2a:null 2b:["$","title",null,{"children":"WaniKani Estimator | Fedor Indutny | Observable"}] 30:T141a,calendar = { const state = { level: 1, // Array<{ entry, timestamp }> schedule: [], // Map stages: new Map(), // Map mistakes: new Map(), burned: 0, // Reset at the start of every day lessonCap: 0, reviewCap: 0, }; function update() { for (const [level, entries] of ALL_BY_LEVEL.entries()) { if (level > state.level) { break; } for (const entry of entries) { if (state.stages.has(entry)) { continue; } if (entry.level > state.level) { continue; } const isReady = entry.dependencies .map(depId => ALL_BY_ID.get(depId)) .map(dep => state.stages.get(dep) ?? 0) .every(stage => stage >= GURU_STAGE); if (!isReady) { continue; } // 0 - not learned yet state.stages.set(entry, 0); state.mistakes.set(entry, 0); } } } const DAY = 24; let ticks = 0; const calendar = []; for ( let now = 0; now < DAY * SIMULATION_DAYS && state.burned < ALL.length; now += DAY / CONFIG.RUNS_PER_DAY, ticks++ ) { // Add new lessons update(); const shouldReview = (ticks % CONFIG.REVIEW_EVERY) === 0; const shouldLesson = (ticks % CONFIG.LESSON_EVERY) === 0; if ((ticks % CONFIG.RUNS_PER_DAY) === 0) { state.lessonCap = MAX_LESSONS_PER_DAY; state.reviewCap = MAX_REVIEWS_PER_DAY; } const lessons = Array.from(state.stages.entries()) .filter(([ _, stage ]) => stage === 0) .map(([ entry ]) => entry) .sort((a, b) => { // Order by level if (a.level !== b.level) { return a.level - b.level; } // Then by order return a.order - b.order; }); // Note that state.schedule is always sorted (we keep track of it below) const reviews = []; while ( shouldReview && state.schedule.length && state.schedule[0].timestamp <= now && reviews.length < state.reviewCap ) { reviews.push(state.schedule.shift().entry); } state.reviewCap -= reviews.length; d3.shuffle(reviews); let countByStage = new Map(); let apprenticeCount = 0; for (const stage of state.stages.values()) { if (stage === 0) { continue; } if (stage < GURU_STAGE) { apprenticeCount++; } const stageName = STAGE_NAMES[stage]; countByStage.set(stageName, (countByStage.get(stageName) ?? 0) + 1); } const toLearn = lessons.slice( 0, shouldLesson ? Math.min( state.lessonCap, Math.max(0, MAX_APPRENTICE - apprenticeCount) ) : 0 ); state.lessonCap -= toLearn.length; let updatedSchedule = false; for (const entry of toLearn) { const newStage = 1; state.stages.set(entry, newStage); const delays = getSRSDelaysByLevel(entry.level); state.schedule.push({ entry, timestamp: now + delays[newStage], }); updatedSchedule = true; } for (const entry of reviews) { let newStage = state.stages.get(entry); const isSuccess = Math.random() >= MISTAKE_RATE / 100; if (isSuccess) { newStage += 1; } else { const mistakes = state.mistakes.get(entry) + 1; state.mistakes.set(entry, mistakes); newStage -= Math.ceil(mistakes / 2) * getSRSPenaltyFactor(newStage); newStage = Math.max(1, newStage); } state.stages.set(entry, newStage); const delays = getSRSDelaysByLevel(entry.level); if (newStage >= delays.length) { state.burned++; continue; } state.schedule.push({ entry, timestamp: now + delays[newStage], }); updatedSchedule = true; } if (updatedSchedule) { state.schedule.sort((a, b) => a.timestamp - b.timestamp); } let kanjiInGuru = 0; for (const [ { level, type }, stage ] of state.stages.entries()) { if (stage < GURU_STAGE) { continue; } if (type !== 'kanji') { continue; } if (level === state.level) { kanjiInGuru++; } } if ( state.level < LEVELUP_REQUIREMENT.length && kanjiInGuru >= LEVELUP_REQUIREMENT[state.level] ) { state.level++; } const Level = state.level; const Lessons = toLearn.length; const Reviews = reviews.length; const Burned = state.burned / ALL.length * 100; if (ticks % CONFIG.RUNS_PER_DAY === 0) { calendar.push({ Days: now / DAY, Level, Lessons, Reviews, 'Burned %': Burned, 'Apprentice Count': apprenticeCount, 'By Stage': countByStage, }); } else { const last = calendar[calendar.length - 1]; last.Level = Level; last.Lessons += Lessons; last.Reviews += Reviews; last['Burned %'] = Burned; last['Apprentice Count'] = apprenticeCount; last['By Stage'] = countByStage; } } return calendar; 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2e:{"id":"08e25ba3b3a3c11e","slug":"wanikani-estimator","title":"WaniKani Estimator","thumbnail":"10b524e4d6aa800047fb0e90659d3c906635ed2bfd052d5f756cec68a47595dd","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2023-02-10T00:40:32.552Z","update_time":"$D2024-05-15T04:13:06.144Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2023-02-10T23:19:04.470Z","fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"45d16fa014230070","login":"indutny","name":"Fedor