2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"(Old) Kaggle brackets for March Madness | Mark McClure | Observable"}] 32:T72c,topmatter = md`[Kaggle](https://www.kaggle.com/) runs an annual March Madness competition where competitors use data science to make predictions about the NCAA tournament. It's a little deeper than the standard bracket, though, since (in true stastistical fashion) we assess the *probability* of a particular outcome for each game. Once the game is played, your score is assessed using the [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score). This web page allows you to visualize the Brier score throughout your bracket. You can start easy by choosing an example from the Examples menu. The bracket should appear with the games shaded according to the quality of the predictions. Green is good, red is bad, and almost white is near the middle. You can also project to see how the predictions think the tournament might play out. The "Experts Median" example is a [submission file provided by Kaggle](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/march-machine-learning-mania-2023/discussion/395317) where each record represents a median prediction from a pool of "experts" who have scored well in past iterations of this competition. The "Five Thirty Eight" example is computed from [FiveThirtyEight ratings](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-march-madness-predictions/), as compiled by [a fellow Kaggler](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/march-machine-learning-mania-2023/discussion/388323). Once you have the FiveThirtyEight ratings, predictions are easy to compute since they're designed to satisfy [a formula described on this web page](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-march-madness-predictions-work-2/): ${tex.block`\text{P(Team 1 beats Team 2)} = \frac{1}{1+10^{-30.464(r_1 - r_2)/400}}.`} If you have your own submission for the 2023 competition, then you can click the "Browse" button to upload it. `33:T647,input = { let div = d3.create("div"); div.append("h4").text("Examples"); let sample_file = div.append("select"); let init_option = sample_file .append("option") .property("value", "none") .text(" --- "); sample_file .append("option") .property("value", "filtered_experts_median") .text("Experts Median"); sample_file .append("option") .property("value", "FiveThirtyEight") .text("Five Thirty Eight"); sample_file.on("change", async function () { let v = sample_file.property("value"); let csv_text; if (v == "filtered_experts_median") { Promises.delay() .then(async function () { csv_text = await FileAttachment( "FilteredExpertsMedianSubmission.csv" ).text(); }) .then(function () { set_setup(csv_text); }); } else if (v == "FiveThirtyEight") { Promises.delay() .then(async function () { csv_text = await FileAttachment( "FiveThirtyEightPredictions.csv" ).text(); }) .then(function () { set_setup(csv_text); }); } file_input.node().value = null; init_option.node().disabled = true; }); div.append(() => sample_file.node()); let file_input = div .append("input") .attr("type", "file") .style("margin-left", "5px"); file_input.node().addEventListener( "change", function () { sample_file.property("value", "none"); let ff = this.files[0]; ff.text().then((o) => set_setup(o)); }, false ); return div.node(); }34:T613,## Comments This is a bit of a work in progress since the Kaggle competition format changed this year. I've got a few more things that I'd like to do but will probably not be able to until after the tournament is complete. The focus of the bracket visualizer is not really to project teams up the bracket - rather it's to indicate the quality of your predictions via the shading and tooltip. In the default viewing mode, with no projection, that's all that is shown. You can choose to project, though. Here are some details on how projection works: * You can choose to project * *From Current*, which projects from the current state of the tournament and is only relevant while the tournament is running, or * *From beginning*, to see how things would've panned out in your perfect (or totally imperfect) world. * The projection type can be * *Best*, which projects the team that contributes least to your Brier score, or * *Worst*, which projects the team that contributes most to your Brier score. * In all situations, the displayed Brier score is based on the shaded games. The Best/Worst switch allows you estimate your best or worse possible scores. * In 50-50 games, the Best/Worst projection is based on the `slot` variable in the Kaggle data. * Projected games are shaded blue and darker shading indicates more confidence. * The displayed "score" of a projected game reflects the probability assigned to that game. For example, if I predict that UNC beats Duke with 99% confidence, the displayed score will be 99-1.35:T86e,function make_brackets() { let div = d3 .create("div") .style("width", div_width + "px") .style("height", div_height + "px") .style("position", "relative"); let svg = div .append("svg") .attr("width", div_width) .attr("height", div_height) .style("width", div_width + "px") .style("height", div_height + "px") .style("position", "absolute"); // Draw connectors on the SVG background svg .selectAll("path.link") .data(tourney_tree.links()) .join("path") .attr("class", function (d) { let label = "link"; if ( d.target.data.WTeam && d.target.data.LTeam && d.source.data.WTeam && d.source.data.LTeam && (d.target.data.WTeam.TeamID == d.source.data.WTeam.TeamID || d.target.data.WTeam.TeamID == d.source.data.LTeam.TeamID) ) { label = label + " Team" + d.target.data.WTeam.TeamID; } return label; }) .attr("stroke", "black") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("fill", "none") .attr("d", connector); // Place the games as absolutely positioned DIVs div .selectAll("div.game") .data(tourney_tree.descendants()) .enter() .append((d) => game_container(d)); // Highlight a team's path through the