29:null 2a:["$","title",null,{"children":"How Montana's 2014-2023 legislative map has shaped Montana House elections | Eric Dietrich | Observable"}] 2f:T618,{ const districts = historicData const singlePartyControlDistricts = districts.filter(d => d.legislativeWins.R === 4 || d.legislativeWins.D === 4) const demControlDistricts = districts.filter(d => d.legislativeWins.D === 4) const gopControlDistricts = districts.filter(d => d.legislativeWins.R === 4) const multiPartyControlDistricts = districts.filter(d => d.legislativeWins.R >= 1 && d.legislativeWins.D >= 1) const meetCompetitivenessStandard = districts.filter(d => d.statewideWins.R >= 3 && d.statewideWins.D >= 3) const tooGOPToBeCompetitive = districts.filter(d => d.statewideWins.D < 3) const tooDemToBeCompetitive = districts.filter(d => d.statewideWins.R < 3) return md` ### Narrative analysis Of 100 House Districts, **${singlePartyControlDistricts.length}** have been held by a single party in elections since the current map was adopted in 2014. **${gopControlDistricts.length}** of those by Republicans, **${demControlDistricts.length}** by Democrats. **${multiPartyControlDistricts.length}** districts have shifted between parties. Looking at the 10 districting-commission-selected statewide races in the last four cycles, **${meetCompetitivenessStandard.length}** of those districts have been won by statewide candidates from both parties at least three times, meeting the competitiveness metric the commission has adopted for evaluating new maps. **${tooGOPToBeCompetitive.length}** districts have leaned too R and **${tooDemToBeCompetitive.length}** districts have leaned too D to be classified as competitive. ` }30:Tea6,embed2 = { const years = ['2014','2016','2018','2020'] const parties = ['R','D','L'] const districts = historicData const output = ` ${ years.map(year => { const races = districts.map(d => d.legislativeElections).flat().filter(d => d.year === year) const partyVotes = { 'R': 0, 'D': 0, 'L': 0, 'I': 0, 'C': 0, } let totalVotes = 0 const partyVotesContested = { 'R': 0, 'D': 0, 'L': 0, 'I': 0, 'C': 0, } let totalVotesContested = 0 const partyDistricts = { 'R': 0, 'D': 0, 'L': 0, 'I': 0, 'C': 0, } let totalDistricts = 0 races.forEach(race => { partyDistricts[race.winnerParty] += 1 totalDistricts += 1 race.candidates.forEach(candidate => { partyVotes[candidate.party] += candidate.votes totalVotes += candidate.votes }) if (race.candidates.length > 1) { race.candidates.forEach(candidate => { partyVotesContested[candidate.party] += candidate.votes totalVotesContested += candidate.votes }) } }) const f = d => Math.round(d*100) const margins = { all: { 'R': partyVotes.R / totalVotes, 'D': partyVotes.D / totalVotes, }, contested: { 'R': partyVotesContested.R / totalVotesContested, 'D': partyVotesContested.D / totalVotesContested, }, districts: { 'R': partyDistricts.R, 'D': partyDistricts.D, } } return `` }).join('') }

Election Year	Total House race vote (R%-D%)	House seats won (R-D, of 100)
${year}	${f(margins.all.R)}%-${f(margins.all.D)}%	${margins.districts.R}-${margins.districts.D}
2022	To be determined	To be determined

` return html`

The current map's high-level lean

Under the state's current legislative map, Republicans have consistently outperformed their aggregate vote share with wins in district-level Montana House races.

