2e:null 2f:["$","title",null,{"children":"Élection présidentielle française 2027 (Sondages, 1er tour) | Christophe Yamahata | Observable"}] 34:T78d,viewof dataSource = { const select = Inputs.select( new Map([ ["Données Wikipédia (Live)", "live"], ["Données archivées (14/09/2026)", "archive_2026-09-14"], ["Données archivées (06/09/2026)", "archive_2026-09-06"], ["Données archivées (05/09/2026)", "archive_2026-09-05"], ["Données archivées (03/09/2026)", "archive_2026-09-03"], ["Données archivées (02/09/2026)", "archive_2026-09-02"], ["Données archivées (30/08/2026)", "archive_2026-08-30"], ["Données archivées (29/08/2026)", "archive_2026-08-29"] ]), { label: html`Source`, value: "archive_2026-09-14" } ); const container = html`

⚠️

Attention : Par défaut, les données affichées proviennent d'une archive capturée depuis Wikipédia. En effet, en raison des modifications fréquentes de la page source, des erreurs de formatage peuvent altérer le graphique.
Vous pouvez basculer sur la Source Wikipédia pour consulter les données les plus récentes, tout en gardant cette limitation à l'esprit.

${select}

`; container.value = select.value; select.addEventListener("input", () => { container.value = select.value; container.dispatchEvent(new Event("input")); }); return container; }35:T3597,Presidentielle_FR_2027_1er_tour = Plot.plot({ title: selectedInstitute === "Tous" ? "Intentions de vote (ordonnées selon le dernier sondage)" : `Sondages : ${selectedInstitute}`, width, height, marginTop, marginBottom, marginLeft, marginRight, grid: false, style: ` [aria-label="title"] { font-size: 20px !important; font-weight: bold; fill: #111827; } `, color: { legend: true, domain: sortedCandidates }, x: { label: null, domain: xDomain }, y: { label: null, domain: yDomain }, marks: [ ...(bgUrl ? [ () => svg` ` ] : []), Plot.gridX({ ticks: xDomain.filter((_, i, arr) => { const step = Math.ceil(arr.length / 10); return i % step === 0 || i === arr.length - 1; }), strokeOpacity: 0.15 }), Plot.gridY({ ticks: d3.range(yDomain[0], yDomain[yDomain.length - 1] + 2.5, 2.5), strokeOpacity: 0.15, strokeDasharray: "2,2" }), Plot.axisX({ fontSize: 14, tickRotate: -45, label: null, ticks: xDomain.filter((_, i, arr) => { const step = Math.ceil(arr.length / 10); return i % step === 0 || i === arr.length - 1; }) }), Plot.text([null], { frameAnchor: "top-left", dx: marginLeft - 80, dy: -58, textAnchor: "start", text: () => "↑", fontSize: 38, fontWeight: "bold", fill: "#111827" }), Plot.text([null], { frameAnchor: "top-left", dx: marginLeft - 60, dy: -55, textAnchor: "start", text: () => "% d'intentions\n de vote", fontSize: 15, fill: "#111827" }), Plot.axisY({ label: null, fontSize: 16, tickFormat: d => `${d}% `, ticks: d3.range(yDomain[0], yDomain[yDomain.length - 1] + 5, 5) }), Plot.line(linesData, { x: "rawDate", y: "score", stroke: "candidate", z: "candidate", strokeWidth: 3, render: (index, scales, values, dimensions, context, next) => { const g = next(index, scales, values, dimensions, context); g.style.filter = "drop-shadow(0px 3px 9px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4))"; return g; } }), Plot.dot(linesData, { x: "rawDate", y: "score", fill: "candidate", z: "candidate", r: 5, title: d => `${d.candidate} : ${d.score}% (${d.institute} - ${d.rawDate})` }), // solid bubbles (no photo) Plot.dot(bubblesText, { x: "x", y: "y", r, fill: "candidate", stroke: "candidate", strokeWidth: 3, dx: shift_dx, title: bubbleTitle, sort: { channel: "y" } }), Plot.dot(bubblesPhoto, { x: "x", y: "y", r, fill: "none", stroke: "candidate", strokeWidth: 3, dx: shift_dx, title: bubbleTitle, sort: { channel: "y" } }), Plot.image(bubblesPhoto, { x: "x", y: "y", src: d => photoByCandidate[d.candidate], r: r - 3, preserveAspectRatio: "xMidYMid slice", dx: shift_dx, title: bubbleTitle, sort: { channel: "y" } }), Plot.text(bubblesPhoto, { x: "x", y: "y", text: d => { const candName = typeof d === "string" ? d : d.candidate; const latest = latestByCandidate.get(candName); return latest ? latest.candidate : ""; }, fontSize: r * 0.42, fontWeight: "500", fill: "#111827", textAnchor: "start", lineAnchor: "bottom", dx: shift_dx + r + 15, dy: -11, sort: { channel: "y" } }), Plot.text(bubblesPhoto, { x: "x", y: "y", text: d => { const candName = typeof d === "string" ? d : d.candidate; const latest = latestByCandidate.get(candName); if (!latest) return ""; const s = latest.score; return Number.isInteger(s) ? `${s}%` : `${s.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}%`; }, fontSize: r * 0.65, fontWeight: "bold", fill: "candidate", textAnchor: "start", lineAnchor: "top", dx: shift_dx + r + 15, dy: -3, sort: { channel: "y" } }), Plot.text(bubblesText, { x: "x", y: "y", text: d => abbreviate(d.candidate), fontSize: r * 0.7, fontWeight: "bold", fill: "white", textAnchor: "middle", lineAnchor: "middle", dx: shift_dx, title: bubbleTitle, sort: { channel: "y" } }), Plot.text(bubblesText, { x: "x", y: "y", text: d => { const latest = latestByCandidate.get(d.candidate); if (!latest) return ""; const s = latest.score; return Number.isInteger(s) ? `${s}%` : `${s.