2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"Positive Under Pressure | John Knight | Observable"}] 31:T496,On July 8, 2023, the war in Ukraine entered its 500th day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the occasion with an [address from Snake Island](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zmiyinij-vilnij-ostriv-vilnoyi-ukrayini-zvernennya-prezident-84181). In the address Zelenskyy thanked everyone who has fought for Ukraine and made it clear that victory is certain. > _"Today, we honored here our Ukrainian heroes – all the soldiers who fought for this island, who liberated it. And although this is a small piece of land in the middle of our Black Sea, it is a great proof that Ukraine will regain every bit of its territory."_ Positive assurances like these are a tool that Zelenskyy uses repeatedly to give the Ukrainian people hope that the dark days are numbered, that their future is still bright. It's part of a larger strategy to use his platform to communicate with a suffering domestic audience and the world at large. During the first 500 days, between February 24, 2022 and July 8, 2023, Zelenskyy delivered a staggering **759 speeches**. He gave at least one speech on **485 of the 500 days** and sometimes as many as four speeches in a single day.32:T541,Plot.plot({ label: null, x: { axis: "top", label: "← negative · positive →", labelAnchor: "center", domain: [-5400, 5400] }, color: { legend: false, domain: ["positive", "negative"], range: ["#3BA4E9", "#808080"] }, marks: [ Plot.barX(sentimentImpact, { x: "impact", y: "lemma", fill: "category", sort: { y: "-x" } }), Plot.gridX({ stroke: "white", strokeOpacity: 0.5 }), d3 .groups(sentimentImpact, (d) => d.impact > 0) .map(([sent_pos_neg, lemmas]) => [ Plot.axisY({ x: 0, ticks: lemmas.map((d) => d.lemma), tickSize: 0, anchor: sent_pos_neg ? "left" : "right" }) // Plot.textX(lemmas, { // x: "impact", // y: "lemma", // text: ( // (f) => (d) => // f(d.impact) // )(d3.format(",.0f")), // textAnchor: sent_pos_neg ? "start" : "end", // dx: sent_pos_neg ? 4 : -4 // }) ]), Plot.ruleX([0]) // Plot.axisX({ // anchor: "top", // label: "← negative · positive →", // labelAnchor: "center", // labelOffset: 12, // ticks: [] // }) ], caption: "Note: units are based on the sentiment value multiplied by the frequency of the word." })33:T4af,Plot.plot({ marks: [ Plot.ruleX([0]), Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.line(sentimentPathFiltered, { x: "sentence_id", y: ".fitted", z: "id", stroke: "#3BA4E9", strokeWidth: 1.5, strokeOpacity: 0.1, tip: false }), Plot.dot(sentimentPathEndsFiltered, { x: "sentence_id", y: ".fitted", fill: "high_note", stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 0.2, r: 2, opacity: 1 }), Plot.axisX({ anchor: "bottom", label: "Sentence Number", labelAnchor: "right" //labelOffset: -90, //ticks: [] }), Plot.axisY({ anchor: "left", label: "← negative · Sentiment · positive →", labelAnchor: "center", labelOffset: 15, ticks: [] }) ], color: { legend: false, domain: ["TRUE", "FALSE"], range: ["#3BA4E9", "#808080"] }, x: { //label: "Sentence Number", domain: [0, 280] }, y: { //label: "Sentence Sentiment (Smoothed)", domain: [-9, 9] }, caption: "Note: sections of the two longest speeches beyond sentence 280 are not shown to improve clarity (both are positive).", width: 1000, marginLeft: 15 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2f:{"id":"a149a1a77a5beca2","slug":"positive-under-pressure","title":"Positive Under Pressure","thumbnail":"f39802d6dabe592261d35749823a9ff6942fc78473dead39707c1b0723e920ed","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2023-08-16T15:00:56.531Z","update_time":"$D2023-08-21T01:11:11.624Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2023-08-16T15:00:56.531Z","fork":true,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"67116e0bb5e2ed19","login":"john-h-knight","name":"John Knight","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/a3c7515028a00c0d4c8c7537d047c988bf1214f5e48bc7b2cee2d6c163664440","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1695,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"39ebdd9b8e757f07","login":"john-h-knight","name":"John 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War","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":327,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":606,"value":"

$\"Photo$

President Zelenskyy on Snake Island. (Credit: The Presidential Office of Ukraine)

