28:null 29:["$","title",null,{"children":"Encuestas de intención de voto | Mauricio Foronda | Observable"}] 2e:T4aa,viewof panoramaPlot = { const tipo_colores = { validos: "line", otros: "lineSoft", nulo: "white" }; return Plot.plot({ height: 200, marginLeft: 0, marginTop: 10, x: { ticks: 5, label: null, tickSize: 0 }, y: { axis: "right", ticks: 5, label: null, tickSize: 0, tickFormat: d3.format(".0%") }, style: { color: colors.frame, }, marks: [ Plot.areaY(panorama, { x: "mes", y: "resultado", fill: d => colors[tipo_colores[d.tipo]], fillOpacity: .8, sort: "mes", offset: "normalize", order: "-appearance", curve: "basis" }), Plot.gridY({ ticks: 5, color: "white", strokeOpacity: .5, strokeWidth: 1 }), Plot.gridX({ ticks: 5, color: "white", strokeOpacity: .5, strokeDasharray: "1,3", strokeWidth: 1 }), Plot.ruleX(panorama, Plot.pointerX({ x: 'mes', py: 'resultado', stroke: "white", strokeOpacity: 0.6, strokeWidth: 4 }) ), ] }) }2f:T544,validPlot ? htl.html`

${candidato}

${d3.format(".0%")(validPlot.resultado)}

resultado

${dateFormatter.format(validPlot.mes)}

mes

${validPlot.nombre}

empresa

${validPlot.cobertura.length > 50 ? validPlot.cobertura.slice(0, 50) + "…" : validPlot.cobertura}

cobertura

${validPlot.muestra} personas

muestra

${d3.format(".0%")(validPlot.margen_error)}

margen de error

` : htl.html`

${candidato}

`30:T668,viewof validPlot = { const formatter = d3.format(".0%"); const yTicks = 5; return Plot.plot({ height: 400, x: { domain: timeDomain, tickSize:0, label: null }, y: { domain: pollDomain, axis: null, }, color: { domain: [0, 5e3], type: "linear", scheme: "RdPu", }, style: { color: colors.frame, }, marks: [ Plot.gridY({ ticks: yTicks, strokeDasharray: "1,3", strokeOpacity: .5 }), Plot.axisY({ ticks: yTicks, anchor: "right", textAnchor: "end", tickSize: 0, dx: -10, dy: -6, lineAnchor: "bottom", tickFormat: formatter, label: null }), Plot.areaY(ponderado, { x: "mes", y1: "bottom", y2: "top", fill: colors.frame, fillOpacity: .1, curve: "cardinal", }), Plot.line(ponderado, { x: "mes", y: "resultado", curve: "cardinal", stroke: colors.line, strokeWidth: 1.5, strokeOpacity: .5 }), Plot.dot(seleccion, { x: "mes", y: "resultado", fill: colors.frame, fillOpacity: .08, r: d => d.margen_error ** 8, }), Plot.dot(seleccion, { x: "mes", y: "resultado", fill: "muestra", r: 3, stroke: colors.frame, strokeWidth: 1, }), Plot.dot(seleccion, Plot.pointer({ x: "mes", y: "resultado", r: 4, stroke: colors.line, strokeWidth: 3, })), ] }) }31:T76e,32:[] 2c:{"id":"a34b75effce17ebc","slug":"encuestas-2025","title":"Encuestas de intención de voto","thumbnail":"f2945b020db1c705fb4be1574795601a5e64f1bf43b93ccdaa9bfcb755b9eeb8","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2025-06-02T14:11:30.506Z","update_time":"$D2025-08-11T23:21:36.778Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2025-06-03T14:31:57.486Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"475974948549302f","login":"mauforonda","name":"Mauricio Foronda","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/4cc3af3b792916571df54649e193dbdbf80a875b4e37b1def6ecb0480c561075","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1084,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"018969b4abf63b07","login":"mauforonda","name":"Mau Foronda","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/513f52feadea4c57a52e2ab0f2fbdad66bf45a132acf7f9fbb19eb61e86e345f","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"018969b4abf63b07","login":"mauforonda","name":"Mau Foronda","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/513f52feadea4c57a52e2ab0f2fbdad66bf45a132acf7f9fbb19eb61e86e345f","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"team","id":"475974948549302f","login":"mauforonda","name":"Mauricio Foronda","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/4cc3af3b792916571df54649e193dbdbf80a875b4e37b1def6ecb0480c561075","tier":"starter_2024","role":"viewer"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Encuestas de intención de voto","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Encuestas de intención de voto\n## hacia las elecciones nacionales 2025","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":828,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":906,"value":"