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}%`; }, fontSize: r * 0.55, fontWeight: "bold", fill: "candidate", textAnchor: "start", lineAnchor: "middle", dx: shift_dx + r + 15, sort: { channel: "y" } }), // Connecting lines custom mark (index, scales) => { const allBubbles = [...bubblesText, ...bubblesPhoto]; const { x, y } = scales; const lines = allBubbles.map(d => { const latest = latestByCandidate.get(d.candidate); const startScore = latest ? latest.score : d.y; const xStart = x(d.x); const yStart = y(startScore); const xEnd = x(d.x) + shift_dx - r; const yEnd = y(d.y); const xCorner = xEnd - 15; const yCorner = yEnd; const gapStart = 6; const gapEnd = 3; const dxAngle = xCorner - xStart; const dyAngle = yCorner - yStart; const angleDist = Math.hypot(dxAngle, dyAngle); const x1 = angleDist > 0 ? xStart + (dxAngle / angleDist) * gapStart : xStart; const y1 = angleDist > 0 ? yStart + (dyAngle / angleDist) * gapStart : yStart; const x2 = xEnd - gapEnd; const y2 = yEnd; const pathData = `M ${x1} ${y1} L ${xCorner} ${yCorner} L ${x2} ${y2}`; return ``; }); const g = document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); g.innerHTML = lines.join(""); return g; }, // Poll detail bubble custom mark (index, scales) => { if (typeof pollDetails === "undefined" || !pollDetails || typeof linesData === "undefined" || linesData.length === 0) { return document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); } const list = Array.isArray(pollDetails) ? pollDetails : [pollDetails]; const validPolls = list.filter(p => p && (p.detail || p.detaile) && (p.detail || p.detaile).trim().length > 0); if (validPolls.length === 0) return document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); const targetPoll = validPolls[validPolls.length - 1]; const targetRawDate = (targetPoll.rawDate || "").replace(/–/g, "-").trim(); let latestDataDate = ""; if (typeof xDomain !== "undefined" && xDomain.length > 0) { latestDataDate = String(xDomain[xDomain.length - 1]).replace(/–/g, "-").trim(); } else { const allDates = Array.from(new Set(linesData.map(d => String(d.rawDate || "").replace(/–/g, "-").trim()))); latestDataDate = allDates[allDates.length - 1] || ""; } if (!targetRawDate || targetRawDate !== latestDataDate) { return document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); } const checkbox = document.getElementById("toggle-poll-details"); const isChecked = checkbox ? checkbox.checked : true; if (!isChecked) return document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); const textContent = (targetPoll.detail || targetPoll.detaile).trim(); const instituteStr = (targetPoll.institute || "DERNIER SONDAGE").toUpperCase(); const { x, y } = scales; let xPos = x ? x(targetPoll.rawDate) : undefined; if (xPos === undefined && x) { xPos = x(xDomain[xDomain.length - 1]); } if (xPos === undefined) return document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); const words = textContent.split(" "); let currentLine = ""; const displayLines = []; words.forEach(word => { if ((currentLine + " " + word).trim().length > 60) { displayLines.push(currentLine.trim()); currentLine = word; } else { currentLine += " " + word; } }); if (currentLine) displayLines.push(currentLine.trim()); const boxWidth = 380; const lineSpacing = 15; const headerSpace = 24; const paddingBottom = 10; const boxHeight = headerSpace + (displayLines.length * lineSpacing) + paddingBottom; const borderRadius = 6; const pointerSize = 5; const boxX = Math.min(Math.max(marginLeft, xPos - boxWidth + 25), width - marginRight - boxWidth); const yMaxPos = y ? (y.domain ? y(y.domain()[1]) : (typeof yDomain !== "undefined" ? y(yDomain[yDomain.length - 1]) : marginTop + 20)) : marginTop + 20; const boxY = Math.max(marginTop - boxHeight - 6, yMaxPos - boxHeight - 10); const pointerX = Math.max(boxX + 12, Math.min(xPos, boxX + boxWidth - 12)); const pointerY = boxY + boxHeight + pointerSize; const g = document.createElementNS("http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "g"); g.setAttribute("class", "poll-detail-bubble"); g.style.pointerEvents = "none"; g.innerHTML = ` ${instituteStr} • ${targetPoll.rawDate} ${displayLines.map((line, i) => ` ${line} `).join("")} `; return g; } ] });36:T506,viewof bgChoice = { const styles = html``; const input = Inputs.select( new Map([ ["Sans arrière-plan", null], ["Drapeau français 🇫🇷", "france"], ["Paris (Tour Eiffel)", "paris"], ["Palais de l'Élysée", "elysee"], ["Illustration I (Gemini AI)", "Gemini_AI_image_I"], ["Illustration II (Gemini AI)", "Gemini_AI_image_II"], ["Illustration III 🥖 (Gemini AI)", "Gemini_AI_image_III"], ["Illustration IV (Gemini AI)", "Gemini_AI_image_IV"], ["Illustration V 🐓 (Grok AI)", "Grok_AI_image_V"], ["Illustration VI ⚱️ (Grok AI)", "Grok_AI_image_VI"], ["Braquage du Louvre 🐱‍👤 (Grok AI)", "Grok_AI_image_VII"], ["Pop art 👊 (Grok AI)", "Grok_AI_image_VIII"] ]), { value: "Grok_AI_image_VI", label: "Arrière-plan" } ); const container = html`