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":319,"value":"**by John Knight**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":81,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":390,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":448,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1488,"value":"**Speeches per Day**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1452,"value":"Plot.plot({\n marks: [\n Plot.barX(speechesPerDay, {\n x: \"count\",\n y: \"per_day\",\n sort: { y: \"-y\" },\n fill: \"#3BA4E9\",\n tip: false\n }),\n Plot.text(speechesPerDay, {\n text: (d) => `${d.count} days`,\n x: \"count\",\n y: \"per_day\",\n textAnchor: \"start\",\n dx: 5,\n fontSize: \"12\",\n fontWeight: \"bold\",\n fill: \"black\"\n }),\n Plot.ruleX([0])\n ],\n x: { axis: null },\n y: { label: \"Number of Speeches\" },\n height: 200,\n marginTop: 5,\n marginBottom: 5,\n marginRight: 65\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":593,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":237,"value":"The speeches vary in length, as measured by word count. The average is **923 words**, which equates to about a seven-minute duration based on the [videos of Zelenskyy.](https://www.youtube.com/@PresidentGovUa) The shortest speech is a mere 100 words. The longest, over 9,100 words and lasting 1 hour 20 minutes, was an address to Ukraine's parliament on the 27th anniversary of the adoption of their Constitution in late June (not included in the chart below). ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1499,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1502,"value":"**Speech Length By Word Count**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1414,"value":"Plot.plot({\n marks: [\n Plot.ruleY([325]),\n Plot.dotX(\n speechesLength,\n Plot.dodgeY({\n x: \"words\",\n r: 2,\n fill: \"#3BA4E9\",\n anchor: \"middle\"\n })\n ),\n Plot.axisY({\n ticks: []\n })\n ],\n x: {\n label: \"Length (words)\",\n domain: [0, 5000]\n },\n color: { legend: true },\n height: 350,\n //width: 800,\n marginTop: 3,\n marginLeft: 3\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":370,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":155,"value":"Beyond the quantitative aspects of Zelenskyy's speeches, **nearly 75%** have a positive sentiment score, or emotional tone. Speeches with a negative sentiment score have become **less frequent** over time. This could be due to Ukraine's resilience and success in pushing Russian forces out of territory captured during the initial invasion. The two speeches with the highest positive sentiment score are also the two longest speeches. It's worth noting that both were delivered to Ukraine's parliament.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":584,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1528,"value":"**Sentiment Score by Speech**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1226,"value":"Plot.plot({\n marks: [\n Plot.ruleX(speeches, {\n x: \"id\",\n y: \"score\",\n stroke: \"sentiment\",\n tip: false\n }),\n Plot.axisY({\n anchor: \"left\",\n label: \"← negative · Sentiment Score· positive →\",\n labelAnchor: \"center\",\n labelOffset: 15,\n ticks: []\n }),\n Plot.axisX({\n anchor: \"bottom\",\n label: \"← older · Speech · newer →\",\n labelAnchor: \"center\",\n labelOffset: -90,\n ticks: []\n }),\n Plot.ruleY([0]),\n Plot.tip(\n speeches,\n Plot.pointer({\n x: \"id\",\n y: \"score\",\n title: (d) => [d.date, d.title].join(\"\\n\\n\")\n })\n )\n ],\n color: {\n legend: false,\n domain: [\"positive\", \"not positive\"],\n range: [\"#3BA4E9\", \"#808080\"]\n },\n //x: { label: \"Speech Number\" },\n y: { domain: [-450, 450] },\n width: 800,\n //caption: \"Note: each bar represents a single speech\",\n marginTop: 0,\n marginBottom: 0,\n marginLeft: 15\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":347,"value":"The sentiment of each speech is determined by the words that Zelenskyy chooses. The ten words that contribute the most to positive sentiment are shown in blue below. Collectively, they reflect Zelenskyy's **gratitude and optimism** throughout the 500 days. He is grateful for the service and sacrifices made by the Ukrainian people, as well as the material and political support provided by other countries. His optimism for the future of Ukraine is expressed with words like 'freedom' and 'peace'.\n\nYet, **25% of his speeches have a negative sentiment**. In these speeches words like the ten shown in gray below outweigh those in blue. Zelenskyy uses these words to speak plainly about the horrors of war playing out in their streets and towns.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":646,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1534,"value":"**Greatest Contributors to Sentiment Score**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":864,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":355,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":200,"value":"Examining sentiment _within_ each speech reveals further insight; Zelenskyy **usually ends on a high-note**. In the chart below each line represents one speech, and the path of the line indicates how the sentiment changes sentence by sentence. He begins his speeches with positive remarks, after which sentiment fluctuates up and down as he changes topics and tone. What is striking is that **over 95% of his speeches end positively**. This phenomenon further reflects Zelenskyy's ability to communicate the dark realities of the war while giving his people and allies hope for a peaceful future.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1061,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1560,"value":"**Sentiment \"Path\" Through Each Speech**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":522,"value":"viewof pickSpeech = Inputs.range([0, 759], {\n label: \"Speeches Displayed\",\n step: 1,\n value: 50\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1595,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1563,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1621,"value":"Each speech on it's own is a powerful message about the horrors of war and the sacrifices of his people. When examined in totality, its revealed that the speeches are overwhelmingly positive. It's unclear what the next 500 days will bring, but Zelenskyy's optimistic spirit will surely endure.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":89,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":472,"value":"## Appendix","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":478,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1652,"value":"- The R code used for this analysis is available in this GitHub repository: (https://github.com/john-h-knight/dav-capstone-ukraine-speeches)\n- All speeches from 2/24/2022 - 7/8/2023 can be found here: (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/speeches)\n- Sentiment analysis was conducted using the AFINN lexicon library: (https://www.tidytextmining.com/sentiment#the-sentiments-datasets)\n- Sentiment \"path\" graphic inspired by: (https://ghanadatastuff.com/post/text_analysis_covid/)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":474,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1192,"value":"// import csv exported from R\nspeeches = FileAttachment(\"speeches.csv\").csv({ typed: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1256,"value":"// import csv exported from R\nspeechesPerDay = FileAttachment(\"speeches_per_day.csv\").csv({ typed: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1418,"value":"speechesLength = speeches.filter((d) => d.id !== 746)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":527,"value":"// import csv exported from R\nsentimentImpact = FileAttachment(\"sentiment_impact.csv\").csv({ typed: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1275,"value":"// import csv exported from R\nsentimentPath = FileAttachment(\"sentiment_path.csv\").csv({ typed: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1280,"value":"// filter speeches using slider input\nsentimentPathFiltered = sentimentPath.filter((d) => d.id <= pickSpeech)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1303,"value":"// import csv exported from R\nsentimentPathEnds = FileAttachment(\"sentiment_path_ends.csv\").csv({\n typed: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1307,"value":"// filter speeches using slider input\nsentimentPathEndsFiltered = sentimentPathEnds.filter((d) => d.id <= pickSpeech)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 30:"$2f:body"