2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"Projections of Extreme Poverty Due to COVID-19 - in the Spring of 2020 | Marko Lalovic | Observable"}] 33:Te05,{ let caption = html``; if (selected === 0) { return html`

Projected increases by country due to coronavirus impact on the world economy in the

number of people living in extreme poverty, that is an income below the international

poverty line of $1.90 per day. Sources: IMF, POVCAL and authors calculations.

` } else { return html`

Projected increases by country due to coronavirus impact on the world economy in the

number of people living in extreme poverty, that is an income below the international

poverty line of $1.90 per day. Sources: IMF, POVCAL and authors calculations.

` } }34:T494,md` ## References [1] IMF, 2020 (accessed May 27, 2020). https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/April/English/execsum.ashx?la=en. [2] World Bank, 2020 (accessed May 27, 2020). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?locations=1W&start=1981&end=2015&view=chart [3] National Accounts Data used in Global Poverty Measurement Espen Beer Prydz, Dean Jolliffe, Christoph Lakner, Daniel Gerszon Mahler and Prem Sangraula. March 2019. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/664751553100573765/pdf/135460-WP-PUBLIC-Disclosed-3-21-2019.pdf [4] The impact of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on global poverty: Why Sub-Saharan Africa might be the region hardest hit Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, R. Andres Castaneda Aguilar, Haoyu Wu. April 2020. https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/impact-covid-19-coronavirus-global-poverty-why-sub-saharan-africa-might-be-region-hardest [5] Turning back the Poverty Clock: How will COVID-19 impact the world's poorest people? Homi Kharas, Kristofer Hamel. May 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/05/06/turning-back-the-poverty-clock-how-will-covid-19-impact-the-worlds-poorest-people/ `35:T737,chart = { let svg = d3.select('svg'); // Projected Poverty Increases by Country and Region const mainProjCountries = 'Potential Millions Pushed Into Extreme Poverty \ Due to COVID-19 by Country'; const nameProjCountries = 'Country'; const numberProjCountries = 'People'; const mainProjRegions = 'Potential Millions Pushed Into Extreme Poverty \ Due to COVID-19 by Region'; const nameProjRegions = 'Region'; const numberProjRegions = 'People'; // color countries by regions // 'Sub-Saharan Africa', 'South Asia', 'East Asia & Pacific', // 'Latin America & Caribbean', 'Middle East & North Africa', 'Europe & Central Asia', 'North America' const colorsProjRegions = ['#e41a1c','#377eb8','#4daf4a','#984ea3','#ff7f00','#ffff33','#a65628']; const colorsProjCountries = [colorsProjRegions[1], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[1], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[2], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[0], colorsProjRegions[0]]; const options = ['Country', 'Region']; const colorsList = [colorsProjCountries, colorsProjRegions]; function update(data) { svg.call(visualList, { dataList: data[selected], titleListName: options[selected], titleListNumber: 'People', titleListMain: 'Potential Millions Pushed Into Extreme Poverty \ Due to COVID-19 by ' + options[selected], sortList: true, reverseRange: false, xValue: d => d.number, yValue: d => d.name, margin: { top: 70, right: 220, bottom: 0, left: 90, }, barPadding: .2, verticalSpacing: 55, transitionDuration: 200, colors: colorsList[selected] }); } return Object.assign(svg.node(), {update}); }36:T535,data = { // poverty increases by country: const povertyProjCountryNames = [ 'India', 'Nigeria', 'Democratic Republic of the Congo', 'Ethiopia', 'Bangladesh', 'Tanzania', 'Madagascar', 'Indonesia', 'Kenya', 'Mozambique', 'Uganda', 'South Africa' ]; const povertyProjCountryNumbers = [8784000, 5023850, 2842320, 1604720, 1221500, 1139840, 976040, 927000, 915720, 897520, 821600, 721050]; let povertyProjCountries = [] for (let i = 0; i < povertyProjCountryNames.length; i++) { povertyProjCountries[i] = { name: povertyProjCountryNames[i], number: povertyProjCountryNumbers[i], type: 'poverty' }; } // poverty increases by region: const povertyProjRegionNames = [ 'Sub-Saharan Africa', 'South Asia', 'East Asia & Pacific', 'Latin America & Caribbean', 'Middle East & North Africa', 'Europe & Central Asia', 'North America']; const povertyProjRegionNumbers = [21994380.0, 10619000.0, 2294580.0, 1796560.0, 867540.0, 665690.0, 313600.0]; let povertyProjRegions = [] for (let i = 0; i < povertyProjRegionNames.length; i++) { povertyProjRegions[i] = { name: povertyProjRegionNames[i], number: povertyProjRegionNumbers[i], type: 'poverty' }; } return [povertyProjCountries, povertyProjRegions]; }37:[] 31:{"id":"b7e3fcc7082c0c6e","slug":"covid-calculator-poverty-projections","title":"Projections of Extreme Poverty Due to COVID-19 - in the Spring of 2020","thumbnail":"7db4148a3af3c39e9b60dba21c68f0098ed44154458b130db0924aced7f7411f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-06-10T20:03:11.041Z","update_time":"$D2021-03-31T20:22:26.935Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-06-10T21:08:53.092Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"1d1a2582caf5fc60","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/16070004cabbc8527717f526f34d2f607b4d0d67a7bdabfe1fcce1b23904a308","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":161,"publish_version":161,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"070c06762986c2d4","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/16070004cabbc8527717f526f34d2f607b4d0d67a7bdabfe1fcce1b23904a308","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"070c06762986c2d4","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/16070004cabbc8527717f526f34d2f607b4d0d67a7bdabfe1fcce1b23904a308","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":{"id":"4759977c792f8dfd","slug":"calculus-of-covid-19","title":"COVID-19 Viz","owner":{"id":"1d1a2582caf5fc60","login":"markolalovic","name":"Marko Lalovic"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Projections of Extreme Poverty Due to COVID-19 - in the Spring of 2020","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Projections of Extreme Poverty Due to COVID-19 - in the Spring of 2020`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":33,"value":"viewof selected = compareOptions()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"html`\n