Indutny","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/f790db7ff83b431795ea6c50023d688d196b79183c11c2b18432110463f6d4a3","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1075,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"d26938fddbf9d7bf","login":"indutny","name":"Fedor Indutny","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/f790db7ff83b431795ea6c50023d688d196b79183c11c2b18432110463f6d4a3","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"d26938fddbf9d7bf","login":"indutny","name":"Fedor Indutny","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/f790db7ff83b431795ea6c50023d688d196b79183c11c2b18432110463f6d4a3","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":5,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"WaniKani Estimator","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# WaniKani Estimator","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":592,"value":"This is an estimator/simulator for learning progress on [WaniKani](https://www.wanikani.com).\nIn the past I found that studying all available radicals, kanji, and vocabulary every day\nresults in sudden spikes in the number of items that I had to review daily.\n\nThis page helps with estimating the number of reviews based on the factors listed above.\nFeel free to drag slides around to find what strategy works best for you.\n\n[WaniKani Community Post](https://community.wanikani.com/t/wanikani-estimator/60519)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":642,"value":"viewof LESSON_FREQUENCY = Inputs.range([1, 8], {label: \"Lesson Frequency (per Day)\", step: 1, value: 1})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":874,"value":"viewof MAX_LESSONS_PER_DAY = Inputs.range([5, 100], {label: \"Max Lessons per Day\", step: 1, value: 10})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":891,"value":"viewof MAX_APPRENTICE = Inputs.range([5, 200], {label: \"Max Apprentice Count\", step: 5, value: 200})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":843,"value":"viewof REVIEW_FREQUENCY = Inputs.range([1, 8], {label: \"Review Frequency (per Day)\", step: 1, value: 2})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":659,"value":"viewof MAX_REVIEWS_PER_DAY = Inputs.range([5, 400], {label: \"Max Reviews per Day\", step: 5, value: 150})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":23,"value":"viewof MISTAKE_RATE = Inputs.range([0, 100], {label: \"Mistake rate (%)\", step: 1, value: 10})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":254,"value":"viewof SIMULATION_DAYS = Inputs.range([MONTH / DAY, 3 * YEAR / DAY], {label: \"Simulation Days\", step: 1, value: YEAR / DAY })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":993,"value":"## Results\n\nMean Days per Level: ${levelUpTime.toFixed(1)}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1004,"value":"### Review Count per Day","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":525,"value":"Plot.plot({\n grid: true,\n width,\n x: {\n ticks: 20,\n },\n y: {\n nice: true,\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.line(calendar, {x: \"Days\", y: \"Reviews\", tip: true }),\n Plot.ruleX(levelUpDays, { x: \"Days\", title: d => `Level: ${d.Level}`, stroke: \"#97bbf5\", tip: true }),\n Plot.ruleY([0])\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1008,"value":"### Level Progression","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":548,"value":"Plot.plot({\n grid: true,\n width,\n x: {\n ticks: 20,\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.areaY(calendar, {x: \"Days\", y: \"Level\", curve: \"step-after\", tip: true, fill: \"Level\" }),\n Plot.ruleY([0, 20])\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1014,"value":"### SRS Stage Progression","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":896,"value":"Plot.plot({\n grid: true,\n width,\n x: {\n ticks: 20,\n },\n y: {\n nice: true,\n },\n color: {\n legend: true,\n type: \"ordinal\",\n scheme: \"Observable10\",\n domain: [\"Apprentice\", \"Guru\", \"Master\", \"Enlightened\", \"Burned\"],\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.lineY(stageCalendar, { x: \"Days\", y: \"Count\", z: \"Stage\", stroke: \"Stage\", strokeWidth: 2, tip: true}),\n Plot.ruleY([0])\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1006,"value":"### Lesson Count per Day","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":681,"value":"Plot.plot({\n grid: true,\n width,\n x: {\n ticks: 20,\n },\n y: {\n ticks: 5,\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.line(calendar, {x: \"Days\", y: \"Lessons\"}),\n Plot.ruleY([0])\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1010,"value":"### Percentage of Burned Items","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":553,"value":"Plot.plot({\n grid: true,\n width,\n x: {\n ticks: 20,\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.areaY(calendar, {x: \"Days\", y: \"Burned %\"}),\n Plot.ruleY([0])\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":567,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":904,"value":"stageCalendar = {\n const res = [];\n for (const { 'By Stage': byStage, Days } of calendar) {\n for (const [stage, count] of byStage) {\n res.push({ Days, Stage: stage, Count: count });\n }\n }\n return res;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1021,"value":"levelUpDays = {\n const res = [];\n let level = 1;\n for (const event of calendar) {\n if (event.Level <= level) {\n continue;\n }\n level = event.Level;\n res.push({ Level: event.Level, Days: event.Days });\n }\n return res;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":996,"value":"levelUpTime = {\n let sum = 0;\n let count = 0;\n\n let last = 0;\n for (const { Days } of levelUpDays) {\n sum += Days - last;\n count++;\n last = Days;\n }\n\n return sum / count;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":846,"value":"CONFIG = {\n const RUNS_PER_DAY = LESSON_FREQUENCY * REVIEW_FREQUENCY / gcd.gcd(LESSON_FREQUENCY, REVIEW_FREQUENCY);\n const REVIEW_EVERY = RUNS_PER_DAY / REVIEW_FREQUENCY;\n const LESSON_EVERY = RUNS_PER_DAY / LESSON_FREQUENCY;\n\n return { RUNS_PER_DAY, LESSON_EVERY, REVIEW_EVERY };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":126,"value":"RADICALS= FileAttachment(\"radicals@1.json\").json()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":124,"value":"KANJI = FileAttachment(\"kanji@1.json\").json()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"VOCAB = FileAttachment(\"vocab@1.json\").json()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":410,"value":"KANJI_COUNT_BY_LEVEL = {\n const result = [];\n for (const { level } of KANJI) {\n while (level >= result.length) {\n result.push(0);\n }\n result[level]++;\n }\n return result;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":716,"value":"_Note that this might not be correct. I assume that you have complete 90% of kanji to level up_","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":430,"value":"LEVELUP_REQUIREMENT = KANJI_COUNT_BY_LEVEL.map(x => Math.ceil(x * 0.9))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":309,"value":"HOUR = 1","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":310,"value":"DAY = 24 * HOUR","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":313,"value":"WEEK = 7 * DAY","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":316,"value":"MONTH = 4 * WEEK","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":598,"value":"YEAR = 365 * DAY","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":222,"value":"GURU_STAGE = 5","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":922,"value":"STAGE_NAMES = ['None', 'Apprentice', 'Apprentice', 'Apprentice', 'Apprentice', 'Guru', 'Guru', 'Master', 'Enlightened', 'Burned', '?']","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":305,"value":"SRS_DELAYS = [0, 4 * HOUR, 8 * HOUR, DAY, 2 * DAY, WEEK, 2 * WEEK, MONTH, 4 * MONTH]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":324,"value":"SHORT_SRS_DELAYS = [0, 2 * HOUR, 4 * HOUR, 8 * HOUR, DAY, WEEK, 2 * WEEK, MONTH, 4 * MONTH]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":339,"value":"function getSRSDelaysByLevel(level) {\n if (level <= 2) {\n return SHORT_SRS_DELAYS;\n }\n return SRS_DELAYS;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":355,"value":"function getSRSPenaltyFactor(stage) {\n if (stage >= 5) {\n return 2;\n }\n return 1;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":160,"value":"ALL = [\n ...RADICALS.map(item => ({\n level: item.level,\n type: 'radical',\n order: 0,\n id: `r:${item.meaning}`,\n dependencies: [],\n })),\n ...KANJI.map(item => ({\n level: item.level,\n type: 'kanji',\n order: 1,\n id: `k:${item.meaning}`,\n dependencies: item.radicals.map(r => `r:${r.meaning}`),\n })),\n ...VOCAB.map(item => ({\n level: item.level,\n type: 'vocab',\n order: 2,\n id: `v:${item.meaning}`,\n dependencies: item.kanji.map(r => `k:${r.meaning}`),\n })),\n].sort((a, b) => a.level - b.level);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":177,"value":"ALL_BY_LEVEL = new Map(_.toPairs(_.groupBy(ALL, 'level')).map(([ x, y ]) => [ x - 0, y ]))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":202,"value":"ALL_BY_ID = {\n const result = new Map();\n\n for (const entry of ALL) {\n result.set(entry.id, entry);\n }\n \n return result;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":850,"value":"gcd = import(\"https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@algorithm.ts/gcd@3.1.1/+esm\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W31","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2f:"$2e:body"