2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Untitled | 🪦 dis-2026-summer | Observable"}] 32:T20c1,dense_market = { const pct = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : `${v.toFixed(2)}%`; const num = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const fullDate = d3.utcFormat("%Y-%m-%d"); const reservedHeight = 760; const baseRows = horizonGapupWall .filter(d => horizonSector === "All sectors" || d.sector === horizonSector ) .filter(d => selectedTicker === "ALL" || d.ticker === selectedTicker ) .filter(d => { if (horizonTimeMode !== "Selected market event only") return true; const start = selectedEvent.start_date instanceof Date ? selectedEvent.start_date : new Date(selectedEvent.start_date); const end = selectedEvent.end_date instanceof Date ? selectedEvent.end_date : new Date(selectedEvent.end_date); return d.date_obj >= start && d.date_obj <= end; }); if (baseRows.length === 0) { const emptyWrapper = html`

`; emptyWrapper.append(html`

No sampled gap-up observations found.

Try changing the sector, ticker, or event filter.

`); return emptyWrapper; } const rankedTickers = Array.from( d3.rollup( baseRows, rows => ({ ticker: rows[0].ticker, company_name: rows[0].company_name, sector: rows[0].sector, observations: rows.length, avg_abs_move: d3.mean(rows, d => d.abs_intraday_return_pct), max_gap: d3.max(rows, d => d.gap_pct) }), d => d.ticker ), ([ticker, values]) => values ) .sort((a, b) => d3.descending(a.avg_abs_move, b.avg_abs_move) || d3.descending(a.max_gap, b.max_gap) ) .slice(0, horizonMaxRows) .map(d => d.ticker); const chartRows = baseRows .filter(d => rankedTickers.includes(d.ticker)) .map((d, i) => ({ ...d, hover_id: `dense-${i}`, row_label: `${d.ticker} · ${d.company_name}` })); const rowOrder = rankedTickers.map(ticker => { const d = chartRows.find(row => row.ticker === ticker); return d ? `${d.ticker} · ${d.company_name}` : ticker; }); const oneTickerView = rowOrder.length <= 1; const rowByHoverId = new Map( chartRows.map(d => [d.hover_id, d]) ); const yExtent = Math.max( 10, Math.ceil(d3.max(chartRows, d => Math.abs(d.intraday_return_pct)) / 5) * 5 ); const tooltipHTML = d => `

${d.ticker} · ${fullDate(d.date_obj)}

Date: ${fullDate(d.date_obj)}

Ticker: ${d.ticker}

Company: ${d.company_name}

Sector: ${d.sector}

Overnight gap-up: ${pct(d.gap_pct)}

Same-day return after open: ${pct(d.intraday_return_pct)}

Volume: ${num(d.volume)}

Outcome: ${d.outcome_label}

VIX mood previous day: ${d.vix_mood_prev_day}

${ d.event_label ? `

Market event: ${d.event_label}

` : "" } `; const chartHeight = oneTickerView ? 430 : Math.max(260, 90 + rowOrder.length * 32); const wrapper = oneTickerView ? html`

` : html`

`; const chart = Plot.plot({ title: "Dense market overview: sampled gap-up behavior over time", subtitle: horizonTimeMode === "Selected market event only" ? `${selectedEvent.short_label} — ${ selectedTicker === "ALL" ? horizonSector : selectedTicker }` : `${selectedTicker === "ALL" ? horizonSector : selectedTicker} — strongest sampled gap-up movers over time`, width: 1120, height: chartHeight, marginLeft: 190, marginRight: 245, marginTop: 60, marginBottom: 95, style: { fontSize: "14px" }, x: { label: "Time →", type: "utc", grid: true }, y: { label: null, domain: [-yExtent, yExtent], ticks: [0], tickFormat: () => "" }, fy: { label: null, domain: rowOrder }, color: { label: "Same-day return after open", type: "diverging", scheme: "RdYlGn", pivot: 0, domain: [-20, 20], legend: true }, r: { range: [2, 7] }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY( rowOrder.map(row_label => ({ row_label, y: 0 })), { fy: "row_label", y: "y", stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0.18 } ), Plot.dot(chartRows, { x: "date_obj", y: "intraday_return_pct", fy: "row_label", fill: "intraday_return_pct", r: "abs_intraday_return_pct", fillOpacity: 0.78, stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 0.35, strokeOpacity: 0.35 }), Plot.dot(chartRows, { x: "date_obj", y: "intraday_return_pct", fy: "row_label", r: 8, fill: "white", fillOpacity: 0.001, stroke: "none", title: "hover_id" }) ] }); document .querySelectorAll(".dense-market-custom-tooltip") .forEach(el => el.remove()); const tooltip = html` `; document.body.appendChild(tooltip); function moveTooltip(event) { let x = event.clientX + 14; let y = event.clientY + 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; const bounds = tooltip.getBoundingClientRect(); if (bounds.right > window.innerWidth) { x = event.clientX - bounds.width - 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; } if (bounds.bottom > window.innerHeight) { y = event.clientY - bounds.height - 14; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; } } const dotGroups = chart.querySelectorAll("g[aria-label='dot']"); const hoverGroup = dotGroups[dotGroups.length - 1]; const hoverDots = hoverGroup ? hoverGroup.querySelectorAll("circle") : []; hoverDots.forEach(dot => { const titleNode = dot.querySelector("title"); const hoverId = titleNode ? titleNode.textContent : null; if (titleNode) titleNode.remove(); const d = rowByHoverId.get(hoverId); if (!d) return; dot.style.cursor = "pointer"; dot.addEventListener("pointerenter", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); tooltip.style.display = "block"; moveTooltip(event); }); dot.addEventListener("pointermove", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); moveTooltip(event); }); dot.addEventListener("pointerleave", () => { tooltip.style.display = "none"; }); }); invalidation.then(() => { tooltip.remove(); }); wrapper.append(chart); return wrapper; }33:T182e,view3 = { const pct = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : `${v.toFixed(2)}%`; const num = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const fullDate = d3.utcFormat("%Y-%m-%d"); const axisDate = d3.utcFormat("%b %d"); if (eventRows.length === 0) { return html`

No sampled gap-up examples found for this event window.

