2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"COVID-19 Mortality by Age | Marko Lalovic | Observable"}] 33:T4ca,md`# Data Sources #### Infection Fatality Rates N. M. Ferguson, D. Laydon, G. Nedjati-Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, S. B. Marc Baguelin, A. Boonyasiri, Z. Cucunub, G. Cuomo-Dannenburg, A. Dighe, I. Dorigatti, H. Fu, K. Gaythorpe, W. Green, A. Hamlet, W. Hinsley, L. C. Okell, S. van Elsland, H. Thompson, R. Verity, E. Volz, H. Wang, Y. Wang, C. W. Patrick GT Walker, P. Winskill, C. Whittaker, C. A. Donnelly, S. Riley, and A. C. Ghani. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. Technical report, Imperial College, 3 2020. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf #### Case Fatality Rates M. Roser, H. Ritchie, E. Ortiz-Ospina, and J. Hasell. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – statistics and research. Our World in Data, 2020 (accessed May 27, 2020). https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus #### Life Expectancies Life tables by WHO, 2020 (accessed May 27, 2020). https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.LIFEREGIONGLOBAL?lang=en #### Demographics Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100, 2020 (accessed May 27, 2020). https://www.populationpyramid.net/ `34:Tda2,chart = { let svg = d3.selectAll('svg'); function numberWithCommas(x) { return x.toString().replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+(?!\d))/g, ","); } function textValue(d, i) { return `${d.name}: ${numberWithCommas(d.number)}` } const colors = ['#e0f3db','#a8ddb5','#43a2ca']; const transitionDuration = 200; function update(data) { const firstLine = 'Based on fatality rates from: ' + selectedSource + ' and age distribution in: ' + countries[selectedId].name + ' and other selected input ' const totalInfected = data.infectedData.reduce((a, b) => +a + +b.number, 0); const totalDeaths = data.deathsData.reduce((a, b) => +a + +b.number, 0); const totalYearsLost = data.yearsLost.reduce((a, b) => +a + +b, 0) const secondLine = 'parameters, we can expect: ' + numberFormatter(totalInfected) + ' infected and ' + numberFormatter(totalDeaths) + ' deaths or ' + numberFormatter(totalYearsLost) + ' years of life lost in: ' + countries[selectedId].name + '.'; const above = d3.select('svg.above'); const textAbove = above.selectAll('.text-above') .data([null]); const textAboveEnter = textAbove.enter() .append('text') .attr('class', 'text-above') .attr('transform', `translate(73, 13)`) .attr('x', 0) .attr('y', 0) .style('font-size', '14px') .style('font-weight', '600') .style('fill', 'rgba(72,72,72,1)') .style('font-family', 'Roboto, sans-serif'); textAboveEnter .merge(textAbove) .text(firstLine); const below = d3.select('svg.below'); const textBelow = below.selectAll('.text-below') .data([null]); const textBelowEnter = textBelow.enter() .append('text') .attr('class', 'text-below') .attr('transform', `translate(73, 13)`) .attr('x', 0) .attr('y', 0) .style('font-size', '14px') .style('font-weight', '600') .style('fill', 'rgba(72,72,72,1)') .style('font-family', 'Roboto, sans-serif'); textBelowEnter .merge(textBelow) .text(secondLine); const transition = svg.transition() .duration(transitionDuration) .ease(d3.easeLinear); d3.select('svg.infected').call(visualList, { dataList: data.infectedData, titleListName: 'Age', titleListNumber: 'Infected', titleListMain: 'Expected Number of Infected by Age', sortList: false, reverseRange: true, xValue: d => d.number, yValue: d => d.name, textValue: textValue, margin: { top: 70, right: 100, bottom: 0, left: 0, }, barPadding: .2, verticalSpacing: 55, transitionDuration: transitionDuration, colors }); d3.select('svg.deaths').call(visualList, { dataList: data.deathsData, titleListName: 'Age', titleListNumber: 'Deaths', titleListMain: 'Expected Number of Deaths by Age', sortList: false, reverseRange: true, xValue: d => d.number, yValue: d => d.name, textValue: textValue, margin: { top: 70, right: 100, bottom: 0, left: 0, }, barPadding: .2, verticalSpacing: 55, transitionDuration: transitionDuration, colors }); } return Object.assign(svg.node(), {update}); }35:T56c,data = { let infected = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]; let i = 0; for (i = 0; i < 6; i++) { infected[i] = Math.round( prElim * demographics[i] * pctU_below60 + (1 - prElim) * demographics[i] * pctH_below60); } // expected number of infected for (i = 6; i < 9; i++) { infected[i] = Math.round( prElim * demographics[i] * pctU_60plus + (1 - prElim) * demographics[i] * pctH_60plus); } // expected number of deaths let deaths = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]; for (i = 0; i < deaths.length; i++) { deaths[i] = Math.round( infected[i] * fatalities[i] / 100); } // expected years of life lost let yearsLost = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]; for (i = 0; i < deaths.length; i++) { yearsLost[i] = Math.round( deaths[i] * lifeExpectanciesGlobal[i] ); } let ageTypes = []; for (let i = 0; i < ageGroups.length; i++) { if (ageGroups[i].includes('80') || ageGroups[i].includes('70') || ageGroups[i].includes('60')) { ageTypes[i] = 'over60'; } else { ageTypes[i] = 'below60'; } } let infectedData = []; let deathsData = []; for (let i = 0; i < infected.length; i++) { infectedData[i] = { name: ageGroups[i], number: infected[i], type: ageTypes[i] }; deathsData[i] = { name: ageGroups[i], number: deaths[i], type: ageTypes[i] }; } return {infectedData, deathsData, yearsLost}; }36:[] 31:{"id":"f707c6718c324b3e","slug":"covid-calculator-mortality-by-age","title":"COVID-19 Mortality by Age","thumbnail":"51242077ed3863aac8cdf1933c57f1d595be58abe9efffd0890c6bb089585f0b","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-06-04T08:17:51.634Z","update_time":"$D2021-03-31T21:23:23.793Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-06-04T17:25:00.352Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"1d1a2582caf5fc60","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/16070004cabbc8527717f526f34d2f607b4d0d67a7bdabfe1fcce1b23904a308","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":702,"publish_version":702,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"070c06762986c2d4","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/16070004cabbc8527717f526f34d2f607b4d0d67a7bdabfe1fcce1b23904a308","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"070c06762986c2d4","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/16070004cabbc8527717f526f34d2f607b4d0d67a7bdabfe1fcce1b23904a308","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":4,"collection":{"id":"4759977c792f8dfd","slug":"calculus-of-covid-19","title":"COVID-19 Viz","owner":{"id":"1d1a2582caf5fc60","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"COVID-19 Mortality by Age","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# COVID-19 Mortality by Age`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":432,"value":"html`

