center * of its members' locations (so it sits where its factions actually fought), * then a short static force simulation pushes overlapping cells apart. */ function layoutCells(year, nodes) { const meta = new Map(year.communities.map((c) => [c.id, c])); const groups = d3.group(nodes, (n) => n.c); // community id -> its visible nodes const out = []; for (const [id, members] of groups) { // anchor = average projected position, weighted by each member's events let sx = 0, sy = 0, sw = 0; for (const n of members) { if (n.lat == null) continue; // no located events const [px, py] = projection([n.lon, n.lat]); // lon/lat -> pixels sx += px * n.events; sy += py * n.events; sw += n.events; } const ax = sw ? sx / sw : width / 2; const ay = sw ? sy / sw : height / 2; // cell radius: big enough to hold its dots packed loosely (area sum * 1.6) const r = Math.sqrt(d3.sum(members, (n) => radius(n) ** 2) * 1.6) + 6; const prev = cells.get(id); // start where it was last year out.push({ id, ax, ay, r, x: prev?.x ?? ax, y: prev?.y ?? ay, label: meta.get(id)?.label ?? "", bloc: meta.get(id)?.bloc ?? "other", size: members.length, }); } // static simulation: pull each cell to its anchor, keep cells from overlapping const cellSim = d3.forceSimulation(out) .force("x", d3.forceX((d) => d.ax).strength(0.25)) .force("y", d3.forceY((d) => d.ay).strength(0.25)) .force("collide", d3.forceCollide((d) => d.r + 6).iterations(3)) .stop(); for (let i = 0; i < 220; i++) cellSim.tick(); // run it to the end, without animating for (const c of out) { // keep cells inside the frame c.x = Math.max(c.r, Math.min(width - c.r, c.x)); c.y = Math.max(c.r, Math.min(height - c.r, c.y)); } return out; } /** * Edges between cells: sum the faction-level edges whose two ends sit in * different cells. Edges inside a cell are hidden (they are what makes it a cell). */ function cellEdges(year, nodeById) { const sums = new Map(); // "type|a|b" -> total weight const add = (type, list, minW) => { for (const e of list) { if (e.w < minW) continue; const a = nodeById.get(e.a), b = nodeById.get(e.b); if (!a || !b || a.c === b.c) continue; // hidden node, or same cell const [c1, c2] = a.c < b.c ? [a.c, b.c] : [b.c, a.c]; const key = `${type}|${c1}|${c2}`; sums.set(key, (sums.get(key) ?? 0) + e.w); } }; add("hostile", year.hostile, 1); add("allied", year.allied, alliedMin); return [...sums].map(([key, w]) => { const [type, c1, c2] = key.split("|"); return { type, source: +c1, target: +c2, w }; }).filter((e) => e.w >= minEdge); // user-controlled clutter filter } /** * Edges of one selected faction (its ego network), dot to dot. */ function egoEdges(year, fid, nodeById) { const out = []; for (const [type, list, minW] of [["hostile", year.hostile, 1], ["allied", year.allied, alliedMin]]) { for (const e of list) { if ((e.a !== fid && e.b !== fid) || e.w < minW) continue; if (!nodeById.get(e.a) || !nodeById.get(e.b)) continue; // other end not drawn this year out.push({ type, a: e.a, b: e.b, w: e.w }); } } return out; } // ------------------------------------------------------------------ drawing /** Move the chart to a year. Called by the slider. */ function update(yearNumber) { const year = yearByNumber.get(yearNumber); if (!year) return; current = year; const nodes = visibleNodes(year); const nodeById = new Map(nodes.map((n) => [n.f, n])); // --- cells const cellList = layoutCells(year, nodes); cells.clear(); for (const c of cellList) cells.set(c.id, c); const t = svg.transition().duration(900).ease(d3.easeCubicInOut); // shared animation timing gCells.selectAll("circle.cell") .data(cellList, (d) => d.id) // key by community id .join( (enter) => enter.append("circle").attr("class", "cell") .attr("cx", (d) => d.x).attr("cy", (d) => d.y).attr("r", 0), // new cells grow from 0 (upd) => upd, (exit) => exit.transition(t).attr("r", 0).remove(), // dissolved cells shrink away ) .attr("fill", (d) => blocColor(d.bloc)) .attr("stroke", (d) => blocColor(d.bloc)) .on("mousemove", (event, d) => showTip(event, `${d.label}${BLOC_LABEL[d.bloc]} - ${d.size} faction${d.size > 1 ? "s" : ""} shown`)) .on("mouseleave", hideTip) .transition(t) .attr("cx", (d) => d.x).attr("cy", (d) => d.y).attr("r", (d) => d.r); // cell labels: only for cells big enough to have room, and never on top of each other