2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Shorter Winters | Climate Central | Observable"}] 32:T7b6,Plot.plot({ width, subtitle: "Smoothed daily average temperatures", title: citySelect, y: { grid: true, label: null, domain: [ d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed)-1, d3.max(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed)+2 ], tickFormat: (d) => d + "°F" }, x: { type: "time", ticks: d3.timeMonth.every(1), tickFormat: d3.timeFormat("%b") }, color: { legend: true, domain: ["1970–1997", "Winter"], range: ["#003f5d", "#00b0bd"] // same color, different style }, marks: [ // Left blue shading Plot.areaY(leftTail, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed), y2: coldest90_tmax, fill: "#00b0bd", opacity: 0.55 }), // Right blue shading Plot.areaY(rightTail, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed), y2: coldest90_tmax, fill: "#00b0bd", opacity: 0.55 }), // Area fill Plot.areaY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed), y2: "ref_smoothed", fill: "white", stroke: "none", opacity: 1 }), // solid line Plot.lineY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y: "ref_smoothed", stroke: () => "1970–1997", strokeWidth: 3, opacity: 0.8 }), // arrows Plot.ruleX(annotations2, { x: (d) => d.date, y1: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed) + 1.5, y2: coldest90_tmax, stroke: "#003f5d" }), Plot.dot(annotations2, { x: (d) => d.date, y: coldest90_tmax, r: 4, fill: "#003f5d" }), Plot.text(annotations2, { x: (d) => d.date, y: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed) + 2.5, text: (d) => d.label, textAnchor: "middle", fontSize: 15, fill: "#003f5d", fontWeight: "bold" }) ] })33:T86b,Plot.plot({ width, subtitle: `Smoothed daily average temperatures`, title: citySelect, y: { grid: true, label: null, domain: [ d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed) -1, d3.max(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed) + 2 ], tickFormat: (d) => d + "°F" }, x: { type: "time", ticks: d3.timeMonth.every(1), tickFormat: d3.timeFormat("%b") }, color: { legend: true, domain: ["1970–1997", "Winter", `Max winter temperature`], range: ["#003f5d", "#00b0b3", "#025ca2"] // same color, different style }, marks: [ // Left blue shading Plot.areaY(leftTail, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed), y2: coldest90_tmax, fill: "#00b0bd", opacity: 0.55 }), // Right blue shading Plot.areaY(rightTail, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed), y2: coldest90_tmax, fill: "#00b0bd", opacity: 0.55 }), // dashed horizontal rule Plot.ruleY([coldest90_tmax], { stroke: "#025ca2", strokeWidth: 3, strokeDasharray: "3,4" }), // Area fill Plot.areaY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed), y2: "ref_smoothed", fill: "white", stroke: "none", opacity: 1 }), // solid line Plot.lineY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y: "ref_smoothed", stroke: () => "1970–1997", strokeWidth: 3, opacity: 0.8 }), // arrows Plot.ruleX(annotations, { x: (d) => d.date, y1: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed) + 1.5, y2: coldest90_tmax, stroke: "#003f5d" }), Plot.dot(annotations, { x: (d) => d.date, y: coldest90_tmax, r: 4, fill: "#003f5d" }), Plot.text(annotations, { x: (d) => d.date, y: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, (d) => d.ref_smoothed) + 2.5, text: (d) => d.label, textAnchor: "middle", fontSize: 15, fill: "#025ca2", fontWeight: "bold" }) ] })34:Ta54,Plot.plot({ width, subtitle: "Smoothed daily average temperatures", title: citySelect, y: { grid: true, label: null, domain: [ d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d => d.ref_smoothed)-1, d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_smoothed) + 2 ], tickFormat: d => d + "°F" }, x: { type: "time", ticks: d3.timeMonth.every(1), tickFormat: d3.timeFormat("%b") }, color: { legend: true, domain: ["1998-2025", "Past Winter", `New Winter`], range: ["#ff7b00", "#8fd4db", "#58518d"] // same color, different style }, marks: [ // Left blue shading Plot.areaY(leftTail2, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_smoothed), y2: coldest90_tmax, fill: "#e48268", opacity: 0.25 }), // Right blue shading Plot.areaY(rightTail2, { x: "date", y1: d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_smoothed), y2: coldest90_tmax, fill: "#e48268", opacity: 0.25 }), // dashed horizontal rule Plot.ruleY([coldest90_tmax], { stroke: "#025ca2", strokeWidth: 3, strokeDasharray: "3,4" }), // Area fill Plot.areaY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y1:d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d=> d.mod_smoothed), y2: "mod_smoothed", fill: "white", stroke: "none", opacity:1 }), // solid