25:["$","title",null,{"children":"Making sense of the polls before Israel’s October 26, 2026 election | Fil | Observable"}] 4b:T5b7,Plot.plot({ caption: `Projected seats, rolling average of the last 14 poll days. ${filterNote} Merged and split lists are averaged together, then divided among their original parties before each change. Dashed line: 61-seat majority.`, width, height: 500, marginRight: 250, x: {domain: [d3.min(areaData, d => d.date), electionDay]}, y: {label: "Seats", domain: [0, 120], grid: true}, color: {domain: stackOrder, range: stackOrder.map(p => partyColors.get(p))}, marks: [ Plot.areaY(areaData, {x: "date", y: "seats", fill: "party", order: stackOrder, curve: "step", stroke: "white", strokeWidth: 1}), Plot.text(finalSeats.filter(d => d.seats >= 1), Plot.stackY({x: "date", y: "seats", z: "party", order: stackOrder, text: d => `${d.party} ${Math.round(d.seats)}`, textAnchor: "start", dx: 6})), Plot.ruleY([61], {strokeDasharray: "4,3"}), Plot.ruleY([0]), // Election day marker above the top of the chart Plot.dot([electionDay], {x: d => d, y: 120, symbol: "triangle", rotate: 180, r: 4, fill: "currentColor", dy: -6}), Plot.text([electionDay], {x: d => d, y: 120, text: () => "Election day, Oct 26", lineAnchor: "bottom", dy: -13, fontWeight: "bold"}), bracketMark, Plot.tip(tipData, Plot.pointer(Plot.stackY({ x: "date", y: "seats", z: "party", order: stackOrder, fill: "party", title: d => `${d.party} (${d.bloc})\n${d.seats.toFixed(1)} seats\n${d3.utcFormat("%b %d, %Y")(d.date)}` }))) ] })4c:T537,Plot.plot({ caption: `Projected Knesset seats, Jan–Oct 2026. ${filterNote} Each dot is one poll; the line is a rolling average of the last 14 poll days. Parties are ordered by their average over the last 30 days. Dashed line: 3.25% threshold (about 4 seats).`, width: 960, height: 900, x: {label: null, ticks: 4}, y: {label: "Seats", grid: true, domain: [0, 40]}, fx: {axis: null}, fy: {axis: null}, color: {domain: blocDomain, range: blocDomain.map(b => blocColors[b])}, marks: [ Plot.frame({strokeOpacity: 0.1}), Plot.ruleY([4], {strokeDasharray: "3,3", strokeOpacity: 0.4}), Plot.text(facetLabels, {fx: "col", fy: "row", x: x0, y: 40, text: "party", fill: "bloc", textAnchor: "start", lineAnchor: "top", dx: 4, dy: 4, fontWeight: "bold", fontSize: 12}), Plot.dot(facetData, {fx: "col", fy: "row", x: "date", y: "seats", r: 1.5, fill: "bloc", fillOpacity: 0.3}), Plot.lineY(facetData, Plot.windowY({k: 14, anchor: "end", reduce: "mean"}, Plot.groupX({y: "mean"}, {fx: "col", fy: "row", x: d => d3.utcDay.floor(d.date), y: "seats", z: "party", stroke: "bloc", strokeWidth: 2}))), Plot.tip(facetData, Plot.pointer({fx: "col", fy: "row", x: "date", y: "seats", title: d => `${d.party} (${d.bloc}): ${d.seats} seats\n${d3.utcFormat("%b %d, %Y")(d.date)}\n${d.outlet} / ${d.pollster}`})) ] })4d:Td30,// *Blocs over time* // Rolling 14-poll-day seat averages per list. Lists that merged or split are // averaged as one combined series, then shown as their original lists before // the change, so the stack always totals 120. const num = v => v === "" || v == null ? 0 : +v; const changes = [ {day: "2026-04-26", successors: ["together"], predecessors: ["bennett-2026", "yesh-atid"]}, {day: "2026-07-08", successors: ["joint-list", "raam"], predecessors: ["joint-list"]}, {day: "2026-09-06", successors: ["rzp-zehut"], predecessors: ["rzp", "zionist-home"]} ].map(c => ({...c, day: +parseDay(c.day)})); const currentLists = ["likud", "otzma", "utj", "shas", "rzp-zehut", "joint-list", "raam", "yashar", "together", "democrats", "yisrael-beiteinu", "reservists-nep", "amcha-yisrael", "blue-white"]; const formerLists = ["bennett-2026", "yesh-atid", "rzp", "zionist-home"]; const pollRows = pollsFiltered.filter(d => d.fieldwork_end).map(d => ({day: +parseDay(d.fieldwork_end), d})); const stackDays = d3.sort(new Set(pollRows.map(r => r.day))); // Ra'am's share of Joint List + Ra'am in the first 14 