2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"Denver Derivative ASIC Price Explorer | jimbo the consensualist 🃏 | Observable"}] 31:T4cf,md`## How the Denver Derivative works The Denver Derivative (DD) provides rough guidance on the value of an ASIC miner, based on its characteristics and the historical hash price. That is, the revenue generated by miners on a per-terahash basis. **WARNING: past performance is no guarantee of future returns.** The following table quotes the interpretation from the [Bitcoin Magazine article](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/denver-derivative-bitcoin-asic-price): | DD | Interpretation | | --- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | >50 | If your power is less than ~$0.035 OR you’re going to run the ASIC for five-plus years. | | <50 | If your power is less than ~$0.055 OR you’re going to run the ASIC for four-plus years. | | <40 | If your power is less than ~$0.075 OR you’re going to run the ASIC for three-plus years. | | <30 | If your power is less than ~$0.125 OR you’re going to run the ASIC for three years. | | <20 | If your power is less than ~$0.15 OR you’re going to run the ASIC for two-plus years. | | <15 | Borrow to buy all the hardware (just kidding but not really). | The formula for computing the Denver Derivative (${tex`DD`}) is: `32:T18fe,// Given an array of miners, generate a plot of them. plotMiners = (miners) => { const height = 400; const margin = { top: 20, right: 0, bottom: 20, left: 30 }; const inset = { top: 20, right: 80, bottom: 20, left: 20 }; const svg = d3.select(DOM.svg(width, height)); const wattsExtent = d3.extent(miners, ({ watts }) => watts); const thExtent = d3.extent(miners, ({ th }) => th); const xScale = (logScale.includes("x-axis") ? d3.scaleLog() : d3.scaleLinear() ) .domain(wattsExtent) .range([margin.left, width - margin.left - margin.right]); xScale.domain([ xScale.invert(xScale.range()[0] - inset.left), xScale.invert(xScale.range()[1] + inset.right) ]); const yScale = (logScale.includes("y-axis") ? d3.scaleLog() : d3.scaleLinear() ) .domain(thExtent) .range([height - margin.bottom, margin.top]); yScale.domain([ yScale.invert(yScale.range()[0] + inset.bottom), yScale.invert(yScale.range()[1] - inset.top) ]); const colorScale = d3.scaleOrdinal(d3.schemeCategory10); // Background rect (interactivity target). const bgRect = svg .append("g") .append("rect") .attr("fill", "rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.01)") //.attr("fill", "yellow") .attr("x", xScale.range()[0]) .attr("y", margin.top) .attr("width", xScale.range()[1] - xScale.range()[0]) .attr("height", height - margin.top - margin.bottom); // X-axis. svg .append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(0, ${height - margin.bottom})`) .call( d3 .axisBottom(xScale) .ticks(width / 80) .tickSizeOuter(0) ); // Y-axis. svg .append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left}, 0)`) .call( d3 .axisLeft(yScale) .ticks(height / 40) .tickSizeOuter(0) ); // Curves. const curves = svg .append("g") .style("pointer-events", "none") .selectAll("g") .data( d3.cross(ddValues, [100, 1000, 10000, 100000], (dd, price) => ({ dd, price })) ) .join("g"); curves .selectAll("line") .data(({ dd, price }) => d3.pairs( xScale .ticks(100) .map((watts) => ({ watts, th: Math.sqrt((price * watts) / (dd * elongatedHashPrice)) })) .filter( ({ watts, th }) => watts > xScale.domain()[0] && watts < xScale.domain()[1] && th > yScale.domain()[0] && th < yScale.domain()[1] ) ) ) .join("line") .attr("stroke", "rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)") .attr("x1", ([{ watts }]) => xScale(watts)) .attr("y1", ([{ th }]) => yScale(th)) .attr("x2", ([_, { watts }]) => xScale(watts)) .attr("y2", ([_, { th }]) => yScale(th)); console.log(curves); // Dots. svg .append("g") .style("pointer-events", "none") .selectAll("circle") .data(miners) .join("circle") .attr("cx", ({ watts }) => xScale(watts)) .attr("cy", ({ th }) => yScale(th)) .attr("r", 4) .attr("fill", ({ vendor }) => colorScale(vendor)); // Labels. svg .append("g") .style("text-anchor", "start") .style("dominant-baseline", "middle") .style("pointer-events", "none") .selectAll("text") .data(miners) .join("text") .attr("x", ({ watts }) => xScale(watts) + 6) .attr("y", ({ th }) => yScale(th) + 1) .text(({ model }) => model); const overlay = svg.append("g").style("stroke", "rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3)"); const hLine = overlay .append("line") .attr("x1", margin.left) .attr("x2", width - margin.left - margin.right); const vLine = overlay .append("line") .attr("y1", margin.top) .attr("y2", height - margin.bottom); // Header for legend and hover info. const header = d3 .select(html`