line Plot.lineY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y: "ref_smoothed", stroke: "#8fd4db", strokeWidth: 3, opacity: 0.5 }), // solid line Plot.lineY(climatologyWithDate, { x: "date", y: "mod_smoothed", stroke: "#ff7b00", strokeWidth: 3, opacity: 0.7 }), // arrows Plot.ruleX(annotations, { x: d => d.date, y1: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.ref_smoothed) + 1.5, y2: coldest90_tmax, stroke: "#8fd4db", strokeDasharray: '2,4', strokeWidth: 4 }), Plot.dot(annotations, { x: d => d.date, y: coldest90_tmax, r: 4, fill: "#8fd4db", strokeWidth: 4, opacity: 1 }), // arrows Plot.ruleX(annotations1, { x: d => d.date, y1: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.ref_smoothed) + 1.5, y2: coldest90_tmax, stroke: "#58518d", strokeWidth: 3, opacity: 1 }), Plot.dot(annotations1, { x: d => d.date, y: coldest90_tmax, r: 4, fill: "#58518d", opacity: 1 }), Plot.text(annotations1, { x: d => d.date, y: d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_smoothed) + 2.5, text: d => d.label, textAnchor: "middle", fontSize: 15, fill: "#58518d", fontWeight: "bold" }), ] }); 35:T99a,chart2 = { const svg = d3.create("svg") .attr("width", width) .attr("height", height2); // City labels svg.append("g") .selectAll("text") .data(shifts) .join("text") .attr("x", margin2.left - 20) .attr("y", d => y(d.marketname)) .attr("dy", "0.35em") .attr("text-anchor", "end") .attr("font-weight", 600) .text(d => d.marketname); const yCenter = d => y(d.city) + y.bandwidth() / 2; svg.append("g") .selectAll("line") .data(shifts) .join("line") .attr("x1", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.ref_start))) .attr("x2", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.ref_end))) .attr("y1", yCenter) .attr("y2", yCenter) .attr("stroke", "#9ca3af") .attr("stroke-width", 4); svg.append("g") .selectAll("circle") .data(shifts.flatMap(d => ([ { city: d.marketname, date: d.ref_start }, { city: d.marketname, date: d.ref_end } ]))) .join("circle") .attr("cx", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.date))) .attr("cy",yCenter) .attr("r", 6) .attr("fill", "white") .attr("stroke", "#6b7280") .attr("stroke-width", 2); const currentGroup = svg.append("g"); const lines = currentGroup .selectAll("line") .data(shifts) .join("line") .attr("x1", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.ref_start))) .attr("x2", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.ref_end))) .attr("y1", yCenter) .attr("y2",yCenter) .attr("stroke", "#84cc16") .attr("stroke-width", 6); const dots = currentGroup .selectAll("circle") .data(shifts.flatMap(d => ([ { city: d.marketname, date: d.mod_start }, { city: d.marketname, date: d.mod_end } ]))) .join("circle") .attr("cx", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.date))) .attr("cy",yCenter) .attr("r", 7) .attr("fill", "#84cc16") .attr("stroke", "white") .attr("stroke-width", 2); lines .transition() .duration(900) .ease(d3.easeCubicOut) .attr("x1", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.mod_start))) .attr("x2", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.mod_end))); dots .transition() .duration(900) .ease(d3.easeCubicOut) .attr("cx", d => x(parseWinterDate(d.date))); svg.append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height2 - margin2.bottom})`) .call( d3.axisBottom(x) .ticks(d3.timeMonth) .tickFormat(d3.timeFormat("%b")) ) .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove()); } 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30:{"id":"ef937b5f0c4031be","slug":"shorter-winters","title":"Shorter Winters","thumbnail":"93bc64a2016c4368dd08983ce492efb257a3900d6f4b62611f06536297f262b8","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2026-01-29T01:46:42.129Z","update_time":"$D2026-09-01T20:14:57.977Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2026-02-12T19:57:26.319Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"1b16cfac8e47ddf9","login":"climatecentral","name":"Climate Central","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b8d84fbc6265f9a7c731e62fc076af7c84c7be3a9be06e52da319786d6b129dd","tier":"pro_2024"},"version":3537,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"43d98796353ee1e2","login":"ktrudeau","name":"Kaitlyn Trudeau","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3650447af2e2411fcfe3aa899ed520cce0fe01a62f5b78ec6617c32d64cdf326","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"43d98796353ee1e2","login":"ktrudeau","name":"Kaitlyn Trudeau","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3650447af2e2411fcfe3aa899ed520cce0fe01a62f5b78ec6617c32d64cdf326","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"team","id":"1b16cfac8e47ddf9","login":"climatecentral","name":"Climate Central","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b8d84fbc6265f9a7c731e62fc076af7c84c7be3a9be06e52da319786d6b129dd","tier":"pro_2024","role":"viewer"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Shorter Winters","cells":[{"id":651,"value":"md`\n# Shorter Winters \n\nThis notebook walks through the **methodology** behind our 2026 Climate Matters on Shorter Winters. With this analysis, we are essentially asking:\n> *How long does winter last today, relative to the past?