2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Análisis de deserción Universitaria con Inteligencia Artificial | Ernesto Laval | Observable"}] 32:T710,carreras = ["ARQUITECTURA","AUDITORIA E INGENIERIA EN CONTROL DE GESTION","DERECHO","ENFERMERIA","FONOAUDIOLOGIA","INGENIERIA CIVIL INDUSTRIAL","INGENIERIA CIVIL INFORMATICA","INGENIERIA COMERCIAL","INGENIERIA EN CONSTRUCCION","INGENIERIA EN INFORMATICA","KINESIOLOGIA","MEDICINA","NUTRICION Y DIETETICA","OBSTETRICIA Y PUERICULTURA","ODONTOLOGIA","PEDAGOGIA EN ARTES VISUALES","PEDAGOGIA EN CASTELLANO","PEDAGOGIA EN EDUCACION BASICA","PEDAGOGIA EN EDUCACION FISICA","PEDAGOGIA EN EDUCACION PARVULARIA","PEDAGOGIA EN HISTORIA, GEOGRAFIA Y CIENCIAS SOCIALES","PEDAGOGIA EN INGLES","PEDAGOGIA EN MATEMATICAS","PSICOLOGIA","PUBLICISTA Y COMUNICADOR INTEGRAL","RELACIONES PUBLICAS Y PRODUCCION DE EVENTOS","TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO EN ADMINISTRACION DE EMPRESAS","TERAPIA OCUPACIONAL","TRABAJO SOCIAL"] //carreras = ["ARQUITECTURA","AUDITORIA E INGENIERIA EN CONTROL DE GESTION","DERECHO","ENFERMERIA","ESPECIALIZACION EN IMPLANTOLOGIA BUCO MAXILOFACIAL","ESPECIALIZACION EN REHABILITACION ORAL","FONOAUDIOLOGIA","INGENIERIA CIVIL INDUSTRIAL","INGENIERIA CIVIL INFORMATICA","INGENIERIA COMERCIAL","INGENIERIA EN CONSTRUCCION","INGENIERIA EN INFORMATICA","KINESIOLOGIA","MAGISTER ACADEMICO EN DERECHO PUBLICO Y PRIVADO","MAGISTER EN DOCENCIA UNIVERSITARIA","MAGISTER GESTION EN NEGOCIOS","MEDICINA","NUTRICION Y DIETETICA","OBSTETRICIA Y PUERICULTURA","ODONTOLOGIA","PEDAGOGIA EN ARTES VISUALES","PEDAGOGIA EN CASTELLANO","PEDAGOGIA EN EDUCACION BASICA","PEDAGOGIA EN EDUCACION FISICA","PEDAGOGIA EN EDUCACION PARVULARIA","PEDAGOGIA EN HISTORIA, GEOGRAFIA Y CIENCIAS SOCIALES","PEDAGOGIA EN INGLES","PEDAGOGIA EN MATEMATICAS","PSICOLOGIA","PUBLICISTA Y COMUNICADOR INTEGRAL","RELACIONES PUBLICAS Y PRODUCCION DE EVENTOS","TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO EN ADMINISTRACION DE EMPRESAS","TERAPIA OCUPACIONAL","TRABAJO SOCIAL"] 33:[] 30:{"id":"f128c7a5098945b0","slug":"analisis-de-desercion-universitaria-con-inteligencia-art","title":"Análisis de deserción Universitaria con Inteligencia Artificial","thumbnail":"d4ff416b54c6730ac7793338ecd6e27e9ca16031b7141b2f54fb28b17eb19258","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2018-10-15T22:06:51.679Z","update_time":"$D2019-03-19T19:32:14.719Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2018-10-16T02:28:24.629Z","fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"0843f5dc42ca68a0","login":"elaval","name":"Ernesto Laval","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/089f0414fc9025dadb05cc06d7a406bc9be10093187c46729cb4ba3a4098dc30","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":149,"publish_version":149,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"e04cd7b5f4351ae9","login":"elaval","name":"Ernesto Laval","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/089f0414fc9025dadb05cc06d7a406bc9be10093187c46729cb4ba3a4098dc30","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"e04cd7b5f4351ae9","login":"elaval","name":"Ernesto Laval","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/089f0414fc9025dadb05cc06d7a406bc9be10093187c46729cb4ba3a4098dc30","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Análisis de deserción Universitaria con Inteligencia Artificial","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Análisis de deserción Universitaria con Inteligencia Artificial`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":58,"value":"html`Este ejercicio se realizó entrenando una red neuronal con datos de estudiantes que ingresaron a primer año en la Universidad Autónoma de Chile el año 2014. Se considera que un estudiante deserta, cuando se ha matriculado en otra institución en los siguientes 3 años (2014, 2015 o 2016) o cuando no se ha matriculado en ninguna institución por 2 años seguidos.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":61,"value":"html`El modelo considera que variables predictoras de la deserción son: el ranking de egreso (e.g. percentil 10% son los estudiantes mejor rankeados en l establñecimiento escolar de egreso), la dependencia del establecimiento escolar donde egresó el estudiante (MUN, PS, PP, AD) y la carrera`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":66,"value":"html`