Try moving the slider to another event window or selecting “ALL” in the ticker dropdown.

`; } const plotRows = eventRows .slice(0, 600) .map((d, i) => ({ ...d, hover_id: `event-window-${i}` })); const rowByHoverId = new Map( plotRows.map(d => [d.hover_id, d]) ); const tooltipHTML = d => `

${d.ticker} · ${fullDate(d.date_obj)}

Date: ${fullDate(d.date_obj)}

Ticker: ${d.ticker}

Company: ${d.company_name}

Sector: ${d.sector}

Overnight gap: ${pct(d.gap_pct)}

Same-day return after open: ${pct(d.intraday_return_pct)}

Volume: ${num(d.volume)}

Outcome: ${d.outcome_label}

VIX mood previous day: ${d.vix_mood_prev_day}

`; const startDate = selectedEvent.start_date instanceof Date ? selectedEvent.start_date : new Date(selectedEvent.start_date); const endDate = selectedEvent.end_date instanceof Date ? selectedEvent.end_date : new Date(selectedEvent.end_date); const plot = Plot.plot({ title: "Event-window evidence: gap-ups during selected market event", subtitle: `${selectedEvent.short_label} — ${ selectedTicker === "ALL" ? "all tickers" : selectedTicker }`, width: 950, height: 540, marginLeft: 75, marginRight: 45, marginTop: 55, marginBottom: 90, x: { label: "Date", type: "utc", domain: [ startDate, d3.utcDay.offset(endDate, 1) ], grid: true, tickFormat: axisDate, ticks: d3.utcDay.every(1), tickRotate: -35 }, y: { label: "Overnight gap-up size", grid: true, tickFormat: d => `${d}%` }, color: { label: "Same-day return after open", type: "diverging", scheme: "RdYlGn", pivot: 0, domain: [-20, 20], legend: true }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0.4, strokeDasharray: "4,4" }), // Visible dots. // Larger radius makes them easier to hover directly. // The title stores hover_id so each SVG dot can be mapped back // to the correct data row. The native title is removed after render. Plot.dot(plotRows, { x: "date_obj", y: "gap_pct", fill: "intraday_return_pct", r: 6, fillOpacity: 0.72, stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 0.35, strokeOpacity: 0.35, title: "hover_id" }) ] }); document .querySelectorAll(".event-window-custom-tooltip") .forEach(el => el.remove()); const tooltip = html` `; document.body.appendChild(tooltip); function moveTooltip(event) { let x = event.clientX + 14; let y = event.clientY + 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; const bounds = tooltip.getBoundingClientRect(); if (bounds.right > window.innerWidth) { x = event.clientX - bounds.width - 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; } if (bounds.bottom > window.innerHeight) { y = event.clientY - bounds.height - 14; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; } } const dotGroup = plot.querySelector("g[aria-label='dot']"); const dots = dotGroup ? dotGroup.querySelectorAll("circle") : []; dots.forEach(dot => { const titleNode = dot.querySelector("title"); const hoverId = titleNode ? titleNode.textContent : null; // Remove native browser tooltip after reading the ID. if (titleNode) titleNode.remove(); const d = rowByHoverId.get(hoverId); if (!d) return; const originalStroke = dot.getAttribute("stroke"); const originalStrokeWidth = dot.getAttribute("stroke-width"); const originalStrokeOpacity = dot.getAttribute("stroke-opacity"); dot.style.cursor = "pointer"; dot.addEventListener("pointerenter", event => { dot.setAttribute("stroke", "black"); dot.setAttribute("stroke-width", "2.8"); dot.setAttribute("stroke-opacity", "1"); tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); tooltip.style.display = "block"; moveTooltip(event); }); dot.addEventListener("pointermove", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); moveTooltip(event); }); dot.addEventListener("pointerleave", () => { dot.setAttribute("stroke", originalStroke ?? "black"); dot.setAttribute("stroke-width", originalStrokeWidth ?? "0.35"); dot.setAttribute("stroke-opacity", originalStrokeOpacity ?? "0.35"); tooltip.style.display = "none"; }); }); invalidation.then(() => { tooltip.remove(); }); return plot; }34:T1375,viewof selectedEventIndex = { if (!sortedEvents.length) { return html`

No events available.

`; } const root = html`

`; const formatDate = d3.utcFormat("%b %d, %Y"); const formatMonth = d3.utcFormat("%b %Y"); const formatYear = d3.utcFormat("%Y"); const toDate = d => d instanceof Date ? d : new Date(d); const monthStart = d => new Date(Date.UTC(d.getUTCFullYear(), d.getUTCMonth(), 1)); const addMonths = (d, n) => new Date(Date.UTC(d.getUTCFullYear(), d.getUTCMonth() + n, 1)); const monthDiff = (a, b) => (b.getUTCFullYear() - a.getUTCFullYear()) * 12 + (b.getUTCMonth() - a.getUTCMonth()); const events = sortedEvents.map((d, i) => ({ ...d, index: i, start: toDate(d.start_date), end: toDate(d.end_date) })); const startTimes = events.map(d => +d.start); const minMonth = monthStart(events[0].start); const maxMonth = monthStart(events[events.length - 1].start); const maxMonthOffset = Math.max(0, monthDiff(minMonth, maxMonth)); const slider = html` `; const currentLabel = html`

