2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"[DRAFT] COVID-19: Is Locking Down Worth It? | Blake Elias | Observable"}] 33:T52c,viewof params_2 = { // var r_0_title = 'Basic Reproductive Number: ()'; return inputsGroup( [ [ slider({'title': 'Hospital Capacity', name:'hospital_capacity', description:'How many infections in a given time step (5 days)
will cause hospitals to go over capacity?', min: 0, max: 10000, // params['num_population'] * 0.05, step: 1, //format: "0.0", value: 1000 // params['num_population'] * 0.005, }), slider({'title':'Initial Number Infected', name:'init_num_infected', description:'Number infected originally
.', min: 1, max: 10000, // params['num_population'] * 0.1, step: 0.01, value: 100 // params['num_population'] * 0.01, }), slider({'title':'Importation Rate', name:'imported_cases_per_day', description:'Daily new cases brought from other regions
.', min: 0, max: 100, // params['num_population'] * 0.001, step: 0.01, // params['num_population'] * 0.000001, //format: "0.0", value: 0, }), ] ], [ ['hospital_capacity', 'init_num_infected', 'imported_cases_per_day'] ] ); }34:T408,viewof actions_form = { //for (var t = 0; t < time_steps.length; ++t) { var elements = time_steps.map(x => slider( {'title':'', name:'', description:'', min: min_r, max: params['R_0'], step: 0.1, value: levels[x], // 1.0, orientation: 'vertical' } )); for (var i = 0; i < elements.length; ++i) { var elt = elements[i].querySelectorAll("input")[0]; elt.style.height = "100px"; } var new_test_array = [10, 9, 8]; for (var i = 0; i < test_array.length; ++i) { test_array[i] = new_test_array[i]; } // elements.map(elt => elt.style.height = "50px"); var actions = inputsGroup([ elements ], [ time_steps.map(x => "r_" + x) ], 56, 70); /*var new_results = iterate_actions(actions); for (var result_idx = 0; result_idx < new_results.length; ++result_idx) { results[result_idx] = new_results[result_idx]; }*/ //} return actions; }35:T9f5,chart_cost = { var plot_values = plot_cost_total; var height = 200; // var width = 400; var margin = ({top: 20, right: 30, bottom: 30, left: 95}); function x_line(d) { console.log("in x_line cost"); console.log(d); var diff = (d.date - results[0].date) / (24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) return x(diff); // x(d.date) } var line = d3.line() .defined(d => !isNaN(d.value)) .x(d => x(d.day)) .y(d => y(d.value)); /*var x = d3.scaleTime() .domain(d3.extent(dates)) .range([margin.left, width - margin.right])*/ var x = d3.scaleLinear() .domain(d3.extent(plot_values, d => d.day)) .range([margin.left, width - margin.right]); var y = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, max_cost_step]).nice() // .domain([0, d3.max(plot_values, d => d.value)]).nice() .range([height - margin.bottom, margin.top]); var xAxis = g => g .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - margin.bottom})`) .call(d3.axisBottom(x).ticks(width / 80).tickSizeOuter(0)); function formatTick(d) { const s = (d / 1e9).toFixed(0); return this.parentNode.nextSibling ? `\xa0${s}` : `$${s} billion`; }; /*var yAxis = g => g .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left},0)`) .call(d3.axisLeft(y) .tickFormat(d => nFormatter(d, 1))) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.select(".tick:last-of-type text").clone() .attr("x", 3) .attr("text-anchor", "start") .attr("font-weight", "bold") // .text(dollarFormat(plot_values.y)) );*/ var yAxis = svg => svg .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left - 50} ,0)`) // ${margin.left} .call(d3.axisRight(y) .tickSize(width - margin.left - margin.right) .tickFormat(formatTick)) .call(g => g.select(".domain") .remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick:not(:first-of-type) line") .attr("stroke-opacity", 0.5) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "2,2")) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text") .attr("x", -25) .attr("dy", -4)); // .tickFormat(dollarFormat); const svg = d3.create("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]); svg.append("g") .call(xAxis); svg.append("g") .call(yAxis); svg.append("path") .datum(plot_values) .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", "steelblue") .attr("stroke-width", 1.5) .