\n ¿Qué porcentaje de respuestas representarían votos válidos?\n

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":873,"value":"htl.html`\n

\n ${legend}\n

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":770,"value":"$2e","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":696,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":920,"value":"

\n ¿Qué dice cada encuesta sobre cada candidato?\n

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":968,"value":"viewof filtro_habilitados = Inputs.toggle({label: \"Habilitados\", value: true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":564,"value":"html`

${viewof candidato}

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":581,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":443,"value":"htl.html`\n

${validGhosts}

${viewof validPlot}

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":688,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":698,"value":"

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","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":709,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":139,"value":"// sheetID = \"1N_qG8lFTYI6_0sNLc764U82-EIxFMeDXeJBCs_kGNpw\"\nsheetID = \"16PKFNnPQgTffNXNuwBtqTAfahHWzZtEpvwB50BXrKwo\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":135,"value":"async function getHTML(url) {\n const sheet = await fetch(url)\n .then(response => {\n if (!response.ok) throw new Error(response.status);\n return response.text();\n })\n const parser = new DOMParser();\n const html = parser.parseFromString(sheet, \"text/html\");\n const data = Array.from(html.querySelectorAll(\"tr\")).map(row => Array.from(row.querySelectorAll(\"td\")).map( cell => cell.textContent));\n const valid = data.filter(row => row.some(field => field.trim() != \"\"));\n return valid\n} ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":141,"value":"function makeURL(sheetID, range=\"\") {\n const rangeValue = range != \"\" ? `&range=${range}` : \"\"\n return `https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/${sheetID}/gviz/tq?tqx=out:html${rangeValue}`\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":149,"value":"async function getMonths() {\n \n function inferMonth(dateString, prev=\"\") {\n if (dateString.includes(\"-\")) {\n const [month, year] = dateString.split(\"-\");\n return new Date(`${month} 1, ${year}`);\n } else {\n return prev\n }\n };\n\n function inferMonths(validStrings) {\n let prevMonth = \"\";\n let months = [];\n validStrings.forEach(d => {\n const month = inferMonth(d, prevMonth);\n prevMonth = month;\n months.push(month);\n });\n return months;\n };\n\n const url = makeURL(sheetID, \"B1:AAA2\");\n const response = await getHTML(url);\n const row = response[0]\n const months = inferMonths(row);\n return months\n \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":189,"value":"encuestas = {\n const months = await getMonths();\n const names = await getHTML(\n makeURL(sheetID, \"B2:AAA3\")\n );\n const samples = await getHTML(\n makeURL(sheetID, \"B4:AAA6\")\n );\n \n let data = [];\n \n months.forEach((month, i) => {\n const encuesta = ({\n nombre: names[0][i],\n cobertura: names[1][i],\n mes: month,\n muestra: Number(samples[0][i]),\n confianza: Number(samples[1][i].replace(\"%\", \"\")) / 100,\n margen_error: Number(samples[2][i].replace(\"%\", \"\")) / 100\n });\n data.push(encuesta)\n });\n \n return data\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"resultados = {\n const tabla = await getHTML(makeURL(sheetID, \"A7:AAA1000\"));\n let data = [];\n for (const row of tabla) {\n const candidato = row[0].trim();\n if (candidato != \"TOTAL\") {\n for (const [i, encuesta] of encuestas.entries()) {\n const entry = ({\n candidato: candidato,\n resultado: row[i + 1].trim() == \"\" ? null : Number(row[i + 1]) / 100,\n ...encuesta\n })\n data.push(entry)\n }\n } else {\n break;\n }\n }\n return data\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":299,"value":"ponderados = Object.values(\n resultados.filter(r => r.resultado).reduce((acc, { candidato, mes, resultado, muestra, margen_error }) => {\n const key = `${candidato}_${mes}`;\n acc[key] ??= { candidato, mes, total: 0, weight: 0, errores: [] };\n acc[key].total += resultado * muestra;\n acc[key].weight += muestra;\n acc[key].errores.push({ resultado, margen_error, muestra });\n return acc;\n }, {})\n).map(({ candidato, mes, total, weight, errores }) => {\n const resultado = total / weight;\n const top = Math.max(...errores.map(e => e.resultado + e.margen_error));\n const bottom = Math.min(...errores.map(e => e.resultado - e.margen_error));\n return { candidato, mes, resultado, top, bottom };\n});","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":767,"value":"panorama = {\n\n const tipos = [\"validos\", \"otros\", \"nulo\"];\n \n const grouped = Object.values(\n ponderados.reduce((acc, { candidato, mes, resultado }) => {\n const tipo = validos.includes(candidato)\n ? \"validos\"\n : otros.includes(candidato)\n ? \"otros\"\n : nulo.includes(candidato)\n ? \"nulo\"\n : null;\n if (!tipo) return acc;\n const key = `${tipo}_${mes}`;\n acc[key] ??