${styles}${input}

`; return Object.defineProperty(container, "value", { get: () => input.value, set: (v) => { input.value = v; container.dispatchEvent(new Event("input", { bubbles: true })); } }); }37:T76e,{ const button = DOM.download( async () => { const copy = Presidentielle_FR_2027_1er_tour.cloneNode(true); // Supprimer le titre copy.querySelector("h2")?.remove(); // Supprimer la légende copy.querySelector("div[class*='swatches']")?.remove(); // Nettoyage des classes copy.removeAttribute("class"); copy.querySelectorAll("[class]").forEach(el => { el.removeAttribute("class"); }); const svg = copy.querySelector("svg"); // Convertir les images externes en data:image/...;base64,... const images = [...svg.querySelectorAll("image")]; for (const image of images) { const url = image.getAttribute("href"); if (!url || !url.startsWith("http")) continue; const response = await fetch(url); const blob = await response.blob(); const dataUrl = await new Promise((resolve, reject) => { const reader = new FileReader(); reader.onload = () => resolve(reader.result); reader.onerror = reject; reader.readAsDataURL(blob); }); image.setAttribute("href", dataUrl); image.removeAttribute("xlink:href"); } return serialize(svg); }, "Presidentielle_FR_2027_1er_tour", "Enregistrer (SVG)" ); const container = html`

`; // Zone de largeur fixe : le texte de droite ne bouge pas const buttonZone = html`