`; const yearEndpoints = html`

Earliest: ${formatYear(minMonth)} Latest: ${formatYear(maxMonth)}

`; const label = html`

`; function closestEventIndexForMonth(monthOffset) { const selectedMonth = addMonths(minMonth, monthOffset); const nextMonth = addMonths(minMonth, monthOffset + 1); const monthStartTime = +selectedMonth; const nextMonthTime = +nextMonth; // Events that actually occur inside the selected month. const firstInMonth = d3.bisectLeft(startTimes, monthStartTime); const firstAfterMonth = d3.bisectLeft(startTimes, nextMonthTime); if (firstInMonth < firstAfterMonth) { return firstInMonth; } // If no event occurs in that month, use the nearest event to the middle of the month. const monthMidpoint = monthStartTime + (nextMonthTime - monthStartTime) / 2; const right = d3.bisectLeft(startTimes, monthMidpoint); const left = right - 1; if (left < 0) return 0; if (right >= events.length) return events.length - 1; return Math.abs(startTimes[left] - monthMidpoint) <= Math.abs(startTimes[right] - monthMidpoint) ? left : right; } let lastDispatchedIndex = null; let frame = null; function render() { const monthOffset = +slider.value; const selectedMonth = addMonths(minMonth, monthOffset); const i = closestEventIndexForMonth(monthOffset); const event = events[i]; const start = event.start; const end = event.end; const dateText = +start === +end ? formatDate(start) : `${formatDate(start)} – ${formatDate(end)}`; root.value = i; currentLabel.innerHTML = ` Selected month: ${formatMonth(selectedMonth)} | Closest event: ${event.short_label} `; label.innerHTML = `

Event ${i + 1} of ${events.length}

${event.short_label}

${dateText} · ${event.event_type}

${event.plain_english}

`; // Only trigger downstream Observable cells when the selected event changes. // This prevents heavy charts from recomputing on every tiny slider movement. if (i !== lastDispatchedIndex) { lastDispatchedIndex = i; root.dispatchEvent( new CustomEvent("input", { bubbles: true }) ); } } function scheduleRender() { if (frame !== null) return; frame = requestAnimationFrame(() => { frame = null; render(); }); } slider.addEventListener("input", scheduleRender); root.append( html`

Major market event timeline

`, currentLabel, slider, yearEndpoints, label ); render(); return root; }35:T84c,event2 = { const num = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "0" : v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const toDate = d => d instanceof Date ? d : new Date(d); const start = toDate(selectedEvent.start_date); const end = d3.utcDay.offset(toDate(selectedEvent.end_date), 1); const rows = scatterSample .filter(d => { const date = d.date_iso instanceof Date ? d.date_iso : new Date(d.date_iso); return ( date >= start && date < end && (selectedTicker === "ALL" || d.ticker === selectedTicker) ); }); const uniqueTickers = new Set(rows.map(d => d.ticker)).size; const topSectors = Array.from( d3.rollup( rows, values => values.length, d => d.sector ), ([sector, count]) => ({ sector, count }) ) .sort((a, b) => d3.descending(a.count, b.count)) .slice(0, 4) .map(d => `${d.sector} (${d.count})`) .join(", "); return html`

${selectedEvent.event_name}

${selectedEvent.start_date} to ${selectedEvent.end_date} · ${selectedEvent.event_type}

${selectedEvent.plain_english}

Why this window matters: ${selectedEvent.why_relevant}

Examples found in sampled gap-up data: ${num(rows.length)} observations across ${num(uniqueTickers)} tickers. ${ topSectors ? html`
Most common sectors: ${topSectors}` : "" }

`; }36:Tddf,event3 = { const num = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "0" : v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const pct = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : `${v.toFixed(2)}%`; const avgGap = eventRows.length ? d3.mean(eventRows, d => d.gap_pct) : NaN; const avgReturn = eventRows.length ? d3.mean(eventRows, d => d.intraday_return_pct) : NaN; const uniqueTickers = new Set(eventRows.map(d => d.ticker)).size; const continuationCount = eventRows.filter(d => d.intraday_return_pct > 0).length; const fadeCount = eventRows.filter(d => d.intraday_return_pct < 0).length; const unchangedCount = eventRows.filter(d => d.intraday_return_pct === 0).length; const evidenceWarning = eventRows.length < 10 ? html`

Small sample warning: This event window has only ${num(eventRows.length)} sampled observation${eventRows.length === 1 ? "" : "s"}. Treat this as an example view, not a broad statistical conclusion.

` : ""; return html`

How to read this event-window chart

This chart shows gap-up examples that occurred during the selected market event window: ${selectedEvent.short_label}. Each dot represents one stock on one trading day.

The x-axis shows the date within the event window.
The y-axis shows how large the overnight gap-up was. Higher dots opened much further above the previous close.
The color shows what happened after the opening bell: green means the stock kept rising, red means it fell after opening.
Hover over a dot to see the ticker, company, sector, gap size, same-day return, volume, outcome, and VIX market mood.

${num(eventRows.length)}
sampled observations

${num(uniqueTickers)}
unique tickers

${pct(avgGap)}
average overnight gap-up

${pct(avgReturn)}
average same-day return

${num(continuationCount)}
continued rising

${num(fadeCount)}
fell after opening

${evidenceWarning}

`; }37:T1101,tickerDropdown = (initialValue = "ALL") => { const allOption = { ticker: "ALL", name: "All S&P 500 stocks", sector: "", label: "All S&P 500 stocks", search: "all s&p 500 stocks all" }; const options = tickerOptions.some(d => d.ticker === "ALL") ? tickerOptions : [allOption, ...tickerOptions]; const root = html`

`; let currentValue = initialValue; const button = html` `; const panel = html` `; const search = html` `; const list = html`

`; panel.append(search, list); root.append(button, panel); function findOption(value) { return options.find(d => d.ticker === value) || allOption; } function optionLabel(option) { return option.label || `${option.ticker} — ${option.name}`; } function updateButton(option) { button.innerHTML = ` ${optionLabel(option)} ▾ `; } Object.defineProperty(root, "value", { get() { return currentValue; }, set(value) { currentValue = value ?? "ALL"; updateButton(findOption(currentValue)); } }); function setSelected(option) { root.value = option.ticker; panel.style.display = "none"; root.dispatchEvent(new Event("input", { bubbles: true })); } function renderOptions() { const q = search.value.trim().toLowerCase(); const matches = options .filter(d => { const searchable = d.search || `${d.ticker} ${d.name} ${d.sector}`.toLowerCase(); return !q || searchable.includes(q); }) .slice(0, 150); list.innerHTML = ""; for (const option of matches) { const row = html` `; row.addEventListener("click", () => setSelected(option)); list.append(row); } if (matches.length === 0) { list.append(html`

No matching companies found.