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("stroke-linecap", "round") .attr("d", line); return svg.node(); }36:T851,chart_infected = { var plot_values = plot_num_infected; var height = 150; var margin = ({top: 20, right: 30, bottom: 30, left: 95}); function x_line(d) { console.log("in x_line infected"); console.log(d); return x(d.date); } var line = d3.line() .defined(d => !isNaN(d.value)) .x(d => x(d.day)) //.x(x_line) .y(d => y(d.value)); var x = d3.scaleLinear() .domain(d3.extent(plot_values, d => d.day)) .range([margin.left, width - margin.right]); var y = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, params["num_population"]]).nice() //.domain([0, d3.max(plot_values, d => d.value)]).nice() .range([height - margin.bottom, margin.top]); var xAxis = g => g .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - margin.bottom})`) .call(d3.axisBottom(x).ticks(width / 80).tickSizeOuter(0)); /*var yAxis = g => g .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left},0)`) .call(d3.axisLeft(y)) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.select(".tick:last-of-type text").clone() .attr("x", 3) .attr("text-anchor", "start") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .text(plot_values.y));*/ var yAxis = svg => svg .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left - 50} ,0)`) // ${margin.left} .call(d3.axisRight(y) .tickSize(width - margin.left - margin.right)) //.tickFormat(formatTick)) .call(g => g.select(".domain") .remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick:not(:first-of-type) line") .attr("stroke-opacity", 0.5) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "2,2")) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text") .attr("x", -25) .attr("dy", -4)); const svg = d3.create("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]); svg.append("g") .call(xAxis); svg.append("g") .call(yAxis); svg.append("path") .datum(plot_values) .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", "steelblue") .attr("stroke-width", 1.5) .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("stroke-linecap", "round") .attr("d", line); return svg.node(); }37:T5e8,md` Drag the blue sliders above to set the rate of lock-down / re-opening in your city. ### What do these numbers mean? As a policy maker, you have many choices before you: closing schools, restricting business, requiring masks, etc. In total, though, **the net effect of all these actions is to change ${tex`R`}**. So in the blue sliders above, we simply allow you to **set ${tex`R`} directly** -- abstracting away the exact policy choices required to achieve this. You're setting a policy that you predict will change human behavior, _such that ${tex`R`} takes on the desired value_. * ${tex`R = ${R_0}`}: full re-opening. * ${tex`R > 1`}: light restrictions. E.g. encouraged (but optional) mask-wearing & physical distancing. Daily new infections will continue growing -- though slower than under a full re-opening. * ${tex`R < 1`}: heavy restrictions. Required mask-wearing; business closures; school closure. Daily new infections will shrink. [Note: at the extremes, some choices of ${tex`R`} will be unrealistic to achieve, due to individuals' preferences. E.g. lowering ${tex`R`} to an extremely low value requires very strict lock-downs which are unlikely to achieve full compliance. Similarly, if daily infections are very high, people may choose not to go outside, and businesses may choose to stay closed, even if full-reopening was permitted -- making it difficult to get ${tex`R`} to return to its original value of ${tex`R_0 = ${R_0}`}, and hard to recover the resulting economic losses. ] `38:T1123,class PandemicEnv { constructor(num_population=1000, initial_num_infected=100, R_0=4.0, imported_cases_per_step=0.5, hospital_capacity=100, power=1, gdp_per_time_step=GDP_US / generation_times_per_year, // 100 * num_population / 1000, distr_family='nbinom', dynamics='SIS', time_lumping=false, init_transition_probs=false, ) { this.num_population = num_population; this.initial_num_infected = initial_num_infected; this.R_0 = R_0; this.R_min = min_r; this.imported_cases_per_step = imported_cases_per_step; this.power = power; this.scale_factor = gdp_per_time_step / (this.R_min ** (-this.power) - this.R_0 ** (-this.power)); this.distr_family = distr_family; this.dynamics = dynamics; this.time_lumping = time_lumping; this.hospital_capacity = hospital_capacity; this.state = initial_num_infected; this.done = false; this.reward = 0; // this.reset(); } reset() { this.state = this.initial_num_infected; return this.state; } step(action_r) { // var epsilon = 0.000001; console.log("entering step()"); // Execute one time step within the environment var prev_cases = this.state; console.log("prev cases: "); console.log(prev_cases); // var r = this.actions_r[action] var distr = this._new_state_distribution(prev_cases, action_r, this.imported_cases_per_step); var new_num_infected = distr.sample(); new_num_infected = Math.max(Math.floor(new_num_infected), 0); console.log("new_num_infected"); console.log(new_num_infected); new_num_infected = Math.min(new_num_infected, this.num_population); console.log("new_num_infected"); console.log(new_num_infected); var new_state = new_num_infected; console.log("new_state"); console.log(new_state); var result_obj = {} result_obj["num_infected"] = new_num_infected; result_obj["cost_total"] = this.cost(new_state, action_r); result_obj["cost_medical"] = this._cost_of_n(new_num_infected); result_obj["cost_lockdown"] = this._cost_of_r(action_r); // Add new observation to state array this.state = new_state; console.log("new_state"); console.log(new_state); var obs = new_state; var done = this.done; console.log("exiting step()"); // return [obs, reward, done, {}] return result_obj; } _reward(num_infected, r) { return -this._cost_of_n(num_infected) - this._cost_of_r(r) } cost(num_infected, r) { return -this._reward(num_infected, r); } _cost_of_r(r) { /*var baseline = 1/(this.R_0 ** this.power) var actual = 1/(r ** this.power) // cost_to_keep_half_home / (1/((num_population/4)**power) - 1/(R_0 ** power)) if (r >= this.R_0) { return 0; } else { return (actual - baseline) * this.scale_factor // (actual - baseline); }*/ if (r >= this.R_0) { return 0; } else { return this.scale_factor * (this.R_0 - r) / this.R_0; } } _cost_of_n(n, death_rate_within=0.01, death_rate_above=0.1) { var cost_per_death = 1e7; // https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843: value of a statistical life var cost_within = death_rate_within * cost_per_death; var cost_above = death_rate_above * cost_per_death; if (n <= 0) { return 0; } else { if (n < this.hospital_capacity) { return n * cost_within; } else { return this.hospital_capacity * cost_within + (n - this.hospital_capacity) * cost_above; } } } _expected_new_state(num_infected, r) { var fraction_susceptible = 1; var expected_new_cases = (num_infected * r) * fraction_susceptible + this.imported_cases_per_step return expected_new_cases; } _new_state_distribution(num_infected, action_r) { console.log("entering _new_state_distribution"); var NegativeBinomial = stdlib.base.dists.negativeBinomial.NegativeBinomial; var lam = this._expected_new_state(num_infected, action_r); //var r = 100000000000000.0; //var p = lam / (r + lam); // var dist = new NegativeBinomial(r, 1-p); // var dist = new Poisson(lam); var dist = new Uniform(lam, lam); return dist; } }39:T406,nFormatter = { function nFormatter(num, digits) { var si = [ { value: 1, symbol: "" }, { value: 1E3, symbol: "K" }, { value: 1E6, symbol: "M" }, { value: 1E9, symbol: "B" }, { value: 1E12, symbol: "T" }, { value: 1E15, symbol: "Qua" }, { value: 1E18, symbol: "Qui" } ]; var rx = /\.0+$|(\.[0-9]*[1-9])0+$/; var i; for (i = si.length - 1; i > 0; i--) { if (num >= si[i].value) { break; } } return (num / si[i].value).toFixed(digits).replace(rx, "$1") + " " + si[i].symbol; } /* * Tests */ var tests = [ { num: 1234, digits: 1 }, { num: 100000000, digits: 1 }, { num: 299792458, digits: 1 }, { num: 759878, digits: 1 }, { num: 759878, digits: 0 }, { num: 123, digits: 1 }, { num: 123.456, digits: 1 }, { num: 123.456, digits: 2 }, { num: 123.456, digits: 4 } ]; var i; for (i = 0; i < tests.length; i++) { console.log("nFormatter(" + tests[i].num + ", " + tests[i].digits + ") = " + nFormatter(tests[i].num, tests[i].digits)); } return