`; buttonZone.append(button); container.append( buttonZone, html` Export en 2 étapes :
1. Intégration des images dans le SVG
2. Téléchargement du fichier SVG ` ); return container; }38:T12eb,{ const button = DOM.download( async () => { const copy = Presidentielle_FR_2027_1er_tour.cloneNode(true); // Supprimer le titre copy.querySelector("h2")?.remove(); // Supprimer la légende copy.querySelector("div[class*='swatches']")?.remove(); // Nettoyage des classes copy.removeAttribute("class"); copy.querySelectorAll("[class]").forEach(el => { el.removeAttribute("class"); }); // Récupérer le SVG const svg = copy.querySelector("svg"); // -------------------------------------------------- // Intégrer les images externes dans le SVG // -------------------------------------------------- const images = [...svg.querySelectorAll("image")]; for (const image of images) { const imageUrl = image.getAttribute("href"); if (!imageUrl || !imageUrl.startsWith("http")) continue; const response = await fetch(imageUrl); const blob = await response.blob(); const dataUrl = await new Promise((resolve, reject) => { const reader = new FileReader(); reader.onload = () => resolve(reader.result); reader.onerror = reject; reader.readAsDataURL(blob); }); image.setAttribute("href", dataUrl); image.removeAttribute("xlink:href"); } // -------------------------------------------------- // Dimensions logiques du graphique // -------------------------------------------------- const width = svg.viewBox.baseVal.width || parseFloat(svg.getAttribute("width")); const height = svg.viewBox.baseVal.height || parseFloat(svg.getAttribute("height")); // -------------------------------------------------- // Résolution 2× // -------------------------------------------------- const scale = 2; // -------------------------------------------------- // Transformer le SVG en image // -------------------------------------------------- const svgBlob = new Blob( [serialize(svg)], { type: "image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8" } ); const svgUrl = URL.createObjectURL(svgBlob); try { const img = new Image(); await new Promise((resolve, reject) => { img.onload = resolve; img.onerror = reject; img.src = svgUrl; }); // -------------------------------------------------- // Canvas 2× // -------------------------------------------------- const canvas = document.createElement("canvas"); canvas.width = width * scale; canvas.height = height * scale; const context = canvas.getContext("2d"); // -------------------------------------------------- // Fond blanc // -------------------------------------------------- context.fillStyle = "white"; context.fillRect( 0, 0, canvas.width, canvas.height ); // -------------------------------------------------- // Conserver la taille logique du graphique // tout en exportant en 2× // -------------------------------------------------- context.scale(scale, scale); context.drawImage( img, 0, 0, width, height ); // -------------------------------------------------- // Retourner le PNG // -------------------------------------------------- return await new Promise((resolve, reject) => { canvas.toBlob( blob => { if (blob) { resolve(blob); } else { reject( new Error("Impossible de créer le PNG.") ); } }, "image/png" ); }); } finally { URL.revokeObjectURL(svgUrl); } }, "Presidentielle_FR_2027_1er_tour", "Enregistrer (PNG)" ); // -------------------------------------------------- // Interface du bouton // -------------------------------------------------- const container = html`

`; // Zone de largeur fixe const buttonZone = html`

`; buttonZone.append(button); container.append( buttonZone, html` Export en 2 étapes :
1. Intégration des images dans le graphique
2. Téléchargement du PNG en résolution 2× ` ); return container; }39:T578,dessin_de_presse = { const container = html`

L'illusion des sondages en un dessin de Chappatte • Souvenir de la campagne présidentielle d'Édouard Balladur face à Jacques Chirac en 1995. [Source : Patrick Chappatte]
👆🏻 Cliquer pour redimensionner l'illustration

`; const div = container.querySelector("div"); container.onclick = () => { div.style.width = div.style.width === "500px" ? "900px" : "500px"; }; return container; }3a:T48c,viewof display_inspect = { const el = htl.html`