`) .style("display", "flex") .style("flex-direction", "row") .style("flex-wrap", "wrap") .style("gap", "1em") .style("justify-content", "space-between"); // Legend. const vendors = d3 .rollup( miners, ({ length }) => length, ({ vendor }) => vendor ) .entries(); const legendItems = header .append("ul") .style("display", "flex") .style("flex-direction", "row") .style("flex-wrap", "wrap") .style("gap", "1em") .style("margin", 0) .style("padding", 0) .selectAll("li") .data(vendors) .join("li") .style("list-style-type", "none") .style("white-space", "nowrap"); legendItems .append("span") .style("display", "inline-block") .style("width", "1em") .style("height", "1em") .style("position", "relative") .style("top", "0.1em") .style("margin-right", "0.25em") .style("background-color", ([vendor]) => colorScale(vendor)); legendItems .append("span") .style("white-space", "nowrap") .text(([vendor, count]) => `${vendor} (${count})`); const info = header .append("div") .style("display", "flex") .style("flex-grow", 1) .style("flex-direction", "row") .style("flex-wrap", "wrap") .style("gap", "1em"); // Setup interactivity. bgRect.on("mousemove", (event) => { const [x, y] = d3.pointer(event, bgRect.node()); const watts = xScale.invert(x); const th = yScale.invert(y); hLine.attr("y1", yScale(th)).attr("y2", yScale(th)); vLine.attr("x1", xScale(watts)).attr("x2", xScale(watts)); const th2EhpPerWatts = (th * th * elongatedHashPrice) / watts; const entries = info .selectAll("div") .data([ ["watts", d3.format(".3r")(watts)], ["th", d3.format(".2r")(th)], ...d3 .sort( selectedDDColumns.map((dd) => +dd.substring(2)), d3.descending ) .map((dd) => [`dd${dd}`, ddFormat(dd * th2EhpPerWatts)]) ]) .join("div") .style("white-space", "nowrap") .html(": "); entries.select("strong").text(([label]) => label); entries.select("span").text(([_, value]) => value); }); // Create figure from components. const figure = html`

`; d3.select(figure) .style("font-family", '"DejaVu Sans", "Helvetica", "Arial", sans-serif') .style("font-size", "small"); figure.appendChild(header.node()); figure.appendChild(svg.node()); return figure; }33:T797,// Using the raw asset data as a starting point, compute derivitives. computedData = { const data = []; // Back index of the window for the elongated hash. let backIndex = 0; for (let frontIndex = 0; frontIndex < rawAssetData.length; frontIndex++) { const rawDatum = rawAssetData[frontIndex]; const datum = (data[frontIndex] = { time: rawDatum.time }); datum.date = new Date(datum.time); datum.year = datum.date.getUTCFullYear(); // Set block count and total (cumulative) block count. datum.blockCount = +rawDatum.BlkCnt; datum.totalBlockCount = datum.blockCount + (+data[frontIndex - 1]?.totalBlockCount || 0); // Set hash price and total (cumulative) hash price. datum.hashPrice = +rawDatum.RevHashRateUSD; datum.totalHashPrice = datum.hashPrice + (+data[frontIndex - 1]?.totalHashPrice || 0); // Advance backIndex until window just contains required number of blocks. while ( backIndex < frontIndex && datum.totalBlockCount - data[backIndex + 1].totalBlockCount > ELONGATED_HASH_PRICE_WINDOW_BLOCKS ) { backIndex++; } const backDatum = data[backIndex]; const blockRange = datum.totalBlockCount - backDatum.totalBlockCount; // Compute the number of blocks in the backIndex day which were overshot. const overBlocks = backDatum.blockCount - blockRange + ELONGATED_HASH_PRICE_WINDOW_BLOCKS; // Compute the proportion of the backIndex block which should be discounted. const overFrac = overBlocks / backDatum.blockCount; // Finally, estimate elongated hash price by taking the total over the whole // range and subtracting out the overshot portion of the backIndex block. datum.elongatedHashPrice = datum.totalHashPrice - data[backIndex].totalHashPrice - overFrac * backDatum.hashPrice; } return data; //.filter((d) => d.elongatedHashPrice && /^2022/.test(d.time)); }34:Tb22,// List of miners. Columns are: vendor, line, model, th, watts, starred. minersTable = [ ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S9", 13.5, 1160, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S9i", 13, 1120, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S9j", 14.5, 1190, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S9 SE", 16, 1280, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S9k", 13.5, 1150, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S9 Hydro", 18, 1475, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T9", 12.5, 1375, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T9+", 10.5, 1245, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S11", 20.5, 1530, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S15", 28, 1596, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T15", 23, 1541, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S17", 56, 2520, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S17 Pro", 53, 2094, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S17+", 73, 2920, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S17e", 64, 2880, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T17", 40, 2200, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T17+", 64, 3200, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T17e", 53, 2915, false], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S19", 95, 3250, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S19 Pro", 110, 3250, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S19j", 