*\n\nThis analysis does not compare the intensity of the winter temperatures, only the length of time that we experience comparable winter-like temperatures. Our methodology is partially based on a 2020 analysis of Brian B: Are Summer/Winter Longer/Shorter Than They Used To Be?.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2189,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1131,"value":"*Select a city from the dropdown to illustrate the methodology used in this analysis.*","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"viewof citySelect = Inputs.select(d3.map(shifts, d=> d.marketname), {label:\"City\",value: \"Reno\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2205,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":659,"value":"md`\n## Step 1: Daily Average Temperatures\n\nWe begin by pulling **daily average temperatures** from 1970-2025 via NOAA's Applied Climate Information System.\n\nThis long record allows us to compare a *historical climate* to a *recent climate*.\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1145,"value":"Inputs.table(query,{\n columns: [\n \"year\", \n \"date\",\n \"value\"\n ], \n header: {\n \"year\": \"Year\",\n \"date\": \"Day\",\n \"value\": \"Average temperature (°F)\",\n },\n format: {\n \"year\": d => d,\n \"date\": d=> d,\n \"value\": d=> d + \"°F\"\n },\n align: {\n\n \"year\": \"left\",\n \"date\": \"left\",\n \"value\": \"left\"\n },\n width: {\n \n \"year\": 50,\n \"date\": 50,\n \"value\": 50\n },\n select: false,\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2218,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":661,"value":"md`\n## Step 2: Create a Past and Recent Climatology\n\nWe split the daily data over this 56-year period in half, and calculate daily average temperatures for each half, creating two **28-year climatologies**:\n\n- **Past:** 1970–1997 \n- **Recent:** 1998–2025 \n\nEach climatology represents the *average annual temperature cycle* over that 28-year time period.\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1232,"value":"Plot.plot({\n width,\n title: citySelect,\n subtitle: \"Daily average temperature climatologies\",\n y: {\n grid: true,\n domain: [\n d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d => d.ref_temp) - 1,\n d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_temp) + 2\n ],\n tickFormat: d => d + \"°F\"\n },\n x: {\n type: \"time\",\n ticks: d3.timeMonth.every(1),\n tickFormat: d3.timeFormat(\"%b\")\n },\n color: {\n legend: true,\n domain: [\"1970–1997\", \"1998–2025\"],\n range: [\"#003f5d\", \"\"]\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.lineY(rawData, {\n x: \"date\",\n y: \"temp\",\n stroke: \"period\",\n strokeWidth: 3,\n opacity: 0.8,\n\n })\n ]\n});\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3513,"value":"Plot.plot({\n width,\n title: citySelect,\n subtitle: \"Daily average temperature climatologies\",\n y: {\n grid: true,\n domain: [\n d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d => d.ref_temp) - 1,\n d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_temp) + 2\n ],\n tickFormat: d => d + \"°F\"\n },\n x: {\n type: \"time\",\n ticks: d3.timeMonth.every(1),\n tickFormat: d3.timeFormat(\"%b\")\n },\n color: {\n legend: true,\n domain: [\"1970–1997\", \"\"],\n range: [\"#003f5d\", \"#00d5ff\"]\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.lineY(rawData, {\n x: \"date\",\n y: \"temp\",\n stroke: \"period\",\n strokeWidth: 3,\n opacity: 0.8,\n\n }),\n Plot.lineY(smoothData, {\n x: \"date\",\n y: \"temp\",\n stroke: \"period\",\n strokeWidth: 3,\n opacity: 0.8,\n\n })\n ]\n});\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3533,"value":"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2221,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":745,"value":"md`\n## Step 3: Smooth the data \nNext, we **smooth the data** for each time period. Why do we do this?\n\nDaily temperatures can be broken down into two things:
\n* Underlying seasonal patterns (slow, predictable changes)
