34:["$","title",null,{"children":"Navigating uncertain political news in real-time with Forecast | Miles McCrocklin | Observable"}] 3c:Te17,md`# Navigating uncertain political news in real-time with Forecast

In a time where news can become stale, or worse, misinform the moment it goes online, [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877) can help sift through the noise and showcase an evolving consensus as a function of time. [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877) is modeled as a social [prediction market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) built within [New Product Experimentation @ Facebook](https://npe.fb.com/). Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what a community thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877) is a community where members can pose their own questions about the future, make predictions, and contribute to discussions leveraging their collective knowledge. All the data from the app is public and available [here](https://forecastapp.net/downloads/). We invite you to take the data for a spin and [tell us](mailto:forecast-feedback@fb.com) if you have any feedback! Since launching [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877), we have noticed something very encouraging: price changes on Forecasters tend to closely mirror news events. As the news changes, the community surfaces it, reads through the details to make educated forecasts of what’s happening. It doesn’t hurt that Forecasters have a strong incentive to quickly break news into the community^, but only if it’s high quality^^. At a tiny scale, this means that Forecast is starting to function as a kind of time series aggregator of news+analyses+opinion. News and opinion go in (and make for an engaging discussion, if I do say so myself), and out pops a snapshot of how the community has grappled with a complex issue over time. A question that I think really highlights this for me is: ["Will the US government ban TikTok by the end of 2021?"](https://forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3/). This narrative has changed drastically day by day. Along with this, there's been a slew of quality reporting on the issue ranging from [explainers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAsXGN2OX0c) to [op-eds](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/opinion/tiktok-wechat-ban-trump.html), or news in itself. Often this coverage has headlines focused on what was said (e.g: [Trump issues orders banning TikTok and WeChat from operating in 45 days if they are not sold by Chinese parent companies](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/06/politics/trump-executive-order-tiktok/index.html)) requiring people to dig deeper to understand if it can impact people. Let's compare that with Forecast, which poses the question to the community like so:

Forecasters are then asked to choose to invest in what they believe the outcome __will be__ and do some research or explain their rationale to back up their position.