gLabels.selectAll("text.cell-label") .data(placeLabels(cellList), (d) => d.id) .join((enter) => enter.append("text").attr("class", "cell-label") .attr("x", (d) => d.x).attr("y", (d) => d.y - d.r - 4)) .text((d) => shorten(d.label, 34)) .transition(t) .attr("x", (d) => d.x).attr("y", (d) => d.y - d.r - 4); // --- dots: update the persistent dot objects, then (re)start the simulation const alive = new Set(); for (const n of nodes) { alive.add(n.f); const cell = cells.get(n.c); let d = dots.get(n.f); if (!d) { // a faction appearing for the first time starts at its cell center d = { id: n.f, x: cell.x + Math.random() * 4, y: cell.y + Math.random() * 4 }; dots.set(n.f, d); } Object.assign(d, { cell: n.c, r: radius(n), node: n, faction: factionById.get(n.f) }); } for (const id of [...dots.keys()]) if (!alive.has(id)) dots.delete(id); // forget inactive factions const dotList = [...dots.values()]; gDots.selectAll("circle.dot") .data(dotList, (d) => d.id) .join( (enter) => enter.append("circle").attr("class", "dot") .attr("cx", (d) => d.x).attr("cy", (d) => d.y).attr("r", 0) .on("mousemove", (event, d) => showTip(event, dotTip(d))) .on("mouseleave", hideTip) .on("click", (event, d) => { // click = show this faction's edges event.stopPropagation(); selected = selected === d.id ? null : d.id; drawEdges(); }), (upd) => upd, (exit) => exit.transition(t).attr("r", 0).remove(), ) .classed("generic", (d) => d.faction.generic && !d.faction.pooled) .attr("fill", (d) => blocColor(d.faction.bloc)) // dot color = the faction's own bloc // ring thickness = share of the faction's events that targeted civilians .attr("stroke-width", (d) => 0.5 + 3.5 * civShare(d.node)) .transition(t) .attr("r", (d) => d.r); if (selected !== null && !dots.has(selected)) selected = null; // selected faction gone this year sim.nodes(dotList); // give the simulation the new dot list sim.alpha(0.9); // kick it, so dots glide to their (possibly new) cells runSim(); // ...stepped at a fixed rate, the same on every screen // --- labels yearText.text(year.year); sourceText.text(`Source: ${year.source} - sizes = events - ${year.death_measure}`); drawEdges(t); } /** * Choose which cell labels to show. Labels go above their cell; biggest cells * are placed first, and a label is skipped if its box would overlap a label * already placed. (Skipped cells are still named in their tooltip.) */ function placeLabels(cellList) { const placed = []; // boxes of labels already kept const keep = []; for (const c of [...cellList].sort((a, b) => b.r - a.r)) { // biggest first if (c.r <= 22) continue; // too small to label const w = Math.min(c.label.length, 34) * 6.2; // rough text width at 11px const box = { x0: c.x - w / 2, x1: c.x + w / 2, y0: c.y - c.r - 16, y1: c.y - c.r - 2 }; const hit = placed.some((b) => box.x0 < b.x1 && box.x1 > b.x0 && box.y0 < b.y1 && box.y1 > b.y0); if (hit) continue; // would collide: leave it to the tooltip placed.push(box); keep.push(c); } return keep; } /** Draw either the cell-level edges or, if a faction is selected, its own edges. */ function drawEdges(t = svg.transition().duration(300)) { if (!current) return; const nodes = visibleNodes(current); const nodeById = new Map(nodes.map((n) => [n.f, n])); let data; if (selected === null) { // cell to cell: endpoints are cell centers (cell layout is already final) data = cellEdges(current, nodeById).map((e) => ({ key: `${e.type}|c${e.source}|${e.target}`, type: e.type, w: e.w, from: () => cells.get(e.source), to: () => cells.get(e.target), })); } else { // ego network: endpoints are dots, which are still moving, so they are // re-read every simulation tick (see ticked()) data = egoEdges(current, selected, nodeById).map((e) => ({ key: `${e.type}|f${e.a}|${e.b}`, type: e.type, w: e.w, from: () => dots.get(e.a), to: () => dots.get(e.b), })); } gEdges.selectAll("path.edge") .data(data, (d) => d.key) .join("path") .attr("class", (d) => `edge ${d.type}`) .attr("stroke-width", (d) => Math.max(1, wEdge(d.w))) .attr("stroke-opacity", selected === null ? 0.45 : 0.8) .attr("d", edgePath); // fade every dot that is not the selected faction or one of its partners const partners = new Set(selected === null ? [] : data.flatMap((d) => [d.from()?.id, d.to()?.id]).concat(selected)); gDots.selectAll("circle.dot").classed("faded", (d) => selected !