2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"EU-Trees4F: Positive effects of climate change and warmer conditions for European trees | Erik Escoffier | Observable"}] 32:T444,As late as the 20th century, however, only cultivated trees were reported in the Alpine valleys of the Eastern Alps. [More recently, warming climate conditions and milder winters have allowed the tree to spread](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0367253006001009?via%3Dihub). Despite the rapid expansion of this tree’s range, domestic production of walnuts in Austria is not large enough to meet demands of its country’s consumers. In fact, Austria has one of the highest per capita frozen fruit and nuts consumption levels in all of Europe ([5,257 kg per 1000 persons, in 2018](https://www.globaltrademag.com/frozen-fruit-and-nut-market-in-the-eu-grew-slightly-to-2-4b/)). Austria relies heavily on imports, [importing over 388,000 Kg walnuts in 2019, with France, Italy, Germany, Hungary, and Chile as the largest suppliers](https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/AUT/year/2019/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080231). Warming temperatures and more conducive growing conditions, would mean great news for Austria’s domestic walnut industry. 33:T441,Returning back to our walnut example: while the expansion into the Alpine valleys is a boon to domestic Austrian walnut industry, this tree is [quickly invading parts of central Europe where it is considered alien](https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12827). As stated earlier, walnuts have long been present in European settlements, but their invasion into forests has been relatively recent. The combination of abandoned human settlements and agricultural land, alongside seed-dispersing animals (e.g., birds and rodents), have provided ideal conditions for the invasion of forest patches. While the warming climate conditions are providing positive economic impacts in the production of timber and nuts in some European regions, its rapid growth must be balanced with protecting native species. Understanding where the walnut is projected to spread into the future, and how both natural and human-induced dispersal can alter its course, will help policy makers make appropriate decisions on how to manage invasive species and focus on habitat restoration. 34:[] 30:{"id":"3d416e84e04a730e","slug":"eu-trees4f-positive-effects-of-climate-change-and-warmer-co","title":"EU-Trees4F: Positive effects of climate change and warmer conditions for European trees","thumbnail":"3a11d71dd46fe080ba8344a70845f2b2fdb2fc75fc0def268ead1628ea118194","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2023-03-29T12:35:19.343Z","update_time":"$D2023-04-26T13:10:27.824Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2023-03-29T12:35:19.343Z","fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"d78ef734124b1c67","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":80,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[{"id":"a1604c381bff87eb","reply_to_id":null,"content":"Needs transition","create_time":"$D2023-03-29T12:49:35.327Z","update_time":null,"resolved":false,"user":{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null}},{"id":"2e088721d35398ba","reply_to_id":null,"content":"[Placeholder: list total number of outputs for each model/tree/time-step here]\n[Placeholder: comparison map between natural and human-induced dispersal?]","create_time":"$D2023-03-29T12:49:46.935Z","update_time":null,"resolved":false,"user":{"type":"individual","id":"b383700baf15626b","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1b2d55c7609f4dec14a81aa7b0945626b05c3c89c6fbc32317adb11a8f1ff4ca","tier":null}}],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":{"id":"ba7e21575f994d70","slug":"eu-trees4f","title":"EU-Trees4F","owner":{"id":"d78ef734124b1c67","login":"nerik","name":"Erik Escoffier"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"EU-Trees4F: Positive effects of climate change and warmer conditions for European trees","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# EU-Trees4F: Positive effects of climate change and warmer conditions for European trees","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":78,"value":"__Authors: Kathryn Berger in collaboration with Fausto Perez (design) and Erik Escoffier (coding)__","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"_The impacts of climate change are not all doom and gloom. Some regions, like the Alpine valleys of Austria, are seeing a thriving expansion of the walnut. _","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"The common walnut (Juglans regia) has a long history throughout Europe and is considered an economically important tree species, revered for its timber and edible nuts. Considered a native tree species throughout much of Europe, it was introduced from western Asia through [Roman trade routes](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14614103.2022.2137648). In fact, this tree has a long history of human-assisted dispersal, rapidly expanding its spatial distribution along previously conquered Roman territories. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"viewof map1 = {\n let mapContainer = html`

`;\n yield mapContainer;\n let map = await getMap(mapContainer, [10, 45], 4, 35);\n setVisibility(map, \"juglans\", \"rcp45\", true);\n setTimestep(map, \"juglans\", \"rcp45\", 2005);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"

Interactive map: current area (2005) of Juglans regia in Spain and Europe

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":27,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"html`

${getStackedBars(\n \"chart1\",\n \"Juglans_regia\",\n \"AUT\"\n)}

Walnut (Juglans regia) in Austria

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"html`

${getStackedBars(\n \"chart2\",\n \"Juglans_regia\",\n \"ITA\"\n)}

Walnut (Juglans regia) in Italia

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"The authors behind the [EU-Trees4F study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-022-01128-5), have provided a valuable resource for the exploration of what the future of European forests will look like under projected climate change scenarios. The resulting datasets provide a prediction of European tree distributions under two different climate change scenarios and provide a detailed model of how the expansion and contraction of 67 tree species will change between now and the end of the century (2095). ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"The results of their computational efforts provide BIOMOD2 model outputs for current and future environmental conditions, for each tree species in the datasets. Two different approaches were explored, meaning users get a choice of the dataset they want to use and interpret based on what they think is more appropriate: \n\n- __Option 1__: Modeled output for each tree species under current and future environmental conditions using a climatic ensemble model (using the mean of 11 RCMs). These outputs are referred to as the climatic ensemble mean.\n- __Option 2__: Modeled output for each tree species under current and future environmental conditions using a SDM ensemble mean (that uses the consensus model for all of the single RCMs as well as output averages from the 11 SDMs). These outputs are referred to as the SDM ensemble mean. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":50,"value":"In providing both the scripts and outputs to make this work reproducible, the authors have made efforts to make sure the model results are as accurate as possible by trimming the potential future distribution maps with their native ranges. In addition, the authors have provided predicted outputs for both natural dispersal (suitable areas limited only by climate and soil) and human-induced dispersal (how predicted tree ranges may be limited by future modeled land use). Users can explore and simulate forest management scenarios under either of these of conditions - with the difference between the two dispersal scenarios described as [“the room to manoeuvre forest adaptation strategies based on the on the assisted migration of tree species.”](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-022-01128-5) ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":55,"value":"European forests are far from their natural state, having been heavily managed for crop and construction materials for millennia. Future management of forest ecosystems will require a an approach that takes into account anticipated changes in the environment, while also taking into account the social, economic and ecological benefits they bring to both humans and the natural environment. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":57,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":64,"value":"

Use the slider below to change the time step visible on the map:

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":66,"value":"viewof timestep = {\n return Inputs.range([2005, 2095], {step: 30, value: 2035})\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":68,"value":"viewof map2 = {\n let container = html`

`;\n yield container;\n let map = await getMap(container, [10, 47], 4, 0);\n setVisibility(map, \"juglans\", \"rcp45\", true);\n setVisibility(map, \"juglans\", \"rcp85\", false);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":73,"value":"html`

Possible range of Holm oak tree in Spain and Europe in ${setTimestep(\n map2,\n \"juglans\",\n \"rcp45\",\n timestep\n)} (RCP 4.5)

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"import {\n getMap,\n setVisibility,\n setTimestep,\n getStackedBars,\n compareMaps,\n compareCSS,\n COLORS\n} from \"@nerik/eu-trees4f-components\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 31:"$30:body"