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`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":95,"value":"md`# Calculations`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":100,"value":"md`\nWe take the difference between the IMF’s GDP growth forecasts [1] for April 2020 and forecasts from October 2019. We take estimates from 2015 from the World Bank [2] of how many people lived in extreme poverty (income below $1.9 per day) by country. Then estimate the projected poverty increases by country by multiplying this number and minus the difference in GDB growth forecasts.\n\nFor example in Nigeria the difference between IMF’s GDP growth forecasts is –5.9 percent and World Bank estimated that there were 85.15 million people living in extreme poverty in 2015. So we estimate there will be 85.15M (5.9/100) ≈ 5.02M additional people living in extreme poverty in Nigeria due to COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nNote that this are crude estimats of COVID-19 effect on poverty because not only COVID-19 pandemic has caused the IMF to alter its forecasts. Also we extrapolate the poverty estimates to 2020.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":107,"value":"md`# About\nThis is part of visualizations I made back in the spring of 2020 to explore and analyze the potential impacts of COVID-19. More visualizations in a visual tool are accessible here: [https://markolalovic.com/covid-calc/](https://markolalovic.com/covid-calc/)\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"md`# Imports and Functions`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":27,"value":"$35","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":155,"value":"md`# Data`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":10,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":35,"value":"compareOptions = () => {\n const buttons = html`\n \n `\n buttons.value = 0\n\n buttons.country.onclick = event => {\n buttons.value = 0;\n event.preventDefault();\n buttons.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\")); \n }\n buttons.region.onclick = event => {\n buttons.value = 1;\n event.preventDefault();\n buttons.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\")); \n }\n \n return buttons\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"import { visualList } from \"caa532788db12ca5\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"chart.update(data)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":23,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W37","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"