\nSelect location: (The impact of COVID-19 varies between countries.)\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":49,"value":"viewof selectedCountry = autoSelect({\n options: countries.map(d => d.name),\n placeholder: 'World'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":440,"value":"html`

\nSelect infection rate: \n(Proportion of all people contracting the novel coronavirus.)\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":104,"value":"viewof pctH = slider({\n min: 0.01, \n max: 0.99, \n step: 0.01,\n value: 0.3, \n format: \".0%\",\n description: \"\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":443,"value":"html`

\nSelect over 60 infection rate: \n(Proportion of all people over the age of 60 contracting the novel coronavirus.)\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":177,"value":"viewof pctH_60plus = slider({\n min: lowerBound, \n max: upperBound,\n value: pctH,\n step: 0.01,\n format: \".0%\",\n description: \"\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":593,"value":"html`\n

\n(The proportion of people below 60 infected is then:\n${Math.round(pctH_below60 * 100)}\\%. Since it depends on both overall infection rate and infection rate of people over 60.)\n

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":141,"value":"html`

\n \n\n \n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":344,"value":"html`\n

\n \n

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":445,"value":"html`

\nVary fatality rates: \n(Try increasing the risk of deaths, e.g. to 50%, for low-income country or overwhelmed healthcare. Or decreasing, e.g. to -50%, for expected improved treatments and better healthcare.)\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":185,"value":"viewof pctOfChange = slider({\n min: -1, \n max: 1, \n value: 0,\n step: 0.01,\n format: \".0%\",\n description: \"\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":448,"value":"html`