poll days after the split, // used to divide the earlier Joint List const raamDays = stackDays.filter(t => t >= changes[1].day).slice(0, 14); const raamRows = pollRows.filter(r => raamDays.includes(r.day)); const raamRatio = d3.sum(raamRows, r => num(r.d.raam)) / d3.sum(raamRows, r => num(r.d.raam) + num(r.d["joint-list"])); // Each poll as published (blank → 0), with today's lists filled in before // they existed const asRow = d => { const v = Object.fromEntries(partyCols.map(p => [p, num(d[p])])); if (d.together === "") v.together = v["bennett-2026"] + v["yesh-atid"]; if (d["rzp-zehut"] === "") v["rzp-zehut"] = v.rzp + v["zionist-home"] + v.zehut; if (d.raam === "") [v.raam, v["joint-list"]] = [v["joint-list"] * raamRatio, v["joint-list"] * (1 - raamRatio)]; return v; }; const daily = d3.rollup(pollRows, rows => { const vs = rows.map(r => asRow(r.d)); return Object.fromEntries(partyCols.map(p => [p, d3.mean(vs, v => v[p])])); }, r => r.day); const smooth = (i, p) => d3.mean(stackDays.slice(Math.max(0, i - 13), i + 1), t => daily.get(t)[p]); const stackSeries = stackDays.flatMap((day, i) => { const seats = new Map([...currentLists.map(p => [p, smooth(i, p)]), ...formerLists.map(p => [p, 0])]); for (const {day: change, successors, predecessors} of changes) { if (day >= change) continue; const total = d3.sum(successors, p => seats.get(p)); const raw = predecessors.map(p => smooth(i, p)), rawSum = d3.sum(raw); for (const p of successors) seats.set(p, 0); predecessors.forEach((p, k) => seats.set(p, total * (rawSum > 0 ? raw[k] / rawSum : 1 / predecessors.length))); } return [...seats].map(([party, s]) => ({date: new Date(day), party, seats: s, bloc: blocOf(party)})); }); // Areas: non-zero points plus one zero at each start/end (lists hand over // between consecutive poll days); tips: non-zero points only const areaData = d3.sort(d3.groups(stackSeries, d => d.party).flatMap(([, s]) => s.filter((d, i) => d.seats > 0 || s[i - 1]?.seats > 0 || s[i + 1]?.seats > 0) ), d => +d.date); const tipData = stackSeries.filter(d => d.seats > 0); const finalSeats = stackSeries.filter(d => +d.date === stackDays.at(-1)); const blocFinal = d3.rollup(finalSeats, v => d3.sum(v, d => d.seats), d => d.bloc);4e:T912,// Stack order (bottom → top), grouped by bloc, with shades of the bloc color per party const stackGroups = { coalition: ["likud", "otzma", "utj", "shas", "rzp-zehut", "rzp"], small: ["zionist-home", "reservists-nep", "amcha-yisrael", "blue-white"], arab: ["joint-list", "raam"], opposition: ["yisrael-beiteinu", "democrats", "yesh-atid", "together", "bennett-2026", "yashar"] }; const stackOrder = Object.values(stackGroups).flat(); const shades = (parties, from, to) => d3.zip(parties, d3.quantize(d3.interpolateRgb(from, to), parties.length)); const partyColors = new Map([ ...shades(stackGroups.coalition, "#08306b", "#9ecae1"), ...d3.zip(stackGroups.small, ["#616161", "#3a3a3a", "#474747", "#545454"]), ...d3.zip(stackGroups.arab, ["#9e9e9e", "#bdbdbd"]), ...shades([...stackGroups.opposition].reverse(), "#a63603", "#fdd0a2") ]); // Right-hand brackets: each bloc's final-day total, stacked in the same order as the areas const bracketSpecs = [ {bloc: COALITION, label: COALITION, size: 24}, {bloc: SMALL, label: "Not represented", size: 0}, {bloc: "Arab parties", label: "Arab parties", size: 14}, {bloc: "Opposition", label: "Opposition", size: 24} ]; const bracketEnds = d3.cumsum(bracketSpecs, b => blocFinal.get(b.bloc) ?? 0); const blocBrackets = bracketSpecs .map((b, i) => ({...b, color: blocColors[b.bloc], y1: bracketEnds[i - 1] ?? 0, y2: bracketEnds[i], seats: bracketEnds[i] - (bracketEnds[i - 1] ?? 