2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"XYZ Hypothesis | Jerry Jäppinen | Observable"}] 32:T57c,experiments = { const data = []; const raw = _.values(dataInputs).map(p => p / 100); for (let i = 0; i < raw.length; ++i) { const result = raw[i]; const previousResult = i ? data[i - 1].weightedResult : 0; const relativeResult = result / x; // Reliability let reliability = 0; if (i) { reliability = 0.1; if (relativeResult >= 2) { reliability = 0.9; } else if (relativeResult >= 1) { reliability = 0.7; } else if (relativeResult >= 0.5) { reliability = 0.3; } } // Weighted result // For first experiment this is always set at 0.1 let weightedResult = 0; if (result) { weightedResult = 0.1; if (i) { weightedResult = result ? (previousResult * reliability) / (previousResult * reliability + (1 - previousResult) * (1 - reliability)) : 0; } } // Final verdict let verdict = 0; if (weightedResult >= 0.8) { verdict = 0.9; } else if (weightedResult >= 0.6) { verdict = 0.7; } else if (weightedResult >= 0.4) { verdict = 0.5; } else if (weightedResult >= 0.2) { verdict = 0.3; } else if (weightedResult) { verdict = 0.1; } data.push({ result, relativeResult, reliability, weightedResult, verdict }); } return data; }33:T4c9,getSimplifiedResultsTable = () => { return html`

${experiments.map((e, i) => { const n = i + 1; const ord = n === 1 ? "st" : n === 2 ? "nd" : n === 3 ? "rd" : "th"; const percentage = Math.round(e.verdict * 100); const color = e.verdict ? getColor(e.verdict) : "#fafafa"; return `