${output}

Note: A small fraction of votes went to third-party or independent candidates. Data: Montana Legislature, Montana Secretary of State. Analysis: Eric Dietrich / MTFP

` }31:T13cf,embedStrandedVoter = { // let electionYear = '2020' const voterBuckets = { 'demDistricts': { 'demVotes': 0, 'repVotes': 0, 'otherVotes': 0, 'totalVotes': 0, }, 'swingDistricts': { 'demVotes': 0, 'repVotes': 0, 'otherVotes': 0, 'totalVotes': 0, }, 'gopDistricts': { 'demVotes': 0, 'repVotes': 0, 'otherVotes': 0, 'totalVotes': 0, } } historicData.forEach(district => { let districtCat = 'swingDistricts' if (district.legislativeWins.R === 0) districtCat = 'demDistricts' if (district.legislativeWins.D === 0) districtCat = 'gopDistricts' const legElection2020Candidates = district.legislativeElections.find(d => d.year === electionYear).candidates voterBuckets[districtCat].demVotes += d3.sum(legElection2020Candidates.filter(d => d.party === 'D'), d => d.votes) voterBuckets[districtCat].repVotes += d3.sum(legElection2020Candidates.filter(d => d.party === 'R'), d => d.votes) voterBuckets[districtCat].otherVotes += d3.sum(legElection2020Candidates.filter(d => !['D','R'].includes(d.party)), d => d.votes) voterBuckets[districtCat].totalVotes += d3.sum(legElection2020Candidates, d => d.votes) }) const totalVotes = voterBuckets.demDistricts.totalVotes + voterBuckets.swingDistricts.totalVotes + voterBuckets.gopDistricts.totalVotes // return voterBuckets const plotWidth = 600 const scale = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, 300000]) .range([0,500]) const f = d3.format(',.0f') const plot = `` return html`

Montana's stranded voters

Relatively few Montana voters live in swing districts. Additionally, tens of thousands have voted for House candidates from a party that has never won their district under the current legislative map.

${viewof electionYear}

${plot}

Data: Montana Secretary of State. Analysis: Eric Dietrich / MTFP

` }32:T1518,strandedVoterAnalysis2 = { return null // const electionYear = '2020' // const totalVotes = // voterBuckets.demDistricts.totalVotes + // voterBuckets.swingDistricts.totalVotes + // voterBuckets.gopDistricts.totalVotes // // return voterBuckets const scale = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, 300000]) .range([0,100]) const f = d3.format(',.0f') const plot = (year) => { const voterBuckets = { 'demDistricts': { 'demVotes': 0, 'repVotes': 0, 'otherVotes': 0, 'totalVotes': 0, }, 'swingDistricts': { 'demVotes': 0, 'repVotes': 0, 'otherVotes': 0, 'totalVotes': 0, }, 'gopDistricts': { 'demVotes': 0, 'repVotes': 0, 'otherVotes': 0, 'totalVotes': 0, } } historicData.forEach(district => { let districtCat = 'swingDistricts' if (district.legislativeWins.R === 0) districtCat = 'demDistricts' if (district.legislativeWins.D === 0) districtCat = 'gopDistricts' const legElectionCandidates = district.legislativeElections.find(d => d.year === year).candidates voterBuckets[districtCat].demVotes += d3.sum(legElectionCandidates.filter(d => d.party === 'D'), d => d.votes) voterBuckets[districtCat].repVotes += d3.sum(legElectionCandidates.filter(d => d.party === 'R'), d => d.votes) voterBuckets[districtCat].otherVotes += d3.sum(legElectionCandidates.filter(d => !['D','R'].includes(d.party)), d => d.votes) voterBuckets[districtCat].totalVotes += d3.sum(legElectionCandidates, d => d.votes) }) return `

` } return html`

Montana's stranded voters

Relatively few Montana voters live in swing districts. Additionally, tens of thousands voted in ${electionYear} for House candidates from a party that has never won their district under the current legislative map.