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":68,"value":"html`Seleccione parámetrosde ranking, carrera y dependencia para ver una estimación del riesgo de deserción`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":20,"value":"viewof ranking = slider({\n min: 0.1, \n max: 1, \n step: 0.1, \n format: \".0%\",\n description: \"Ranking de egreso escolar (percentil)\",\n value: 0.5\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"viewof carrera = select(carreras)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":26,"value":"viewof dependencia = select(dependencias)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":70,"value":"html`Para un estudiante egresado de un establecimiento ${mapDependencia[dependencia]}, ubicado en el percentil ${percentil} de ranking en la carrera de ${carrera}, se estima un ${d3.format(\".0%\")(probabilidadDesercion)} de riesgo de deserción

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":91,"value":"html`Distribución según dependencia para decil ${percentil} en ranking y carrera de ${carrera}:`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":55,"value":"vegalite({\n data: {values: predictByDependencia()},\n mark: \"bar\",\n encoding: {\n x: {field: \"name\", type: \"ordinal\", title:\"Dependencia\" },\n y: {aggregate: \"mean\", field: \"probability\", type: \"quantitative\", title:\"Riesgo de deserción\", \"axis\": {\"format\": \".0%\"}\n }\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":94,"value":"html`Distribución según percentil de ranking para dependencia ${mapDependencia[dependencia]} y carrera de ${carrera}:`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":53,"value":"vegalite({\n data: {values: predictByPercentil()},\n mark: \"area\",\n encoding: {\n x: {field: \"name\", type: \"quantitative\", title:\"Carrera\"},\n y: {aggregate: \"mean\", field: \"probability\", type: \"quantitative\", title:\"Riesgo de deserción\", \"axis\": {\"format\": \".0%\"}}\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":99,"value":"html`Distribución según carrera para dependencia ${mapDependencia[dependencia]} y decil ${percentil} en ranking`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":51,"value":"vegalite({\n data: {values: predictByCarrera()},\n mark: \"bar\",\n encoding: {\n x: {field: \"name\", type: \"ordinal\", title:\"Carrera\"},\n y: {aggregate: \"mean\", field: \"probability\", type: \"quantitative\", title:\"Riesgo de deserción\", \"axis\": {\"format\": \".0%\"}}\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":102,"value":"html`

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"percentil = ranking*100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":30,"value":"indexCarrera = carreras.indexOf(carrera)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":32,"value":"indexDependencia = dependencias.indexOf(dependencia)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":79,"value":"probabilidadDesercion = predictions[0]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":36,"value":"predictions = tf.tidy(() => \n //myModel.predict(predictTensor)\n model.predict(predictTensor)\n).dataSync()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":34,"value":"predictTensor = {\n \n let tensorCarrera = tf.oneHot([indexCarrera], carreras.length)\n let tensorDependencia = tf.oneHot([indexDependencia], dependencias.length)\n let tensorPercentil = tf.tensor([percentil/100], [1,1])\n return tf.concat([tensorCarrera, tensorDependencia, tensorPercentil], 1)\n \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"model = tf.loadModel(\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/elaval/datasets/master/my-model-dropoutv3.json\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":147,"value":"predictByDependencia()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":39,"value":"predictByDependencia = () => {\n let basedata = {carrera_2014: carrera, dependencia: dependencia,percentil: percentil}\n \n let data = dependencias.map(d => {\n let r = _.clone(basedata);\n r['dependencia']=d;\n return r\n })\n \n let tensor=buildTensor(data);\n \n let predictions = tf.tidy(() => \n model.predict(tensor)\n ).dataSync()\n \n return dependencias.map((d,i) => ({name: d, probability: predictions[i*2]}))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":43,"value":"predictByPercentil = () => {\n const percentiles = [\"10\",\"20\",\"30\",\"40\",\"50\",\"60\",\"70\",\"80\",\"90\",\"100\"];\n let basedata = {carrera_2014: carrera, dependencia: dependencia,percentil: percentil}\n \n let data = (percentiles).map(d => {\n let r = _.clone(basedata);\n r['percentil']=d;\n return r\n })\n \n let tensor=buildTensor(data);\n \n let predictions = tf.tidy(() => \n model.predict(tensor)\n ).dataSync()\n \n return percentiles.map((d,i) => ({name: d, probability: predictions[i*2]}))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"predictByCarrera = () => {\n let basedata = {carrera_2014: carrera, dependencia: dependencia,percentil: percentil}\n \n let data = (carreras).map(d => {\n let r = _.clone(basedata);\n r['carrera_2014']=d;\n return r\n })\n \n let tensor=buildTensor(data);\n \n let predictions = tf.tidy(() => \n model.predict(tensor)\n ).dataSync()\n \n return carreras.map((d,i) => ({name: d, probability: predictions[i*2]}))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"dependencias = [\"MUN\",\"PS\",\"PP\",\"AD\"]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":41,"value":"buildTensor = (items) => {\n let tensorCarrera = tf.oneHot(items.map(d => carreras.indexOf(d.carrera_2014)),carreras.length)\n let tensorDependencia = tf.oneHot(items.map(d => dependencias.indexOf(d.dependencia)),dependencias.length)\n let tensorPercentil = tf.tensor(items.map(d => +d.percentil/100),[items.length,1]);\n \n let tensor = tf.concat([tensorCarrera, tensorDependencia, tensorPercentil], 1);\n return tensor;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":71,"value":"mapDependencia = ({\"PS\":\"Particular Subvencionado\", \"MUN\": \"Municipal\", \"PP\": \"Particular Pagado\", \"AD\": \"de Administración Delegada\"})\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":87,"value":"html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"_ =require(\"lodash\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":8,"value":"import {number, slider, select} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":22,"value":"vegalite = require(\"@observablehq/vega-lite@0.1\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"tf = require('@tensorflow/tfjs@0.14')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W33","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 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