== null && !partners.has(d.id)); } /** A gently curved path between two circles (so parallel edges don't overlap). */ function edgePath(d) { const a = d.from(), b = d.to(); if (!a || !b) return null; const mx = (a.x + b.x) / 2, my = (a.y + b.y) / 2; // midpoint const dx = b.x - a.x, dy = b.y - a.y; // bend hostile edges one way and allied edges the other way const bend = (d.type === "hostile" ? 0.12 : -0.12); return `M${a.x},${a.y} Q${mx - dy * bend},${my + dx * bend} ${b.x},${b.y}`; } /** Called by the simulation every animation frame: move the dots (and ego edges). */ function ticked() { for (const d of dots.values()) { // keep dots inside the chart d.x = Math.max(d.r, Math.min(width - d.r, d.x)); d.y = Math.max(d.r, Math.min(height - d.r, d.y)); } gDots.selectAll("circle.dot").attr("cx", (d) => d.x).attr("cy", (d) => d.y); if (selected !== null) gEdges.selectAll("path.edge").attr("d", edgePath); } // clicking empty space clears the selection svg.on("click", () => { if (selected !== null) { selected = null; drawEdges(); } }); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ tooltip helpers function civShare(n) { return n.events ? n.civ_events / n.events : 0; // 0..1 } /** HTML for a dot's tooltip: identity, cell, numbers, strongest partners. */ function dotTip(d) { const n = d.node, f = d.faction, y = current; const cell = cells.get(n.c); const top = (list, minW) => list .filter((e) => (e.a === n.f || e.b === n.f) && e.w >= minW) .sort((p, q) => q.w - p.w).slice(0, 3) .map((e) => `${factionById.get(e.a === n.f ? e.b : e.a).label} (${e.w})`).join(", ") || "none"; return `${f.label} ${BLOC_LABEL[f.bloc]}${f.generic ? " - catch-all label" : ""}
In cell: ${cell ? shorten(cell.label, 40) : "-"}
${n.events.toLocaleString()} events - ${n.deaths.toLocaleString()} deaths (${y.death_measure})
Civilian-targeting: ${n.civ_events.toLocaleString()} events (${Math.round(civShare(n) * 100)}%)
Allied with: ${top(y.allied, alliedMin)}
Fought: ${top(y.hostile, 1)}
Click to show its connections`; } function showTip(event, html) { const [x, y] = d3.pointer(event, root); // mouse position inside the chart tooltip.html(html).style("display", "block") .style("left", `${Math.min(x + 14, root.clientWidth - 290)}px`) .style("top", `${y + 14}px`); } function hideTip() { tooltip.style("display", "none"); } function shorten(s, n) { return s.length > n ? s.slice(0, n - 1) + "…" : s; } // ------------------------------------------------------------------ legend + attribution const legend = d3.select(root).append("div").attr("class", "legend"); for (const bloc of ["government", "opposition", "us_aligned", "turkey_aligned", "isis", "other", "unidentified"]) { legend.append("span").html( `${BLOC_LABEL[bloc]}`); } legend.append("span").html( `Fought each other`); legend.append("span").html( `Fought on the same side`); legend.append("span").html( `Thicker ring = more civilian targeting`); d3.select(root).append("div").attr("class", "attribution").html( `Dots: armed factions (area = events that year; shown if ≥ ${displayMin} events). ` + `Cells: alliance communities detected from co-fighting (≥ ${alliedMin} shared events). ` + `Data: UCDP (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), ucdp.uu.se, GED 26.1 & Dyadic 26.1, 2011–2016 - ` + `ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), acleddata.com, Syria, 2017–2024, ` + `battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians - Borders: Natural Earth. ` + `UCDP deaths are estimates; ACLED fatalities are reported.`); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ public API root.update = update; // chart.update(year) root.setOptions = (opts) => { // chart.setOptions({minEdge, showGeneric}) if (opts.minEdge !== undefined) minEdge = opts.minEdge; if (opts.showGeneric !== undefined) showGeneric = opts.showGeneric; if (current) update(current.year); }; root.years = network.years.map((y) => y.year); // handy for building the slider return root; } 3d:Td51,/** * H1 metric: of the alliances that exist in year t, what share still exist in year t+1? Computed separately for * three kinds of pairs: * "Both state actors" e.g. Syrian government + Russia * "Involves a small group" at least one non-state faction below `smallMax` events in the phase * "Large non-state groups" everything else (e.g. SDF + YPG, or a state + a * large group) * * Only pairs whose two factions are BOTH still active in t+1 are counted, so an alliance does not "break" just * because a group stopped fighting