\n* Short-term noise (weather events, measurement quirks)\n\nSmoothing is a way to separate the *big, meaningful pattern* from the day-to-day *randomness*.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":692,"value":"Plot.plot({\n width,\n title: citySelect,\n subtitle: \"Smoothed daily average temperature climatologies\",\n y: {\n grid: true,\n domain: [\n d3.min(climatologyWithDate, d => d.ref_temp) - 1,\n d3.max(climatologyWithDate, d => d.mod_temp) + 2\n ],\n tickFormat: d => d + \"°F\"\n },\n x: {\n type: \"time\",\n ticks: d3.timeMonth.every(1),\n tickFormat: d3.timeFormat(\"%b\") \n },\n color: {\n legend: true,\n domain: [\"1970–1997\", \"1998–2025\"],\n range: [\"#003f5d\", \"#ff7b00\"]\n },\n marks: [\n\n Plot.lineY(smoothData, {\n x: \"date\",\n y: \"temp\",\n stroke: \"period\",\n strokeWidth: 3,\n opacity: 0.8,\n tip: true\n \n}),\n \n ]\n});\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2237,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":667,"value":"md`\n## Step 3: Defining the Winter of the Past\nUsing the past climatology, we identify the **coldest consecutive 90-day period** which will serve as our baseline **definition of winter**.\n\nFor the example below, the coldest consecutive 90-days during the past climatology begins ${cityShift.ref_start} and ends ${cityShift.ref_end} (highlighted in blue).`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1309,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":669,"value":"md`\n## Step 4: Calculate the Maximum Winter Temperature\n\nWithin the coldest 90-day window in our past climatology (${cityShift.ref_start} through ${cityShift.ref_end}), we identify:\n\n> The **warmest day** in that window\n\nThis temperature becomes our **winter threshold** — days warmer than this are no longer considered \"winter-like.\"\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1755,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":671,"value":"md`\n## Step 5: Identify Winter in the Recent Period\n\nWe now apply our **winter threshold** (${cityShift['Daily Max (°F)']}°F) from the past climatology to the *recent climatology*, looking for the span of days at or below this temperature. \n\nThis is now the period we consider to be **winter in the recent period**.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1964,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":673,"value":"md`\n## Step 6: Calculate the Change in Length of Winter\n\nThe past winter period is defined as **90 days** intentionally.\n\nAny difference in the recent winter period reflects a **change in winter duration**.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":675,"value":"md`\n### Using data for ${citySelect}:\n- Historical winter length: 90 days \n- Recent winter length: ${cityShift[\"Total length\"]} days \n- **Change in winter length: ${cityShift.Change} days**\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2948,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3207,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2817,"value":"Plot.plot({ // Initialize the plot\n style: {\n fontSize: 18\n },\n width: width,\n projection: \"albers-usa\", // Set the projection,\n title: \"Shrinking Days of Winter\",\n color: {\n type: \"threshold\",\n domain: [-60,-28,-14,-7,-1,1,7,14,28,60],\n extent: [\"#003f5d\",\"#ff7b01\"],\n legend: true,\n label: \"Change in days\"\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.geo(stateShapes), // Add the state boundaries\n Plot.dot(CMjoined, { // Create dot marks (bubbles) using data from power_plants\n x: \"lon\", // Provide longitude values\n y: \"lat\", // Provide latitude values\n fill: \"Change\", // Update bubble radius based on this variable's value,\n stroke: \"black\",\n strokeWidth: 0.5,\n opacity: 0.8,\n r: 8,\n tip: {\n channels: { \n City: \"marketname\", \n }, \n format: { \n City: d => d, \n Change: d=> d> 0 ? \"+\" + d + \" days\" : d + \" days\",\n } \n } \n })\n ],\n\n marginLeft: 20,\n marginRight: 50// Update margins\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":919,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":916,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":883,"value":"___","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":983,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":912,"value":"### CODE FOR NOTEBOOK FUNCTIONALITY (can be ignored)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2419,"value":"bgColor = {\n if(cityShift.Change > 0 ) {\n return \"red\";\n } else {\n return \"blue\";\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3262,"value":"increase = shifts.filter((d) => d.Change < 0)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2646,"value":"getDays = function(x) {\n if(x > 1 || x < -1) {\n return \"days\";\n } else {\n return \"day\"\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2639,"value":"getStartDir = function(x) {\n if(x >0) {\n return \"later\";\n } else if ( x < 0 ) {\n return \"earlier\";\n } else {\n \"around the same time\"\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1560,"value":"rawData = [\n ...climatologyWithDate.map(d => ({\n date: d.date,\n temp: d.ref_temp,\n period: \"1970–1997\"\n })),\n ...climatologyWithDate.map(d => ({\n date: d.date,\n temp: d.mod_temp,\n period: \"1998–2025\"\n }))\n];\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1674,"value":"start = d3.utcFormat(\"%Y-%m-%d\")(\n new Date(Date.UTC(\n 2000,\n new Date(cityShift.ref_start).getMonth(),\n new Date(cityShift.ref_start).getDate()\n ))\n);\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2058,"value":"start1 = d3.utcFormat(\"%Y-%m-%d\")(\n new Date(Date.UTC(\n 2000,\n new Date(cityShift.mod_start).getMonth(),\n new Date(cityShift.mod_start).getDate()\n ))\n);\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1675,"value":"end = d3.utcFormat(\"%Y-%m-%d\")(\n new Date(Date.UTC(\n 2000,\n new Date(cityShift.ref_end).getMonth(),\n new Date(cityShift.ref_end).getDate()\n ))\n);\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2062,"value":"end1 = d3.utcFormat(\"%Y-%m-%d\")(\n new Date(Date.UTC(\n 2000,\n new Date(cityShift.mod_end).getMonth(),\n new Date(cityShift.mod_end).getDate()\n ))\n);\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1291,"value":"coldest90_tmax = cityShift[\"Daily Max (°F)\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1598,"value":"smoothData = [\n ...climatologyWithDate.map(d => ({\n date: d.date,\n temp: d.ref_smoothed,\n period: \"1970–1997\"\n })),\n ...climatologyWithDate.map(d => ({\n date: d.date,\n temp: d.mod_smoothed,\n period: \"1998–2025\"\n }))\n];\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1253,"value":"shiftedClimatology = climatologyWithDate.map(d => {\n const year = d.date.getFullYear();\n const month = d.date.getMonth(); // 0 = Jan, 6 = Jul\n\n return {\n ...d,\n plotDate: new Date(\n month < 6 ? year + 1 : year, // Jan–Jun → next year\n month,\n d.date.getDate()\n )\n };\n});\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":511,"value":"past = cityClimatology.map(d => d.ref_temp)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":500,"value":"recent = cityClimatology.map(d => d.mod_temp)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2820,"value":"changeByFilename = new Map(\n shifts.map(d => [d.filename, d.Change, d.ref_length, d[\"Total length\"]])\n);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":223,"value":"parseWinterDate = d => {\n const date = new Date(d);\n const year = date.getMonth() < 6 ? 2001 : 2000;\n return new Date(year, date.getMonth(), date.getDate());\n};\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":225,"value":"rowHeight = 48;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2149,"value":"changeStart = +d3.utcFormat(\"%j\")(new Date(start1)) - +d3.utcFormat(\"%j\")(new Date(start))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":246,"value":"\n x = d3.scaleTime()\n .domain([\n new Date(2000, 10, 15), // Nov 15\n new Date(2001, 2, 31) // Mar 31\n ])\n .range([margin2.left, width - margin2.right]);\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":247,"value":"y = d3.scaleBand()\n .domain(shifts.map(d => d.marketname ))\n .range([margin2.top, height2 - margin2.bottom])\n .padding(0.3);\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1070,"value":"filename = CMStations.filter((d) => d.marketname === citySelect)[0].filename;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1075,"value":"station = CMStations.filter((d) => d.filename === filename)[0].station;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":256,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":227,"value":"margin2 = ({ top: 40, right: 40, bottom: 40, left: 160 });","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":229,"value":"height2 = shifts.length * rowHeight + margin2.top + margin2.bottom;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"cityShift = shifts.filter((d) => d.marketname === citySelect)[0]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"shifts = FileAttachment(\"Data for Shorter Winters CM - SMOOTHED RESULTS (2)@2.csv\").csv({typed:true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"climatologies = FileAttachment(\"climatologies.csv\").csv({typed:true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":471,"value":"climatologyWithDate = cityClimatology.map(d => ({\n ...d,\n date: new Date(2000, +d.mody.slice(0, 2) - 1, +d.mody.slice(3, 5))\n}));\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":409,"value":"cityClimatology = climatologies.filter((d) => d.marketname === citySelect)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2828,"value":"CMjoined = CMStations.map(d => ({\n ...d,\n Change: changeByFilename.get(d.filename),\n}));\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1061,"value":"CMStations = FileAttachment(\"2026CMStations.csv\").csv({typed:true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":26,"value":"height = 180;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":113,"value":"direction = cityShift.Change > 0 ? \"longer\" : \"shorter\";","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"margin = ({ top: 40, right: 80, bottom: 40, left: 80 });","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":30,"value":"historical = ({\n start: cityShift.ref_start,\n end: cityShift.ref_end,\n days: 90,\n label: \"1970–1997\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":32,"value":"current = ({\n start: cityShift.mod_start,\n end: cityShift.mod_end,\n days: cityShift[\"Total length\"],\n label: \"1998–2025\",\n threshold: cityShift['Daily Max (°F)']\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1056,"value":"query = getData(filename)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1081,"value":"ep = getEndpoint(filename)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1030,"value":"function getEndpoint() {\n let url = \"https://data.rcc-acis.org/StnData?params=\";\n // Get the basic data and associated station \n let mm = CMStations.filter((d) => d.filename == filename);\n let stn = mm[0].station;\n let fn = mm[0].filename;\n let mn = mm[0].marketname;\n let params = {\n sid: stn,\n sdate: `1970-01-01`,\n edate: `2025-12-31`,\n elems: [\n {\n name: \"avgt\",\n interval: \"dly\",\n duration: \"dly\",\n precision: 2\n }\n \n ]\n };\n \n // Fetch JSON data using params and create new object\n var paramsString = JSON.stringify(params);\n var endpoint = `${url}${paramsString}`;\n return endpoint;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1044,"value":"function getData(filename) {\n let ep = getEndpoint(filename);\n let data = fetch(ep)\n .then((response) => response.json())\n .then(function (elem) {\n let arr= [];\n for (var i = 0; i < elem.data.length; i++) {\n arr.push({\n year: +d3.utcFormat(\"%Y\")(new Date(elem.data[i][0])),\n date: d3.utcFormat(\"%m-%d\")(new Date(elem.data[i][0])),\n value: +elem.data[i][1]\n })}\n return arr;\n \n });\n return data;\n}\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1672,"value":"annotations = [\n { label: `First day below ${cityShift['Daily Max (°F)']}°F`, date: start },\n { label: `Last day below ${cityShift['Daily Max (°F)']}°F`, date: end },\n];\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2056,"value":"annotations1 = [\n { label: `${d3.timeFormat(\"%b %d\")(new Date(cityShift.mod_start))}`, date: start1 },\n { label: `${d3.timeFormat(\"%b %d\")(new Date(cityShift.mod_end))}`, date: end1 },\n];\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1836,"value":"leftTail = climatologyWithDate.filter(d => d.mody <= cityShift.ref_end);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1993,"value":"leftTail2 = climatologyWithDate.filter(d => d.mody <= cityShift.mod_end);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1840,"value":"rightTail = climatologyWithDate.filter(d => d.mody >= cityShift.ref_start);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1998,"value":"rightTail2 = climatologyWithDate.filter(d => d.mody >= cityShift.mod_start);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1798,"value":"annotations2 = [\n { label: `Start: ${d3.timeFormat(\"%b %d\")(new Date(cityShift.ref_start))}`, date: start },\n { label: `End: ${d3.timeFormat(\"%b %d\")(new Date(cityShift.ref_end))}`, date: end },\n];\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2165,"value":"changeEnd = +d3.utcFormat(\"%j\")(new Date(end1)) - +d3.utcFormat(\"%j\")(new Date(end))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2106,"value":"annotations3 = [\n { label: `${d3.timeFormat(\"%b %d\")(new Date(cityShift.ref_start))}`, date: start },\n { label: `${d3.timeFormat(\"%b %d\")(new Date(cityShift.ref_end))}`, date: end },\n];\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3212,"value":"function winterDate(d) {\n const date = new Date(d);\n const m = date.getMonth(); // 0 = Jan\n const refYear = m >= 10 ? 2000 : 2001; // Nov–Dec → 2000, Jan–Mar → 2001\n return new Date(refYear, m, date.getDate());\n}\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2720,"value":"import {stateShapes} from \"@observablehq/us-county-datasets\"\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"2"}} 31:"$30:body"