25:["$","title",null,{"children":"What's the Risk? | Kevin Perese | Observable"}] 4b:[] 47:{"id":"e0dc62130d8f7eb8","slug":"whats-the-risk","title":"What's the Risk?","thumbnail":"9eedcbefb0b39ae7d5840b01a9bd81a6de0f684ab80591b0ee199d0cc99b7d32","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-11-15T18:50:53.156Z","update_time":"$D2021-12-22T11:39:34.972Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-11-19T13:55:29.590Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"1339992d0aa77f13","login":"kevinxperese","name":"Kevin Perese","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/4c732d05ac7051c3b09a7f7e5bb547d6811a5044e7ce9f63713a8c7d4cbe9450","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"Economic demographer by training; data and coding nerd at heart.","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":309,"publish_version":309,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"fed9c6d72cf923a5","login":"kevinxperese","name":"Kevin Perese","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/4c732d05ac7051c3b09a7f7e5bb547d6811a5044e7ce9f63713a8c7d4cbe9450","tier":null,"bio":"Economic demographer by training; data and coding nerd at heart.","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"fed9c6d72cf923a5","login":"kevinxperese","name":"Kevin Perese","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/4c732d05ac7051c3b09a7f7e5bb547d6811a5044e7ce9f63713a8c7d4cbe9450","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"What's the Risk?","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# What's the Risk?\n\nThis notebook shows some basic (simplified) calculations to estimate how one's risk of exposure to COVID-19 changes depending on local positivity test rates and the number of people gathering in a group. \n\n**Note:** The inspiration for creating this came from this [Karl Broman tweet](https://twitter.com/kwbroman/status/1327327137888677889). \n\n## The Math\n${tex`p =`} the probability of being infected with COVID-19 (which can be proxied by the local area positivity test rate\\\\*) \n${tex`(1-p) =`} the probability of **not** being infected with COVID-19 \n\n${tex`n =`} the number of people gathering \n${tex`(1-p)^n =`} the probability that **no one** in a group of size ${tex`n`} is infected with COVID-19 \n${tex`1 -(1-p)^n =`} the probability that **at least *one* person** in a group of size ${tex`n`} is infected with COVID-19\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":130,"value":"html`
`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":65,"value":"md`## Test it Out`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":172,"value":"md`**Note:** You can find your county's positivity test rate at [CovidActNow](https://covidactnow.org/).`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"viewof p = slider({\n min: 0,\n max: 30,\n value: 5,\n step: 0.1,\n description: \"p: probability (%) of being infected with COVID-19\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"viewof n = slider({\n min: 1,\n max: 20,\n value: 8,\n step: 1,\n description: \"n: number of people gathering\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":301,"value":"html`
`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":138,"value":"html`

${risk}%

The probability that at least one person in a group of ${n} people from an area with a ${p}% positivity rate is infected with COVID-19.

Make informed decisions.

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":182,"value":"md`### \\\\* Caveats\n* Local area positivity rates are likely to be biased estimates of the true probability of infection within a county. That bias will vary from county-to-county and will depend on the number of asymptomatic cases that aren't getting tested, whether there are testing contraints in the county, and numerous other factors. For more details on problems with the test positivity rate, see [this](https://observablehq.com/d/e0dc62130d8f7eb8).\n\n* These calculations also assume that each individual's risk is independent and is equal to the overall county's positivity rate. Individual risks, however, are mostly likely clustered and depend on numerous factors, including: the number of social interactions an individual has recently had, whether all individuals wore masks during those interactions, the distance between individuals during interaction, as well as the setting and duration of those interactions.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":304,"value":"html`

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":72,"value":"md`****`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":214,"value":"color_slider = d3.interpolateRgb(\"blue\", \"red\")(risk/100*2)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":215,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":56,"value":"risk = Math.round((1 - (1 - p/100)**n)*100)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"import {slider} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W4b","stdlib":"1"}} 24:null