tournament // on mouseenter. div .selectAll(".team") .on("mouseenter", function () { if (setup && setup.predictions) { let class_label = d3.select(this).attr("class").split(" ")[2]; div.selectAll(".team." + class_label).style("background-color", "#dd2"); div .selectAll(".game." + class_label) .style("border", "solid 3px black"); svg.selectAll(".link." + class_label).attr("stroke-width", 3); } }) .on("mouseleave", function () { let class_label = d3.select(this).attr("class").split(" ")[2]; div .selectAll(".team." + class_label) .style("background-color", "rgba(204,204,204,0)"); div.selectAll(".game." + class_label).style("border", "solid 1px black"); svg.selectAll(".link." + class_label).attr("stroke-width", 1); }); return div.node(); }36:T1026,// Each game displayed in the brackets is contained in a DIV that's // built by this function. function game_container(game) { let top_team, bot_team; if (game.data.WTeam) { if (game.data.WTeam.pos == "top") { top_team = game.data.WTeam; } else if (game.data.WTeam.pos == "bot") { bot_team = game.data.WTeam; } } if (game.data.LTeam) { if (game.data.LTeam.pos == "top") { top_team = game.data.LTeam; } else if (game.data.LTeam.pos == "bot") { bot_team = game.data.LTeam; } } let shade = "#ddd"; if ( game.data.played && game.data.WTeam && game.data.LTeam && game.data.WTeam.win & (game.data.WTeam.score > 1) ) { let pred = get_predicted_probability( game.data.WTeam.TeamID, game.data.LTeam.TeamID ); if (pred >= 0.5) { shade = d3.interpolateGreens(1.5 * (pred - 0.5)); } else if (pred < 0.5) { shade = d3.interpolateReds(1.5 * (0.5 - pred)); } } else if ( game.data.projected // game.data.WTeam && // game.data.LTeam && // game.data.WTeam.win & (game.data.WTeam.score > 1) ) { let pred = get_predicted_probability( game.data.WTeam.TeamID, game.data.LTeam.TeamID ); if (pred >= 0.5) { shade = d3.interpolateBlues(1.5 * (pred - 0.5)); } else if (pred < 0.5) { shade = d3.interpolateBlues(1.5 * (0.5 - pred)); } } let div = d3 .create("div") .attr("class", "game-container") .style("background-color", shade) .style("width", function () { if (game.data.round == 6) { return 1.4 * team_width + "px"; } else { return team_width + "px"; } }) .style("height", function () { if (game.data.round == 6) { return 1.4 * game_height + "px"; } else { return game_height + "px"; } }) .style("left", function () { if (game.data.round == 6) { return (game.x2 - 0.2 * team_width).toString() + "px"; } else { return game.x2 + "px"; } }) .style("top", function () { if (game.data.round == 6) { return (game.y2 - 0.2 * game_height).toString() + "px"; } else { return game.y2 + "px"; } }) .style("border", "solid 0.5px black") .style("position", "absolute"); div.append(() => team_container(top_team, game.data.round, "top_team")); div.append(() => team_container(bot_team, game.data.round, "bot_team")); if ( setup && setup.predictions && game.data.WTeam && game.data.WTeam.win && game.data.LTeam // && game.data.WTeam.score > 1 ) { let pred = get_predicted_probability( game.data.WTeam.TeamID, game.data.LTeam.TeamID ); let game_brier_score = (1 - pred) ** 2; tippy(div.node(), { theme: "light", content: `Prediction: ${game.data.WTeam.TeamName} beats ${ game.data.LTeam.TeamName } with probabiltiy ${format(pred)} for a Brier score of ${format( game_brier_score )}.` }); } else if ( setup && setup.predictions && game.data.WTeam && game.data.WTeam.win && game.data.LTeam && game.data.WTeam.score == 1 ) { tippy(div.node(), { theme: "light", content: "Game cancelled" }); } else if ( setup && setup.predictions && game.data.WTeam && game.data.WTeam.TeamID && game.data.LTeam && game.data.LTeam.TeamID && !game.data.WTeam.win ) { let pred = get_predicted_probability( game.data.WTeam.TeamID, game.data.LTeam.TeamID ); tippy(div.node(), { content: `Prediction: ${game.data.WTeam.TeamName} beats ${ game.data.LTeam.TeamName } with probabiltiy ${format(pred)}.`, theme: "light", }); } // cmd-click on an unplayed game to copy a result template to update the result file div.on("click", function (evt) { if (evt.metaKey) { let result_text = `2022,,${game.data.WTeam.TeamID},WS,${game.data.LTeam.TeamID},LS,, ${game.data.WTeam.TeamName}, ${game.data.LTeam.TeamName}`; pbcopy(result_text); } }); return div.node(); }37:T6a8,// Each game_container contains two team_containers // They're displayed slightly differently depending on // round and whether they're on the top or bottom (tb). function team_container(team, round, tb) { let div = d3 .create("div") .style("background", "rgba(204, 204, 204, 0)") .attr("class", function (d) { let label = "team " + tb + " "; if (team && team.TeamID) { label = label + "Team" + team.TeamID; } if (round == 6) { label = label + " championship"; } return label; }); // Round 1 games display the seed and might have a play-in to highlight. if (round == 1) { let seed_span = div .append("span") .style("color", "black") .text(team.seed + " "); if (setup && setup.predictions && team.playin) { seed_span.style("color", "blue"); let title = "Play-in info
"; title = title + `${team.TeamName}: ${team.playin.score}
`; title = title + `${team.playin.playin_opponent_name}: ${team.playin.playin_opponent_score}`; // seed_span.attr('title', title); // tippy(seed_span.node()); tippy(seed_span.node(), { theme: "light", content: title, allowHTML: true }); } } // Add name and score let team_display; if (setup && setup.predictions) { if (team && team.TeamNames && team.score == 0) { team_display = team.TeamNames; } else if (team) { team_display = team.TeamName; } div.append("span").style("color", "black").text(team_display); if (team && team.score) { div.append("span").attr("class", "score").text(team.score); } } return div.node(); }38:T72b,function connector(link) { if (link.target.data.round >= 2) { let x1 = link.source.x2; let y1 = link.source.y2; let x2 = link.target.x2; let y2 = link.target.y2; let xx1, yy1, xx2, yy2; let path; // We can tell whether we're linking up or down by // comparing expected seeds. let [seed1, seed2] = link.target.data.expected_seeds; // Upper links if (seed1 < seed2) { // Left half of bracket if (link.target.data.region == 'W' || link.target.data.region == 'Y') { xx1 = x1 + team_width / 2; yy1 = y1; xx2 = x2 + team_width; yy2 = y2 + game_height / 2; path = [[xx1, yy1], [xx1, yy2], [xx2, yy2]]; return d3.line()(path); } // Right half of bracket else if ( link.target.data.region == 'X' || link.target.data.region == 'Z' ) { xx1 = x1 + team_width / 2; yy1 = y1; xx2 = x2; yy2 = y2 + game_height / 2; path = [[xx1, yy1], [xx1, yy2], [xx2, yy2]]; return d3.line()(path); } } // Lower links else { // Left half of bracket if (link.target.data.region == 'W' || link.target.data.region == 'Y') { xx1 = x1 + team_width / 2; yy1 = y1 + game_height; xx2 = x2 + team_width; yy2 = y2 + game_height / 2; path = [[xx1, yy1], [xx1, yy2], [xx2, yy2]]; return d3.line()(path); } // Right half of bracket else if ( link.target.data.region == 'X' || link.target.data.region == 'Z' ) { xx1 = x1 + team_width / 2; yy1 = y1 + game_height; xx2 = x2; yy2 = y2 + game_height / 2; path = [[xx1, yy1], [xx1, yy2], [xx2, yy2]]; return d3.line()(path); } } } else { return null; } }39:T779,function horizontal_rescaler(d) { let region = d.data.region; let scaler; let s = 3; // A small amount to shift round 2 games // Upper right if (region == 'X' || region == 'WX') { if (d.data.round == 2) { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([ 0.5 * div_width - 1.5 * team_width - s, div_width - team_width - s ]); } else { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * div_width - 1.5 * team_width, div_width - team_width]); } } // Upper left else if (region == 'W') { if (d.data.round == 2) { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * (div_width + team_width) + s, s]); } else { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * (div_width + team_width), 0]); } } // Lower left else if (region == 'Y' || region == 'YZ') { if (d.data.round == 2) { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * (div_width + team_width) + s, s]); } else { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * (div_width + team_width), 0]); } } // Lower right else if (region == 'Z') { if (d.data.round == 2) { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([ 0.5 * div_width - 1.5 * team_width - s, div_width - team_width - s ]); } else { scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * div_width - 1.5 * team_width, div_width - team_width]); } } else if (region == 'CH') scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, div_width]) .range([0.5 * (div_width - team_width), 0]); return scaler(d.y); }3a:T477,function vertical_rescaler(d) { let region = d.data.region; // Upper left if (region == 'W') { let scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([-0.25 * div_height, 0.25 * div_height]) .range([div_height - game_height / 2, -game_height / 2]); return scaler(d.x); } // Upper right else if (region == 'X') { let scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([0, 0.5 * div_height]) .range([div_height - game_height / 2, -game_height / 2]); return scaler(d.x); } // Lower left else if (region == 'Y') { let scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([div_height * 0.5, div_height]) .range([div_height - game_height / 2, -game_height / 2]); return scaler(d.x); } // Lower right else if (region == 'Z') { let scaler = d3 .scaleLinear() .domain([div_height * 0.75, 1.25 * div_height]) .range([div_height - game_height / 2, -game_height / 2]); return scaler(d.x); } else if (region == 'WX') { return 0.4 * div_height; } else if (region == 'YZ') { return 0.6 * div_height; } else if (region == 'CH') { return 0.5 * div_height; } }3b:T24fa,tourney = { // Start with a basic nested JSON tree down // to the regional finals. let tourney = { region: "CH", round: 6, expected_seeds: [1, 1], children: [ { region: "WX", round: 5, expected_seeds: [1, 1], children: [ { region: "W", round: 4, expected_seeds: [1, 2] }, { region: "X", round: 4, expected_seeds: [1, 2] } ] }, { region: "YZ", round: 5, expected_seeds: [1, 1], children: [ { region: "Y", round: 4, expected_seeds: [1, 2] }, { region: "Z", round: 4, expected_seeds: [1, 2] } ] } ] }; // Now we'll just use a basic tree-traversal technique // to continue down to round 1 // let game_cnt = 1; let stack = [ tourney.children[0].children[0], tourney.children[0].children[1], tourney.children[1].children[0], tourney.children[1].children[1] ]; while (stack.length > 0) { let node = stack.pop(); let high_seed = node.expected_seeds[0]; let new_low_seed = 2 ** (5 - node.round + 1) - high_seed + 1; let child0 = { region: node.region, expected_seeds: [high_seed, new_low_seed], round: node.round - 1 }; let low_seed = node.expected_seeds[1]; let lower_seed = 2 ** (5 - node.round + 1) - low_seed + 1; let child1 = { region: node.region, expected_seeds: [lower_seed, low_seed], round: node.round - 1 }; node.children = [child0, child1]; // If round > 2, then we'll just push both // new empty nodes to the stack. We don't yet // know whose playing in those games. if (node.round > 2) { stack.push(child0); stack.push(child1); } // If round == 2, then the children will be in round 1 // so we can look up the game result. else { Object.assign(child0, round1_info(child0)); Object.assign(child1, round1_info(child1)); } } // At this point, the tree structure of the tournament is // constructed but we need to re-traverse to get game results. // More long and complicated than it needs to be since choosing // "winners" depends on projection and projection_type. Probably // need to consolidate code into some resuable functions. stack = [tourney]; while (stack.length > 0) { let node = stack.pop(); if (node.visits == 1) { node.visits = 2; } else { node.visits = 1; } let [child0, child1] = node.children; let team0, team1; if (child0.WTeam && child0.WTeam.win) { team0 = Object.assign({}, child0.WTeam); delete team0.win; delete team0.score; team0.pos = get_pos(team0.seed, node.round, team0.slot[0]); node.WTeam = team0; // Arbitrary, for now } if (child1.WTeam && child1.WTeam.win) { team1 = Object.assign({}, child1.WTeam); delete team1.win; delete team1.score; team1.pos = get_pos(team1.seed, node.round, team1.slot[0]); node.LTeam = team1; // Arbitrary, for now } // Traversing for final time to get results. if (team0 && team1) { if (projection == "None") { let scores = get_scores(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); team0.score = scores[0]; team1.score = scores[1]; let wTeam, lTeam; if (team0.score > team1.score) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.LTeam = team1; node.played = true; node.projected = false; } else if (team0.score < team1.score) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; node.played = true; node.projected = false; } else { node.played = false; node.projected = false; } } else if (projection == "From current" && projection_type == "Best") { let scores = get_scores(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); if (scores[0] != 0) { team0.score = scores[0]; team1.score = scores[1]; node.played = true; node.projected = false; let wTeam, lTeam; if (team0.score > team1.score) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.LTeam = team1; } else if (team0.score < team1.score) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; } } else { let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); node.played = false; node.projected = true; let wTeam, lTeam; if (pab < 0.5) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * pab); } else if (pab > 0.5) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.LTeam = team1; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * (1 - pab)); } else { if (team0.TeamID > team1.TeamID) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = 50; node.LTeam = team1; node.LTeam.score = 50; } else { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.WTeam.score = 50; node.LTeam = team0; node.LTeam.score = 50; } } } } else if (projection == "From beginning" && projection_type == "Best") { let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); node.played = false; node.projected = true; let wTeam, lTeam; if (pab < 0.5) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * pab); } else if (pab > 0.5) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); node.LTeam = team1; node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * (1 - pab)); } else { if (team0.TeamID > team1.TeamID) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = 50; node.LTeam = team1; node.LTeam.score = 50; } else { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.WTeam.score = 50; node.LTeam = team0; node.LTeam.score = 50; } } } else if (projection == "From current" && projection_type == "Worst") { let scores = get_scores(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); if (scores[0] != 0) { team0.score = scores[0]; team1.score = scores[1]; let wTeam, lTeam; node.played = true; node.projected = false; if (team0.score > team1.score) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.LTeam = team1; } else if (team0.score < team1.score) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; } } else { let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); node.played = false; node.projected = true; let wTeam, lTeam; if (pab > 0.5) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * pab); } else if (pab < 0.5) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.LTeam = team1; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * (1 - pab)); } } } else if (projection == "From beginning" && projection_type == "Worst") { let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); node.played = false; node.projected = true; let wTeam, lTeam; if (pab > 0.5) { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.LTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * pab); } else if (pab < 0.5) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.LTeam = team1; node.WTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); node.LTeam.score = Math.floor(100 * (1 - pab)); } else { if (team0.TeamID < team1.TeamID) { team0.win = true; node.WTeam = team0; node.WTeam.score = 50; node.LTeam = team1; node.LTeam.score = 50; } else { team1.win = true; node.WTeam = team1; node.WTeam.score = 50; node.LTeam = team0; node.LTeam.score = 50; } } } } if (node.visits == 1) { stack.push(node); if (node.round > 2) { stack.push(child0); stack.push(child1); } } } return tourney; }3c:T1254,// The info that we need for round 1 function round1_info(o) { let team0 = get_team(o.region, o.expected_seeds[0]); let team1 = get_team(o.region, o.expected_seeds[1]); let scores = get_scores(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); let played, projected; team0.score = scores[0]; team0.pos = get_pos(team0.seed, 1); team1.score = scores[1]; team1.pos = get_pos(team1.seed, 1); let wTeam, lTeam; if (projection == "None") { projected = false; if (team0.score > team1.score) { wTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team1; played = true; } else if (team0.score < team1.score) { wTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team0; played = true; } else { wTeam = team0; wTeam.win = false; lTeam = team1; played = false; } } else if (projection == "From current" && projection_type == "Best") { let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); if (team0.score > team1.score) { wTeam = team0; lTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; played = true; projected = false; } else if (team0.score < team1.score) { wTeam = team1; lTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; played = true; projected = false; } else if (pab < 0.5) { wTeam = team1; lTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); played = false; projected = true; } else if (pab > 0.5) { wTeam = team0; lTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); played = false; projected = true; } else { wTeam = team0.TeamID > team1.TeamID ? team0 : team1; lTeam = team1.TeamID > team0.TeamID ? team0 : team1; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = 50; lTeam.score = 50; played = false; projected = true; } } else if (projection == "From beginning" && projection_type == "Best") { played = false; projected = true; let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); if (pab < 0.5) { wTeam = team1; lTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); } else if (pab > 0.5) { wTeam = team0; lTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); } else { wTeam = team0.TeamID > team1.TeamID ? team0 : team1; lTeam = team1.TeamID > team0.TeamID ? team0 : team1; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = 50; lTeam.score = 50; } } else if (projection == "From current" && projection_type == "Worst") { let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); if (team0.score > team1.score) { wTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team1; played = true; projected = false; } else if (team0.score < team1.score) { wTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team0; played = true; projected = false; } else if (pab > 0.5) { wTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team0; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); played = false; projected = true; } else if (pab < 0.5) { wTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team1; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); played = false; projected = true; } else { wTeam = team0.TeamID < team1.TeamID ? team0 : team1; lTeam = team1.TeamID < team0.TeamID ? team0 : team1; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = 50; lTeam.score = 50; } } else if (projection == "From beginning" && projection_type == "Worst") { played = false; projected = true; let pab = get_predicted_probability(team0.TeamID, team1.TeamID); if (pab > 0.5) { wTeam = team1; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team0; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); } else if (pab < 0.5) { wTeam = team0; wTeam.win = true; lTeam = team1; wTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); lTeam.score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); } else { wTeam = team0.TeamID < team1.TeamID ? team0 : team1; lTeam = team1.TeamID < team0.TeamID ? team0 : team1; wTeam.win = true; wTeam.score = 50; lTeam.score = 50; } } return { WTeam: wTeam, LTeam: lTeam, played, projected, log_loss }; }3d:T405,// Get the place of a team in a game_container on either the top or bottom // as a function of its seed and round. // It's a kinda fun fact that the position can be computed as a function of // the binary expansion of the seed-1 and the round number. function get_pos(seed, round, region) { let s; if (typeof seed == 'number') { s = seed; } else { s = parseInt(seed.slice(1, 3)); } if (round <= 4) { let n; if (s % 2 == 1) { n = (s - 1) / 2; } else { n = 16 - s / 2; } let bits = n.toString(2).padStart(4, '0'); let bit = bits[round - 1]; if (bit == '0') { return 'top'; } else { return 'bot'; } } else { if ((region == 'W' || region == 'Y') && round == 5) { return 'top'; } else if ((region == 'X' || region == 'Z') && round == 5) { return 'bot'; } else if ((region == 'W' || region == 'X') && round == 6) { return 'top'; } else if ((region == 'Z' || region == 'Y') && round == 6) { return 'bot'; } } }3e:Tfec,// Look up a team based on its region and seed function get_team(region, expected_seed) { let slot, teamID, teamName, teamNames; let playin = false; if (expected_seed < 10) { slot = region + "0" + expected_seed.toString(); } else { slot = region + expected_seed.toString(); } let seed = seeds[display].map((d) => d.Seed).indexOf(slot); if (seed > -1) { teamID = seeds[display][seed].TeamID; teamName = team_map.get(teamID); } // The data expresses round 1 seeds mostly just as you'd expect. // In the case of a play-in game, there's an 'a' or 'b' appended to // the two seeds you'd expect to find. Thus, if we didn't find the // seed above that means we've got a play-in game. We'll display // just the winner but include the results of the playin via a tooltip. else { let seeda = seeds[display].map((d) => d.Seed).indexOf(slot + "a"); let seedb = seeds[display].map((d) => d.Seed).indexOf(slot + "b"); if (seeda > -1) { let playin_opponentID, playin_opponent_name, playin_opponent_score, score; let teamIDa = seeds[display][seeda].TeamID; let teamNamea = team_map.get(teamIDa); let teamIDb = seeds[display][seedb].TeamID; let teamNameb = team_map.get(teamIDb); if (projection == "None" || projection == "From current") { let scores = get_scores(teamIDa, teamIDb); if (scores[0] < scores[1]) { teamName = teamNameb; teamID = teamIDb; score = scores[1]; playin_opponentID = teamIDa; playin_opponent_name = teamNamea; playin_opponent_score = scores[0]; } else if (scores[0] > scores[1]) { teamName = teamNamea; teamID = teamIDa; score = scores[0]; playin_opponentID = teamIDb; playin_opponent_name = teamNameb; playin_opponent_score = scores[1]; } else { teamName = teamNamea; score = 0; playin_opponent_name = teamNameb; playin_opponent_score = 0; playin_opponentID = teamIDb; if (projection == "None") { teamNames = teamNamea + "/" + teamNameb; } } if (projection == "From current" && scores[0] == 0) { let pab = get_predicted_probability(teamIDa, teamIDb); if ( (pab < 0.5 && projection_type == "Best") || (pab > 0.5 && projection_type == "Worst") ) { teamName = teamNameb; teamID = teamIDb; score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); playin_opponentID = teamIDa; playin_opponent_name = teamNamea; playin_opponent_score = 100 - score; } else { teamName = teamNamea; teamID = teamIDa; score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); playin_opponentID = teamIDb; playin_opponent_name = teamNameb; playin_opponent_score = 100 - score; } } } else { let pab = get_predicted_probability(teamIDa, teamIDb); if ( (pab < 0.5 && projection_type == "Best") || (pab > 0.5 && projection_type == "Worst") ) { teamName = teamNameb; teamID = teamIDb; score = Math.ceil(100 * (1 - pab)); playin_opponentID = teamIDa; playin_opponent_name = teamNamea; playin_opponent_score = 100 - score; } else { teamName = teamNamea; teamID = teamIDa; score = Math.ceil(100 * pab); playin_opponentID = teamIDb; playin_opponent_name = teamNameb; playin_opponent_score = 100 - score; } } playin = { score: score, teamID: teamIDa, playin_opponentID: playin_opponentID, playin_opponent_name: playin_opponent_name, playin_opponent_score: playin_opponent_score }; } } return { TeamName: teamName, TeamNames: teamNames, TeamID: teamID, seed: expected_seed, slot: slot, playin: playin }; }3f:T4b0,async function set_setup(csv_file) { let p = csv_file.search("\n"); let header = csv_file.slice(0, p).toLowerCase(); csv_file = header + csv_file.slice(p); let predictions = await d3.csvParse(csv_file); let mpredictions = predictions .filter((o) => o.id[5] == 1) .filter(function (o) { let [seed1, seed2] = o.id.split("_").slice(1); return mseed_ids.indexOf(seed1) > -1 && mseed_ids.indexOf(seed2) > -1; }); let wpredictions = predictions .filter((o) => o.id[5] == 3) .filter(function (o) { let [seed1, seed2] = o.id.split("_").slice(1); return wseed_ids.indexOf(seed1) > -1 && wseed_ids.indexOf(seed2) > -1; }); let all_predictions = mpredictions.concat(wpredictions); predictions = { Men: mpredictions, Women: wpredictions, all_predictions }; console.log(predictions); // let year = parseInt(predictions[0].id.slice(0, 4)); mutable setup = { men_or_women: display, // year: year, predictions: predictions, all_predictions }; d3.select(viewof projection_type) .selectAll("input") .property("disabled", false); d3.select(viewof projection) .selectAll("input") .property("disabled", false); }40:T485,styles = html` 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Madness","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# (Old) Kaggle brackets for March Madness`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1999,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2007,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2740,"value":"viewof projection = Inputs.radio([\"None\", \"From current\", \"From beginning\"], {\n label: \"Projection:\",\n value: \"None\",\n disabled: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2739,"value":"viewof projection_type = Inputs.radio([\"Best\", \"Worst\"], {\n label: \"Projection type:\",\n value: \"Best\",\n disabled: true\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2884,"value":"viewof display = Inputs.radio([\"Men\", \"Women\"], {\n label: \"Display:\",\n value: \"Men\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2883,"value":"overall_brier_display = {\n let div = d3\n .create(\"div\")\n .style(\"height\", \"25px\")\n .style(\"font-size\", \"20px\")\n .style(\"text-align\", \"center\")\n .style(\"opacity\", projection == \"None\" ? 1 : 0.2);\n\n if (overall_brier_score && !isNaN(overall_brier_score)) {\n div.text(`Overall Brier score = ${d3.format(\"0.5f\")(overall_brier_score)}`);\n }\n return div.node();\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2882,"value":"selected_brier_display = {\n let div = d3\n .create(\"div\")\n .style(\"height\", \"15px\")\n .style(\"font-size\", \"20px\")\n .style(\"text-align\", \"center\");\n let games = tourney_tree\n .descendants()\n .filter(\n (node) =>\n node.data.WTeam &&\n node.data.WTeam.score != 1 &&\n node.data.LTeam &&\n (node.data.played || node.data.projected)\n )\n .map((node) => node.data);\n let brier_score =\n d3.sum(\n games.map((g) =>\n Math.pow(\n get_predicted_probability(g.WTeam.TeamID, g.LTeam.TeamID) - 1,\n 2\n )\n )\n ) / games.length;\n if (brier_score && !isNaN(brier_score)) {\n div.text(\n `${\n projection == \"None\" ? \"\" : \"Projected \"\n }${display}'s Brier score = ${d3.format(\"0.5f\")(brier_score)}`\n );\n }\n return div.node();\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1548,"value":"brackets = make_brackets()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2746,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"comments","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2737,"value":"## Data\n\nAll the data comes from Kaggle's March Machine Learning Mania competitions for the [Men's](https://www.kaggle.com/c/mens-march-mania-2022) and [Women's](https://www.kaggle.com/c/womens-march-mania-2022) tournaments. Thus, you can visualize a prediction file for any year covered by Kaggle's data. That's\n\n * All men's tournaments since 1985 and\n * all women's tournaments since 1998.\n\nOf course, 2020 isn't included and 2022 is only partway through.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1551,"value":"md`## Code`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1595,"value":"md`This main \\`make_brackets\\` function creates a \\`div\\` element, adds an absolutely positioned \\`svg\\` element on which we draw the connectors, then adds 63 absolutely positioned \\`div\\` elements to display the games.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":926,"value":"$35","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1598,"value":"md`### Components`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1589,"value":"$36","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2353,"value":"format = d3.format('0.5f')","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1592,"value":"$37","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1345,"value":"$38","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1608,"value":"md`### Repositioning\n\nA bit more complicated than I might have liked. \\`d3.tree\\` applied to a \\`d3.hiearchy\\` returns a lovely top-to-bottom layout. A standard trick to reorient that horizontally is to swap x and y. In the setup here, we've got to rearrange the four regions so that one half the bracket occupies the left half of the \\`div\\` while the other half occupies the right. In addition, we want the top two regions to feed into the top national semi-final and similarly for the bottom.