29:null 2a:["$","title",null,{"children":"Predicting Wins in Baseball | Charles Redmond | Observable"}] 2f:T589,{ const svgDims = [600,400] const svg = d3.select(DOM.svg(svgDims[0],svgDims[1])).attr("style","background:white;border:1px solid white") const xScale = d3.scaleLinear().domain([-350,350]).range([30,570]) const yScale = d3.scaleLinear().domain([-5,120]).range([370,30]) const xAxis = svg.append("g").attr("transform",`translate(0,${yScale(0)})`).call(d3.axisBottom(xScale)) const yAxis = svg.append("g").attr("transform",`translate(${xScale(0)},0)`).call(d3.axisLeft(yScale)) for(let i = 0; i < 390; i++){ svg.append("circle") .attr("r",3) .attr("cx",xScale(train[i].Diff)) .attr("cy",yScale(train[i].W)) } const regress = ss.linearRegression(train.map(d => [d.Diff,parseInt(d.W)])) const estSlope = regress.m const estInt = regress.b if(method == "1"){ mutable m = slope mutable b = intercept }else{ mutable m = estSlope mutable b = estInt } const pathData = d3.line().x(d => xScale(d.x)).y(d => yScale(m*d.x+ b))(linePoints) const path = svg.append("path") .attr("d",pathData) .attr("stroke","cornflowerblue") .attr("stroke-width",3) .attr("fill","none") let sumSquares = 0 for(let i = 0; i < 390; i++){ const y = train[i].W const yhat = m*train[i].Diff + b const squaredDiff = Math.pow(y - yhat,2) sumSquares += squaredDiff } mutable rmse = Math.sqrt(sumSquares/390) yield svg.node() }30:T51d,{ const svgDims = [600,400] const svg = d3.select(DOM.svg(svgDims[0],svgDims[1])).attr("style","background:white;border:1px solid white") const xScale = d3.scaleLinear().domain([-350,350]).range([30,570]) const yScale = d3.scaleLinear().domain([-5,120]).range([370,30]) const xAxis = svg.append("g").attr("transform",`translate(0,${yScale(0)})`).call(d3.axisBottom(xScale)) const yAxis = svg.append("g").attr("transform",`translate(${xScale(0)},0)`).call(d3.axisLeft(yScale)) for(let i = 0; i < 180; i++){ svg.append("circle") .attr("r",3) .attr("cx",xScale(test[i].Diff)) .attr("cy",yScale(test[i].W)) } const regress = ss.linearRegression(train.map(d => [d.Diff,parseInt(d.W)])) const estSlope = regress.m const estInt = regress.b const pathData = d3.line().x(d => xScale(d.x)).y(d => yScale(estSlope*d.x+ estInt))(linePoints) const path = svg.append("path") .attr("d",pathData) .attr("stroke","cornflowerblue") .attr("stroke-width",3) .attr("fill","none") let sumSquares = 0 for(let i = 0; i < 180; i++){ const y = test[i].W const yhat = estSlope*test[i].Diff + estInt const squaredDiff = Math.pow(y - yhat,2) sumSquares += squaredDiff } mutable rmseTest = Math.sqrt(sumSquares/180) yield svg.node() }31:[] 2d:{"id":"b467681c418eb864","slug":"predicting-wins-in-baseball","title":"Predicting Wins in Baseball","thumbnail":"e328357cb421f325229fa7f01ec36ff620b13a5900f03f81828a0f5529ec4d8e","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-06-18T12:05:23.600Z","update_time":"$D2020-06-18T13:38:11.919Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-06-18T17:53:21.958Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"66151b62b45d9fca","login":"credmond","name":"Charles Redmond","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/50425ed9f407a7b47d1c471a09963f335e0652ab9acc237869e2d7949fb04a77","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":201,"publish_version":201,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"37a987477e8b6db3","login":"credmond","name":"Charles Redmond","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/50425ed9f407a7b47d1c471a09963f335e0652ab9acc237869e2d7949fb04a77","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"37a987477e8b6db3","login":"credmond","name":"Charles Redmond","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/50425ed9f407a7b47d1c471a09963f335e0652ab9acc237869e2d7949fb04a77","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":3,"collection":{"id":"6c5e647a4bb0a37b","slug":"regression","title":"Regression","owner":{"id":"66151b62b45d9fca","login":"credmond","name":"Charles Redmond"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Predicting Wins in Baseball","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Predicting Wins in Baseball`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"html`

Data Wrangling

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Estimation

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":108,"value":"tex`y = ${d3.format(\".2f\")(m)}x + ${d3.format(\".2f\")(b)}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"tex`rmse = ${d3.format(\".2f\")(rmse)}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":67,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":94,"value":"viewof intercept = slider({max:120,description:\"set intercept\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":100,"value":"viewof slope = slider({max:.5,description:\"set slope\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":122,"value":"viewof method = radio({options:[\n {label:\"visual best\",value:1},\n {label:\"mathematical best\",value:2}\n],value:1})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":164,"value":"html`

Prediction

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":167,"value":"viewof n = number({value:0,step:1})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":170,"value":"tex`y = ${0.10}*\\color{tomato}${n}\\color{black} + ${80.96} = \\color{tomato}${.1*n+80.96}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":180,"value":"html`

Testing

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":192,"value":"tex`y = ${0.10}x + ${80.96}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":197,"value":"tex`rmse = ${d3.format(\".2f\")(rmseTest)}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":185,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":84,"value":"html`

Variables and Code

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":87,"value":"linePoints = {\n const data = []\n for(let i = -350;i <= 350; i++){\n data.push({x:i,y:slope*i+intercept})\n }\n return data\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":111,"value":"mutable rmse = 0","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":186,"value":"mutable rmseTest = 0","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":155,"value":"mutable m = 0","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":157,"value":"mutable b = 0","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"html`

Libraries

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"import {slider,button,select,text,radio,checkbox,number} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":8,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":10,"value":"stdlib = require( \"https://unpkg.com/@stdlib/stdlib@0.0.32/dist/stdlib-flat.min.js\" )","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":13,"value":"normal = stdlib.base.random.normal","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":15,"value":"ss = require(\"https://unpkg.com/simple-statistics@6.1.0/dist/simple-statistics.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W31","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2e:"$2d:body"