Variables & Fonctions

⇣ Cochez pour inspecter le script du notebook

`; const checkbox = el.querySelector("input"); const spacer = el.querySelector("div"); function update() { const show = checkbox.checked; document.querySelectorAll(".observablehq--inspect").forEach(node => { if (el.contains(node)) return; node.style.display = show ? "" : "none"; }); spacer.style.height = show ? "0" : "20vh"; } checkbox.addEventListener("change", update); // Keep watching the DOM for new inspectors const observer = new MutationObserver(update); observer.observe(document.body, { childList: true, subtree: true }); // Initial state update(); // Clean up when the cell is re-run invalidation.then(() => observer.disconnect()); return el; }3b:Tf50,fetchWikipediaPolls = { const pageTitle = "Opinion_polling_for_the_" + Year + "_French_presidential_election"; const url = `https://en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?action=parse&page=${pageTitle}&prop=text&format=json&origin=*`; const translateMonths = (dateStr) => { if (!dateStr) return ""; return dateStr .replace(/\bJan\b/g, "Janv.") .replace(/\bFeb\b/g, "Févr.") .replace(/\bMar\b/g, "Mars") .replace(/\bApr\b/g, "Avr.") .replace(/\bMay\b/g, "Mai") .replace(/\bJun\b/g, "Juin") .replace(/\bJul\b/g, "Juill.") .replace(/\bAug\b/g, "Août") .replace(/\bSep\b/g, "Sept.") .replace(/\bOct\b/g, "Oct.") .replace(/\bNov\b/g, "Nov.") .replace(/\bDec\b/g, "Déc."); }; try { const res = await fetch(url); const json = await res.json(); if (!json.parse) return []; const html = json.parse.text["*"]; const parser = new DOMParser(); const doc = parser.parseFromString(html, "text/html"); const tables = Array.from(doc.querySelectorAll("table.wikitable")); const targetTable = tables.find(t => t.querySelectorAll("tr").length > 3); if (!targetTable) return []; const headerRows = Array.from(targetTable.querySelectorAll("tr")); let candidateColumns = []; let instituteColIndex = 0; let dateColIndex = 1; for (const r of headerRows) { const cells = Array.from(r.querySelectorAll("th, td")); if (cells.length > 5) { cells.forEach((cell, idx) => { const clone = cell.cloneNode(true); clone.querySelectorAll("style, script, .mw-parser-output, sup").forEach(el => el.remove()); const text = clone.textContent.replace(/[\n\r]/g, " ").trim(); const lower = text.toLowerCase(); if (lower.includes("polling firm") || lower.includes("publisher") || lower.includes("institut")) { instituteColIndex = idx; } else if (lower.includes("date") || lower.includes("fieldwork")) { dateColIndex = idx; } else if ( text.length > 1 && !lower.includes("sample") && !lower.includes("margin") && !lower.includes("lead") && !lower.includes("others") && !lower.includes("abs") ) { candidateColumns.push({ candidate: text, colIndex: idx }); } }); if (candidateColumns.length > 0) break; } } const rows = Array.from(targetTable.querySelectorAll("tbody tr")); const records = []; rows.forEach(r => { const cells = Array.from(r.querySelectorAll("td, th")).map(c => c.textContent.trim().replace(/\n/g, "")); if (cells.length <= Math.max(instituteColIndex, dateColIndex)) return; let institute = cells[instituteColIndex] ? cells[instituteColIndex].replace(/\[.*?\]/g, "").trim() : ""; const isInvalid = !institute || /^\d+$/.test(institute) || institute.includes("%") || institute.toLowerCase().includes("polling") || institute.toLowerCase().includes("fieldwork") || institute.length < 2; if (isInvalid) return; const rawDateEn = cells[dateColIndex]; const rawDateFr = translateMonths(rawDateEn); candidateColumns.forEach(({ candidate, colIndex }) => { const cellValue = cells[colIndex]; if (!cellValue) return; const pct = parseFloat(cellValue.replace("%", "").replace(",", ".").replace("<", "").trim()); if (!isNaN(pct) && pct > 0 && pct <= 60) { records.push({ year: 2027, institute, rawDate: rawDateFr, candidate, score: pct }); } }); }); return records; } catch (err) { console.error("Erreur scraper:", err); return []; } 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Yamahata"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Élection présidentielle française 2027 (Sondages, 1er tour)","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Élection présidentielle française 2027 (Sondages, 1^er tour)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":78,"value":"

\n\n### Sources et méthodologie\n\nLes données présentées ci-dessous sont issues des synthèses de sondages compilées sur Wikipédia (Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election).\n\n* **Projections du 1^er tour :** seuls les candidats crédités d'au moins 5 % d'intentions de vote dans les enquêtes récentes sont affichés pour garantir la lisibilité du graphique.\n* **Lecture des séries :** chaque point représente un sondage publié par un institut agréé (Ifop, Ipsos, Elabe, OpinionWay, *etc.*). Les candidats sont ordonnés dans la légende selon leur score dans l'enquête la plus récente. Bien que les instituts testent plusieurs configurations, seule une hypothèse de chaque sondage est mise en avant ici.\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":865,"value":"\n✦︎\n Le code et les illustrations de ce notebook ont été réalisés avec l'assistance de Gemini, Claude et Grok.\n\n ---\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":123,"value":"### Sondages concernant le premier tour","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1100,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"// Sélecteur d'institut de sondage\nviewof selectedInstitute = {\n const institutes = Array.from(new Set(polls1stRound.map(d => d.institute))).sort();\n \n return Inputs.select([\"Tous\", ...institutes], {\n label: html`Institut de
sondage :`,\n value: \"Tous\"\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1234,"value":"viewof showDetails = htl.html`\n