`); } } button.addEventListener("click", () => { panel.style.display = panel.style.display === "none" ? "block" : "none"; search.value = ""; search.focus(); renderOptions(); }); search.addEventListener("input", renderOptions); document.addEventListener("click", event => { if (!root.contains(event.target)) { panel.style.display = "none"; } }); root.value = initialValue; renderOptions(); return root; }38:T567,tickerOptions = { const normalizeTicker = t => String(t).trim().toUpperCase().replace(".", "-"); const getField = (d, names) => names.map(name => d[name]).find(value => value != null && String(value).trim() !== ""); const companyByTicker = new Map( sp500Companies.map(d => { const symbol = getField(d, ["Symbol", "Ticker", "ticker", "symbol"]); const name = getField(d, ["Name", "Security", "Company", "Company Name"]); const sector = getField(d, ["Sector", "GICS Sector", "gics_sector"]); return [ normalizeTicker(symbol), { name, sector } ]; }) ); const tickers = Array.from( new Set(bucketSummary.map(d => d.ticker).filter(d => d !== "ALL")) ).sort(); return [ { ticker: "ALL", name: "All S&P 500 stocks", sector: "Market-wide summary", label: "All S&P 500 stocks", search: "all s&p 500 stocks market summary" }, ...tickers.map(ticker => { const info = companyByTicker.get(normalizeTicker(ticker)); return { ticker, name: info?.name ?? "Company name unavailable", sector: info?.sector ?? "", label: info?.name ? `${info.name} (${ticker})` : `${ticker}`, search: `${ticker} ${info?.name ?? ""} ${info?.sector ?? ""}`.toLowerCase() }; }) ]; }39:T153b,gap_up_fill = { const pct = v => `${(v * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; const num = v => v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const bucketOrder = ["<1%", "1–2%", "2–4%", "4–6%", ">6%"]; const wmean = (rows, col) => { const total = d3.sum(rows, d => d.observations); return total ? d3.sum(rows, d => d[col] * d.observations) / total : 0; }; const tickerBuckets = Array.from( d3.rollup( bucketSummary.filter(d => d.ticker === selectedTicker), rows => ({ ticker: selectedTicker, gap_bucket: rows[0].gap_bucket, observations: d3.sum(rows, d => d.observations), full_gap_fill_rate: wmean(rows, "full_gap_fill_rate"), continuation_rate: wmean(rows, "continuation_rate"), fade_rate: wmean(rows, "fade_rate") }), d => d.gap_bucket ), ([gap_bucket, values]) => values ) .sort((a, b) => bucketOrder.indexOf(a.gap_bucket) - bucketOrder.indexOf(b.gap_bucket)); const tooltipHTML = d => `

${d.ticker} · ${d.gap_bucket} gap-up

Ticker: ${d.ticker}

Gap-up bucket: ${d.gap_bucket}

Historical examples: ${num(d.observations)}

Full gap-fill rate: ${pct(d.full_gap_fill_rate)}

Continuation rate: ${pct(d.continuation_rate)}

Fade rate: ${pct(d.fade_rate)}

`; const plot = Plot.plot({ title: "How often do opening gap-ups fully fill?", subtitle: `${selectedTicker} — gap-up size only; this chart does not include gap-downs`, width: 660, height: 220, marginLeft: 70, marginRight: 35, marginTop: 45, marginBottom: 60, x: { label: "Size of overnight gap-up", domain: bucketOrder }, y: { label: "Full gap-fill rate within gap-up bucket", grid: true, domain: [0, 1], tickFormat: d => `${Math.round(d * 100)}%` }, color: { label: "Full gap-fill rate", scheme: "YlOrRd", domain: [0, 1], legend: true, tickFormat: d => `${Math.round(d * 100)}%` }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0.5], { stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0.35, strokeDasharray: "4,4" }), Plot.text([{gap_bucket: ">6%", y: 0.5, label: "50% reference"}], { x: "gap_bucket", y: "y", text: "label", dx: 35, dy: -6, fontSize: 11, fill: "black", fillOpacity: 0.65 }), Plot.barY(tickerBuckets, { x: "gap_bucket", y: "full_gap_fill_rate", fill: "full_gap_fill_rate", stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0.25 }), Plot.text(tickerBuckets, { x: "gap_bucket", y: d => d.full_gap_fill_rate / 2, text: d => pct(d.full_gap_fill_rate), textAnchor: "middle", fill: d => d.full_gap_fill_rate >= 0.55 ? "white" : "#222", fontSize: 15, fontWeight: "bold" }), // Invisible hover layer. // This sits above the bar labels, so hovering the percentage text // still triggers the tooltip. Plot.barY(tickerBuckets, { x: "gap_bucket", y: "full_gap_fill_rate", fill: "white", fillOpacity: 0.001, stroke: "none" }) ] }); const container = html`

Select one ticker to view candlesticks.

A candlestick chart works best for one company at a time. Showing all 500+ S&P 500 stocks together would be too cluttered to read.

`; } const sourceRows = candlestickDays .filter(d => d.ticker === selectedTicker) .filter(d => d.prev_close > 0 && d.open > 0 && d.high > 0 && d.low > 0 && d.close > 0 ) .sort((a, b) => d3.ascending(a.date_iso, b.date_iso)); const candles = sourceRows.map(d => { const open_rel = 100 * d.open / d.prev_close; const high_rel = 100 * d.high / d.prev_close; const low_rel = 100 * d.low / d.prev_close; const close_rel = 100 * d.close / d.prev_close; const direction = d.close > d.open ? "Finished higher after open" : d.close < d.open ? "Finished lower after open" : "Finished unchanged after open"; return { ...d, date_text: dateText(d.date_iso), open_rel, high_rel, low_rel, close_rel, body_low: Math.min(open_rel, close_rel), body_high: Math.max(open_rel, close_rel), direction }; }); if (candles.length === 0) { return html`

No candlestick examples found for ${selectedTicker}.