or disappeared. * * options.smallMax -- events in a phase below which a non-state faction is considered "small" */ function h1Data(network, { smallMax = 1000 } = {}) { const meta = network.meta; const fac = new Map(network.factions.map((f) => [f.id, f])); // size class of one faction in one phase const sizeClass = (f, year) => { if (f.actor_class === "state") return "state"; const ev = year <= 2016 ? f.events_A : f.events_B; // events in that faction's phase return ev < smallMax ? "small" : "large"; }; // class of a pair, from its two members' size classes const pairClass = (a, b, year) => { const ca = sizeClass(fac.get(a), year), cb = sizeClass(fac.get(b), year); if (ca === "state" && cb === "state") return "Both state actors"; if (ca === "small" || cb === "small") return "Involves a small group"; return "Large non-state groups"; }; // alliances per year, as a Set of "a-b" keys (analyzed factions only) const alliances = new Map(); // year -> Set of pair keys const active = new Map(); // year -> Set of faction ids active that year for (const y of network.years) { const events = new Map(y.nodes.map((n) => [n.f, n.events])); active.set(y.year, new Set(y.nodes.map((n) => n.f))); const set = new Set(); for (const e of y.allied) { if (fac.get(e.a).generic || fac.get(e.b).generic) continue; // catch-all labels excluded if (isAlliance(e, events, meta)) set.add(`${e.a}-${e.b}`); } alliances.set(y.year, set); } // count kept / total per (year, class) const counts = new Map(); // "year|class" -> {year, cls, kept, total} for (const y of network.years) { const t = y.year, next = t + 1; if (!alliances.has(next) || t === 2016) continue; // last year, or source switch for (const key of alliances.get(t)) { const [a, b] = key.split("-").map(Number); if (!active.get(next).has(a) || !active.get(next).has(b)) continue; // one side inactive const cls = pairClass(a, b, t); const k = `${t}|${cls}`; if (!counts.has(k)) counts.set(k, { year: t, cls, phase: phaseOf(t), kept: 0, total: 0 }); const c = counts.get(k); c.total += 1; if (alliances.get(next).has(key)) c.kept += 1; // still allied next year } } const byYear = [...counts.values()].map((c) => ({ ...c, rate: c.kept / c.total })); // pooled over each phase: one rate per class (the headline numbers) const overall = []; for (const [phase, rows] of d3group(byYear, (d) => d.phase)) { for (const [cls, rs] of d3group(rows, (d) => d.cls)) { const kept = rs.reduce((s, r) => s + r.kept, 0), total = rs.reduce((s, r) => s + r.total, 0); overall.push({ phase, cls, kept, total, rate: kept / total }); } } return { byYear, overall, smallMax }; } 3e:T935,/** H1 chart: share of alliances still in place one year later, by pair class. */ function h1Chart(Plot, h1, { width = 900 } = {}) { const classes = ["Both state actors", "Large non-state groups", "Involves a small group"]; // light grey, yellow, violet. This chart has its own legend and direct labels; // green/blue/magenta are avoided so no line looks like government/US/ISIS. const colors = ["#c3c2b7", "#c98500", "#9085e9"]; return Plot.plot({ width, height: 340, marginRight: 150, style: DARK.style, // dark background + light text x: { label: "Year t (alliance checked again in t + 1)", tickFormat: "d", domain: [2011, 2024] }, // percent: true multiplies values by 100 BEFORE the domain applies, so the domain is 0-100 y: { label: "Alliances still in place a year later (%)", percent: true, domain: [0, 100], grid: true }, color: { domain: classes, range: colors, legend: true }, r: { range: [2, 9] }, // dot area ~ number of alliances marks: [ // shaded band marks the source switch (no 2016 -> 2017 comparison) Plot.rectX([{ x1: 2015.5, x2: 2016.5 }], { x1: "x1", x2: "x2", fill: DARK.grid, fillOpacity: 0.18 }), Plot.text([{ x: 2016, y: 0.95 }], { x: "x", y: "y", text: () => "source\nswitch", fill: DARK.muted, fontSize: 10 }), // lines per class, broken at the phase boundary (z groups by class AND phase) Plot.lineY(h1.byYear, { x: "year", y: "rate", stroke: "cls", z: (d) => d.cls + d.phase, strokeWidth: 2 }), Plot.dot(h1.byYear, { x: "year", y: "rate", fill: "cls", r: "total", stroke: "#1a1a19", strokeWidth: 1, tip: true, // ring = background color title: (d) => `${d.cls}, ${d.year} → ${d.year + 1}\n${d.kept} of ${d.total} alliances kept (${Math.round(d.rate * 100)}%)`, }), // direct labels at the right end of each line (identity is not color alone) Plot.text(h1.byYear, Plot.selectLast({ x: "year", y: "rate", z: "cls", text: "cls", fill: "cls", dx: 8, textAnchor: "start", fontSize: 11, })), ], caption: `Small group = non-state faction with fewer than ${h1.smallMax.toLocaleString()} events in its phase. ` + `Dot size = number of alliances checked. Pairs where either group stopped fighting are not counted.