Since this question was posed to the community, we've seen the expected outcome change frequently. Let's dive into the trading activity: `3d:T8c9,breakingNewsTikTokChart = { const margin = {...MARGIN, top: 80}; const svg = transactionsOverTime( d3.create("svg"), tikTokAnswerColors, TIK_TOK, [ { subject: { y1: margin.top, y2: height - margin.bottom, }, note: { label: "Trump tells reporters he plans to ban TikTok within 24 hours", lineType: "none", orientation: "top", align: "middle", wrapSplitter: /\n/, textWrap: 10, padding: 60, }, connector: { end: 'arrow', }, //can use x, y directly instead of data data: { date: new Date("2020-07-31") }, className: "show-bg", color: "#355663", }, { subject: { y1: margin.top, y2: height - margin.bottom, }, note: { label: "MSFT exploring purchase", lineType: "none", orientation: "top", align: "middle", wrapSplitter: /\n/, wrap: 10, padding: 40, }, connector: { end: 'arrow', }, //can use x, y directly instead of data data: { date: new Date("2020-08-02"), close: 100, visible: 'hover'}, className: "show-bg", color: "#355663", }, { subject: { y1: margin.top, y2: height - margin.bottom, }, note: { label: "Executive order to bar U.S businesses from working with Byte Dance", lineType: "none", orientation: "top", align: "middle", wrapSplitter: /\n/, wrap: 10, padding: 20, }, connector: { end: 'arrow', }, //can use x, y directly instead of data data: { date: new Date("2020-08-06"), close: 100, visible: 'always'}, className: "show-bg", color: "#355663", }, ], { margin, timeExtent: [new Date('2020-07-30'), new Date('2020-08-10')], annotateReasons: true, transactionLines: false, transactionPoints: true, answerUnifiedLine: false, hourlyPriceLines: true, }, ); return svg.node(); }3e:T411,md` By looking at this question in this way, you can see a quick summary of what people *thought* would happen at a given moment in time. If you haven't been playing very close attention to the overall narrative, you can better understand what you missed and take a look at the reasons of the forecasters to understand *why* the conversation shifted. Forecast is still working at a small scale. We’ve noticed (unsurprisingly) that this news-driven volatility effect is much stronger on shorter-term questions (especially those closing within the next 3 months), likely because the incentive to make a forecast weakens as the time to close lengthens. If you want to join and help push conversations like these forward, [download the app](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877)! All the data--transactions, forecasts, and reasons--used to make these forecasts is available [here](https://forecastapp.net/downloads/). We invite you to take the data for a spin and [tell us](mailto:forecast-feedback@fb.com) if you have any feedback! `3f:T1203,function transactionsOverTime( svg, color, question, annotations, { timeExtent = null, transactionLines = false, transactionPoints = true, annotateReasons = false, answerUnifiedLine = false, hourlyPriceLines = false, legend = true, margin = MARGIN, } = {}) { const {transactions} = question; svg.attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .style("font-family", "sans-serif"); const x = d3.scaleTime() .domain(timeExtent != null ? timeExtent : d3.extent(transactions, t => new Date(t.timestamp))) .range([margin.left, width - margin.right]); const y = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, 100]) .range([height - margin.bottom, margin.top]); svg.append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - margin.bottom})`) .attr("class", "x-axis") .call(d3.axisBottom(x) .ticks(width / 80) .tickSizeOuter(0)); const yAxis = svg.append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left},0)`) .attr("class", "y-axis") .call(d3.axisLeft(y).ticks(5).tickFormat(t => percFormat(t/100.0))); const yes_answer_id = question.answers[0].answer_id; const line = d3.line() .curve(d3.curveBasis) .x(t => x(new Date(t.timestamp))) .y(t => y(t.valuePerShare)); if (annotateReasons) { const reasonAnnotations = d3_svg_annotation.annotation() .type(d3_svg_annotation.annotationXYThreshold) .accessors({ x: d => x(d.date), }) .annotations( question.reasons .filter(r => timeExtent == null || (timeExtent[0] < new Date(r.timestamp) && timeExtent[1] > new Date(r.timestamp))) .map((r, i) => { return { subject: { y1: margin.top, y2: height - margin.bottom, }, note: i === 0 ? { label: `Reason Created`, } : undefined, disable: ['connector'], data: { date: new Date(r.timestamp), close: 100}, className: "reason", dx: 0, dy: -10, color: "#8FA3AB", }; })); svg.append('g').attr('class', 'reason-annotations').call(reasonAnnotations); } const answers = svg.selectAll('.answer') .data(question.answers); answers .enter() .append('g') .classed('answer', true) .each(function(answer) { const answerG = d3.select(this); // Line if (transactionLines) { answerG.append('path') .datum(answer.transactions) .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", color(answer.answer_id)) .attr("stroke-width", 4) .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("stroke-linecap", "round") .attr("d", line); } // Points if (transactionPoints) { const points = answerG.selectAll('circle') .data(answer.transactions); points.enter().append('circle') .attr('fill', color(answer.answer_id)) .attr('stroke', color(answer.answer_id)) .attr('cx', d => x(new Date(d.timestamp))) .attr('cy', d => y(d.valuePerShare)) .attr('r', 1.5) .style('opacity', 0.7); } if (hourlyPriceLines) { answerG.append('path') .datum(answer.hourlyPrice) .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", color(answer.answer_id)) .attr("stroke-width", 4) .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("stroke-linecap", "round") .attr("d", line); } }); if (answerUnifiedLine) { const yesAnswer = question.answers[0].answer_id; const unifiedAnswerLine = d3.line() .curve(d3.curveBasis) .x(t => x(new Date(t.timestamp))) .y(t => (t.answer_id === yesAnswer) ? y(t.valuePerShare) : y(100 - t.valuePerShare)); svg.append('path') .datum(transactions) .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", color(yesAnswer)) .attr("stroke-width", 4) .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("stroke-linecap", "round") .attr("d", unifiedAnswerLine); } const customAnnotations = d3_svg_annotation.annotation() .type(d3_svg_annotation.annotationXYThreshold) .textWrap(40) .accessors({ x: d => x(d.date), }) .textWrap(10) .annotations(annotations); svg.append('g').attr('class', 'custom-annotations').call(customAnnotations); if (legend) { // TODO: Implement a legend explaining this graph. } return svg; };40:T6d6,html` `41:[{"id":"aa03fc3e7f3e17f9fe5a659078c5e0262b3a3e99584be18ce552dc1c653b6f228bd6ee6a891989290d4b37fb54ea1912103911c0244aa6dd5f9f7f8e56ab95dc","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/aa03fc3e7f3e17f9fe5a659078c5e0262b3a3e99584be18ce552dc1c653b6f228bd6ee6a891989290d4b37fb54ea1912103911c0244aa6dd5f9f7f8e56ab95dc","name":"transactions-TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3-2 (1).json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1604004455998.163,"size":382267},{"id":"3224d9596466ab1e7f07a55de22fa69e15204245470b75a3ed0cdf98e710a491f4f6bdab64eaa71db11e6647c4744c42526818c7f7c15af10fbaa54492653a20","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/3224d9596466ab1e7f07a55de22fa69e15204245470b75a3ed0cdf98e710a491f4f6bdab64eaa71db11e6647c4744c42526818c7f7c15af10fbaa54492653a20","name":"ANSWERS.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1604004452675.638,"size":2658676},{"id":"9c90294d3926119337c3202abf9149e490fc6d45fa113f4a29e4d124c4bbfd26927bdc0b1a070046fc5a514b2f83a295c0d3e39aeb0547ac494274edebf5cd06","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/9c90294d3926119337c3202abf9149e490fc6d45fa113f4a29e4d124c4bbfd26927bdc0b1a070046fc5a514b2f83a295c0d3e39aeb0547ac494274edebf5cd06","name":"REASONS.