`; } const yMin = Math.floor((d3.min(candles, d => d.low_rel) - 5) / 5) * 5; const yMax = Math.ceil((d3.max(candles, d => d.high_rel) + 5) / 5) * 5; const tooltipHTML = d => `

${d.ticker} · ${d.date_text}

Date: ${d.date_text}

Ticker: ${d.ticker}

Previous close: ${price(d.prev_close)}

Open: ${price(d.open)}

High: ${price(d.high)}

Low: ${price(d.low)}

Close: ${price(d.close)}

Overnight gap: ${pct(d.gap_pct)}

Same-day return after open: ${pct(d.intraday_return_pct)}

Volume: ${num(d.volume)}

Outcome: ${d.direction}

Full gap filled: ${d.full_gap_fill_flag ? "Yes" : "No"}

`; const plot = Plot.plot({ title: "Candlestick view: did the stock finish higher after opening?", subtitle: `${selectedTicker} — selected historical gap-up days, shown chronologically`, width: 575, height: 320, marginLeft: 80, marginRight: 90, marginTop: 55, marginBottom: 85, x: { label: "Date", type: "band", domain: candles.map(d => d.date_text), tickFormat: d => { const date = new Date(d); return d3.utcFormat("%b %Y")(date); // e.g. "Jan 2025" }, tickRotate: -35 }, y: { label: "Price move relative to previous close", domain: [yMin, yMax], grid: true, tickFormat: d => `${d >= 100 ? "+" : ""}${(d - 100).toFixed(0)}%` }, color: { legend: true, domain: [ "Finished higher after open", "Finished lower after open", "Finished unchanged after open" ], range: [ "#2ca25f", "#de2d26", "#777777" ] }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([100], { stroke: "black", strokeOpacity: 0.45, strokeDasharray: "4,4" }), Plot.text( [{ date_text: candles[Math.floor(candles.length * 0.7)].date_text, y: 100, label: "Previous close / 0%" }], { x: "date_text", y: "y", text: "label", dy: -8, fontSize: 11, fill: "black", fillOpacity: 0.7 } ), Plot.ruleX(candles, { x: "date_text", y1: "low_rel", y2: "high_rel", stroke: "direction", strokeWidth: 1.8 }), Plot.barY(candles, { x: "date_text", y1: "body_low", y2: "body_high", fill: "direction", fillOpacity: 0.9, stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 0.7, insetLeft: 7, insetRight: 7 }), Plot.dot( candles, Plot.pointerX({ x: "date_text", y: "close_rel", r: 4, fill: "none", stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 2 }) ), // Invisible hover bands so the tooltip is easy to trigger. Plot.barY(candles, { x: "date_text", y1: yMin, y2: yMax, fill: "white", fillOpacity: 0.001, insetLeft: 0, insetRight: 0 }) ] }); const container = html`

`; const tooltip = html` `; container.append(plot, tooltip); function moveTooltip(event) { const bounds = container.getBoundingClientRect(); let x = event.clientX - bounds.left + 14; let y = event.clientY - bounds.top + 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; const tooltipBounds = tooltip.getBoundingClientRect(); if (tooltipBounds.right > bounds.right) { x = event.clientX - bounds.left - tooltipBounds.width - 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; } if (tooltipBounds.bottom > bounds.bottom) { y = event.clientY - bounds.top - tooltipBounds.height - 14; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; } } const barGroups = plot.querySelectorAll("g[aria-label='bar']"); const hoverGroup = barGroups[barGroups.length - 1]; const hoverRects = hoverGroup ? hoverGroup.querySelectorAll("rect") : []; hoverRects.forEach((rect, i) => { const d = candles[i]; rect.style.cursor = "pointer"; rect.addEventListener("pointerenter", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); tooltip.style.display = "block"; moveTooltip(event); }); rect.addEventListener("pointermove", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); moveTooltip(event); }); rect.addEventListener("pointerleave", () => { tooltip.style.display = "none"; }); }); return container; }3b:T1b9d,trading_volume = { const activeTicker = selectedTicker; const gapOrder = ["<1%", "1–2%", "2–4%", "4–6%", ">6%"]; const volumeOrder = [ "Extremely busy", "Busier than usual", "Typical activity", "Quieter than usual" ]; const volumeLabel = bucket => { const b = String(bucket); if (b.startsWith("<0.75")) return "Quieter than usual"; if (b.startsWith("0.75")) return "Typical activity"; if (b.startsWith("1.25")) return "Busier than usual"; if (b.startsWith(">2")) return "Extremely busy"; return b; }; const pctRate = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : `${(v * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; const pctMove = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : `${v.toFixed(2)}%`; const num = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const wmean = (rows, col) => { const total = d3.sum(rows, d => d.observations); return total ? d3.sum(rows, d => d[col] * d.observations) / total : NaN; }; const rawRows = volumeHeatmap.filter(d => d.ticker === activeTicker); const rolled = Array.from( d3.rollup( rawRows, rows => ({ ticker: activeTicker, gap_bucket: rows[0].gap_bucket, relative_volume_bucket: rows[0].relative_volume_bucket, relative_volume_label: volumeLabel(rows[0].relative_volume_bucket), observations: d3.sum(rows, d => d.observations), mean_intraday_return_pct: wmean(rows, "mean_intraday_return_pct"), median_intraday_return_pct: wmean(rows, "median_intraday_return_pct"), continuation_rate: wmean(rows, "continuation_rate"), fade_rate: wmean(rows, "fade_rate"), full_gap_fill_rate: wmean(rows, "full_gap_fill_rate") }), d => d.gap_bucket, d => volumeLabel(d.relative_volume_bucket) ), ([gap_bucket, volumeMap]) => Array.from(volumeMap, ([relative_volume_label, values]) => values) ).flat(); const lookup = new Map( rolled.map(d => [`${d.gap_bucket}|${d.relative_volume_label}`, d]) ); const heatmapCells = volumeOrder.flatMap(volume => gapOrder.map(gap => lookup.get(`${gap}|${volume}`) ?? { ticker: activeTicker, gap_bucket: gap, relative_volume_label: volume, observations: 0, fade_rate: NaN, continuation_rate: NaN, full_gap_fill_rate: NaN, mean_intraday_return_pct: NaN } ) ); const tooltipHTML = d => `