`, }); }3f:T7bd,/** * H2 metric: number of distinct allies (allied degree) of every active analyzed faction, per year, using the same alliance rule as the cells. options.minActivity - a faction must have at least this many events in the year to be compared (so tiny groups don't clutter it up) */ function h2Data(network, { minActivity = 50 } = {}) { const meta = network.meta; const fac = new Map(network.factions.map((f) => [f.id, f])); const points = [], summary = []; for (const y of network.years) { const events = new Map(y.nodes.map((n) => [n.f, n.events])); const degree = new Map(); for (const n of y.nodes) { const f = fac.get(n.f); if (!f.generic && n.events >= minActivity) degree.set(n.f, 0); // compared factions start at 0 } for (const e of y.allied) { if (fac.get(e.a).generic || fac.get(e.b).generic) continue; if (!isAlliance(e, events, meta)) continue; if (degree.has(e.a)) degree.set(e.a, degree.get(e.a) + 1); // one more ally each if (degree.has(e.b)) degree.set(e.b, degree.get(e.b) + 1); } let isis = null; for (const [id, deg] of degree) { const f = fac.get(id); const isIsis = f.name === "Islamic State"; points.push({ year: y.year, id, label: f.label, bloc: f.bloc, degree: deg, isIsis, events: events.get(id) }); if (isIsis) isis = deg; } if (isis !== null) { const others = [...degree].filter(([id]) => fac.get(id).name !== "Islamic State").map(([, d]) => d); summary.push({ year: y.year, isisAllies: isis, compared: others.length, withMore: others.filter((d) => d > isis).length, // actors with MORE allies than ISIS withFewer: others.filter((d) => d < isis).length, // actors with FEWER allies than ISIS // H2 holds in a year if nobody has fewer allies than ISIS isisLowest: others.every((d) => d >= isis), }); } } return { points, summary, minActivity }; } 40:T703,/** H2 chart: every active faction's ally count per year, ISIS highlighted. */ function h2Chart(Plot, h2, { width = 900 } = {}) { // deterministic horizontal jitter so dots in one year column don't sit on top of each other const jitter = (id) => ((Math.sin(id * 12.9898) * 43758.5453) % 1) * 0.32; const others = h2.points.filter((d) => !d.isIsis); const isis = h2.points.filter((d) => d.isIsis); return Plot.plot({ width, height: 340, style: DARK.style, // dark background + light text x: { label: "Year", tickFormat: "d", domain: [2010.5, 2024.5] }, y: { label: "Number of allies", grid: true }, marks: [ Plot.ruleX([2016.5], { stroke: DARK.grid, strokeDasharray: "3 3" }), // source switch // every other faction: small grey dots Plot.dot(others, { x: (d) => d.year + jitter(d.id), y: "degree", r: 3, fill: DARK.dotOther, fillOpacity: 0.8, tip: true, title: (d) => `${d.label}, ${d.year}\n${d.degree} allies - ${d.events.toLocaleString()} events`, }), // ISIS: line + big magenta dots, labelled Plot.lineY(isis, { x: "year", y: "degree", stroke: "#d55181", strokeWidth: 2 }), Plot.dot(isis, { x: "year", y: "degree", r: 6, fill: "#d55181", stroke: "#1a1a19", tip: true, // ISIS magenta title: (d) => `Islamic State, ${d.year}\n${d.degree} allies - ${d.events.toLocaleString()} events`, }), Plot.text(isis, Plot.selectFirst({ x: "year", y: "degree", text: () => "Islamic State", dy: -12, fill: DARK.text })), ], caption: `Grey dots: every named faction with at least ${h2.minActivity} events that year. ` + `An ally = at least ${3} shared events and ≥ 1% of the smaller group's events (same rule as the cells).