${['2014','2016','2018','2020'].map(year => plot(year))}

Data: Montana Secretary of State. Analysis: Eric Dietrich / MTFP

` }33:Tcb7,legend = () => html``34:Ta2c,montanaMap = () => map({ width: 800, height: 800, margin: {top: 10, left: 10, right: 10, bottom: 10}, projection: d3.geoAlbers().rotate([111, 0, 0]), tooltipEnabled: true, layers: [ // new FeatureLayer({ // geodata: bbox, // geojson // featureStyle: { // fill: d => 'none', // stroke: d => 'none', // strokeWidth: d => 1, // } // }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: renderedDims.regionalBoxes, // geojson featureStyle: { fill: d => 'none', stroke: d => '#222', strokeWidth: d => 0.5, } }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: counties, // geojson featureStyle: { fill: d => '#ddd', stroke: d => '#ccc', strokeWidth: d => 1, zIndex: d => 1, } }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: lakes, featureStyle: { fill: d => '#fff', opacity: d => 1, stroke: d => 'none', } }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: reservations, featureStyle: { fill: d => '#666', fillOpacity: d => 0.3, stroke: d => '#666', strokeOpacity: d => 0.7, } }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: hds, // geojson featureStyle: { fill: d => 'none', stroke: d => '#fff', strokeWidth: d => 1, zIndex: d => 1, } }), new PointLayer({ geodata: cities, featureStyle: { fill: d => 'none', stroke: d => '#444', strokeWidth: d => 0.5, radius: d => d.radius, }, // labelStyle: { // text: d => (width > 500) ? d.NAME : '', // dx: d => d.offset ? d.offset[0] : '0.5em', // dy: d => d.offset ? d.offset[1] : '0.5em', // }, }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: state, featureStyle: { fill: d => 'none', stroke: d => '#000', strokeWidth: d => 2, } }), new PointLayer({ geodata: renderedDims.regionalLabels, featureStyle: { fill: d => 'none', stroke: d => 'none', }, labelStyle: { text: d => d.label, fontWeight: d => 'bold' }, }), new FeatureLayer({ geodata: renderedDims.regionalConnectors, // geojson featureStyle: { fill: d => 'none', stroke: d => '#222', strokeWidth: d => 0.5, } }), new PointLayer({ geodata: renderedDims.districts, customMarker: districtMarker, renderTooltip: renderTooltip, }), ], })35:T7e1,cityGroupLabels = [ { "label": "Missoula", "x": 0.01, "y": 0.55, "box": [0, 0.53, 0.28, 0.77], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.18, 0.53], [0.235, 0.44]] }, { "label": "Helena", "x": 0.47, "y": 0.685, "box": [0.4, 0.675, 0.63, 0.83], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.43, 0.675], [0.38, 0.47]] }, { "label": "Butte", "x": 0.34, "y": 0.855, "box": [0.32, 0.84, 0.55, 0.95], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.36, 0.84], [0.34, 0.52]] }, { "label": "Bozeman", "x": 0.69, "y": 0.67, "box": [0.65, 0.66, 0.92, 0.95], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.72, 0.66], [0.452, 0.535]] }, { "label": "Bitterroot Valley", "x": 0.015, "y": 0.85, "box": [0, 0.82, 0.28, 0.95], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.15, 0.82], [0.15, 0.77]] }, { "label": "Flathead Valley", "x": 0., "y": 0.015, "box": [-0.05, 0.0, 0.25, 0.22], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.21, 0.22], [0.22, 0.278]] }, { "label": "Great Falls", "x": 0.30, "y": 0.015, "box": [0.28, 0.0, 0.515, 0.22], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.39, 0.22], [0.415, 0.355]] }, { "label": "Havre", "x": 0.525, "y": 0.135, "connector": [[0.55, 0.21], [0.521, 0.285]] // "box": [0.585, 0.02, 0.94, 0.22], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected }, { "label": "Livingston", "x": 0.51, "y": 0.63, "connector": [[0.48, 0.595], [0.47, 0.52]] // "box": [0.585, 0.02, 0.94, 0.22], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected }, { "label": "Miles City", "x": 0.8, "y": 0.62, "connector": [[0.77, 0.588], [0.76, 0.47]] // "box": [0.585, 0.02, 0.94, 