${ percentage ? `${percentage}%` : `–` }

After ${n}${ord}

experiment

`; })}

`; }34:[{"id":"0a2f3985ae40a97bec37a263dba44b6639b4737d1e2efff4a532941cd441b2816f2e75b9585dadd29f85423a592a9fd957c24f7b46ab839083291c543319b878","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/0a2f3985ae40a97bec37a263dba44b6639b4737d1e2efff4a532941cd441b2816f2e75b9585dadd29f85423a592a9fd957c24f7b46ab839083291c543319b878","name":"image@2.png","type":"image/png","lastModified":1727949044894.202,"size":148392}] 30:{"id":"d523fe14dd9b8e4e","slug":"xyz-hypothesis","title":"XYZ Hypothesis","thumbnail":"ed00f6d7d0e13d6d778e44ec2c6692b1e1e495cc297b63cede61a74c6d492457","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2023-02-10T14:36:39.208Z","update_time":"$D2025-02-14T15:01:14.039Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2023-02-10T14:36:39.208Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":6,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"78ae8536857bb3ab","login":"jerryjappinen","name":"Jerry Jäppinen","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/da68ef84738ce83ecc0aca0bac01d671eeaa7b46c1b3e4333452f0dc24a48f2f","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"Design, tech, engineering and science. UX and product consultant."},"version":1389,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"5e1c1d34cf3c138c","login":"jerryjappinen","name":"Jerry Jäppinen","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/da68ef84738ce83ecc0aca0bac01d671eeaa7b46c1b3e4333452f0dc24a48f2f","tier":null,"bio":"Design, tech, engineering and science. UX and product consultant."}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"5e1c1d34cf3c138c","login":"jerryjappinen","name":"Jerry Jäppinen","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/da68ef84738ce83ecc0aca0bac01d671eeaa7b46c1b3e4333452f0dc24a48f2f","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":5,"collection":{"id":"ebfbfde15b8aede9","slug":"highlighted","title":"Highlighted","owner":{"id":"78ae8536857bb3ab","login":"jerryjappinen","name":"Jerry Jäppinen"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"XYZ Hypothesis","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# XYZ Hypothesis","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":489,"value":"Business idea analysis from [The Right It](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sZMHAMN0DQ). Set your goal and hypothesis:","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"// Minimum market share\nviewof xPercent = Inputs.range([0, 100], {\n label: \"At least\",\n step: 1,\n value: urlParams.x ? Math.min(Math.max(parseInt(urlParams.x), 0), 100) : 20\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":83,"value":"// Target market\nviewof y = Inputs.text({\n label: \"percent of\",\n value: urlParams.y || \"Netflix DVD subscribers\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":88,"value":"// Hypothesis about what Y will do\nviewof z = Inputs.text({\n label: \"will\",\n value:\n urlParams.z || \"switch to a streaming-only subscription for $8.90 per month\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":901,"value":"_[Link to this hypothesis](${url})_","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":921,"value":"## Results","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":17,"value":"At least ${Math.round(x * 100)}% of ${y} will ${z}.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":22,"value":"viewof dataInputs = {\n const obj = _.keyBy(_.range(0, maxExperimentCount), (i) => \"experiment\" + i);\n const inputs = _.mapValues(obj, (i) => {\n const value = urlParams[\"e\" + (i + 1)]\n ? Math.min(Math.max(parseInt(urlParams[\"e\" + (i + 1)]), 0), 100)\n : 0;\n return Inputs.range([0, 100], {\n label: `Experiment ${i + 1} (%)`,\n step: 1,\n value\n });\n });\n\n return Inputs.form(inputs);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1306,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":531,"value":"html`${experimentCount ? ` Based on ${experimentCount} experiment${experimentCount > 1 ? 's' : ''}, the probability of success is ${ toPercentageString(probability) }` : `👆 Enter results from your experiments0%`}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1206,"value":"viewof resultsView = Inputs.radio([\"Simplified results\", \"Detailed results\"], { value: \"Simplified results\", disabled: !experimentCount })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1207,"value":"resultsView === 'Detailed results' ? getResultsTable() : getSimplifiedResultsTable()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1223,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":96,"value":"## Background","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1373,"value":"This notebook is based on a formula and video series by [Alberto Savoia](https://www.albertosavoia.com/resources.html), who is a product innovation consult and speaker.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1366,"value":"youtube(\"FVsLt9-m-zA\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":595,"value":"Alberto has a YouTube video series called [Math of Success](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLStagpRSnu69I60CxqiWcDHccEVVhuyyo) and a book called [The Right It](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sZMHAMN0DQ) where he presents the XYZ hypothesis and the math behind it. The formula is also available as an Excel version on his web site ([direct link](https://www.albertosavoia.com/uploads/1/4/0/9/14099067/simple_bayes_formula_for_product_manager.xlsx)).\n\nGet free book on [pretotyping.org](https://www.pretotyping.org/resources.html).\n\n[Thanks for the shout-out, Alberto](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/albertosavoia_xyz-hypothesis-activity-7031663726135058432-yh9x?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop).","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":95,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":174,"value":"### Source","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"probability = _.last(results) || 0","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":395,"value":"results = _.filter(_.map(experiments, 'verdict'))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1026,"value":"colors = results.map(getColor)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":216,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1007,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":989,"value":"Math behind this notebook. You don't have to worry about these.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"maxExperimentCount = 5","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":552,"value":"x = xPercent / 100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":402,"value":"experimentCount = results.length","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":995,"value":"colorValues = [\n '#ff205b',\n '#f1612d',\n '#de7e15',\n '#a9ad31',\n '#62d198'\n ]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":812,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":703,"value":"getColor = (val, max) => {\n const maxVal = max || 1;\n const r = val / maxVal;\n\n if (r < 0.3) {\n return colorValues[0]\n }\n\n if (r < 0.5) {\n return colorValues[1]\n }\n\n if (r < 0.7) {\n return colorValues[2]\n }\n\n if (r < 0.9) {\n return colorValues[3]\n }\n\n return colorValues[4]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1150,"value":"getResultsTable = () => {\n return Inputs.table(\n experiments.map((e, i) => {\n const data = { ...e }\n return {\n name: 'Experiment ' + (i + 1),\n ..._.omit(data, ['reliability'])\n };\n }),\n {\n format: {\n result: toPercentageString,\n relativeResult: toPercentageString,\n reliability: toPercentageString,\n weightedResult: toPercentageString,\n verdict (v) {\n if (v) {\n return html`${toPercentageString(v)} `\n }\n \n return '–'\n }\n }\n }\n )\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1034,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1258,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":861,"value":"url = makeUrl(liveUrlParams)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":846,"value":"liveUrlParams = {\n const experimentParams = {}\n\n for (let i = 0; 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