90, 3250, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S19j Pro", 100, 3050, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "S19 XP", 140, 3010, true], ["Bitmain", "Antminer", "T19", 84, 3150, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M10", 33, 2145, false], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M10S", 55, 3500, false], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M20S", 68, 3360, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M20S+", 78, 3430, false], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M21", 31, 1860, false], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M21S", 56, 3360, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M21S+", 62, 3350, false], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M30S", 86, 3268, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M30S+", 100, 3400, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M30S++", 112, 3472, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M31S", 70, 2940, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M31S+", 88, 3344, true], ["MicroBT", "Whatsminer", "M32S", 66, 3432, true], ["Canaan", "Avalon", "1047", 37, 2380, false], ["Canaan", "Avalon", "1066", 50, 3250, false], ["Canaan", "Avalon", "921", 20, 1700, false], ["Canaan", "Avalon", "841", 13.6, 1290, false], ["Canaan", "Avalon", "821", 11.5, 1200, false], ["Ebang", "Ebit", "E12", 44, 2500, false], ["Ebang", "Ebit", "E11++", 45, 1980, false], ["Ebang", "Ebit", "E12+", 50, 2500, false], ["Ebang", "Ebit", "E10", 18, 1650, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T3 39TH", 39, 2150, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T3 43TH", 43, 2100, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T3 50TH", 50, 3100, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T3+ 52TH", 52, 2800, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T3+ 57TH", 57, 3300, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T2 Turbo", 25, 2050, false], ["Innosilicon", null, "T2 Turbo+", 32, 2200, false] ]35:[] 2f:{"id":"49513add36b776c6","slug":"denver-derivative-asic-price-explorer","title":"Denver Derivative ASIC Price Explorer","thumbnail":"9231657a9c5d0379903164d28273064e55ebba94797d91685b1ec3d28d16b718","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2022-01-30T01:31:55.520Z","update_time":"$D2022-05-18T15:15:43.632Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2022-01-30T22:49:47.665Z","fork":{"id":"8a782eae82941842","slug":"denver-derivative-asic-price-charts","title":"Denver Derivative ASIC Price Charts","owner":{"id":"c59693e81648bf90","login":"jimbojw","name":"jimbo the consensualist 🃏"}},"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"c59693e81648bf90","login":"jimbojw","name":"jimbo the consensualist 🃏","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1f7a1307af61a3499fb9a9b09b672de153ed76d32c0e8c961b7981fe1057d50c","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":2343,"publish_version":2343,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"7b1a8c8bb2eb846c","login":"jimbojw","name":"jimbo the consensualist 🃏","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1f7a1307af61a3499fb9a9b09b672de153ed76d32c0e8c961b7981fe1057d50c","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"7b1a8c8bb2eb846c","login":"jimbojw","name":"jimbo the consensualist 🃏","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1f7a1307af61a3499fb9a9b09b672de153ed76d32c0e8c961b7981fe1057d50c","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":4,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Denver Derivative ASIC Price Explorer","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Denver Derivative ASIC Price Explorer\n\nThis notebook explores using the [Denver Derivative](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/denver-derivative-bitcoin-asic-price) to establish price ranges for ASIC miners.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1859,"value":"md`\n\nData source: [CoinMetrics](https://charts.coinmetrics.io/network-data/) community API. (As of ${computedData[\n computedData.length - 1\n].date.toLocaleDateString()})\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2040,"value":"viewof selectedMinerColumns = {\n const allMinerColumns = [\"vendor\", \"line\", \"model\", \"th\", \"watts\"];\n const mobileMinerColumns = [\"model\", \"th\"];\n return Inputs.checkbox(allMinerColumns, {\n label: \"Miner Columns\",\n value: width > 600 ? allMinerColumns : mobileMinerColumns\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2073,"value":"viewof selectedDDColumns = Inputs.checkbox(ddColumns, {\n label: \"DD Columns\",\n format: (dd) => html`${dd} (${ddLabels[dd]})`,\n value: width > 600 ? ddColumns : [\"dd30\"]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2056,"value":"viewof matchingMiners = Inputs.search(miners)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2033,"value":"viewof selectedMiners = Inputs.table(matchingMiners, {\n columns: [...selectedMinerColumns, ...selectedDDColumns],\n format: Object.fromEntries(ddValues.map((dd) => [`dd${dd}`, ddFormat])),\n value: matchingMiners.filter(({ popular }) => popular)\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2099,"value":"plotMiners(selectedMiners)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2104,"value":"viewof logScale = Inputs.checkbox([\"x-axis\", \"y-axis\"], { label: \"Log Scale\" })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1812,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1772,"value":"DD = {{Price \\times Watts} \\over {Th^2 \\times EHP}}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"tex","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1788,"value":"md`\nWhere:\n\n* ${tex`Price`} = the asking price of the ASIC.