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1197,"value":"$39","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1194,"value":"$3a","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1615,"value":"md`### Contructing the tournament`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1339,"value":"// Apply d3.hierarchy and d3.tree\n// We can define display_map below to order the seeds in\n// round 1 however we want.\ntourney_tree = {\n let tree = d3.hierarchy(tourney);\n tree.sort(function(x, y) {\n return (\n display_map.get(y.data.expected_seeds[0]) -\n display_map.get(x.data.expected_seeds[0])\n );\n });\n d3\n .tree()\n .separation((a, b) => (a.parent == b.parent ? 1 : 1.1) / a.depth)\n .size([div_height, div_width])(tree);\n\n tree.descendants().forEach(function(v) {\n v.x2 = horizontal_rescaler(v);\n v.y2 = vertical_rescaler(v);\n });\n\n return tree;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1619,"value":"md`Here's where we actually construct the tournament based on the input data.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"$3b","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":458,"value":"// Here's how I'd like the seeds to be positioned in round 1\ndisplay_map = {\n let display_order = [1, 16, 9, 8, 5, 12, 13, 4, 3, 14, 11, 6, 7, 10, 15, 2];\n let display_map = new Map();\n display_order.forEach((d, i) => display_map.set(d, i + 1));\n return display_map;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1628,"value":"$3c","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1752,"value":"$3d","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":904,"value":"$3e","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":505,"value":"// Look up the scores\nfunction get_scores(teamID1, teamID2) {\n let result = this_years_results.filter(function(o) {\n return (\n (o.WTeamID == teamID1 && o.LTeamID == teamID2) ||\n (o.WTeamID == teamID2 && o.LTeamID == teamID1)\n );\n });\n if (result.length == 1) {\n result = result[0];\n if (result.WTeamID == teamID1) {\n return [result.WScore, result.LScore].map(d => parseInt(d));\n } else if (result.LTeamID == teamID1) {\n return [result.LScore, result.WScore].map(d => parseInt(d));\n }\n } else {\n return [0, 0];\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2024,"value":"function get_predicted_probability(id1, id2) {\n let i, j;\n if (id1 < id2) {\n i = id1;\n j = id2;\n } else {\n i = id2;\n j = id1;\n }\n let found;\n if (setup && setup.all_predictions) {\n found = setup.all_predictions.filter(function (o) {\n let [ir, jr] = o.id\n .split(\"_\")\n .slice(1)\n .map((x) => parseInt(x));\n if (i == ir && j == jr) {\n return true;\n }\n });\n }\n if (found && found.length > 0) {\n if (id1 < id2) {\n return parseFloat(found[0].pred);\n } else {\n return 1 - parseFloat(found[0].pred);\n }\n } else {\n return \"none\";\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2258,"value":"function log_loss(game) {\n let pred = get_predicted_probability(game.WTeamID, game.LTeamID);\n return -Math.log(cut(pred));\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2450,"value":"function cut(x, eps = 1e-15) {\n let x2 = x;\n if (x < eps) {\n x2 = eps;\n } else if (x > 1 - eps) {\n x2 = 1 - eps;\n }\n return x2;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2262,"value":"$3f","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2874,"value":"setup.predictions.Men.filter((o) => 0.01 > +o.pred || +o.pred > 0.99)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2253,"value":"mutable setup = ({})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2426,"value":"// From @mbostock/pbcopy\nfunction pbcopy(text) {\n const fake = document.body.appendChild(document.createElement(\"textarea\"));\n fake.style.position = \"absolute\";\n fake.style.left = \"-9999px\";\n fake.setAttribute(\"readonly\", \"\");\n fake.value = \"\" + text;\n fake.select();\n try {\n return document.execCommand(\"copy\");\n } catch (err) {\n return false;\n } finally {\n fake.parentNode.removeChild(fake);\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1634,"value":"md`### Data\n\nThe data comes from Kaggle's March madness competitions for [men](https://www.kaggle.com/c/google-cloud-ncaa-march-madness-2020-division-1-mens-tournament) and [women](https://www.kaggle.com/c/google-cloud-ncaa-march-madness-2020-division-1-womens-tournament).\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1640,"value":"md`#### Filtered for the selected tournament.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2873,"value":"this_years_results.filter((o) => !o.playin_flag)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2872,"value":"overall_brier_score = {\n let scored_results = this_years_results.filter((o) => !o.playin_flag);\n return (\n d3.sum(\n scored_results.map(\n (o) => (1 - get_predicted_probability(o.WTeamID, o.LTeamID)) ** 2\n )\n ) / scored_results.length\n );\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2871,"value":"display_results","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2870,"value":"display_brier_score = {\n let scored_results = display_results.filter((o) => !o.playin_flag);\n return (\n d3.sum(\n scored_results.map(\n (o) => (1 - get_predicted_probability(o.WTeamID, o.LTeamID)) ** 2\n )\n ) / scored_results.length\n );\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2869,"value":"display_results = {\n let c = display.slice(0, 1) == \"M\" ? 1 : 3;\n let scored_results = this_years_results.filter(\n (o) => !o.playin_flag && Math.floor(o.WTeamID / 1000) == c\n );\n return scored_results;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":503,"value":"this_years_results = ncaa_results_2023\n// .filter(function (o) {\n// let [id1, id2] = d3.sort([o.LTeamID, o.WTeamID]);\n// let id = `2023_${id1}_${id2}`;\n// return o.playin_flag || kaggle_scored_ids.indexOf(id) > -1;\n// })\n\n// .filter(function (o) {\n// let [id1, id2] = d3.sort([o.LTeamID, o.WTeamID]);\n// let id = `2023_${id1}_${id2}`;\n// return kaggle_scored_ids.indexOf(id) > -1;\n// })\n\n// this_years_results = {\n// let results;\n// if (setup.men_or_women == \"Men\") {\n// results = mresults.filter(d => d.Season == setup.year);\n// } else {\n// results = wresults.filter(d => d.Season == setup.year);\n// }\n// results.map(function(o) {\n// o.playin_flag = check_playin(o);\n// });\n// return results;\n// }","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2867,"value":"// this_years_seed_ids = this_years_seeds.map((o) => o.TeamID)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":477,"value":"// this_years_seeds = seeds.filter((o) => o.Season == \"2023\")\n//.concat(wseeds.filter((o) => o.Season == \"2023\"))\n\n// {\n// if (setup.men_or_women == \"Men\") {\n// return mseeds.filter(d => d.Season == setup.year);\n// } else {\n// return wseeds.filter(d => d.Season == setup.year);\n// }\n// }","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2342,"value":"function check_playin(result) {\n let wteam_id = result.WTeamID;\n let wteam_seed = seeds[display].filter((o) => o.TeamID == wteam_id)[0].Seed;\n if (wteam_seed.length == 4) {\n let lteam_id = result.LTeamID;\n let lteam_seed = seeds[display].filter((o) => o.TeamID == lteam_id)[0].Seed;\n if (lteam_seed.length == 4) {\n return true;\n } else {\n return false;\n }\n } else {\n return false;\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1643,"value":"md`#### All the raw data`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":693,"value":"// wresults = d3.csvParse(\n// await FileAttachment(\"WNCAATourneyCompactResults@63.csv\").text()\n// )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1646,"value":"md`#### Maps to easily access team name from team ID`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":706,"value":"team_map = {\n let team_map = new Map();\n let mteams = d3.csvParse(await FileAttachment(\"MTeams@1.csv\").text());\n mteams.forEach(function (team) {\n team_map.set(team.TeamID, team.TeamName);\n });\n let wteams = d3.csvParse(await FileAttachment(\"WTeams@1.csv\").text());\n wteams.forEach(function (team) {\n team_map.set(team.TeamID, team.TeamName);\n });\n return team_map;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2862,"value":"wseed_ids = seeds.Women.map((o) => o.TeamID)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2861,"value":"mseed_ids = seeds.Men.map((o) => o.TeamID)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2860,"value":"seeds = {\n let mseeds = d3.csvParse(\n await FileAttachment(\"MNCAATourneySeeds@2.csv\").text()\n );\n mseeds = mseeds.filter((o) => o.Season == 2023);\n let wseeds = d3.csvParse(\n await FileAttachment(\"WNCAATourneySeeds@3.csv\").text()\n );\n wseeds = wseeds.filter((o) => o.Season == 2023);\n return { Men: mseeds, Women: wseeds };\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":253,"value":"// mseeds = d3.csvParse(await FileAttachment(\"MNCAATourneySeeds.csv\").text())","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":277,"value":"// mresults = d3.csvParse(\n// await FileAttachment(\"MNCAATourneyCompactResults@86.csv\").text()\n// )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2913,"value":"// seed_ids = mseed_ids.concat(wseed_ids)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2928,"value":"this_years_results.filter(function (o) {\n let [id1, id2] = d3.sort([o.LTeamID, o.WTeamID]);\n let id = `2023_${id1}_${id2}`;\n return o.playin_flag || kaggle_scored_ids.indexOf(id) > -1;\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2917,"value":"kaggle_scored_ids = kaggle_score_file\n .filter((o) => o.Usage == \"Public\")\n .map((o) => o.ID)\n// .filter(function (o) {\n// let [s1, s2] = o.ID.split(\"_\").slice(1);\n// return seed_ids.indexOf(s1) > -1 && seed_ids.indexOf(s2) > -1;\n// })","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2911,"value":"kaggle_score_file = FileAttachment(\n \"kaggle_results@1.csv\"\n).csv()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1649,"value":"md`### Imports`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":632,"value":"import { select, radio } from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":609,"value":"tippy = require(\"tippy.js@6\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2226,"value":"style = html``","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2857,"value":"import { ncaa_results_2023 } from \"c7bca04a9bd56e41\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1655,"value":"md`### Parameters`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":954,"value":"div_height = 0.85 * screen.availHeight\n// div_height = window.innerHeight","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1004,"value":"game_height = div_height / 20","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":964,"value":"div_width = width","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1002,"value":"team_width = div_width / 9","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1652,"value":"$40","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2902,"value":"## Computations","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2980,"value":"preds = FileAttachment(\"FiveThirtyEightPredictions.csv\").csv({ typed: true })","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3001,"value":"d3.min(preds, (o) => Math.abs(o.pred - 0.5))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2986,"value":"function set_score(team1ID, team2ID) {\n let game_id;\n if (team1ID < team2ID) {\n game_id = `2023_${team1ID}_${team2ID}`;\n } else {\n game_id = `2023_${team2ID}_${team1ID}`;\n }\n let pred = preds.find((game) => game.id == game_id).pred;\n let s = Math.ceil(100 * pred);\n let p = Math.random();\n if (p < pred) {\n return [s, 100 - s];\n } else {\n return [100 - s, s];\n }\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W41","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 31:"$30:body"