${d.ticker} · ${d.gap_bucket} gap-up

Ticker: ${d.ticker}

Gap bucket: ${d.gap_bucket}

Trading activity: ${d.relative_volume_label}

Historical examples: ${num(d.observations)}

Fade rate: ${pctRate(d.fade_rate)}

Continuation rate: ${pctRate(d.continuation_rate)}

Full gap-fill rate: ${pctRate(d.full_gap_fill_rate)}

Average same-day return: ${pctMove(d.mean_intraday_return_pct)}

`; const plot = Plot.plot({ title: "Does trading volume change what happens after a gap-up?", subtitle: `${activeTicker} — cell color shows fade rate by gap size and trading activity`, width: 850, height: 430, marginLeft: 170, marginBottom: 90, marginTop: 45, x: { label: "Size of overnight gap-up", domain: gapOrder }, y: { label: "Trading activity compared with normal", domain: volumeOrder }, color: { label: "Fade rate", scheme: "YlOrRd", domain: [0.35, 0.65], clamp: true, legend: true, tickFormat: d => `${Math.round(d * 100)}%` }, style: { fontSize: "15px" }, marks: [ Plot.cell(heatmapCells, { x: "gap_bucket", y: "relative_volume_label", fill: "#f2f2f2", stroke: "white", strokeWidth: 2, inset: 1 }), Plot.cell(heatmapCells.filter(d => d.observations > 0), { x: "gap_bucket", y: "relative_volume_label", fill: "fade_rate", stroke: "white", strokeWidth: 2, inset: 1 }), Plot.text(heatmapCells, { x: "gap_bucket", y: "relative_volume_label", text: d => d.observations > 0 ? `${Math.round(d.fade_rate * 100)}%` : "n/a", fill: d => d.observations > 0 && d.fade_rate >= 0.56 ? "white" : "black", fontSize: 20, fontWeight: "bold" }), // Invisible hover layer. // This does not visually change the graph size. Plot.cell(heatmapCells, { x: "gap_bucket", y: "relative_volume_label", fill: "white", fillOpacity: 0.001, stroke: "none", inset: 1 }) ] }); document .querySelectorAll(".trading-volume-custom-tooltip") .forEach(el => el.remove()); const tooltip = html` `; document.body.appendChild(tooltip); function moveTooltip(event) { let x = event.clientX + 14; let y = event.clientY + 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; const bounds = tooltip.getBoundingClientRect(); if (bounds.right > window.innerWidth) { x = event.clientX - bounds.width - 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; } if (bounds.bottom > window.innerHeight) { y = event.clientY - bounds.height - 14; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; } } const cellGroups = plot.querySelectorAll("g[aria-label='cell']"); const hoverGroup = cellGroups[cellGroups.length - 1]; const hoverRects = hoverGroup ? hoverGroup.querySelectorAll("rect") : []; hoverRects.forEach((rect, i) => { const d = heatmapCells[i]; rect.style.cursor = "pointer"; rect.addEventListener("pointerenter", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); tooltip.style.display = "block"; moveTooltip(event); }); rect.addEventListener("pointermove", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); moveTooltip(event); }); rect.addEventListener("pointerleave", () => { tooltip.style.display = "none"; }); }); invalidation.then(() => { tooltip.remove(); }); return plot; }3c:T1834,individual_gap_ups = { const pct = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : `${v.toFixed(2)}%`; const num = v => v == null || Number.isNaN(v) ? "n/a" : v.toLocaleString("en-US"); const dateText = d => d instanceof Date ? d3.utcFormat("%Y-%m-%d")(d) : d; const pointRadius = 6; const filtered = selectedTicker === "ALL" ? scatterSample : scatterSample.filter(d => d.ticker === selectedTicker); if (filtered.length === 0) { return html`

No individual gap-up examples found.

Try selecting another ticker.

`; } const plotRows = filtered.map((d, i) => ({ ...d, hover_id: `individual-gap-${i}` })); const rowByHoverId = new Map( plotRows.map(d => [d.hover_id, d]) ); const yMin = Math.min( -30, Math.floor((d3.min(plotRows, d => d.intraday_return_pct) - 5) / 5) * 5 ); const yMax = Math.max( 60, Math.ceil((d3.max(plotRows, d => d.intraday_return_pct) + 18) / 5) * 5 ); const tooltipHTML = d => `