nFormatter; }3a:[{"id":"28622cb300cfffa2f90e4baaf72e5f6aceef853b2b2a43753568d1117bea695ece7123d8ed130b7364c2f6bcd1815c250a0cabe56eecbadcc90c07182e4d25f6","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/28622cb300cfffa2f90e4baaf72e5f6aceef853b2b2a43753568d1117bea695ece7123d8ed130b7364c2f6bcd1815c250a0cabe56eecbadcc90c07182e4d25f6","name":"image.png","type":"image/png","lastModified":1602857278905.361,"size":47966},{"id":"e9869d483d6eacb7483a181a4217a7a843b073c0e7089d6c94e2f8aa44eb2e73df9853306c67b96897272287193dc3c4df19368b372e820661f129eb72383598","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/e9869d483d6eacb7483a181a4217a7a843b073c0e7089d6c94e2f8aa44eb2e73df9853306c67b96897272287193dc3c4df19368b372e820661f129eb72383598","name":"r-1-delay-slow.gif","type":"image/gif","lastModified":1602863028542.084,"size":1937883},{"id":"ce13c0479c4005e78e21e5bf6254bf5bab8d2f4f85e2c1a036c17a2d1d062d253a44fa12b407c3f36a870355f5e87f68932e79219716d6633ce092345474022f","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/ce13c0479c4005e78e21e5bf6254bf5bab8d2f4f85e2c1a036c17a2d1d062d253a44fa12b407c3f36a870355f5e87f68932e79219716d6633ce092345474022f","name":"early-lock-down-short.gif","type":"image/gif","lastModified":1602862987338.155,"size":222282}] 31:{"id":"387fd3cd033ad73c","slug":"draft-covid-19-is-locking-down-worth-it","title":"[DRAFT] COVID-19: Is Locking Down Worth It?","thumbnail":"35930b0658496de62c0d98156ac42d7fc05fd1c2c6c8bccebdcbc552d02defa1","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-10-16T14:07:58.905Z","update_time":"$D2020-11-04T16:08:30.844Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-10-16T14:21:39.752Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":{"id":"85b936a5b67f6ecd","slug":"covid-19-policy-making","title":"COVID-19: Is Locking Down Worth It?","owner":{"id":"614157e65006a2d4","login":"blakeelias","name":"Blake Elias"}},"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"614157e65006a2d4","login":"blakeelias","name":"Blake Elias","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/bcb2d8974dfe29de8246d628c79d40f80dd37cb59dc6d869a9030f5158e1b5ca","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1453,"publish_version":1453,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"01ac8a6a43bd3e70","login":"blakeelias","name":"Blake Elias","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/bcb2d8974dfe29de8246d628c79d40f80dd37cb59dc6d869a9030f5158e1b5ca","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"01ac8a6a43bd3e70","login":"blakeelias","name":"Blake Elias","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/bcb2d8974dfe29de8246d628c79d40f80dd37cb59dc6d869a9030f5158e1b5ca","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"[DRAFT] COVID-19: Is Locking Down Worth It?","cells":[{"id":1017,"value":"md`\n# [DRAFT] COVID-19: Is Locking Down Worth It?\n\n _Blake Elias, Alex Siegenfeld, Yaneer Bar-Yam_\n\n\n\nA key factor in pandemic response is the trade-off between economics and human health. Should we lock down first, to eliminate the disease, so we can fully re-open later? Should we let the disease run rampant, because the cost of stopping it is too great? Something in between?\n\nBelow is an interactive model to help address these questions. Try controling a city's re-opening policy, and watch the effects on both the economy and human health.\n\n\n-----\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1264,"value":"md`\n\n\n# Things to Try`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1281,"value":"md`\n\n### Is elimination worth it?\nLock down, then re-open.\nStricter lock-downs look more expensive -- until you reach elimination...\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1298,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"early-lock-down-short.gif\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1275,"value":"md`### Is R = 1 sustainable? \n\n(i.e., keeping cases \"under control\", though not eliminating?)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1269,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"r-1-delay-slow.gif\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1095,"value":"md`# Model Assumptions\n\nFirst, let's establish some basic facts about our virtual city. `","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":151,"value":"viewof params_1 = {\n // var r_0_title = 'Basic Reproductive Number: ()';\n \n \n return inputsGroup(\n \n[\n [\n slider({'title':'Population Size',\n name:'num_population',\n description:'Number of people in your city.
