2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"EU-Trees 4F: Jamón ibérico under threat from climate crisis | Erik Escoffier | Observable"}] 33:T604,Climate change is already impacting peoples’ livelihoods, making it imperative that we are able to build resiliency into communities to withstand these changes. Understanding how forests will endure changing climate conditions is a key component. In Spain, the [impacts of climate change are already threatening a production of jamón ibérico](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/30/spains-prized-jamon-iberico-under-threat-from-climate-crisis), a denominación de origen product and a billion dollar industry. The most treasured of all jamón, however, is the jamón ibérico bellota, which retails more than €100 a kilo. This jamón can only be produced by purebred Black Iberian pigs that feed exclusively on acorns (or bellotas, hence the name) during the last month of their lives, and in a particular ecoregion of the country in the western Spain. In recent years, rising temperatures and decreased rainfall have meant reduced numbers of acorns form the holm oak ([Quercus ilex](https://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/media/atlas/Quercus_ilex.pdf)) on which these pigs feed, which in turn reduces the weight of the pigs. Drought conditions are reducing the area total area where pigs can graze and the amount of acorns available to feed them, resulting in underweight pigs. As a result, the jamón business is proving to be unprofitable and unsustainable for many, with [an expected 20 percent reduction in acorn-fed pigs this season than last](https://www.thelocal.es/20230202/droughts-threaten-spains-iconic-jamon-iberico/). 34:T4b7,

![Native races of Iberian pigs feeding on acorns of Holm oak ( Q. ilex subsp . ballota ) in a “dehesa” silvopastoral system (Photo: T. Marañón). ](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Miriam-Munoz-Rojas/publication/259298749/figure/fig2/AS:297229567971328@1447876459320/Native-races-of-Iberian-pigs-feeding-on-acorns-of-Holm-oak-Q-ilex-subsp-ballota-in.png)

Native races of Iberian pigs feeding on acorns of Holm oak ( Q. ilex subsp . ballota ) in a “dehesa” silvopastoral system (Photo: T. Marañón).

The holm oak that these farmers rely on thrives under damp conditions, reflecting the historical weather conditions of the region. Warmer, drier conditions are slowly driving these forests to extinction. Understanding how the forests in this area are expected to change and identifying alternative species that are more suited for these drier conditions will be essential to building more resilient forests and adapting to future climatic conditions. Additionally, identifying the projected extent of impacted areas can help decision makers support policies that will help provide economic support and adaptation strategies for these pig farmers. 35:T404,Simply put, the authors of produced a dataset of current and future potential distributions for 67 European tree species, by providing an ecological model ([BIOMOD2](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/biomod2/biomod2.pdf), an ‘Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Modeling’) the climatic and environmental constraints for each tree. Within BIOMOD2, a variety of sub-models were explored including regional climate models (RCMs) and species distribution models (SDMs), each running the data through a variety weather and species distribution scenarios. The combination of each of these model permutations within BIOMOD2 produced the bounds of suitable conditions for each tree to withstand into the future. Suitable conditions were developed using environmental data inputs like temperature, precipitation and soil type and explored under projected climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] 4.5 and 8.5) until the end of the century (examining three time steps: 2035, 2065, and 2095). 36:[{"id":"95a8a6cb35851803a2e3e491220dec272ade0f71b4891654e00552f2a645956c31fa14c48c54622dddf70a51e4d982e4ebbcafe1cfe9b62a36c6b44ae6a51192","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/95a8a6cb35851803a2e3e491220dec272ade0f71b4891654e00552f2a645956c31fa14c48c54622dddf70a51e4d982e4ebbcafe1cfe9b62a36c6b44ae6a51192","name":"Screenshot 2023-03-07 at 16.05.23.png","type":"image/png","lastModified":1678201556810.704,"size":523578}] 31:{"id":"c750b6c9f50215f8","slug":"eu-trees4f-jamon-iberico-under-threat-from-climate-crisis","title":"EU-Trees 4F: Jamón ibérico under threat from climate crisis","thumbnail":"0c2edcd39d1b49a4a0764830286881c3052d645452e5dc099d67e5d04687d02d","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2023-02-23T14:42:10.662Z","update_time":"$D2023-04-26T13:10:07.488Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2023-02-23T14:42:10.662Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"d78ef734124b1c67","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":244,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[{"id":"8f169f8db5e7e31b","reply_to_id":null,"content":"TODO: better visual only highlighting RCPs 4.5 and 8.5","create_time":"$D2023-03-08T09:51:26.426Z","update_time":null,"resolved":false,"user":{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null}}],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":{"id":"ba7e21575f994d70","slug":"eu-trees4f","title":"EU-Trees4F","owner":{"id":"d78ef734124b1c67","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"EU-Trees 4F: Jamón ibérico under threat from climate crisis","cells":[{"id":86,"value":"# EU-Trees 4F: _Jamón ibérico_ under threat from climate crisis","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":241,"value":"__Authors: Kathryn Berger in collaboration with Fausto Perez (design) and Erik Escoffier (coding)__","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":239,"value":"_This article looks at the impact of climate change on certain tree species, which is highlighted by the [EU-Trees4F study](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC127314), through the example of the holm oak, whose acorns feed pigs in Spain._","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":0,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":93,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":13,"value":"viewof map1 = {\n let mapContainer = html`