\nProbability of eliminating COVID-19: \n(Probability of achieving complete elimination of COVID-19 disease before it manages to infect ${Math.round(pctH * 100)}\\% of population.)\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":204,"value":"viewof prElim = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1, \n value: 0,\n step: 0.01,\n format: \".0%\",\n description: \"\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":450,"value":"html`
\nInfection rate until elimination:\n(Proportion of population that still gets infected even in the event of achieving complete elimination. Note: First increase the probability of elimination for this parameter to take effect.)\n
`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":189,"value":"viewof pctU = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: pctH,\n value: 0,\n step: 0.01,\n format: \".0%\",\n description: \"\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":437,"value":"html`
\nFatality rates:\n(Select estimates of risk of death from infection with the novel coronavirus. Estimates vary between countries and over time. Wider testing can reduce CFR estimates.)\n
`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"viewof selectedSource = select(\n [\"Imperial College - IFR\", \n \"China CDC - CFR\", \n \"Korea CDC - CFR\", \n \"JAMA Italy - CFR\",\n \"MISAN Spain - CFR\"])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":691,"value":"md`# About\nThis is part of visualizations I made to explore and analyze the potential impacts of COVID-19. \n\nMore visualizations in a visual tool are accessible here: [https://markolalovic.com/covid-calc/](https://markolalovic.com/covid-calc/)\n\nFor technical details please refer to: [notes](https://markolalovic.github.io/covid-calc/notes.html) or to the: [source code](https://github.com/markolalovic/covid-calc)\n\nClick here to share this notebook on: ${shareTweet(document.baseURI, {\n buttonText: \"Twitter\",\n text: \"@ObservableHQ notebook : COVID-19 Mortality by Age\",\n hashtags: \"COVID19,dataviz\",\n via: \"MarkoLalovic\"\n})}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":654,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":510,"value":"md`# Calculations`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":113,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":89,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":114,"value":"chart.update(data)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":269,"value":"demographics = countries[selectedId].demographics;","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":296,"value":"popSize = demographics.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":293,"value":"d_60plus = (demographics[6] + demographics[7] + demographics[8]) / popSize; // prop 60+","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":282,"value":"lowerBound = Math.max( 0.01, (pctH - (1 - d_60plus)) / d_60plus);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":291,"value":"upperBound = Math.min( pctH / d_60plus, 0.99 );","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":302,"value":"ageGroups = ['0-9', '10-19', '20-29', '30-39', '40-49', '50-59', '60-69', '70-79', '80+'];","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":305,"value":"lifeExpectanciesGlobal = [71.625, 62.950, 53.550, 44.400, 35.375, 26.625, 18.600, 11.950, 6.975];","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":308,"value":"fatalitiesBaseline = fatalityRates[selectedSourceId].ftr;","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":311,"value":"fatalities = fatalitiesBaseline.map( fat => (fat * (1 + pctOfChange)) );","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":314,"value":"pctH_below60 = (pctH - pctH_60plus * d_60plus) / (1 - d_60plus);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":320,"value":"// proportion of 60+ people that are infected until elimination\npctU_60plus = (pctH_60plus / pctH) * pctU;","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":318,"value":"// pct of people below 60 infected until elimination\npctU_below60 = (pctU - pctU_60plus * d_60plus) / (1 - d_60plus); ","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":207,"value":"fatalityRates = [\n {\"id\": 0,\n \"source\": \"Imperial College - IFR\",\n \"ftr\": [0.002, 0.006, 0.03, 0.08, 0.15, 0.6, 2.2, 5.1, 9.3] },\n {\"id\": 1,\n \"source\": \"China CDC - CFR\",\n \"ftr\": [0, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 1.3, 3.6, 8, 14.8] },\n {\"id\": 2,\n \"source\": \"Korea CDC - CFR\",\n \"ftr\": [0, 0, 0, 0.11, 0.08, 0.5, 1.8, 6.3, 13] },\n {\"id\": 3,\n \"source\": \"JAMA Italy - CFR\",\n \"ftr\": [0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.4, 1, 3.5, 12.8, 20.2] },\n {\"id\": 4,\n \"source\": \"MISAN Spain - CFR\",\n \"ftr\": [0, 0, 0.22, 0.14, 0.3, 0.4, 1.9, 4.8, 15.6] },\n];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":45,"value":"md`# Imports and Functions`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":694,"value":"import {shareTweet} from \"@pierreleripoll/share-on-twitter-button\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":87,"value":"import { visualList } from \"caa532788db12ca5\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":101,"value":"import {slider} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":47,"value":"import {autoSelect} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":254,"value":"import {select} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":411,"value":"// for formatting big numbers for totals\nfunction numberWithCommas(x) {\n return x.toString().replace(/\\B(?=(\\d{3})+(?!\\d))/g, \",\");\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":409,"value":"function numberISO(x) {\n return d3.format('.3s')(x)\n .replace('G', 'B');\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":406,"value":"function numberFormatter(x) {\n if (x < Math.pow(10, 6)) {\n return numberWithCommas(x);\n } else {\n return numberISO(x);\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":27,"value":"selectedId = getCountryId(selectedCountry);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":66,"value":"function getCountryId(selectedCountry) {\n for (var i=0; i < countries.length; i++) {\n if (countries[i].name === selectedCountry) {\n return countries[i].id;\n }\n }\n return 163; // world is the default location\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"selectedSourceId = getSourceId(selectedSource);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":231,"value":"function getSourceId(selectedSource) {\n for (var i=0; i < fatalityRates.length; i++) {\n if (fatalityRates[i].source === selectedSource) {\n return fatalityRates[i].id;\n }\n }\n return 0; // IFR are default fatality rates\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":557,"value":"html``","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":21,"value":"md`# Load Data`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"countries = {\n const {countries} = await d3.json(\"https://gist.githubusercontent.com/markolalovic/f29f8677d8edc386fd0630d499e98422/raw/bc21f5f68daa554a9ed56763521a89beb9095bea/countries.JSON\");\nreturn countries; \n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"