.',\n min: 1000, \n max: 100000, \n step: 100,\n value: 10000\n }),\n \n slider({'title': r_0_title,\n name:'R_0',\n description:'One infected person will infect this many more people
by default (i.e. under \"normal\" behavior, with no interventions).',\n min: 0, \n max: 5, \n step: 0.1, \n //format: \"0.0\",\n value: 3,\n }),\n ]\n],\n \n[\n ['num_population','R_0'],\n]\n \n)\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1380,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1202,"value":"md`Take note of that last parameter: ${tex`R_0`}: the number of people to whom an infected person will pass the disease, during the time they are infectious. We can lower this number via policy interventions and behavior change --- physical distancing, business shut-downs, etc. Of course, such interventions come at a cost.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1170,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"image.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1175,"value":"html`

Reproductive number, ${tex`R`}: how many people does a single person infect?

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1155,"value":"md`\n# Simulation\n\nNow, let's watch how the pandemic unfolds, both in terms of human health, and economic cost.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":251,"value":"md`## Set Your Policy (R: strength of lock-down)\narrow on left, arrow down\ndistinguish \"1\" somehow - background image\n\nput time axis underneath, \"R\" axis vertical\n\ntime horizon: 9 months\n\nupper bound, R = 1 when hospital capacity exceeded\n\n[x] linear cost model\n\nhorizontal bars for sliders instead of points\n\nremove space before 0\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":355,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1432,"value":"test_array = [1, 2, 3]","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1436,"value":"test_array","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1430,"value":"actions_form","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":993,"value":"md`## Daily Economic Cost`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":324,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":644,"value":"{\n var fraction = Math.min(accrued_cost / max_total_cost, 1);\n var percent = fraction * 100;\n var px = percent * 700;\n return html`\n Total Cost: \n ${\"$\" + nFormatter(accrued_cost, 1)}\n `\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":990,"value":"md`## Daily Infection`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":276,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1332,"value":"{\n var fraction = Math.min(accrued_cases / params['num_population'], 1);\n var percent = fraction * 100;\n return html`\n Total Cases: \n ${accrued_cases}\n `\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1029,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1020,"value":"md`\n------\n\n------\n\n# Acknowledgments\n\nWe thank Olha Buchel for many helpful conversations.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1047,"value":"md`\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n-------\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"md`# Technical Details...`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1070,"value":"md`## Interventions`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1007,"value":"level = 3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1424,"value":"levels = time_steps.map(x => level); // results[x]['num_infected'] > params['hospital_capacity'] ? 1.0 : level","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":553,"value":"actions = actions_form[0]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1055,"value":"md`## Parameters`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":169,"value":"params = Object.assign({}, params_1, params_2);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1102,"value":"imported_cases_per_step = params['imported_cases_per_day'] * days_per_generation","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1040,"value":"R_0 = params['R_0']","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"$38","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":595,"value":"dummy_env = new PandemicEnv(\n params['num_population'],\n params['init_num_infected'],\n params['R_0'],\n params['imported_cases_per_step'],\n params['hospital_capacity']\n);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1403,"value":"num_population = params['num_population']","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":727,"value":"shutdown_costs = {\n var shutdown_costs = [];\n for (var r = min_r; r <= params['R_0']; r += 0.1) {\n var obj = {'r': r, 'cost': nFormatter(dummy_env.cost(0, r), 1)};\n shutdown_costs.push(obj);\n }\n var r = params['R_0'];\n var obj = {'r': r, 'cost': dummy_env.cost(0, r)};\n shutdown_costs.push(obj);\n \n return shutdown_costs;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":711,"value":"days_per_generation = 5","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":843,"value":"generations_per_intervention_step = 3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":714,"value":"generation_times_per_year = 365 / days_per_generation","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":289,"value":"days_per_intervention_step = days_per_generation * generations_per_intervention_step;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":392,"value":"num_intervention_steps = 16; // Math.ceil(generation_times_per_year / generations_per_time_step);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1220,"value":"num_generation_steps = num_intervention_steps * generations_per_intervention_step","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":717,"value":"GDP_US = 2e13 // 20 trillion dollars","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":721,"value":"\"US GDP: \" + nFormatter(GDP_US)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":607,"value":"min_r = 0.3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":658,"value":"cost_step_all_infected = dummy_env.cost(params['num_population'], params['R_0'])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":664,"value":"cost_step_locked_down = dummy_env.cost(0, min_r)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":603,"value":"max_cost_step = Math.max(\n cost_step_all_infected,\n cost_step_locked_down,\n);\n\n// min_r // params['R_0']","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":629,"value":"max_total_cost = max_cost_step * num_generation_steps * 0.25 // cost_step_all_infected * num_time_steps","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1105,"value":"md`## Results`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":348,"value":"accrued_cost = {\n var total_cost = 0;\n for (var i = 0; i < results.length; ++i) {\n var new_cost = results[i]['cost_total'];\n if (new_cost) { // HACK: fix\n total_cost += new_cost;\n }\n }\n return total_cost;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1360,"value":"accrued_cases = {\n var total_cost = 0;\n for (var i = 0; i < results.length; ++i) {\n var new_cost = results[i]['num_infected'];\n if (new_cost) { // HACK: fix\n total_cost += new_cost;\n }\n }\n return total_cost;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"function iterate_actions(actions_r) {\n var env = new PandemicEnv(\n params['num_population'],\n params['init_num_infected'],\n params['R_0'],\n params['imported_cases_per_step'],\n params['hospital_capacity']\n );\n \n var initial_state = {\n 'date': dates[0],\n 'num_infected': params['init_num_infected'],\n 'cost_total': 0,\n 'cost_medical': 0,\n 'cost_lockdown': 0,\n };\n var results = [initial_state];\n \n for (var i = 0; i < num_intervention_steps /* actions_r.length*/ ; ++i) {\n for (var j = 0; j < generations_per_intervention_step; ++j) {\n var t_next = i * generations_per_intervention_step + j + 1;\n var t_prev = i * generations_per_intervention_step + j;\n var next_action_r = (results[t_prev]['num_infections'] >= params['hospital_capacity']) ? 1.0 : actions_r[i];\n \n var result_obj = env.step(next_action_r);\n result_obj['date'] = dates[t_next];\n results = results.concat(result_obj);\n }\n }\n \n return results;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":282,"value":"results = time_steps.map(x => 0); // iterate_actions(actions);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":286,"value":"plot_num_infected = {\n var plot_values = [];\n for (var i = 0; i < results.length; ++i) {\n var obj = {'day': i * days_per_generation, 'value': results[i]['num_infected']};\n plot_values = plot_values.concat(obj);\n }\n \n return plot_values;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":333,"value":"plot_cost_total = {\n var plot_values = [];\n for (var i = 0; i < results.length; ++i) {\n var obj = {'day': i * days_per_generation, 'value': results[i]['cost_total']};\n plot_values = plot_values.concat(obj);\n }\n \n return plot_values;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":398,"value":"time_steps = {\n var steps = [];\n for (var i = 0; i < num_intervention_steps - 1; ++i) { // was: i < num_generation_steps\n steps = steps.concat(i);\n }\n return steps;\n};","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1371,"value":"results","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":796,"value":"dates = {\n var dates = [];\n var start = moment(\"2020-10-01\");\n var current = start;\n dates.push(start._d);\n for (var i = 0; i < time_steps.length; ++i) {\n var next = moment(current).add(days_per_generation, \"days\");\n console.log(next._d);\n dates.push(next._d);\n current = next;\n }\n return dates;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"class Uniform {\n constructor(a, b) {\n this.a = a;\n this.b = b;\n }\n \n sample() {\n return jStat.uniform.sample(this.a, this.b);\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":65,"value":"class Poisson {\n constructor(lam) {\n this.lam = lam\n }\n \n sample() {\n return jStat.poisson.sample(this.lam);\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":55,"value":"jStat = require(\"//cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/jstat@latest/dist/jstat.min.js\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":52,"value":"stdlib = require( \"https://unpkg.com/@stdlib/stdlib@0.0.32/dist/stdlib-flat.min.js\" )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":688,"value":"md`### Formatting`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":691,"value":"$39","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":750,"value":"dollarFormat = function(d) { return '$' + d3.format(',f')(d) };","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":147,"value":"import {inputsGroup} from \"@blakeelias/inputs-in-grid\" // \"@bumbeishvili/input-groups\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":153,"value":"import {slider,select} from \"@blakeelias/inputs\" // \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":202,"value":"import {selectFlat} from \"@fil/selectflat\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":273,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":801,"value":"moment = require(\"https://momentjs.com/downloads/moment.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1115,"value":"r_0_title = html`

Basic Reproductive Number (${tex`R_0`})`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W3a","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"