0)})) .filter(b => b.seats > 0.05); const bracketMark = (index, {y}, values, {width, marginRight}) => { const x = width - marginRight + 118, pad = 4; return svg`${blocBrackets.map(({label, color, size, seats, y1, y2}) => { const top = y(y2) + pad, bottom = Math.max(top + 2, y(y1) - pad), mid = (top + bottom) / 2; return svg` ${size ? [svg`${label}`, svg`~${Math.round(seats)}`] : svg`${label}`}`; })}`; };4f:[{"id":"ffd2d9be230d8d80a5236301eaa5c76ff79bd0395787c470309409faf146c9b1bb21c64e78be5fe506589be02f92e81c4aa82d41147ac68a1d8f2784ef593e49","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/ffd2d9be230d8d80a5236301eaa5c76ff79bd0395787c470309409faf146c9b1bb21c64e78be5fe506589be02f92e81c4aa82d41147ac68a1d8f2784ef593e49","name":".observable/cache/fetch-4kxt4s1ou1wtogvxc0zjofvhla9jcud8.blob","type":"text/csv; charset=utf-8","lastModified":1793283774000,"size":41554}] 47:{"id":"44f6e3f819dfdf5c","slug":"israel-polls-2026","title":"Making sense of the polls before Israel’s October 26, 2026 election","thumbnail":"acfb18bfc87ce306dc19b503ef22a21fe2ce4f09a8ce0ca93eb09d927053ec0f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2026-10-29T12:30:13.265Z","update_time":"$D2026-10-29T15:08:19.508Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2026-10-29T14:46:34.084Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":true,"stars":3,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"da2a32154638c457","login":"fil","name":"Fil","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d5b1777907117a2bdf2a07eb98600d7a9beb21639fde42b9753e95c88c7731a6","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"Vocateur.","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":646,"publish_version":646,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"45a379fcfcb14253","login":"fil","name":"Fil","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d5b1777907117a2bdf2a07eb98600d7a9beb21639fde42b9753e95c88c7731a6","tier":null,"bio":"Vocateur.","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"45a379fcfcb14253","login":"fil","name":"Fil","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/d5b1777907117a2bdf2a07eb98600d7a9beb21639fde42b9753e95c88c7731a6","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":{"id":"1a3c0357d516b67a","slug":"plot-examples","title":"Fil’s plots","owner":{"id":"da2a32154638c457","login":"fil","name":"Fil"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Making sense of the polls before Israel’s October 26, 2026 election","cells":[{"id":1,"value":"# Making sense of the polls before Israel's October 26, 2026 election\n\nSeat projections for the 120-seat Knesset from 265 opinion polls published between January 1 and October 23, 2026, the last week before the vote. Data: israel\\.com\n\n*Use the checkboxes below to choose which pollsters are included. Channel 14's polls, which are wildly off the mark, are excluded by default.*","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"user","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":[],"output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":181,"value":"const includedPollsters = view(Inputs.checkbox(pollsterKeys, {\n label: \"Include pollsters\",\n value: pollsterKeys.filter(k => k !== \"Channel 14\"),\n format: k => pollsterLabel.get(k)\n}));","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":182,"value":"Plot.legend({color: {domain: blocDomain, range: blocDomain.map(b => blocColors[b])}}) // Group colors","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":174,"value":"$4b","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":170,"value":"## All polls, party by party","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":171,"value":"$4c","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":184,"value":"---\n\n## Data & stacking","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2,"value":"// Load the data\nconst pollsRaw = d3.csv(\"https://www.israel.com/data/israel-election-2026-polls.csv\", {proxy: true, cache: true});","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"agent","summary":"Load polls CSV","tool":{"id":"toolu_019Cnn62xFqPJZQj19ii9yDH","name":"execute"},"providerMetadata":{"anthropic":{"caller":{"type":"direct"}}},"attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":176,"value":"// Normalize