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1604004449686.918,"size":1285667},{"id":"b48297261725accace5af1d0c5fa59dd7ad9f0a815d67b16a23058759fb58c53064318d8e5707ee30c2057ba649f8cbfe4d41c77bd8b8085bce22d2c8790191d","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/b48297261725accace5af1d0c5fa59dd7ad9f0a815d67b16a23058759fb58c53064318d8e5707ee30c2057ba649f8cbfe4d41c77bd8b8085bce22d2c8790191d","name":"trading.gif","type":"image/gif","lastModified":1604099057087.478,"size":8009832},{"id":"cf65a4e251d94711131be99accd02ec9fd1300e1fe10528f9252b87859dcb8e65086d0e41110efa9abe8a1c22670b5024a0bb25f8857e7803a237e31844e15f8","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/cf65a4e251d94711131be99accd02ec9fd1300e1fe10528f9252b87859dcb8e65086d0e41110efa9abe8a1c22670b5024a0bb25f8857e7803a237e31844e15f8","name":"123137617_1296503344019250_7830066632189593635_n.jpg","type":"image/jpeg","lastModified":1604097739812.371,"size":96821},{"id":"2b33987ae74d93152422f39813c1d803cd565a41fe0c1e095c25dd6bb9792d7c636d8b5a6fb8c6e762c49fe7ab3ef6c4e32eaa8d6c433868ee155fbe55c36851","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2b33987ae74d93152422f39813c1d803cd565a41fe0c1e095c25dd6bb9792d7c636d8b5a6fb8c6e762c49fe7ab3ef6c4e32eaa8d6c433868ee155fbe55c36851","name":"TikTok.png","type":"image/png","lastModified":1604433059787.485,"size":82799},{"id":"1a17388e21f02640c505460f86b2d0d2684fc296100b4ae6b9aaf4b83e70fef56f36870ad6ac1e2a011a40094d3b5c0ef16f6052486b2faccdaf5ed525647183","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/1a17388e21f02640c505460f86b2d0d2684fc296100b4ae6b9aaf4b83e70fef56f36870ad6ac1e2a011a40094d3b5c0ef16f6052486b2faccdaf5ed525647183","name":"transactions-TWFya2V0OlNoRTNPUmpHelUw.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1604435712496.54,"size":600759},{"id":"52b26c57eb6f78c9cf164a51d23108b7ff0508917d30e7fe00543d25b80a9167a4941d2ea37fb21847eca31e205de4eccef69137fe20d00728c089227386fab0","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/52b26c57eb6f78c9cf164a51d23108b7ff0508917d30e7fe00543d25b80a9167a4941d2ea37fb21847eca31e205de4eccef69137fe20d00728c089227386fab0","name":"transactions-TWFya2V0Ok5Hcy1rWlNHUGxN.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1604435288944.629,"size":72043}] 38:{"id":"588d42b1adc1b93b","slug":"navigating-uncertain-political-news-in-real-time-with-fore","title":"Navigating uncertain political news in real-time with Forecast","thumbnail":"04152b5ea2819b70d5f72f2bcfbf5b13c48f31c1e0f0eee038bd461edb732209","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-10-29T20:39:32.395Z","update_time":"$D2020-11-06T23:03:18.578Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-11-04T17:34:27.157Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":3,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"3762857ab58c4e81","login":"milr0c","name":"Miles McCrocklin","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/27e7022929fa2ee4755674f9ea96d21315d3693eff79e3c54f78242315a0e4b2","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"Building @ForecastByNPE | past: Eng lead on fact-checking\n@facebook","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":1520,"publish_version":1520,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"fbde6f29d8f91a5b","login":"milr0c","name":"Miles McCrocklin","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/27e7022929fa2ee4755674f9ea96d21315d3693eff79e3c54f78242315a0e4b2","tier":null,"bio":"Building @ForecastByNPE | past: Eng lead on fact-checking\n@facebook","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"fbde6f29d8f91a5b","login":"milr0c","name":"Miles McCrocklin","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/27e7022929fa2ee4755674f9ea96d21315d3693eff79e3c54f78242315a0e4b2","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":2,"collection":{"id":"e2f0c73ee53c27a2","slug":"getting-started-with-forecast-data","title":"Getting Started with Forecast Data","owner":{"id":"3762857ab58c4e81","login":"milr0c","name":"Miles McCrocklin"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Navigating uncertain political news in real-time with