2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Projected Evictions from Shelters for Chicago Asylum seekers | Forest Gregg | Observable"}] 32:T85c,# Projected Evictions from Shelters for Chicago Asylum seekers Actual evictions have started and [are being tracked here](https://observablehq.com/@fgregg/60-day-policy-evictions) On November 17, 2023, the [Brandon Johnson administration announced a policy that asylum seekers would be allowed to stay in shelters for 60 days](https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/mayor/press_room/press_releases/2023/november/announcement-new-regulatory-measures.html). That policy has been amended a number of times, most significantly on [January 29th, 2024](https://news.wttw.com/2024/01/29/chicago-won-t-evict-migrants-until-least-mid-march-mayor-brandon-johnson-announces) and on [March 15, 2024](https://news.wttw.com/2024/03/15/evictions-migrants-chicago-city-shelters-start-sunday-families-children-get-respite-until). Currently, the administration divides the shelter population into six groups, and five with eviction dates. | Group | Family* | Arrival Start | Arrival End | Eviction Date | ASERAP Eligible | |-------|-------------------------------|---------------|-------------|----------------------|------------------| | A | not relevant | 2022-01-01 | 2023-11-16 | None† | eligible | | B | no | 2023-11-17 | 2023-12-31 | 120 days after entry | not eligible | | C | no | 2024-01-01 | 2024-01-28 | 90 days after entry | not eligible | | D | no | 2024-01-29 | 2024-04-11 | 60 days after entry | not eligible | | E | yes | 2023-11-17 | 2024-04-11 | Between 2024-06-10 and 2024-07-09 | not eligible | | F | not relevant | 2024-04-12 | Ongoing | 60 days after entry | not eligible | \* Family status is whether you are part of a family with a child under 18. † Asylum seekers must be working towards finding housing through ASERAP. Given the history of arrivals and observed exit rates, we project evictions in the chart below. Please note that group "D" will continue to increase as new arrivals will continue come in, but they haven't come yet, so we can't model. 33:T448,Plot.plot({ title: "Projected Chicago shelter evictions", marginLeft: 50, y: { grid: true, nice: true, label: cumulative === "normal" ? "evictions per day" : "cumulative evictions" }, x: { round: true, domain: [ d3.min([new Date(), first_eviction_date]), d3.max(pulsed_eviction_rate.map((d) => d.date)) ] }, color: { legend: true, scheme: groupby === "group" ? "observable10" : "Accent" }, marks: [ plotType( pulsed_eviction_rate, Plot.binX( { y: "sum", reverse: cumulative === "normal" }, { x: "date", fill: groupby === "all" ? (d) => "total" : groupby === "group" ? "group" : (d) => d.group === "A" || d.group === "B" ? "TPS eligible" : "not TPS eligible", interval: "day", y: "count", cumulative: cumulative === "cumulative", tip: true, inset: 0 } ) ), Plot.ruleY([0]) ] })34:T745,pulsed_eviction_rate = { const rates = [ ...dateRange(first_eviction_date, end_date).map((d) => ({ date: d, group: "B", count: (() => { const match = higher_eviction_rates( new Date("2023-11-17"), new Date("2024-01-01"), 120 ).find((e) => d >= e.start && d < e.end); return match ? match.count / daysBetween(match.start, match.end) : 0; })() })), ...dateRange(first_eviction_date, end_date).map((d) => ({ date: d, group: "C", count: (() => { const match = higher_eviction_rates( new Date("2023-12-31"), new Date("2024-01-29"), 90 ).find((e) => d >= e.start && d < e.end); return match ? match.count / daysBetween(match.start, match.end) : 0; })() })), ...dateRange(first_eviction_date, end_date).map((d) => ({ date: d, group: "D", count: (() => { const match = higher_eviction_rates( new Date("2024-01-28"), new Date("2024-04-11"), 60 ).find((e) => d >= e.start && d < e.end); return match ? match.count / daysBetween(match.start, match.end) : 0; })() })), ...dateRange(first_eviction_date, end_date).map((d) => ({ date: d, group: "F", count: (() => { const match = higher_eviction_rates( new Date("2024-04-12"), end_date, 60 ).find((e) => d >= e.start && d < e.end); return match ? match.count / daysBetween(match.start, match.end) : 0; })() })), ...deferred_family_evictions ]; return rates .filter( (e) => e.date <= d3.max(rates.filter((d) => d.count).map((d) => d.date)) ) .map((d) => ({ ...d, count: d.group < "E" ? d.count * (1 - proportion_families) : d.count })); }35:[] 30:{"id":"432e2d3820d4a6e8","slug":"chicago-shelter-eviction-rates","title":"Projected Evictions from Shelters for Chicago Asylum seekers","thumbnail":"c82cfe2de4d4b2b46dc01fc9d3b6ff553fb0f8c59a1c2a85ae535d9ea5fcf9b4","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2024-01-10T16:19:39.698Z","update_time":"$D2024-04-25T20:25:15.919Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2024-01-10T16:19:39.698Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"97541738f61a2563","login":"fgregg","name":"Forest Gregg","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/7d00689d4df1c6365c47d99b27c8a37a6722b76a620b6df0af6b0b6fbd3a114d","tier":"starter_2024","bio":""},"version":557,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"e11e15c775d16887","login":"fgregg","name":"Forest Gregg","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/7d00689d4df1c6365c47d99b27c8a37a6722b76a620b6df0af6b0b6fbd3a114d","tier":null,"bio":""}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"e11e15c775d16887","login":"fgregg","name":"Forest Gregg","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/7d00689d4df1c6365c47d99b27c8a37a6722b76a620b6df0af6b0b6fbd3a114d","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[{"id":"3c9afb732e8ae922","reply_to_id":null,"content":"turn into cumulative graph, probably need to turn this into pulsed data set.","create_time":"$D2024-01-12T18:08:52.826Z","update_time":null,"resolved":false,"user":{"type":"individual","id":"e11e15c775d16887","login":"fgregg","name":"Forest Gregg","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/7d00689d4df1c6365c47d99b27c8a37a6722b76a620b6df0af6b0b6fbd3a114d","tier":null}}],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":{"id":"33a9d8b2788bd90f","slug":"blog-transfer","title":"blog transfer","owner":{"id":"97541738f61a2563","login":"fgregg","name":"Forest Gregg"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Projected Evictions from Shelters for Chicago Asylum seekers","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":247,"value":"viewof cumulative = Inputs.radio([\"normal\", \"cumulative\"], {\n label: \"Select one\",\n value: \"cumulative\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":285,"value":"viewof groupby = Inputs.radio([\"group\", \"all\"], {\n label: \"Select one\",\n value: \"group\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":229,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":365,"value":"\nIf this remains the city policy We could be looking at ${(d3.sum(compressed_eviction_rate.filter(d => d.date < thirty_days_from_now && d.date >= new Date()).map(d => d.count))).toLocaleString('en-US', {minimumSignificantDigits: 2, maximumSignificantDigits: 2})} evictions in the next thirty days. \n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":452,"value":"proportion_families = 0.65","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":405,"value":"plotType = cumulative === \"cumulative\" ? Plot.areaY : Plot.rectY","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":291,"value":"first_eviction_date = new Date(\"2024-03-17\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":312,"value":"compressed_eviction_rate = pulsed_eviction_rate.map((d) => ({\n ...d,\n date: d.date < first_eviction_date ? first_eviction_date : d.date,\n count: d.count\n}))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":454,"value":"deferred_family_evictions = {\n const expiration_date = new Date(\"2024-06-10\");\n const june_10 = d3.sum(\n shelter_entrances\n .filter(\n (d) =>\n d.end > new Date(\"2023-11-17\") && d.start < new Date(\"2024-04-11\")\n )\n .map(\n (d) =>\n (proportion_families *\n (d.count *\n Math.exp(-exit_rate * daysBetween(d.start, expiration_date)) +\n d.count *\n Math.exp(-exit_rate * daysBetween(d.end, expiration_date)))) /\n 2\n )\n );\n return dateRange(first_eviction_date, end_date).map((d) => ({\n date: d,\n group: \"E\",\n count:\n d > new Date(\"2024-06-09\") && d < new Date(\"2024-07-10\")\n ? (june_10 / 30) *\n Math.exp(-exit_rate * daysBetween(expiration_date, d))\n : 0\n }));\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":201,"value":"$34","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":219,"value":"dateRange(new Date(\"2024-01-17\"), new Date(\"2024-04-05\"))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":26,"value":"higher_eviction_rates = (start_date, end_date, length_of_stay) =>\n shelter_entrances\n .filter((d) => d.end > start_date && d.start < end_date)\n .map((d) => ({\n start: addDays(d.start, length_of_stay),\n end: addDays(d.end, length_of_stay),\n count:\n (d.count * Math.exp(-exit_rate * length_of_stay) +\n d.count *\n Math.exp(\n -exit_rate * (length_of_stay + daysBetween(d.start, d.end))\n )) /\n 2\n }))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":30,"value":"last_date = new Date()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":120,"value":"exit_rate = d3.mean(\n exit_rates.filter((d) => d.start > new Date(\"2023-11-17\")).map((d) => d.rate)\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"thirty_days_from_now = new Date(\n new Date().setDate(new Date(new Date().getDate() + 30))\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":347,"value":"end_date = new Date(new Date().setDate(new Date(new Date().getDate() + 120)))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"import { shelter_entrances, exit_rates } from \"@fgregg/asylum-seeker-net-flows\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":409,"value":"daysBetween = (startDate, endDate) =>\n (endDate.getTime() - startDate.getTime()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":199,"value":"function dateRange(startDate, endDate) {\n const dateArray = [];\n let currentDate = new Date(startDate);\n\n while (currentDate <= new Date(endDate)) {\n dateArray.push(new Date(currentDate));\n currentDate.setUTCDate(currentDate.getUTCDate() + 1);\n currentDate.setUTCHours(0, 0, 0, 0);\n }\n\n return dateArray;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":455,"value":"addDays = (date, diff) => {\n let newDate = new Date(date);\n newDate.setDate(newDate.getDate() + diff);\n return newDate;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":465,"value":"exit_evolution = {\n let pops = [];\n let previous_pop = 11200;\n for (const day of dateRange(first_eviction_date, end_date).filter(\n (d) => d >= new Date(\"2024-03-17\")\n )) {\n const weekly_entrances = shelter_entrances.find(\n (d) => d.start.getTime() <= day && d.end.getTime() >= day\n )?.count;\n console.log(weekly_entrances);\n const voluntary_exits = previous_pop * (1 - Math.exp(-exit_rate));\n const evictions = d3.sum(\n pulsed_eviction_rate\n .filter((d) => d.date.getTime() === day.getTime())\n .map((d) => d.count)\n );\n const current_pop =\n previous_pop -\n voluntary_exits -\n evictions +\n (weekly_entrances ? weekly_entrances / 7 : 0);\n pops.push({\n day,\n current_pop,\n voluntary_exits,\n evictions,\n total_exits: voluntary_exits + evictions,\n total_exit_rate: (voluntary_exits + evictions) / current_pop,\n eviction_exit_rate: evictions / current_pop\n });\n previous_pop = current_pop;\n }\n return pops;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":505,"value":"shelter_entrances.find(\n (d) => d.start < new Date(\"2024-03-17\") && d.end > new Date(\"2024-03-17\")\n).count / 7","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W35","stdlib":"1"}} 31:"$30:body"