0.22], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected }, { "label": "Billings", "x": 0.69, "y": 0.012, "box": [0.61, 0.0, 0.97, 0.22], // x1, y1, x2, y2 unprojected "connector": [[0.69, 0.22], [0.6, 0.495]] }, ]36:Te8f,districtMarker = (d, i, nodes) => { const data = d.properties const boundColor = data => { // const classification = swingClassification(data) // // TODO - fine-tune this swing district logic // if (classification === 'Safe gop') return colors.R // if (classification === 'Safe dem') return colors.D // if (classification === 'Swing') return '#e6ab02' // highlight // else return '#666' if ((data.legislativeWins.D >= 1) && (data.legislativeWins.R >= 1)) return '#e6ab02' // highlight if (data.legislativeWins.D === 4) return colors.D if (data.legislativeWins.R === 4) return colors.R else return '#666' } const markerWidth = 38 const marker = d3.select(nodes[i]) .datum(data) .append('g').attr('class','district-marker') const gridWidth = markerWidth - 6 const iconWidth = gridWidth / 10 // const cells = [...Array(100).keys()].map(i => { // // Rs first, then Ds // if (1-i/100 <= data.davesRating.R) return colors.R // if (i / 100 <= data.davesRating.D) return colors.D // else return '#aaa' // }) // marker // .append('g') // .attr('transform',`translate(${-gridWidth/2},${-gridWidth/2})`) // .selectAll('rect') // .data(cells).join('rect') // .attr('width', iconWidth) // .attr('height', iconWidth) // .attr('y', (d,i) => 0+iconWidth*(i % 10)) // .attr('x', (d,i) => 0+iconWidth*Math.floor(i/10)) // .attr('fill', d => d) // // .attr('fill-opacity',0.8) // // .attr('stroke', d => d) const pattern = marker.append('g') .attr('opacity',1) pattern.append('rect') .attr('transform',`translate(${-gridWidth/2},${-gridWidth/2})`) .attr('x',0).attr('y',0) .attr('width', gridWidth).attr('height',gridWidth) .attr('fill', '#aaa') // .attr('transform',`translate(${-gridWidth/2},${-gridWidth/2})`) // D const nDem = Math.round(data.davesRating.D*100) pattern.append('path') .attr('transform',`translate(${-gridWidth/2},${-gridWidth/2})`) .attr('d', ` M 0 0 h ${Math.ceil(nDem/10)*iconWidth} v${(nDem % 10)*iconWidth} h${(nDem % 10 === 0) ? 0 : -1*iconWidth} v${(10 - nDem % 10)*iconWidth} h -${Math.floor(nDem/10)*iconWidth} `) .attr('fill', colors.D) // R const nGop = Math.round(data.davesRating.R*100) pattern .append('path') .attr('transform',`rotate(180) translate(${-gridWidth/2},${-gridWidth/2})`) .attr('d', ` M 0 0 h ${Math.ceil(nGop/10)*iconWidth} v${(nGop % 10)*iconWidth} h${(nGop % 10 === 0) ? 0 : -1*iconWidth} v${(10 - nGop % 10)*iconWidth} h -${Math.floor(nGop/10)*iconWidth} `) .attr('fill', colors.R) marker .append('line') .attr('y1', -markerWidth/2 - 3) .attr('x1',0) .attr('y2',markerWidth/2 + 3) .attr('x2',0) .attr('stroke','#222') .attr('opacity',0.5) if (data.isMajorityNative) { const m = markerWidth/4 marker.append('path') .attr('d', `M ${2*m} ${0.5*m} L ${2*m} ${2*m} L ${0.5*m} ${2*m}`) .attr('fill', '#222') } marker .append('rect').attr('class','marker-boundary') .attr('width', markerWidth) .attr('height',markerWidth) .attr('x',-1*markerWidth/2) .attr('y',-1*markerWidth/2) .attr('fill','none') .attr('stroke-width', 3) .attr('stroke', boundColor) marker .append('text') .attr('x', 0) .attr('y', 5) .attr('font-weight','bold') .attr('text-anchor','middle') .attr('font-size',14) .attr('fill','white') .attr('opacity',0.8) .text(data.district.replace('HD ','')) // for easier/more reliable touch interactions const hoverElement = marker.append('circle') .attr('r',20) .attr('cx',0) .attr('cy',0) .attr('opacity',0) }37:Tb75,renderTooltip = (tooltip, event) => { // Sample tooltip generation function const data = event.target.__data__ const leanFormat = d => d3.format('+.0f')(d*100) const pFormat = d3.format('.1%') const winsNumber = (value, party) => (value > 0) ? `${value} ${party} win${(value !== 1) ? 's' : ''}` : `${value} ${party} wins` tooltip.html(`