`, }); } 41:T6a6,/** * H3 metric: civilian deaths attributed to each bloc, per year. * 2011–2016: UCDP one-sided violence (intentional killing of civilians), * best estimate, credited to the perpetrator. * 2017–2024: ACLED reported fatalities in civilian-targeting events, * credited to the primary perpetrator (actor1). */ function h3Data(network) { const fac = new Map(network.factions.map((f) => [f.id, f])); const rows = []; for (const y of network.years) { const byBloc = new Map(BLOCS.map((b) => [b, 0])); for (const n of y.nodes) { const f = fac.get(n.f); // unidentified actors get their own group, whatever their nominal bloc const bloc = f.name.startsWith("Unidentified") ? "unidentified" : f.bloc; byBloc.set(bloc, byBloc.get(bloc) + n.civ_deaths); } // this year's total, so each bloc's bar can show its share of the year const yearTotal = [...byBloc.values()].reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0); for (const [bloc, deaths] of byBloc) { rows.push({ year: y.year, phase: phaseOf(y.year), bloc, deaths, share: yearTotal ? deaths / yearTotal : 0, measure: y.death_measure }); } } // phase totals and shares (the main ranking for H3) const totals = []; for (const [phase, rs] of d3group(rows, (d) => d.phase)) { const all = rs.reduce((s, r) => s + r.deaths, 0); for (const bloc of BLOCS) { const deaths = rs.filter((r) => r.bloc === bloc).reduce((s, r) => s + r.deaths, 0); totals.push({ phase, bloc: BLOC_NAMES[bloc], deaths, share: deaths / all }); } } totals.sort((a, b) => a.phase.localeCompare(b.phase) || b.deaths - a.deaths); return { rows, totals }; } 42:Tbd9,/** * H3 chart: share of civilian deaths by bloc, one small group of bars per year * Two panels side by side (one per source), because UCDP estimates and ACLED * reported fatalities must not share one axis as if they were the same measure. */ function h3Chart(Plot, h3, { width = 900 } = {}) { const panel = (phase, years, w) => Plot.plot({ width: w, height: 300, marginLeft: phase.includes("UCDP") ? 50 : 10, marginTop: 24, // facets reserve extra top space by default; trim it style: "background:transparent;color:#f0efec;--plot-background:#1a1a19", // the wrapper box is dark title: phase, // fx = the outer grouping: one slot per year, same width a stacked bar had fx: { label: null, tickFormat: "d", domain: years, padding: 0.15, axis: "bottom" }, // x = position inside a year's slot: one thin bar per bloc, in the legend's order x: { domain: BLOCS, axis: null, paddingInner: 0.1 }, // y: both panels share the same 0-100% scale so their axes read the same way y: { label: phase.includes("UCDP") ? "Share of that year's civilian deaths (%)" : null, percent: true, domain: [0, 100], axis: phase.includes("UCDP") ? "left" : null, grid: true }, color: { domain: BLOCS, range: BLOC_COLORS }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: DARK.grid }), // shared baseline under every bar Plot.barY(h3.rows.filter((r) => r.phase === phase), { fx: "year", x: "bloc", y: "share", fill: "bloc", tip: true, title: (d) => `${BLOC_NAMES[d.bloc]}, ${d.year}\n${Math.round(d.share * 100)}% of the year's civilian deaths` + `\n${Math.round(d.deaths).toLocaleString()} deaths (${d.measure})`, }), ], }); const wA = Math.round(width * 6 / 14), wB = width - wA; // panel width ~ number of years const legend = Plot.legend({ color: { domain: BLOCS.map((b) => BLOC_NAMES[b]), range: BLOC_COLORS }, swatchSize: 12, style: { background: "transparent", color: DARK.text }, }); const box = document.createElement("div"); box.style.cssText = DARK.style; // one dark box around legend + both panels const row = document.createElement("div"); row.style.display = "flex"; row.append(panel("2011–2016 (UCDP)", [2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016], wA), panel("2017–2024 (ACLED)", [2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024], wB)); const note = document.createElement("p"); note.style.cssText = `font-size:12px;color:${DARK.muted};margin:4px 0 0`; note.textContent = "2011–2016: UCDP one-sided violence, best estimate (deliberate killing of civilians only). " + "2017–2024: ACLED reported fatalities in events coded as targeting civilians, credited to the primary perpetrator. " + "Each bar is that bloc's share of the year's civilian deaths. " + "Different measures: compare shares within a panel, not death counts across panels."; box.append(legend, row, note); return box; } 43:[{"id":"4bb9a196aae007808a03b923dc40f2b05843d0bb87ee02a15cb01dde229c8bbca7ca4b5b024c015260aa561c7a6327a1a0466d7dce3eb7bb54428fae3fa0adf9","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/4bb9a196aae007808a03b923dc40f2b05843d0bb87ee02a15cb01dde229c8bbca7ca4b5b024c015260aa561c7a6327a1a0466d7dce3eb7bb54428fae3fa0adf9","name":"network.