pollster name variants, label each with its outlets and poll count (Channel 14's Filber polls are labeled by channel)\nconst pollsterKey = d => d.pollster.startsWith(\"Shlomo Filber\") ? \"Channel 14\" : d.pollster.startsWith(\"Lazar\") ? \"Lazar Research\" : d.pollster.startsWith(\"Maagar Mochot\") ? \"Maagar Mochot\" : d.pollster;\nconst pollsterInfo = d3.sort(d3.rollups(pollsRaw, v => ({n: v.length, outlets: [...new Set(v.map(d => d.outlet))].join(\", \")}), pollsterKey), ([, o]) => -o.n);\nconst pollsterLabel = new Map(pollsterInfo.map(([k, o]) => [k, `${k} (${k === \"Channel 14\" ? \"Shlomo Filber\" : o.outlets}; ${o.n} polls)`]));\nconst pollsterKeys = pollsterInfo.map(([k]) => k);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":185,"value":"// Apply the pollster filter\nconst pollsFiltered = pollsRaw.filter(d => includedPollsters.includes(pollsterKey(d)));\nconst excludedPollsters = pollsterKeys.filter(k => !includedPollsters.includes(k));\nconst filterNote = excludedPollsters.length ? `${pollsFiltered.length} polls; excluding ${excludedPollsters.join(\", \")}.` : `All ${pollsFiltered.length} polls.`;","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3,"value":"// Tidy to one row per poll × party\nconst metaCols = new Set([\"fieldwork_start\", \"fieldwork_end\", \"outlet\", \"pollster\", \"sample_size\", \"outgoing_coalition\", \"source_url\", \"others\"]);\nconst partyCols = pollsRaw.columns.filter(c => !metaCols.has(c));\nconst parseDay = d3.utcParse(\"%Y-%m-%d\");\nconst pollsLong = d3.sort(pollsFiltered.flatMap(d => partyCols\n .filter(p => d[p] !== \"\")\n .map(p => ({date: parseDay(d.fieldwork_end), outlet: d.outlet, pollster: d.pollster, party: p, seats: +d[p]})))\n .filter(d => d.date), d => d.date);\nconst lastPollDate = d3.max(pollsLong, d => d.date);\n// Parties ordered by mean over the last 30 days; drop lists that never polled above 0\nconst partyOrder = d3.groupSort(pollsLong, v => -d3.mean(v.filter(d => d.date >= d3.utcDay.offset(lastPollDate, -30)), d => d.seats) || 0, d => d.party)\n .filter(p => d3.max(pollsLong.filter(d => d.party === p), d => d.seats) > 0);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"agent","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":186,"value":"// Blocs\nconst coalitionParties = new Set([\"likud\", \"otzma\", \"utj\", \"shas\", \"rzp-zehut\", \"rzp\"]);\nconst arabParties = new Set([\"joint-list\", \"raam\"]);\nconst smallParties = new Set([\"reservists-nep\", \"amcha-yisrael\", \"blue-white\", \"zionist-home\"]);\nconst COALITION = \"Outgoing coalition\";\nconst SMALL = \"Under 3.25%: no seats\";\nconst blocOf = p => smallParties.has(p) ? SMALL : coalitionParties.has(p) ? COALITION : arabParties.has(p) ? \"Arab parties\" : \"Opposition\";\nconst blocDomain = [COALITION, \"Opposition\", \"Arab parties\", SMALL];\nconst blocColors = {[COALITION]: \"#2c5d8f\", \"Opposition\": \"#c0602a\", \"Arab parties\": \"#8c8c8c\", [SMALL]: \"#474747\"};","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":177,"value":"// One panel per party, in a 4-wide grid\nconst nCols = 4;\nconst cellOf = p => ({col: partyOrder.indexOf(p) % nCols, row: Math.floor(partyOrder.indexOf(p) / nCols)});\nconst facetData = pollsLong.filter(d => partyOrder.includes(d.party)).map(d => ({...d, ...cellOf(d.party), bloc: blocOf(d.party)}));\nconst facetLabels = partyOrder.map(p => ({party: p, ...cellOf(p), bloc: blocOf(p)}));\nconst x0 = d3.min(facetData, d => d.date);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":173,"value":"$4d","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":178,"value":"$4e","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":183,"value":"const electionDay = new Date(Date.UTC(2026, 9, 26));","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W4f","stdlib":"2"}} 24:null