Forecast","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"$3c","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":538,"value":"viewof scrubbedTikTokTransactions = scrubQuestionTransactions(TIK_TOK, {autoPlay: true})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":434,"value":"transactionsDetails(scrubbedTikTokTransactions[2], tikTokAnswerColors)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"scrubbedTikTokChart = {\n const svg = transactionsOverTime(\n d3.create(\"svg\"), \n tikTokAnswerColors, \n scrubbedTikTokTransactions[2], \n [], \n // {timeExtent: d3.extent(TIK_TOK.transactions, t => new Date(t.timestamp))},\n {\n annotateReasons: true,\n transactionLines: false,\n transactionPoints: false,\n answerUnifiedLine: false,\n hourlyPriceLines: true,\n },\n );\n return svg.node();\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":663,"value":"md`We can see there were two days where the outcome seemed to drastically shift. Let's look closer at one of them from July 30th to August 10`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":725,"value":"md`#### Will the US government ban TikTok by the end of 2021?`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1362,"value":"$3d","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":745,"value":"md`\nAs you can see, Forecasters were pretty quick on the uptake in capturing what was happening in real time and assimilating it into an updated forecast of the future. The consensus then equalizes to an expected outcome, but if the historicals are any indication, we may see more volatility before this question closes in December.\n\nLet's look at a question that we already know the outcome for. [Will a second presidential debate between Donald Trump & Biden take place on 10/15/20?](${SECOND_DEBATE.link}) \n\nThis was confidently set as scheduled to happen until Trump caught COVID and in the days leading up to it, it became heavily debated in the app until it was [ultimately cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html). \n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":746,"value":"viewof scrubbedSecondDebateTransactions = scrubQuestionTransactions(SECOND_DEBATE, {autoPlay: false})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1386,"value":"transactionsDetails(scrubbedSecondDebateTransactions[2], secondDebateColors)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1394,"value":"scrubbedSecondDebateChart = {\n const svg = transactionsOverTime(\n d3.create(\"svg\"), \n secondDebateColors, \n scrubbedSecondDebateTransactions[2], \n [], \n // {timeExtent: d3.extent(TIK_TOK.transactions, t => new Date(t.timestamp))},\n {\n annotateReasons: true,\n transactionLines: false,\n transactionPoints: true,\n answerUnifiedLine: false,\n hourlyPriceLines: true,\n },\n );\n return svg.node();\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":734,"value":"$3e","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":81,"value":"md`\n----\n## Appendix\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":764,"value":"md`\n### Annotations\n* ^To maximize their return in correcting prices based on new information.\n* ^^To maximize points given when other forecasters support their reasons.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":241,"value":"md`### Constants`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":243,"value":"height = 500;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":261,"value":"MARGIN = ({top: 20, right: 30, bottom: 30, left: 40})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":141,"value":"md`\n### Reusable functions\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"function dateFormat(str) {\n return d3.timeFormat(\"%B %d, %Y\")(new Date(str));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":470,"value":"numFormat = d3.format('.2s');","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1084,"value":"percFormat = d3.format('.0%');","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":212,"value":"function questionDetails(question) {\n return html`\n