\n el.style.display = this.checked ? 'block' : 'none')\"\n >\n \n Afficher les détails du dernier sondage (si disponibles)\n \n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1032,"value":"

ℹ️

\n Si les chiffres présentés vous paraissent inquiétants, sélectionnez l'arrière-plan
\n « qui fait honte » 🙈.\n
Autre suggestion : Choisissez cet arrière-plan si vous pensez que la France
risque de se prendre « une bonne droite » 👊.\n

\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1064,"value":"
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":17,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1020,"value":"viewof maxCandidates = Inputs.range([4, 8], { value: 5, step: 1, label: \"Nombre de candidats affichés\" })\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":492,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":231,"value":"viewof r = Inputs.range([24, 44], { value: Math.round(height/18), step: 0.5, label: \"Rayon des bulles (en pixels)\" })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":224,"value":"viewof MIN_GAP = Inputs.range([3, 10], {\n value: +((2 * r + 10) / pxPerUnit).toFixed(1),\n step: 0.1,\n label: \"Espacement entre les bulles (%)\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1372,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1364,"value":"html` Projections du 1^er tour (format JSON) `","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1376,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1377,"value":"$38","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1360,"value":"html`\n\n ${await FileAttachment(\"logo_X.png\").image({\n height: 40,\n style: \"vertical-align: middle; margin-left: -8px;\"\n })}\n Partager ce notebook sur X\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1273,"value":"---\n\n### Dates clés\n\n* Mi-mars 2027 : Publication de la liste officielle des candidats par le Conseil constitutionnel\n* Premier tour : Dimanche 18 avril 2027\n* Second tour : Dimanche 2 mai 2027\n\n\n### Lien utile\n\nVous pouvez vous référer aux notices rédigées par les instituts de sondages. Celles-ci sont publiées sur le site commission-des-sondages.fr en application de l'article 3 de la loi n° 77-808 du 19 juillet 1977 modifiée par la loi n° 2016-508 du 25 avril 2016. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1378,"value":"$39","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"$3a","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":110,"value":"Year = 2027","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":234,"value":"width = 1100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":278,"value":"height = 700","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":507,"value":"bgUrls = (async () => ({\n france: await FileAttachment(\"France_flag.jpg\").url(),\n paris: await FileAttachment(\"Paris_bkg.jpg\").url(),\n elysee: await FileAttachment(\"Palais_Élysee.jpg\").url(),\n Gemini_AI_image_I: await FileAttachment(\"Gemini_Generated_Image_6muf2u6muf2u6muf.jpg\").url(),\n Gemini_AI_image_II: await FileAttachment(\"Gemini_Generated_Image_p9pmgmp9pmgmp9pm.jpg\").url(),\n Gemini_AI_image_III: await FileAttachment(\"Gemini_Generated_Image_lcfymvlcfymvlcfy.jpg\").url(),\n Gemini_AI_image_IV: await FileAttachment(\"Gemini_Generated_Image_vm5ccjvm5ccjvm5c.jpg\").url(),\n Grok_AI_image_V: await FileAttachment(\"ARPqn.jpg\").url(),\n Grok_AI_image_VI: await FileAttachment(\"qUPmb.jpg\").url(),\n Grok_AI_image_VII: await FileAttachment(\"ewQA2.jpg\").url(),\n Grok_AI_image_VIII: await FileAttachment(\"AqMZv.gif\").url()\n}))()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":471,"value":"bgUrl = bgChoice ? (await bgUrls)[bgChoice] : null","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":281,"value":"marginTop = 85","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":284,"value":"marginBottom = 150","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":287,"value":"marginLeft = 60","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":290,"value":"marginRight = 280","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":379,"value":"shift_dx = 70","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":304,"value":"yDomain = [0, 40]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":293,"value":"yFrameHeight = height - marginTop - marginBottom","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":237,"value":"pxPerUnit = yFrameHeight / (yDomain[1] - yDomain[0])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1123,"value":"polls1stRound = {\n const archives = {\n \"archive_2026-09-14\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-09-14.json\").json(),\n \"archive_2026-09-06\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-09-06.json\").json(),\n \"archive_2026-09-05\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-09-05.json\").json(),\n \"archive_2026-09-03\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-09-03.json\").json(),\n \"archive_2026-09-02\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-09-02.json\").json(),\n \"archive_2026-08-30\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-08-30.json\").json(),\n \"archive_2026-08-29\": FileAttachment(\"polls1stRound_2026-08-29.json\").json()\n };\n\n return dataSource === \"live\" ? fetchWikipediaPolls : archives[dataSource];\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1188,"value":"pollDetails = [\n {\n institute: \"Ifop\",\n rawDate: \"24–25 Août 2026\",\n detail: \" \"\n },\n {\n institute: \"Elabe\",\n rawDate: \"26–28 Août 2026\",\n detail: \"Jean-Luc Mélenchon recule, Raphaël Glucksmann progresse, selon un sondage Elabe publié le 29 août 2026.\"\n },\n {\n institute: \"Cluster17\",\n rawDate: \"31 Août – 1 Sept. 2026\",\n detail: \"Marine Le Pen conserve une nette avance en vue de 2027. Jean-Luc Mélenchon apparaît en position de se qualifier pour le second tour.\"\n },\n {\n institute: \"OpinionWay\",\n rawDate: \"2–3 Sept. 2026\",\n detail: \"La qualification de Marine Le Pen serait grandement facilitée par l'explosion du bloc central (hypothèse n°3 : candidatures d'Édouard Philippe et de Gabriel Attal).\"\n },\n {\n institute: \"OpinionWay\",\n rawDate: \"9–10 Sept. 2026\",\n detail: \"Marine Le Pen se qualifierait largement pour le second tour de la présidentielle et serait opposée à Jean-Luc Mélenchon sans une candidature unique au centre.\"\n }\n];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1362,"value":"$3b","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":95,"value":"// Filtrage des sondages selon l'institut\nfilteredPolls = {\n if (selectedInstitute === \"Tous\") return polls1stRound;\n return polls1stRound.filter(d => d.institute === selectedInstitute);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":34,"value":"filteredPollsOver5 = filteredPolls.filter(d => d.score >= 5);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":53,"value":"// Liste des candidats atteignant au moins 5% (ordonnés par le dernier sondage)\nsortedCandidates = {\n const pollsOver5 = filteredPollsOver5;\n if (!pollsOver5.length) return [];\n \n const latestDate = pollsOver5[0].rawDate;\n const allCandidatesOver5 = Array.from(new Set(pollsOver5.map(d => d.candidate)));\n \n const latestData = pollsOver5.filter(d => d.rawDate === latestDate);\n const latestScoresMap = new Map(\n d3.rollups(latestData, v => d3.max(v, d => d.score), d => d.candidate)\n );\n\n return allCandidatesOver5\n .sort((a, b) => {\n const scoreA = latestScoresMap.get(a) ?? 0;\n const scoreB = latestScoresMap.get(b) ?? 0;\n return scoreB - scoreA;\n })\n .slice(0, maxCandidates);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":242,"value":"function pava(values) {\n const blocks = [];\n for (const v of values) {\n let block = { sum: v, count: 1, avg: v };\n blocks.push(block);\n while (\n blocks.length > 1 &&\n blocks[blocks.length - 2].avg < blocks[blocks.length - 1].avg\n ) {\n const b2 = blocks.pop();\n const b1 = blocks.pop();\n const merged = { sum: b1.sum + b2.sum, count: b1.count + b2.count };\n merged.avg = merged.sum / merged.count;\n blocks.push(merged);\n }\n }\n const result = [];\n for (const b of blocks) for (let i = 0; i < b.count; i++) result.push(b.avg);\n return result;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":246,"value":"function declutter(items, minGap) {\n\n const sorted = [...items].sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score);\n const z = sorted.map((d, i) => d.score + i * minGap);\n const v = pava(z); \n return sorted.map((d, i) => ({ ...d, y: v[i] - i * minGap }));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":259,"value":"function abbreviate(name) {\n return name\n .split(\" \")\n .flatMap(part => part.split(\"-\"))\n .map(part => part[0].toUpperCase())\n .join(\"\");\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":212,"value":"BUBBLE_X = \"__bubbles__\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":209,"value":"xDomain = Array.from(new Set(filteredPolls.map(d => d.rawDate))).reverse()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":215,"value":"xDomainWithBubbles = [...xDomain, BUBBLE_X]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":218,"value":"linesData = filteredPolls.filter(d => d.score >= 5)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"lastScores = sortedCandidates\n .map(candidate => {\n const rows = linesData.filter(d => d.candidate === candidate);\n if (rows.length === 0) return null;\n const last = rows.reduce((best, d) =>\n xDomain.indexOf(d.rawDate) > xDomain.indexOf(best.rawDate) ? d : best\n , rows[0]);\n return { candidate, score: last.score };\n })\n .filter(Boolean)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":401,"value":"latestByCandidate = new Map(\n d3.rollups(\n linesData,\n v => v[0],\n d => d.candidate\n )\n);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":227,"value":"bubbleData = declutter(lastScores, MIN_GAP).map(d => ({\n ...d,\n x: xDomain[xDomain.length - 1]\n}))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":320,"value":"photoByCandidate = ({\n \"Marine Le Pen\": await FileAttachment(\"vsYQR.jpg\").url(),\n \"Jean-Luc Mélenchon\": await FileAttachment(\"fdWDG.jpg\").url(),\n \"Édouard Philippe\": await FileAttachment(\"epZDG.jpg\").url(),\n \"Raphaël Glucksmann\": await FileAttachment(\"rgKIL.jpg\").url(),\n \"Gabriel Attal\": await FileAttachment(\"gaPLV.jpg\").url(),\n \"Bruno Retailleau\": await FileAttachment(\"brTJP.jpg\").url(),\n \"Marine Tondelier\": await FileAttachment(\"mtGRT.jpg\").url(),\n \"François Hollande\": await FileAttachment(\"fhZRD.jpg\").url(),\n \"Éric Zemmour\": await FileAttachment(\"ezGHL.jpg\").url(),\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":324,"value":"bubblesPhoto = bubbleData.filter(d => photoByCandidate[d.candidate])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":327,"value":"bubblesText = bubbleData.filter(d => !photoByCandidate[d.candidate])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":410,"value":"bubbleTitle = d => {\n const latest = latestByCandidate.get(d.candidate);\n return latest\n ? `${d.candidate} : ${latest.score}% (${latest.institute} - ${latest.rawDate})`\n : d.candidate;\n};","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1365,"value":"function downloadJSON(data, filename = \"polls_data.json\") {\n const blob = new Blob([JSON.stringify(data, null, 2)], { type: \"application/json\" });\n const url = URL.createObjectURL(blob);\n\n const a = document.createElement(\"a\");\n a.href = url;\n a.download = filename;\n document.body.appendChild(a);\n a.click();\n\n document.body.removeChild(a);\n URL.revokeObjectURL(url);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1367,"value":"// https://observablehq.com/@mbostock/saving-svg\nserialize = {\n const xmlns = \"http://www.w3.org/2000/xmlns/\";\n const xlinkns = \"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\";\n const svgns = \"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\";\n return function serialize(svg) {\n svg = svg.cloneNode(true);\n const fragment = window.location.href + \"#\";\n const walker = document.createTreeWalker(svg, NodeFilter.SHOW_ELEMENT);\n while (walker.nextNode()) {\n for (const attr of walker.currentNode.attributes) {\n if (attr.value.includes(fragment)) {\n attr.value = attr.value.replace(fragment, \"#\");\n }\n }\n }\n svg.setAttributeNS(xmlns, \"xmlns\", svgns);\n svg.setAttributeNS(xmlns, \"xmlns:xlink\", xlinkns);\n const serializer = new window.XMLSerializer;\n const string = serializer.serializeToString(svg);\n return new Blob([string], {type: \"image/svg+xml\"});\n };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1374,"value":"// https://observablehq.com/@mbostock/saving-svg\nfunction rasterize(svg) {\n let resolve, reject;\n const promise = new Promise((y, n) => (resolve = y, reject = n));\n const image = new Image;\n image.onerror = reject;\n image.onload = () => {\n const rect = svg.getBoundingClientRect();\n const context = DOM.context2d(rect.width, rect.height);\n context.drawImage(image, 0, 0, rect.width, rect.height);\n context.canvas.toBlob(resolve);\n };\n image.src = URL.createObjectURL(serialize(svg));\n return promise;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W3c","stdlib":"2","titling":"auto"}} 33:"$32:body"