${d.ticker} · ${dateText(d.date_iso)}

Date: ${dateText(d.date_iso)}

Ticker: ${d.ticker}

Company: ${d.company_name}

Sector: ${d.sector}

Overnight gap: ${pct(d.gap_pct)}

Same-day return: ${pct(d.intraday_return_pct)}

Volume: ${num(d.volume)}

Outcome: ${d.outcome_label}

`; const plot = Plot.plot({ title: "Raw evidence: individual trading-day gap-ups", subtitle: `${selectedTicker} — each dot is one stock on one trading day`, style: { backgroundColor: "white", fontSize: "15px" }, width: 900, height: 620, marginTop: 45, marginLeft: 75, marginRight: 35, marginBottom: 70, x: { label: "Overnight gap-up size →", grid: true, tickFormat: d => `${d}%` }, y: { label: "Same-day return after opening bell ↑", grid: true, domain: [yMin, yMax], tickFormat: d => `${d}%` }, color: { label: "Same-day return after open", type: "diverging", scheme: "RdYlGn", pivot: 0, domain: [-20, 20], legend: true }, marks: [ Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 1.4, strokeDasharray: "4,4" }), // Visible dots only. // No Plot.pointer and no invisible hover layer, so the hover behavior // only triggers when the cursor is directly over a dot. Plot.dot(plotRows, { x: "gap_pct", y: "intraday_return_pct", fill: "intraday_return_pct", r: pointRadius, stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 0.8, strokeOpacity: 0.9, fillOpacity: 0.88, title: "hover_id" }) ] }); document .querySelectorAll(".individual-gap-ups-custom-tooltip") .forEach(el => el.remove()); const tooltip = html` `; document.body.appendChild(tooltip); function moveTooltip(event) { let x = event.clientX + 14; let y = event.clientY + 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; const bounds = tooltip.getBoundingClientRect(); if (bounds.right > window.innerWidth) { x = event.clientX - bounds.width - 14; tooltip.style.left = `${x}px`; } if (bounds.bottom > window.innerHeight) { y = event.clientY - bounds.height - 14; tooltip.style.top = `${y}px`; } } const dotGroup = plot.querySelector("g[aria-label='dot']"); const dots = dotGroup ? dotGroup.querySelectorAll("circle") : []; dots.forEach(dot => { const titleNode = dot.querySelector("title"); const hoverId = titleNode ? titleNode.textContent : null; // Remove native browser tooltip after reading the ID. if (titleNode) titleNode.remove(); const d = rowByHoverId.get(hoverId); if (!d) return; const originalStroke = dot.getAttribute("stroke"); const originalStrokeWidth = dot.getAttribute("stroke-width"); const originalStrokeOpacity = dot.getAttribute("stroke-opacity"); const originalFillOpacity = dot.getAttribute("fill-opacity"); dot.style.cursor = "pointer"; dot.addEventListener("pointerenter", event => { dot.setAttribute("stroke", "black"); dot.setAttribute("stroke-width", "2.8"); dot.setAttribute("stroke-opacity", "1"); dot.setAttribute("fill-opacity", "1"); tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); tooltip.style.display = "block"; moveTooltip(event); }); dot.addEventListener("pointermove", event => { tooltip.innerHTML = tooltipHTML(d); moveTooltip(event); }); dot.addEventListener("pointerleave", () => { dot.setAttribute("stroke", originalStroke ?? 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"0.88"); tooltip.style.display = "none"; }); }); invalidation.then(() => { tooltip.remove(); }); return plot; 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\nDo Stocks Keep Rising After a Big Gap-Up?\n
An interactive investigation of momentum and reversal after the opening bell\n
\n