= { tipo, mes, resultado: 0 };\n acc[key].resultado += resultado;\n return acc;\n }, {})\n )\n \n const meses = [...new Set(ponderados.map(d => d.mes))];\n \n return meses.flatMap(mes =>\n tipos.map(tipo =>\n grouped.find(g => g.tipo === tipo && g.mes === mes) ?? { tipo, mes, resultado: 0 }\n )\n );\n \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":740,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":417,"value":"otros = [\n \"Nuevo de la oposición\",\n \"Otro de oposición\",\n \"Candidato de oposición\",\n \"Otros\",\n \"Candidatos marginales\",\n \"Nuevo no más\",\n \"Nuevo\",\n \"Nuevo del MAS\",\n \"Candidato oficialista\",\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":418,"value":"nulo = [\n \"NS/NR\",\n \"Blanco\",\n \"Ninguno\",\n \"Nulo\",\n \"No contesta\",\n \"Indecisos\",\n \"Voto secreto\",\n \"Blanco/Nulo\",\n \"Ninguno/Blanco/Nulo\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":420,"value":"validos = [...new Set(resultados.map(d => d.candidato))].filter(e => !otros.includes(e) && !nulo.includes(e)).filter(c => (resultados.filter(r => r.candidato == c && r.resultado != null)).length > 0)\n .sort((a, b) => {\n const getLast = c => (resultados.filter(r => r.candidato == c && r.resultado != null).slice(-1)[0]).resultado;\n return getLast(b) - getLast(a);\n })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":964,"value":"habilitados = [\n \"Samuel Doria Medina\",\n \"Jorge Tuto Quiroga\",\n \"Andrónico Rodríguez\",\n \"Manfred Reyes Villa\",\n \"Rodrigo Paz\",\n \"Eduardo Del Castillo\",\n \"Jhonny Fernández\",\n \"Eva Copa\",\n \"Pavel Aracena\"\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":396,"value":"pollDomain = [0, Math.max(...resultados.filter(p => validos.includes(p.candidato)).map(s => s.resultado)) * 1.05]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":371,"value":"timeDomain = {\n const lag = (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24 * 60);\n const start = encuestas[0].mes.getTime() - lag;\n const end = encuestas.slice(-1)[0].mes.getTime() + lag;\n return [new Date(start), new Date(end)]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":748,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":278,"value":"colors = ({\n frame: \"#96948f\",\n frameFocus: \"#5e5a56\",\n line: \"#c95c47\",\n lineSoft: \"#deae99\",\n white: \"#f0e6df\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":974,"value":"candidatos = filtro_habilitados ? habilitados : validos","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":553,"value":"viewof candidato = Inputs.radio(candidatos, {\n value: \"Andrónico Rodríguez\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":303,"value":"ponderado = ponderados.filter(r => r.candidato == candidato)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":254,"value":"seleccion = resultados.filter(r => r.candidato == candidato && r.resultado != null)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":584,"value":"dateFormatter = new Intl.DateTimeFormat('es', { year: 'numeric', month: 'long', timeZone: \"UTC\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":257,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":415,"value":"validGhosts = {\n const formatter = d3.format(\".0%\");\n const yTicks = 5;\n const ponderadosValidos = ponderados.filter(p => validos.includes(p.candidato));\n \n return Plot.plot({\n height: 400,\n marginLeft: 20,\n marginRight: 40,\n marginTop: 25,\n marginBottom: 30,\n x: {\n domain: timeDomain,\n axis: null,\n },\n y: {\n domain: pollDomain,\n axis: null,\n },\n style: {\n color: colors.frame,\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.line(ponderadosValidos, {\n x: \"mes\",\n y: \"resultado\",\n z: \"candidato\",\n curve: \"cardinal\",\n stroke: colors.frame,\n strokeWidth: .3,\n strokeOpacity: .5,\n }),\n ]\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":703,"value":"mensaje = md`actualizado [directamente](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16PKFNnPQgTffNXNuwBtqTAfahHWzZtEpvwB50BXrKwo/gviz/tq?tqx=out:html) con [datos recolectados por la FES](https://www.ded.bo/elecciones/generales-2025/)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":864,"value":"import {Swatches} from \"@d3/color-legend\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":867,"value":"legend = Swatches(d3.scaleOrdinal([\"candidatos nombrados\", \"otros candidatos\", \"blanco o nulo\"], [colors.line, colors.lineSoft, colors.white]), {\n columns: \"140px\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":446,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W32","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2d:"$2c:body"