${question.title} [link]

\n ${question.answers.map(a => html`

${a.answer_short_label}: ${a.answer_label}

`)}\n

Resolved on: ${dateFormat(question.resolution_date)}

\n Resolved by: ${question.resolution_criteria}\n

${question.title}

\n${question.answers.map(answer => {\n const numberOfTransactions = answer.transactions.length;\n const numberOfBuys = answer.transactions.filter(t => t.type === 'BUY').length;\n const numberOfSells = answer.transactions.filter(t => t.type === 'SELL').length;\n const sharesBought = answer.transactions.filter(t => t.type === 'BUY').reduce((s, t) => s + t.quantity, 0);\n const pointsUsed = answer.transactions.filter(t => t.type === 'BUY').reduce((s, t) => s + t.points, 0);\n const users = new Set(answer.transactions.map(t => t.anonymized_player_id));\n return html`\n

\n ${answer.answer_short_label}: ${users.size} people made \n ${numberOfTransactions} transactions \n [${numberOfBuys} buys / ${numberOfSells} sells] of ${sharesBought} shares with ${numFormat(pointsUsed)} points

`;\n })}\n

\n `;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":448,"value":"$3f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":635,"value":"function scrubQuestionTransactions(question, scrubberOptions = {}) {\n return Scrubber(\n question.transactions.map((t, i) => {\n const transactions = question.transactions.slice(0, i);\n const answers = question.answers.map(a => {\n return {\n ...a,\n transactions: transactions.filter(t => t.answer_id === a.answer_id),\n }\n });\n return [t.timestamp, question.transactions.slice(0, i), {...question, transactions, answers}];\n }), \n {initial: question, autoplay: false, loop: false, format: ([date, prevTransactions, question]) => `${dateFormat(date)}: ${prevTransactions.length} transactions`, ...scrubberOptions},\n);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":897,"value":"md`\n### Overrides\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":899,"value":"$40","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":137,"value":"md`\n### Data munging\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":489,"value":"tikTokAnswerColors = d3.scaleOrdinal()\n .domain(TIK_TOK.answers.map(a => a.answer_id))\n .range([`#24CDAB`, `#FC6960`]);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1388,"value":"secondDebateColors = d3.scaleOrdinal()\n .domain(SECOND_DEBATE.answers.map(a => a.answer_id))\n .range([`#24CDAB`, `#FC6960`]);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":52,"value":"TIK_TOK = computeQuestion(\"TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3\", TIK_TOK_TRANSACTIONS)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1377,"value":"SECOND_DEBATE = computeQuestion(\"TWFya2V0OlNoRTNPUmpHelUw\", OCT_15_TRANSACTIONS);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1356,"value":"function computeQuestion(questionID, rawtransactions) {\n const transactions = rawtransactions.map(t => {\n return {\n ...t,\n valuePerShare: t.points / t.quantity\n };\n });\n transactions.sort((a, b) => new Date(a.timestamp) - new Date(b.timestamp));\n const answers = ALL_ANSWERS.filter(a => a.question_id === questionID);\n const reasons = ALL_REASONS.filter(r => r.question_id === questionID);\n const questionDetails = getQuestionDetails(answers);\n return {\n ...questionDetails,\n answers: answers.map(a => {\n const aTransactions = transactions.filter(t => t.answer_id === a.answer_id);\n const hourlyPrice = computeHourlyPrice(aTransactions);\n return {\n ...a,\n answer_label: a.answer_label.replace('?', '.'),\n transactions: aTransactions,\n hourlyPrice,\n };\n }),\n reasons,\n transactions,\n };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1190,"value":"DAY_IN_MS = 60 * 60 * 1000 * 24","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1188,"value":"function computeHourlyPrice(transactions, interval = DAY_IN_MS) {\n const HOURLY_PRICES = [];\n const [min, max] = d3.extent(transactions, t => new Date(t.timestamp));\n const sortedTransactions = [...transactions].sort((a, b) => new Date(a.timestamp) - new Date(b.timestamp));\n let i = +min;\n let j = 0;\n const bisect = d3.bisector(t => new Date(t.timestamp));\n while (i < +max) {\n const lIdx = bisect.left(sortedTransactions, i);\n const l = sortedTransactions[lIdx];\n HOURLY_PRICES.push({timestamp: new Date(i), valuePerShare: l.valuePerShare});\n i += interval;\n }\n return HOURLY_PRICES;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":89,"value":"function getQuestionDetails(answers) {\n if (answers == null || answers.length === 0) {\n return;\n }\n const {\n question_id: id, \n question_title: title, \n question_state: state, \n question_resolution_criteria: resolution_criteria,\n question_resolution_date: resolution_date,\n question_created: created_date,\n } = answers[0];\n return {\n id,\n title,\n state,\n resolution_criteria,\n resolution_date,\n created_date,\n link: `http://www.forecastapp.net/q/${id}`\n };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"ALL_ANSWERS = FileAttachment('ANSWERS.json').json()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1326,"value":"new Set(ALL_ANSWERS.filter(a => a.question_title.includes('10/15/20')).map(a => a.question_id));","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"ALL_REASONS = FileAttachment('REASONS.json').json();","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":101,"value":"TIK_TOK_TRANSACTIONS = FileAttachment(\"transactions-TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3-2 (1).json\").json();","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1368,"value":"OCT_7_TRANSACTIONS = FileAttachment(\"transactions-TWFya2V0Ok5Hcy1rWlNHUGxN.json\").json()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1412,"value":"OCT_15_TRANSACTIONS = FileAttachment(\"transactions-TWFya2V0OlNoRTNPUmpHelUw.json\").json()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":147,"value":"md`\n## imports\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":536,"value":"import {Scrubber} from \"@mbostock/scrubber\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":154,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":482,"value":"d3_svg_annotation = require(\"https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/d3-annotation/2.5.1/d3-annotation.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1270,"value":"d3_svg_legend = require(\"d3-svg-legend\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W41","stdlib":"1"}} 33:null