${data.locale}

${data.isMajorityNative ? `

(Majority-Native district)

` : ''}

Leans ${pFormat(data.davesRating.R)} R and ${pFormat(data.davesRating.D)} D on average

according to Dave's Redistricting

Montana House elections

${data.legislativeElections.sort((a,b) => b.year - a.year).map(elex => { return `

${elex.year}: ${elex.winnerParty}${leanFormat(elex.winnerPercentMargin)} (${elex.winner})

` }).join('')}

Partisan lean scores

${data.davesRating.R > data.davesRating.D ? `R` : `D`}${leanFormat(Math.abs(data.davesRating.R - data.davesRating.D))} per Dave's Redistricting index

${data.avgGOPLeanStatewideRaces > 0 ? `R` : `D`}${leanFormat(Math.abs(data.avgGOPLeanStatewideRaces))} in major statewide races

${ data.avgGOPLeanLegislativeRaces ? `

${data.avgGOPLeanLegislativeRaces > 0 ? `R` : `D`}${leanFormat(Math.abs(data.avgGOPLeanLegislativeRaces))} in contested legislative races

` : ''}

Major statewide races since '16

${winsNumber(data.statewideWins.R, 'R')} vs. ${winsNumber(data.statewideWins.D, 'D')}

`) const toolTipStyle = tooltipDefaultStyle // object Object.keys(toolTipStyle).forEach(key => { tooltip.style(key, toolTipStyle[key]) }) tooltip .style("top", (event.pageY-10)+"px") .style("left",(event.pageX+10)+"px") }38:Td57,cities = ({ "type": "FeatureCollection", "features": [ { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-114.00941481367617, 46.86845609815254] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3050200", "NAME": "Missoula", "offset": [18, -6], "radius": 15, } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-105.83850296885869, 46.40588180031621] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3049525", "NAME": "Miles City", "radius": 3, } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-114.32618037830662, 48.21553771988646] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3040075", "NAME": "The Flathead", "offset": [-25, -35], "radius": 30, } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-109.68049816861198, 48.54275568290601] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3035050", "NAME": "Havre", "radius": 3, } }, // { // "type": "Feature", // "geometry": // { // "type": "Point", // "coordinates": [-104.711913, 47.109154] // }, // "properties": // { // "GEOID": "XXX", // "NAME": "Glendive", // "offset": [-15, -5] // } // }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-112.54225090137798, 45.99630474669668] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3011397", "NAME": "Butte", "radius": 15, "offset": [-15,20] } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-111.05476616601253, 45.682775182946244] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3008950", "NAME": "Bozeman", "radius": 15, "offset": [10,25], } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-112.0196972521252, 46.59642057169749] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3035600", "NAME": "Helena", "offset": [15, -10], "radius": 15, } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-108.55027669152761, 45.788885426373696] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3006550", "NAME": "Billings", "offset": [22, 0], "radius": 20, } }, { "type": "Feature", "geometry": { "type": "Point", "coordinates": [-111.29948415503986, 47.50216159847621] }, "properties": { "GEOID": "3032800", "NAME": "Great Falls", "radius": 15, "offset": [18,-5], } }] 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\n \n \n

Buckets of voters: How Montana's 2014-2023 House map sorts voters its into 100 districts

\n
\n

${legend()}

\n ${montanaMap()}\n

Data: Montana Secretary of State, Dave's Redistricting. Graphic: Eric Dietrich / MTFP

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