\n`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1651,"value":"\n
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1641,"value":"title1 = md`\n
\nHow this tool works:
\n\n
\n`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1557,"value":"headerr1 = md`\n
\nThis dashboard contains data from all 503 S&P 500 stocks over the past 10 years, and the charts below focus on gap-ups. The tool is designed to allow users to explore when gap-ups happen and what happens to stocks after they occur. To use this tool, select a stock, or the entire S&P 500 (Candlestick view will not be available) and view the charts. Scroll to choose an explanation of a graph, or view the original data tables\n
\n`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1002,"value":"### Technical terms:","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"header2","database":"$undefined"},{"id":992,"value":"\n
\n **Gap-up **is when a stock's opening price is higher than its closing price the day before.\n
","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"def1","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1176,"value":"**Fill** is when a stock returns to its previous closing price after gapping up overnight","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"def2","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1266,"value":"
\n **Continue** is when a stock continues rising throughout the day \n
","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"def4","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1696,"value":"
\n **Continuation rate** is how often a stock continues rising throughout the day\n
","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"def5","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1264,"value":"**Fade** is when a stock falls after opening","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"def3","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1460,"value":"**Fade Rate** is how often a stock fell after opening higher","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"explain7","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1329,"value":"### Choose a stock:","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"header3","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1256,"value":"viewof selectedTicker = tickerDropdown(\"ALL\")\n\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":871,"value":"\n ${gap_up_fill}\n ${candlestick}\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"view1","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1657,"value":"
\n ${explain1}\n ${explain2}\n
","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"view5","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1296,"value":"\n
\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"line3","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1260,"value":"tickerSelectorClone1 = Inputs.bind(\n tickerDropdown(),\n viewof selectedTicker\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":251,"value":"viewof horizonMaxRows = Inputs.range([20, 100], {\n label: \"Number of stock rows:\",\n value: 40,\n step: 5\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":247,"value":"viewof horizonSector = Inputs.select(\n [\n \"All sectors\",\n ...Array.from(new Set(horizonGapupWall.map(d => d.sector))).sort()\n ],\n {\n label: \"Sector filter\",\n value: \"All sectors\"\n }\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":249,"value":"viewof horizonTimeMode = Inputs.radio(\n [\"Full available period\", \"Selected market event only\"],\n {\n label: \"Time filter\",\n value: \"Full available period\"\n }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":257,"value":"$32","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":260,"value":"\n\n
\nHow to read this chart:
\nEach row represents one stock. Time moves from left to right.
\n\nEach dot is a sampled historical gap-up day for that stock. The dot’s position within the row shows what happened after the opening bell:
\n\n- Dots above the center line mean the stock **continued rising after the open**.
\n- Dots below the center line mean the stock **fell after the open**.
\n- Greener dots are stronger same-day gains.
\n- Redder dots are stronger same-day losses.
\n- Larger dots represent larger absolute same-day moves.
\n\nUse the sector filter, ticker dropdown, and event filter to narrow the wall. This view is meant to be a memorable overview of many stocks at once, not a precise replacement for the individual scatterplot or summary charts.\n
\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"explanation","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1589,"value":"\n
\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"line2","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1300,"value":"tickerSelectorClone = Inputs.bind(\n tickerDropdown(),\n viewof selectedTicker\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":875,"value":"
\n ${trading_volume}\n ${individual_gap_ups}\n
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"view2","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1722,"value":"
\n ${explain5}\n ${explain6}\n
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"view4","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1593,"value":"\n
\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"line1","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1159,"value":"## Historical Timeline:","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"header4","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1161,"value":"How did major historical and economic events effect the stock market?","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"body2","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1495,"value":"tickerSelectorClone2 = Inputs.bind(\n tickerDropdown(),\n viewof selectedTicker\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":231,"value":"$33","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":220,"value":"$34","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":225,"value":"$35","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":242,"value":"$36","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1169,"value":"# End of User Interactive Elements","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":245,"value":"horizonGapupWall = {\n const parseDate = d3.utcParse(\"%Y-%m-%d\");\n\n const rows = await FileAttachment(\"horizon_gapup_wall.csv\").csv({typed: true});\n\n return rows.map(d => ({\n ...d,\n date_obj: d.date instanceof Date ? d.date : parseDate(d.date)\n }));\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":175,"value":"**Note:** This chart only shows **gap-ups**, meaning days when a stock opened above its previous closing price. \nThe current summary CSV does not include gap-downs. To compare gap-ups and gap-downs, we would need a signed gap dataset where positive values are gap-ups and negative values are gap-downs.","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":120,"value":"ticker = selectedTicker\n\n\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":98,"value":"$37","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":132,"value":"scatterSample = FileAttachment(\"scatterplot_sample.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":137,"value":"This scatterplot uses **${scatterSample.length.toLocaleString()} individual historical trading-day observations**.\n\nEach dot represents one stock on one trading day. \nThis is a sampled raw-evidence file, not the full master dataset.\n`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"
**How to read this chart:** \nEach dot is one historical stock-day where the stock opened above its previous closing price.
\n\n- Dots **above the zero line** continued rising after the market opened.
\n- Dots **below the zero line** faded after the market opened.
\n- Greener dots are stronger same-day gains after the open.
\n- Redder dots are stronger same-day losses after the open.
\n- The vertical dashed lines mark the same gap-size buckets used in the summary charts: **1%, 2%, 4%, and 6%**.
\n- Hover over a dot to see the date, ticker, company, gap size, same-day return, volume, and outcome.\n
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"explain6","database":"$undefined"},{"id":164,"value":"volumeHeatmap = FileAttachment(\"volume_heatmap_summary.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":166,"value":"
**How to read this heatmap:** \nThis chart asks whether a gap-up behaves differently when trading volume is unusual.
\n\n- The horizontal axis shows the size of the overnight gap-up.
\n- The vertical axis shows whether trading activity was quieter, typical, busier, or extremely busy compared with normal.
\n- Each cell shows the **fade rate**: how often the stock fell after opening higher.
\n- Darker cells mean the gap-up was more likely to fade during the trading day.
\n- Hover over a cell to see the sample size, fade rate, continuation rate, full gap-fill rate, and average same-day return.
\n\nCells with small sample sizes should be interpreted cautiously.\n
","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"explain5","database":"$undefined"},{"id":68,"value":"bucketSummary =\n FileAttachment(\"bucket_summary.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":70,"value":"bucketSummary","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":72,"value":"overallBuckets =\n bucketSummary.filter(d => d.ticker === \"ALL\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":93,"value":"sp500Companies = d3.csv(\n \"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/datasets/s-and-p-500-companies/master/data/constituents.csv\",\n d3.autoType\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":95,"value":"$38","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":269,"value":"viewof data_tables = Inputs.select([largest_gap_days1, volume_heatmap_summary1, vix_regime_summary1, sp500_ticker_metadata1], {label: \"Data Tables\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":274,"value":"data_tables\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":185,"value":"stockClusterFeatures = FileAttachment(\"stock_cluster_features.csv\").csv({typed: true})\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":190,"value":"stockClusterSummary = FileAttachment(\"stock_cluster_summary.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":192,"value":"eventsTimeline = FileAttachment(\"events_timeline.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1663,"value":"### How to read this chart:\n- Each mini box plot represents one stock on one day and shows the open, high, low, and close values for the stock\n- If the plot is green the stock finished higher after the open, if the plot is red the stock finished lower, and if the plot is grey the stock finished exactly as it opened\n- All stocks shown are on historically high gap-up days","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"explain2","database":"$undefined"},{"id":218,"value":"sortedEvents = {\n const toDate = d =>\n d instanceof Date\n ? d\n : new Date(d);\n\n return eventsTimeline\n .slice()\n .sort((a, b) => d3.ascending(toDate(a.start_date), toDate(b.start_date)));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":115,"value":"candlestickDays = FileAttachment(\"largest_gap_days.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":178,"value":"viewof candlestickMode = Inputs.radio(\n [\"Largest gap-up examples\", \"Most recent gap-up examples\"],\n {\n label: \"Candlestick sample\",\n value: \"Largest gap-up examples\"\n }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":74,"value":"$39","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":180,"value":"$3a","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":162,"value":"$3b","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":141,"value":"$3c","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":223,"value":"selectedEvent = sortedEvents[selectedEventIndex]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":229,"value":"eventRows = {\n const toDate = d =>\n d instanceof Date\n ? d\n : new Date(d);\n\n const start = toDate(selectedEvent.start_date);\n const end = d3.utcDay.offset(toDate(selectedEvent.end_date), 1);\n\n return scatterSample\n .map(d => ({\n ...d,\n date_obj:\n d.date_iso instanceof Date\n ? d.date_iso\n : new Date(d.date_iso)\n }))\n .filter(d =>\n d.date_obj >= start &&\n d.date_obj < end &&\n (selectedTicker === \"ALL\" || d.ticker === selectedTicker)\n )\n .sort((a, b) => d3.ascending(a.date_obj, b.date_obj));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1287,"value":"import { largest_gap_days1, volume_heatmap_summary1, vix_regime_summary1, sp500_ticker_metadata1, bucket_summary } from \"@dis-2026-summer/tables\"\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1659,"value":"### How to read this chart:\n- Size of overnight gap up means how much higher the stock opened compared to the previous day's close\n- Full gap-fill rate means how many gapped-up stocks returned fully to their closing prices throughout the day\n- Example: 77.8% of stocks that opened less than 1% higher than their previous close fully filled to their closing price on the day of the gap-up","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"explain1","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W3d","stdlib":"1"}} 31:"$30:body"