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1793647132564,"size":238416}] 38:{"id":"ca2cb35bfad0e720","slug":"tracking-alliances-and-opposition-during-the-syrian-civil-war","title":"Tracking Alliances and Opposition during the Syrian Civil War","thumbnail":"d369c518a1d83b49ae75221b5a2d9e04f244655a37e19eeb78b6c3dbae263099","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2026-11-02T19:46:49.162Z","update_time":"$D2026-11-04T05:57:28.698Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2026-11-04T05:29:15.328Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"5401807055ae8618","login":"benji823","name":"Benji","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/5116ea3621a099ca0069d79a87fa01f36ef9e7efd7e55dcba31fb687a18522e4","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":430,"publish_version":430,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"35d7c478ca12bd85","login":"benji823","name":"Benji","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/5116ea3621a099ca0069d79a87fa01f36ef9e7efd7e55dcba31fb687a18522e4","tier":null,"bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"5401807055ae8618","login":"benji823","name":"Benji","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/5116ea3621a099ca0069d79a87fa01f36ef9e7efd7e55dcba31fb687a18522e4","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Tracking Alliances and Opposition during the Syrian Civil War","cells":[{"id":1,"value":"# Tracking Alliances and Opposition during the Syrian Civil War","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2,"value":"*Author: Benjamin Barlog*","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"### Data Sources\n\n**ACLED**\nhttps://acleddata.com\n- provides detailed event-level conflict\ndata from 2017-2024\n- actors, adversaries, conflict type, etc.\n- used to build nodes and edges: \\\nnodes are actors, placed geographically by average event location \\\nedges are alliances and/or adversaries between actors\n- contains event level casualties\n- see the note on ACLED's data usage terms\n\n**UCDP**\nhttps://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/\n- provides coarser data back to the beginning of the war in 2011\n- used to supplement ACLED data and\nperform rough analysis on the beginning\nof the war when most fragmentation\noccurs\n- contains actor-level casualties\n\n**Natural Earth**\nhttps://www.naturalearthdata.com\n- used for geographical country boundaries","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":73,"value":"**Note regarding ACLED data** \\\nDue to ACLED's terms of use, the raw data for this project cannot be published with the notebook. It was precomputed using python to extract all of the metrics used in this notebook, packaged into network.json. As a result, no preliminary data exploration takes place within the notebook.\n\n---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"## Hypotheses\n\n1. Alliances involving smaller groups shifted much more often than alliances among strictly state-level actors throughout the war.\n2. From the beginning of the war in 2011 to the fall of the Assad regime in 2024, ISIS remained the \"enemy of everyone\". In other words, ISIS had the least number of allies in any given year.\n3. Syrian government aligned forces are responsible for a majority of civilian deaths, followed by ISIS and US-aligned forces, respectively.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":72,"value":"**Disclosure:** Alliances are not formal, as this was not contained in the ACLED dataset and is hard to measure objectively. \"Alliances\" within a given year refer to groups who fought alongside each other during at least 3 events, of which these 3 events must consist of more than 1% of the smaller faction's total events in that year.\n\n*Across the 959 yearly alliance pairs, 28 (3%) of these pairs fought against each other at least as often as they fought together, if not more. Both edges show up, alliance and opposition, which reflects the complex dynamics of the Syrian Civil War.*\n\n---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":71,"value":"### Alliances and opposition over the course of the war\nUse the sliders to edit the map\n\nGroups (bubbles) are calculated using the Louvain Algorithm which finds \"communities\" within network graphs.