`\n yield mapContainer\n let map = await getMap(mapContainer, [-2, 39], 5.3, 35)\n setVisibility(map, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp45', true);\n setTimestep(map, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp45', 2005);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":181,"value":"

Interactive map: current area (2005) of Quercus ilex in Spain and Europe

\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"The holm oak that these farmers rely on thrives under damp conditions, reflecting the historical weather conditions of the region. Warmer, drier conditions are slowly driving these forests to extinction. Understanding how the forests in this area are expected to change and identifying alternative species that are more suited for these drier conditions will be essential to building more resilient forests and adapting to future climatic conditions. Additionally, identifying the projected extent of impacted areas can help decision makers support policies that will help provide economic support and adaptation strategies for these pig farmers. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":111,"value":"Now, more than ever, it is important that we focus on preparing for the future and that means improving our understanding of how the forested environment around us will change. The authors behind the [EU-Trees4F study](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC127314), thought of exactly this, providing a valuable resource for the exploration of what the future of European forests will look like under projected climate change scenarios. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":124,"value":"

The charts below show the projected relative extent of several tree species of agricultural interest in Spain in 2035, 2065 and 2095 compared to the 2005 baseline.
\n

area where species remains stable

area where species is likely to decolonize

area where species could thrive

${getStackedBars('chart1', \"Quercus_ilex\", \"ESP\")}

Holm oak (Quercus ilex)

${getStackedBars('chart2', \"Olea_europaea\", \"ESP\")}

Olive tree (Olea europaea)

${getStackedBars('chart3', \"Arbutus_unedo\", \"ESP\")}

Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo)

Use the slider below to change the time step visible on the map:

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":168,"value":"viewof timestep = {\n return Inputs.range([2005, 2095], {step: 30, value: 2035})\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":163,"value":"viewof map2 = {\n let container = html`

`;\n yield container;\n let map = await getMap(container, [-5, 40], 5, 0)\n setVisibility(map, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp45', true);\n setVisibility(map, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp85', false);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":170,"value":"html`

Possible range of Holm oak tree in Spain and Europe in ${setTimestep(map2, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp45', timestep)} (RCP 4.5)

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":195,"value":"_Scientists use these RCPs for climate modeling and research. They describe different climate future conditions, all of which may be possible depending on the volume of GHG emitted on the planet in years to come. The RCP 4.5 is described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a moderate scenario, where emissions peak around 2040 and the decline. Whereas the RCP 8.5 is described as the highest baseline emissions scenarios in which emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, with an anticipated temperature increase of approximately 4.3˚C by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial temperatures). _","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":197,"value":"screenshot20230307At160523 = FileAttachment(\"Screenshot 2023-03-07 at 16.05.23.png\").image()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":219,"value":"

Use the central slider to switch between views: left is Holm oak extent on RCP 4.5, right on RCP 8.5:

`;\n let rightContainer = html`

`;\n let container = html`

${leftContainer}${rightContainer}

`;\n yield container;\n \n let left = await getMap(leftContainer, [-5, 40], 5, 0)\n let right = await getMap(rightContainer, [-5, 40], 5, 0)\n\n setVisibility(left, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp45', true);\n setVisibility(left, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp85', false);\n setVisibility(right, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp45', false);\n setVisibility(right, 'quercus_ilex', 'rcp85', true);\n\n const compare = compareMaps(left, right, container);\n\n invalidation.then(() => {\n compare.remove();\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":225,"value":"The results of this work, provide a valuable data set for developing our understanding how the forests around us are expected to change and will be an essential component to building climate-smart forests of the future. Here at Development Seed, we are building interactive tools (i.e., Observable notebooks and a web app) to explore the results of this scientific work so that it is more accessible for exploration and interpretation to the wider public. Returning back to our holm oak example, the model results and projected decline that we’ve observed above are a stark reminder of the impacts of climate change on the forests around us. There will be no one-size-fits-all solution for mitigating the effects of climate change on European forests, but by exploring how tree species distributions are expected to change into the future, we will be better suited to identify adaptation strategies for each. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":227,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"import { getMap, setVisibility, setTimestep, getStackedBars, compareMaps, compareCSS, COLORS } from \"@nerik/eu-trees4f-components\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":212,"value":"import {mbglCompareCSS} from \"@rreusser/mapbox-gl-compare\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":215,"value":"mbglCompareCSS\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":217,"value":"compareCSS","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"1"}} 32:"$31:body"