\n* ${tex`Watts`} = the wattage it draws.\n* ${tex`Th`} = the nominal terahash/s it produces.\n* ${tex`EHP`} = the Elongated Hash Price (earnings in dollars of 1Th over the last 50k blocks).\n\nSince the asking Price may not be known ahead of time, we can rearrange the formula to solve for price. That formula looks like this:\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1821,"value":"Price = {{DD \\times Th^2 \\times EHP} \\over {Watts}}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"tex","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1826,"value":"md`\nThe tables at the top of this notebook use this Price formula for each of the DD thresholds 50, 40, 30, 20 and 15.\n\n---\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1675,"value":"md`## Setup & Libraries\n\nYou can ignore everthing below this line. The following notebook cells are for reading data and setting up funcitons and parameters.\n\n---\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1940,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1971,"value":"ddValues = [15, 20, 30, 40, 50];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1975,"value":"ddMin = d3.min(ddValues)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1977,"value":"ddMax = d3.max(ddValues)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2075,"value":"ddColumns = d3.sort(ddValues, d3.descending).map((dd) => `dd${dd}`)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1987,"value":"elongatedHashPrice = computedData[computedData.length - 1].elongatedHashPrice","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1968,"value":"priceMin = d3.min(\n miners.map(({ th, watts }) => (ddMin * th * th * elongatedHashPrice) / watts)\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1994,"value":"priceMax = d3.max(\n miners.map(({ th, watts }) => (ddMax * th * th * elongatedHashPrice) / watts)\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1997,"value":"wattsMin = d3.min(miners, ({ watts }) => watts)\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2000,"value":"wattsMax = d3.max(miners, ({ watts }) => watts)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2003,"value":"thMin = d3.min(miners, ({ th }) => th)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2006,"value":"thMax = d3.max(miners, ({ th }) => th)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1966,"value":"variables = [\n { name: \"price\", domain: [priceMin, priceMax] },\n { name: \"dd\", domain: [ddMin, ddMax] },\n { name: \"watts\", domain: [wattsMin, wattsMax] },\n { name: \"th\", domain: [thMin, thMax] }\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1496,"value":"ELONGATED_HASH_PRICE_WINDOW_BLOCKS = 50000","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1498,"value":"// Load raw asset data from the CoinMetrics community API.\nrawAssetData = {\n const metrics = [\"BlkCnt\", \"RevHashRateUSD\"].join(\",\");\n const url = `https://community-api.coinmetrics.io/v4/timeseries/asset-metrics?page_size=10000&metrics=${metrics}&assets=btc`;\n const { data } = await (await fetch(url)).json();\n return data;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1511,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1596,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1623,"value":"miners = {\n return minersTable.map(([vendor, line, model, th, watts, popular]) => {\n const th2EhpPerWatts = (th * th * elongatedHashPrice) / watts;\n\n const dd = Object.fromEntries(\n d3\n .sort(ddValues, d3.descending)\n .map((dd) => [`dd${dd}`, dd * th2EhpPerWatts])\n );\n\n return {\n vendor,\n line,\n model,\n th,\n watts,\n ...dd,\n popular\n };\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1735,"value":"currencyFormat = d3.format(\"($,.0f\");","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1737,"value":"ddFormat = (n) => currencyFormat(+n.toPrecision(3))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":2119,"value":"// Informational labels for tooltips.\nddLabels = ({\n dd50: \"~$0.035/kWh | 5+yr\",\n dd40: \"~$0.055/kWh | 4+yr\",\n dd30: \"~$0.075/kWh | 3+yr\",\n dd20: \"~$0.125/kWh | 3yr\",\n dd15: \"~$0.15/kWh | 2yr\"\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":52,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W35","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 30:"$2f:body"