2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"Net flows to developing countries | ONE Campaign | Observable"}] 33:[{"id":"6c7c94bf1985f5be53ec0cb431b72ffdaf8287aa4b55819e0d240fb8c50316b3ceebfa860f5b4d592938fa895c8f89d64e4a10c66604491604619afa1f0cbf98","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/6c7c94bf1985f5be53ec0cb431b72ffdaf8287aa4b55819e0d240fb8c50316b3ceebfa860f5b4d592938fa895c8f89d64e4a10c66604491604619afa1f0cbf98","name":"net_flows_full@4.parquet","type":"application/octet-stream","lastModified":1712754029057.326,"size":3359371},{"id":"cc1b6803a0a533d5e2ae77f2dec4d9619c751edd9e666d81e5e5c04aecbea7f0d14215ed4fef94ab8cb4409106d47b567a05c371c51a0d385c31aa7daa744b06","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/cc1b6803a0a533d5e2ae77f2dec4d9619c751edd9e666d81e5e5c04aecbea7f0d14215ed4fef94ab8cb4409106d47b567a05c371c51a0d385c31aa7daa744b06","name":"scatter_totals@7.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1712754036257.985,"size":642842}] 31:{"id":"99f57327c485dbb7","slug":"net-flows","title":"Net flows to developing countries","thumbnail":"9b331580768166240f2b060982324476554e78eeab202fbbdd22183e1f18cf7b","access_level":"unlisted","create_time":"$D2024-01-22T14:18:46.010Z","update_time":"$D2024-07-22T10:35:23.692Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"13c6fc7ef7b09bba","login":"one-campaign","name":"ONE Campaign","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c58192ca59b3a23066e98356418851adaed725e827bb52882301fc4fda17a8aa","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1921,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"0004d5be12d25201","login":"jm-rivera","name":"Jorge Rivera","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/eb9ffa1c5d630f63517176ded24be11e0764d4d4e52d473aa882a19f73422911","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"0004d5be12d25201","login":"jm-rivera","name":"Jorge Rivera","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/eb9ffa1c5d630f63517176ded24be11e0764d4d4e52d473aa882a19f73422911","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"team","id":"13c6fc7ef7b09bba","login":"one-campaign","name":"ONE Campaign","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c58192ca59b3a23066e98356418851adaed725e827bb52882301fc4fda17a8aa","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Net flows to developing countries","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Net flows to developing countries","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":3,"value":"This notebook describes the methodology and data used for our data dive on financial flows to developing countries, [available here](https://data.one.org/data-dives/net-finance-flows-to-developing-countries/).","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"For this research, we use data from the [World Bank's International Debt Statistics (IDS)](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/international-debt-statistics) database and the OECD DAC [Creditor Reporting System (CRS)](https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=crs1) database.\n\nData and code to replicate the analysis are available on this [GitHub repository](https://github.com/ONEcampaign/net_flows).","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"## A note on the data","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":18,"value":"In terms of **inflows** we focus on:\n- Debt disbursements of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) long-term debt. This includes debt from bilateral, multilateral and private creditors.\n- Grant disbursements (from providers of Official Development Assistance who report to the OECD DAC). ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":21,"value":"In terms of **outflows** we focus on:\n- Debt service payments (including both principal and interest payments)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1814,"value":"For this paper, **net flows** mean PPG debt and grant inflows minus debt service payments on PPG debt.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":948,"value":"All debt is Public and Publicly Guaranteed long-term debt. In other words, \"private\" debt (for example) is debt public debt owed to private creditors.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1848,"value":"**Note**: we only include countries with available data on inflows and outflows. We exclude Russia, China, and Ukraine from the list of debtors/recipients, given the significant resources flowing to and from these countries, related to conflict and geopolitics.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":809,"value":"---","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":610,"value":"### Behind the scenes of\n# _Net finance flows to developing countries turned negative in 2023_","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1812,"value":"The first chart in the data dive presents the historical trend in _net flows_ to countries and groups of countries. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1820,"value":"Data from 2000-2022 is based on reported data on inflows (from IDS and OECD CRS) and outflows (IDS). Data for 2023-2025 is based on inflow projections from ONE, and debt service projections (outflows) from the IDS database.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1817,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1827,"value":"### Projected inflows methodology\n\nProjecting inflows data, based on historical data alone, is complicated. Over longer periods of time, inflows follow either an increasing or decreasing trend. But there are significant year-on-year fluctuations, particularly when looking at the data for specific debtors and creditors.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1829,"value":"Our objective with the projections was to capture the current observed trends, in particular since 2020. In most cases, the COVID-19 pandemic marked a structural break in the data. So it makes sense to focus on what is happening to inflows since then. The main challenge is that there are only 3 years of data (2020, 2021, and 2022) available.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1836,"value":"We project inflows based on the linear trend between 2020 and 2022. We do that through linear regressions for each debtor/recipient country, based on total inflows from the different creditor/provider types (bilateral, multilateral, private, and China). We look at China separately given how significant inflows from official and private lenders are, and given how much Chinese lending has changed in recent years. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1840,"value":"We run the regressions at the creditor/provider type level (instead of regressions for each creditor/provider) in an effort to smooth out the variability that may exist in flows from individual creditors/providers to individual debtor/recipients. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1838,"value":"In short, we run 4 separate regressions for each debtor/recipient country. Total projected inflows are the sum of projected inflows for each of the creditor/provider types. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1843,"value":"All of these are pretty significant assumptions. We assume that flows follow a linear trend. We assume that 2020 marks a structural break in the data, and that the inflows trend is different from that point onwards. We assume that the current trends will continue for at least 2023, 2024 and 2025. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1845,"value":"We make all of these assumptions in an effort to highlight what inflows may look like if the current observed trends were to continue into the future. It is clear that urgent action is required to reverse these trends, either by providing additional inflows, or by debt action that reduces the debt service burden in the coming years.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1855,"value":"## Countries in net negative transfers","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1857,"value":"The second chart in the paper highlights the number of countries that paid more in debt service than they received in new debt or grant disbursements.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1859,"value":"In order to better visualise the data, we present it as _net flows as a share of GDP_. This also highlights how significant net flows are compared to the size of the economy.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1852,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1869,"value":"### