2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"Impact of interest rates | ONE Campaign | Observable"}] 33:T4a8,However, we can use different data available through the IDS to estimate the expected interest payments for loans committed in a given year. For that, we use this data: - Loan commitments (PPG): this data is in current dollars and reflects the total of all loans 'committed' by a given creditor to a given borrower in a given year. - Average interest rate: this data is a weighted average of the interest rates of loans for a given debtor based on all the loans 'committed' by a given creditor in a given year. The data is weighted by the amounts committed. - Average grace period: this data is a weighted average of the grace periods of loans for a given debtor based on all the loans 'committed' by a given creditor in a given year. The data is weighted by the amounts committed. This data is needed because during grace periods no principal payments are made. - Average maturity: this data is a weighted average of the maturities of loans for a given debtor based on all the loans 'committed' by a given creditor in a given year. The data is weighted by the amounts committed. We use this data in order to calculate the expected time during which the loans will generate interest payments.34:T431,interest_plot = Plot.plot({ marginLeft: 55, width: width, color: color, x: { label: null, tickFormat: d3.format(".0f") }, y: { domain: [ 0, Math.ceil( Math.max(...expectedData.map((payment) => payment.expected_payments)) ) + 110 ] }, marks: [ Plot.barY(expectedData, { x: "year", y: "total_interest", z: "counterpart_area", fill: "counterpart_area", tip: true, title: (d) => `${d.country}\nAverage interest rate: ${d.avg_rate.toFixed( 2 )}%\nCommitted in ${d.year}: ${d.value_commitments.toLocaleString( "en-US", { minimumFractionDigits: 0, maximumFractionDigits: 1 } )}mn` }), Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.text(expectedData, { x: "year", y: "total_interest", z: "counterpart_area", dy: -6, text: (d) => `${d.total_interest.toLocaleString("en-US", { minimumFractionDigits: 0, maximumFractionDigits: 0 })}` + "mn" }) ] })35:T42d,expectedPayments = Plot.plot({ marginLeft: 55, width: width, y: { tickFormat: "s", grid: false, domain: [0, Math.max(...[interest * 0.6 + (43 - discountRate * 2), 30])] }, x: { axis: null, paddingOuter: 0.2 }, color: { legend: true, //scheme: "Dark2", domain: [ "Expected payments (original)", "Expected payments (with new interest rate)" ], range: ["#081248", "#3883e5"] }, marks: [ Plot.barY( data.filter((d) => d.year > 2015), { x: "indicator", y: "value", fill: "indicator", fx: "year", tip: true, title: (d) => `${d.indicator}\n` } ), Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.text( data.filter((d) => d.year > 2015), { x: "indicator", y: "value", z: "indicator", fx: "year", dy: -6, fontSize: 9, text: (d) => `${d.value.toLocaleString("en-US", { minimumFractionDigits: 0, maximumFractionDigits: 1 })}` + "bn" } ) ] })36:T426,Plot.plot({ marginLeft: 55, width: width, y: { tickFormat: "s", grid: false, domain: [0, Math.max(...[interest * 12 + (290 - discountRate * 35), 145])] }, x: { axis: null, paddingOuter: 0.2 }, color: { legend: true, //scheme: "Dark2", domain: [ "Expected payments (original)", "Expected payments (with new interest rate)" ], range: ["#081248", "#3883e5"] }, marks: [ Plot.barY( mics_data.filter((d) => d.year > 2015), { x: "indicator", y: "value", fill: "indicator", fx: "year", tip: true, title: (d) => `${d.indicator}\n` } ), Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.text( mics_data.filter((d) => d.year > 2015), { x: "indicator", y: "value", z: "indicator", fx: "year", dy: -6, fontSize: 9, text: (d) => `${d.value.toLocaleString("en-US", { minimumFractionDigits: 0, maximumFractionDigits: 1 })}` + "bn" } ) ] })37:T735,function calculateDiscountedInterestPayments({ row, newRate = null, discountRate = 0.05, maturityCol = "value_maturities", graceCol = "value_grace", commitmentCol = "value_commitments", interestCol = "value_rate" }) { // Calculate the number of years in which principal will be paid let paymentYears = row[maturityCol] - row[graceCol]; // Calculate the principal payment per year let principalPaymentPerYear = paymentYears <= 0 ? 0 : row[commitmentCol] / paymentYears; // Since the rate is given in percentage points, we need to divide by 100 let rateCheck = newRate ?? row[interestCol]; let rate = rateCheck != 0 ? rateCheck / 100 : 0; // Since the discountRate is given in percentage points, we need to divide by 100 discountRate = discountRate != 0 ? discountRate / 100 : 0; // Calculate interests during grace period. Discount them to present value. let gracePeriodInterest = 0; _.range(1, Math.floor(row[graceCol]) + 1).forEach((year) => { let paymentAmountGrace = row[commitmentCol] * rate; let discountFactorGrace = Math.pow(1 + discountRate, year); gracePeriodInterest += paymentAmountGrace / discountFactorGrace; }); // Calculate the period that the loan will be serviced after grace let loanPeriodAfterGrace = row[maturityCol] - row[graceCol]; // Calculate the interest payments for each year after grace let loanInterestsAfterGrace = 0; _.range(1, Math.ceil(loanPeriodAfterGrace)).forEach((year) => { let paymentAmount = (row[commitmentCol] - year * principalPaymentPerYear) * rate; let discountFactor = Math.pow(1 + discountRate, year + row[graceCol]); loanInterestsAfterGrace += paymentAmount / discountFactor; }); // Put everything together let totalInterest = gracePeriodInterest + loanInterestsAfterGrace; return totalInterest; 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31:{"id":"91483c3f85db8c11","slug":"interest-rates-impact","title":"Impact of interest rates","thumbnail":"473b34549dca6293e11318b51f6b7efda245a04d2367c4d433df0faa644176ee","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2023-06-26T07:08:17.363Z","update_time":"$D2023-08-04T14:06:32.207Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2023-06-26T07:08:17.363Z","fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"13c6fc7ef7b09bba","login":"one-campaign","name":"ONE Campaign","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c58192ca59b3a23066e98356418851adaed725e827bb52882301fc4fda17a8aa","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1146,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"0004d5be12d25201","login":"jm-rivera","name":"Jorge Rivera","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/eb9ffa1c5d630f63517176ded24be11e0764d4d4e52d473aa882a19f73422911","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"0004d5be12d25201","login":"jm-rivera","name":"Jorge Rivera","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/eb9ffa1c5d630f63517176ded24be11e0764d4d4e52d473aa882a19f73422911","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"team","id":"13c6fc7ef7b09bba","login":"one-campaign","name":"ONE Campaign","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c58192ca59b3a23066e98356418851adaed725e827bb52882301fc4fda17a8aa","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Impact of interest rates","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Impact of interest rates\n\nThis notebook explores what the International Debt Statistics data can tell us about the _additional cost_ incurred when countries borrow from private markets, compared to lending from multilateral banks.\n\n**It is work in progress.**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"## Interest rates\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"First, we'll look at the interest rates paid by different countries. \n\nThe chart below shows the (weighted) average interest rates for loans 'committed' in a given year. You can select a creditor using the drop down. The countries are represented as dots, and African countries are shown in red. The dots are sized by the total amount 'committed' by a creditor to a debtor in a given year.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"We can see some expected trends:\n- Lenders like IDA provide cheaper rates to Low income countries than they do to Lower middle income ones. IDA does a fair amount of lending at a 0.75% rate.\n- The IBRD lends almost exclusively to Lower middle income and Upper middle income countries. Their interest rates vary a lot, but they came down in the early 2000s, saw a spike in 2006-7, and another spike in the years proceeding the start of the pandemic. In recent years, some interest rates for Upper middle income countries have been lower than the rates offered by IDA to lower income countries.\n- Bonds are primarily available to the same countries as IBRD and their rates are substantially higher.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":35,"value":"The following chart shows the average rates (weighted by the size of commitments).","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":36,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":39,"value":"## Interest payments\n\nIn a given year, interest payments reflect the composition of the outstanding debt. Given different interest rates, maturities, grace periods, and borrowed amounts, the relationship between the interest rates and the interest payments in a given year isn't that straightforward.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":642,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":644,"value":"To calculate the expected interest payments we:\n- Take the amount committed and the interest rate provided\n- Assume Equal Principal Payments with a single annual payment.\n- Assume interest is paid during grace periods (but not principal)\n- Assume there will not be defaults, rescheduling, restructuring or refinancing over the lifetime of the loans.\n- Use a discount rate to discount future cash flows. We do this to reflect the fact that money today (or at the time of commitment) is worth more than the same amount of money in the future.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":646,"value":"The above allows us to answer the following question: **how much are countries expected to pay in interest on the money borrowed in a given year?**","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":649,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":653,"value":"> ### A note on Net Present Value and our use of discount rates\n> Like the IMF in its Debt Sustainability Assessments, we use Net Present Value (NPV) in our calculations. This means we take each cash flow in the repayments and we discount it back to the 'present day' (the year of the loan commitment), using a discount rate.\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":674,"value":">NPV better reflects the \"burden\" of debt than the face value. For example, US$100 million payable in 10 years is less burdensome than a debt of US$100 million payable tomorrow. The NPV takes this time factor into account. When looking at loans with maturities spanning decades this becomes especially significant.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":676,"value":">We calculate the changes in value as follows, denoting:\n>- _C_ as the committed value or principal\n>- _rate_ as the interest rate\n>- _g_ as the grace period (if any)\n>- _m_ as the maturity of the loan\n>- _DiscountRate_ as the discount rate used","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":678,"value":">The yearly principal payments (in nominal terms) are calculated as","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":605,"value":"YearlyPrincipal = \\frac{C}{m - g}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"tex","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":663,"value":"> The interest due during the grace period (in NPV terms). Unless otherwise specified, loans generally have \"grace periods\" that equal maturity.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":613,"value":"Interest_{GracePeriod} = \\sum_{y=1}^{g} \\frac{C\\cdot rate}{(1 + DiscountRate)^{y}}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"tex","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":668,"value":">The interest due after the grace period (in NPV terms), once principal payments are also being made.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":618,"value":"Interest_{AfterGrace} = \\sum_{y=1}^{m - g} \\frac{(C - y \\cdot YearlyPrincipal)\\cdot rate}{(1 + DiscountRate)^{y + g}}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"tex","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":671,"value":">And, finally, the total expected interest payments (in NPV of the year of the commitment). ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":623,"value":"Interest_{Total} = Interest_{GracePeriod} + Interest_{AfterGrace}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"tex","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":651,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":196,"value":"### Expected interest payments\n\nThe chart below shows how much a country/region is expected to pay in interest on the loans it agreed in a given year. These amounts are for the lifetime of the loan. You can also apply a discount rate—a rate of 0 means that the data stays in nominal terms.\n\nUse the controls below to select a country, creditor, and discount rate.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":129,"value":"viewof controls = Inputs.form({\n country: Inputs.select(\n Array.from(new Set(expected_payments.map((row) => row.country))).sort(\n d3.ascending\n ),\n {\n label: \"Select a country/region\"\n }\n ),\n counterpart: Inputs.select(\n Array.from(\n new Set(expected_payments.map((row) => row.counterpart_area))\n ).sort(d3.descending),\n {\n label: \"Select a creditor\",\n value: \"Bondholders\"\n }\n ),\n discountRate: Inputs.range([0, 10], {\n label: \"Discount Rate\",\n step: 0.1,\n value: 5\n })\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":232,"value":"Focusing only on **Bondholders**, we can see the interest rates being paid by African countries with market access on bonds.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":239,"value":"Plot.plot({\n color: {\n legend: true,\n label: \"Amount ($US mn)\",\n type: \"sequential\",\n scheme: \"Reds\",\n domain: [-2000, 17000]\n },\n width: width,\n x: { label: null, tickFormat: d3.format(\".0f\") },\n y: { label: \"Avg. Rate (%)\" },\n marks: [\n Plot.dot(\n expected_payments.filter(\n (d) => d.counterpart_area == \"Bondholders\" && d.country != \"Africa\"\n ),\n {\n x: \"year\",\n y: \"avg_rate\",\n z: \"country\",\n fill: \"value_commitments\",\n r: \"value_commitments\",\n opacity: 0.9,\n tip: true,\n title: (d) =>\n `${d.country}\\nAverage interest rate: ${d.avg_rate.toFixed(\n 2\n )}%\\nCommitted in ${d.year}: ${d.value_commitments.toLocaleString(\n \"en-US\",\n {\n minimumFractionDigits: 0,\n maximumFractionDigits: 1\n }\n )}mn`\n }\n )\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":529,"value":"If these countries were able to borrow from bond markets at lower rates, they would pay significantly less interest.\n\nThe chart below shows the expected interest for bonds issued between 2015-2021 for all African countries with market access. You can use the slider to see what the expected payments would be if they had borrowed at lower interest rates (with the same maturities/grace periods as the original bonds). You can also change the discount rate from the 5% default we use.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":699,"value":"viewof interest = Inputs.range([0, 12], {\n label: \"Select new interest rate\",\n step: 0.01,\n value: 1.14\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":979,"value":"viewof discountRate = Inputs.range([0, 10], {\n label: \"Discount Rate\",\n step: 0.1,\n value: 5\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":298,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":956,"value":"To illustrate the point, the World Bank IBRD lent ${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(ibrd_africa_latest[0][\"value_commitments\"]/1e9)} billion to African countries at an average rate of **${ibrd_africa_latest[0][\"avg_rate\"].toFixed(2)}% in 2021** The average rate of the ${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(bonds_africa_latest[0][\"value_commitments\"]/1e9)} billion in bonds for African countries in 2021 was **${bonds_africa_latest[0][\"avg_rate\"].toFixed(2)}%**. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":968,"value":"viewof afrInterest = Inputs.bind(\n Inputs.range([0, 12], {\n label: \"Select new interest rate\",\n step: 0.01,\n value: 1.14\n }),\n viewof interest\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1045,"value":"afrDiscountRate = Inputs.bind(\n Inputs.range([0, 10], {\n label: \"Discount Rate\",\n step: 0.1,\n value: 5\n }),\n viewof discountRate\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":546,"value":"Using a discount rate of **${discountRate}%** the bonds issued in 2021 are projected to pay **${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(data.filter(d => d.year===2021)[0].value)} billion** in interest over their lifetime. If the same money had been borrowed at **${interest}%**, African countries would pay **${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(data.filter(d => d.year===2021)[1].value)} billion** instead. That's a difference of **${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(bondsDiff)} billion in ${bondsDiff>0?\"additional\":\"fewer\"} interest** payments for new borrowing in a single year.

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":578,"value":"## Taking an income perspective (middle-income countries)\n\nWe can also do this analysis focusing on middle income countries (lower middle income + upper middle income)\n\nLike the chart above, you can use the slider to see what the expected payments would be if they had borrowed at lower interest rates (with the same maturities/grace periods as the original bonds)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":580,"value":"viewof micsInterest = Inputs.bind(\n Inputs.range([0, 12], {\n label: \"Select new interest rate\",\n step: 0.01,\n value: 1.14\n }),\n viewof interest\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1049,"value":"viewof micsDiscountRate = Inputs.bind(\n Inputs.range([0, 10], {\n label: \"Discount Rate\",\n step: 0.1,\n value: 5\n }),\n viewof discountRate\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":583,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1041,"value":"viewof textMicsInterest = Inputs.bind(\n Inputs.range([0, 12], {\n label: \"Select new interest rate\",\n step: 0.01,\n value: 1.14\n }),\n viewof micsInterest\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1054,"value":"textMicsDiscountRate = Inputs.bind(\n Inputs.range([0, 10], {\n label: \"Discount Rate\",\n step: 0.1,\n value: 5\n }),\n viewof micsDiscountRate\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1030,"value":"The World Bank IBRD lent ${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(ibrd_mics_latest[0][\"value_commitments\"]/1e9)} billion to Middle income countries at an average rate of **${ibrd_mics_latest[0][\"avg_rate\"].toFixed(2)}% in 2021** The average rate of the ${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(bonds_mics_latest[0][\"value_commitments\"]/1e9)} billion in bonds for Middle income countries in 2021 was **${bonds_mics_latest[0][\"avg_rate\"].toFixed(2)}%**. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1060,"value":"Using a discount rate of **${discountRate}%** the bonds issued in 2021 are projected to pay **${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(mics_data.filter(d => d.year===2021)[0].value)} billion** in interest over their lifetime. If the same money had been borrowed at **${interest}%**, Middle income countries would pay **${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(mics_data.filter(d => d.year===2021)[1].value)} billion** instead. That's a difference of **${d3.format(\"$,.1f\")(micsBondsDiff)} billion in ${micsBondsDiff>0?\"additional\":\"fewer\"} interest** payments for new borrowing in a single year.

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":531,"value":"---\n

\n---\n\n## Annex","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"### Data\nThis section contains the data used for the analysis in this notebook.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":8,"value":"expected_payments = await FileAttachment(\"expected_payments_2000_2021.csv\").csv({typed: \"auto\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":true,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"expected_payments","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"bonds_data = await FileAttachment(\"expected_payments_bonds@1.csv\").csv({typed: \"auto\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"bonds_data","database":"$undefined"},{"id":566,"value":"bonds_mics = await FileAttachment(\"expected_payments_bonds_mics@2.csv\").csv({typed: \"auto\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":true,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"bonds_mics","database":"$undefined"},{"id":881,"value":"africa_overview = await FileAttachment(\"africa_overview_2000_2021.csv\").csv({typed: \"auto\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":true,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"africa_overview","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1010,"value":"mics_overview = await FileAttachment(\"mics_overview_2000_2021.csv\").csv({typed: \"auto\"})","pinned":true,"hidden":true,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"mics_overview","database":"$undefined"},{"id":160,"value":"expected_data = expected_payments.filter(\n (d) =>\n d.counterpart_area == controls.counterpart && d.country == controls.country\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":711,"value":"expectedData = expected_payments\n .filter(\n (d) =>\n d.counterpart_area == controls.counterpart &&\n d.country == controls.country\n )\n .map((row) => {\n return {\n ...row,\n total_interest: calculateDiscountedInterestPayments({\n row: row,\n newRate: null,\n discountRate: controls.discountRate,\n maturityCol: \"avg_maturity\",\n graceCol: \"avg_grace\",\n commitmentCol: \"value_commitments\",\n interestCol: \"avg_rate\"\n })\n };\n })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":224,"value":"data = meltData(\n groupByYearAndSum(\n bonds_data.map((row) => {\n return {\n ...row,\n total_interest:\n calculateDiscountedInterestPayments({\n row: row,\n newRate: interest,\n discountRate: discountRate\n }) / 1e9,\n expected_payments_original:\n calculateDiscountedInterestPayments({\n row: row,\n newRate: null,\n discountRate: discountRate\n }) / 1e9\n };\n })\n ).map((row) => {\n return {\n year: row.year,\n \"Expected payments (original)\": row.expected_payments_original,\n \"Expected payments (with new interest rate)\": row.total_interest\n };\n })\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":568,"value":"mics_data = meltData(\n groupByYearAndSum(\n bonds_mics.map((row) => {\n return {\n ...row,\n total_interest:\n calculateDiscountedInterestPayments({\n row: row,\n newRate: micsInterest,\n discountRate: micsDiscountRate\n }) / 1e3,\n expected_payments_original:\n calculateDiscountedInterestPayments({\n row: row,\n newRate: null,\n discountRate: micsDiscountRate\n }) / 1e3\n };\n })\n ).map((row) => {\n return {\n year: row.year,\n \"Expected payments (original)\": row.expected_payments_original,\n \"Expected payments (with new interest rate)\": row.total_interest\n };\n })\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1012,"value":"bonds_mics_latest = mics_overview.filter(\n (d) => d.counterpart_area === \"Bondholders\" && d.year == 2021\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1101,"value":"bonds_africa_latest = africa_overview.filter(\n (d) => d.counterpart_area === \"Bondholders\" && d.year == 2021\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":890,"value":"ibrd_africa_latest = africa_overview.filter(\n (d) => d.counterpart_area === \"World Bank-IBRD\" && d.year == 2021\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1014,"value":"ibrd_mics_latest = mics_overview.filter(\n (d) => d.counterpart_area === \"World Bank-IBRD\" && d.year == 2021\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":939,"value":"bondsDiff = data.filter((d) => d.year === 2021)[0].value -\n data.filter((d) => d.year === 2021)[1].value","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1016,"value":"micsBondsDiff = mics_data.filter((d) => d.year === 2021)[0].value -\n mics_data.filter((d) => d.year === 2021)[1].value","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":688,"value":"### Tools","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":147,"value":"color = ({\n domain: [\n \"World Bank-IDA\",\n \"World Bank-IBRD\",\n \"United States\",\n \"United Kingdom\",\n \"Japan\",\n \"Italy\",\n \"Germany, Fed. Rep. of\",\n \"France\",\n \"European Union\",\n \"European Investment Bank\",\n \"European Development Fund (EDF)\",\n \"China\",\n \"Bondholders\",\n \"African Export-Import Bank\",\n \"African Dev. Bank\"\n ],\n range: [\n \"#081248\",\n \"#10827b\",\n \"#3883e5\",\n \"#26a644\",\n \"#7123f0\",\n \"#464170\",\n \"#1d0e7a\",\n \"#04393b\",\n \"#5a1c72\",\n \"#09557b\",\n \"#0f7277\",\n \"#26a644\",\n \"#10827b\",\n \"#464170\",\n \"#04393b\"\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":406,"value":"function meltData(data) {\n let meltedData = [];\n\n data.forEach((row) => {\n for (let key in row) {\n if (key !== \"year\") {\n meltedData.push({ year: row.year, indicator: key, value: row[key] });\n }\n }\n });\n\n return meltedData;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":400,"value":"function groupByYearAndSum(data) {\n // Group and sum by year\n let grouped = data.reduce((acc, row) => {\n acc[row.year] = acc[row.year] || { year: row.year };\n\n for (let key in row) {\n if (key !== \"year\" && !isNaN(row[key])) {\n acc[row.year][key] = (acc[row.year][key] || 0) + row[key];\n }\n }\n\n return acc;\n }, {});\n\n // Convert the object back to an array\n return Object.values(grouped);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":593,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W38","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"