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":20,"value":"viewof showGeneric = Inputs.toggle({label: \"Show grouped & unidentified actors\", value: false})\n// toggle for grouped and unidentified actors","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"viewof minEdge = Inputs.range([1, 200], {step: 1, value: 10, label: \"Hide cell edges under (events)\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":18,"value":"viewof year = Inputs.range([2011, 2024], {step: 1, value: 2017, label: \"Year\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":22,"value":"chart = createChart(d3, topojson, network, world, {width})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"## How stable are alliances? (hypothesis 1)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"// where \"small group\" ends (in terms of events in a phase)\nviewof smallMax = Inputs.range([200, 5000], {step: 100, value: 1000, label: \"Small group = fewer than (events)\"})\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":50,"value":"h1Chart(Plot, h1, {width})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":51,"value":"Inputs.table(h1.overall, {format: {rate: (r) => `${Math.round(r * 100)}%`}})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":63,"value":"### Hypothesis 1 results\n\nIt looks like my hypothesis holds across a majority of years. Aside from 2019-2020, state-alliances hold up more than small-group-alliances. I also threw large non-state groups into the mix as state-only doesn't have many samples. We can see that large non-state groups also hold together better then small-group-alliances.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":66,"value":"## Does anyone team up with ISIS? (hypothesis 2)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":52,"value":"// minimum events in a year for a faction to be compared with ISIS\nviewof minActivity = Inputs.range([10, 500], {step: 10, value: 50, label: \"Compare factions with at least (events/year)\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":53,"value":"h2Chart(Plot, h2, {width})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"Inputs.table(h2.summary)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":64,"value":"### Hypothesis 2 results\n\nAcross all but 2 years (2013 & 2017), ISIS not only had the least number of allies, but 0 allies. So my hypothesis only holds across 9 of the 11 years where alliances were recognized.","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":68,"value":"## Who causes the most civilian deaths? (hypothesis 3)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":58,"value":"h3Chart(Plot, h3, {width})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":59,"value":"Inputs.table(h3.totals, {format: {share: (s) => `${Math.round(s * 100)}%`, deaths: (d) => Math.round(d).toLocaleString()}})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":70,"value":"### Hypothesis 3 results\n\nAcross the 3 groups I identified in my hypothesis, the ordering of civilian casualties caused by each group align with my hypothesis across each of the two datasets. There wasn't much I based my hypothesis on other than vibes, but it did turn out to be true.","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":17,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":8,"value":"### imports","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"d3 = import(\"https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/d3@7.9.0/+esm\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"topojson = import(\"https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/topojson-client@3.1.0/+esm\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"Plot = import(\"https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@observablehq/plot@0.6.16/+esm\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"### 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array","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":32,"value":"// dark theme\nDARK = ({\n style: \"background:#1a1a19;color:#f0efec;--plot-background:#1a1a19;border-radius:8px;padding:6px\",\n text: \"#f0efec\", // primary text\n muted: \"#c3c2b7\", // secondary text, notes\n grid: \"#8f8e86\", // rules and reference lines\n dotOther: \"#77766f\", // \"everyone else\" grey dots in H2\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":33,"value":"BLOC_NAMES = ({\n government: \"Syrian government & allies\",\n isis: \"Islamic State\",\n us_aligned: \"US-aligned (SDF, Coalition)\",\n turkey_aligned: \"Turkey-aligned (SNA)\",\n opposition: 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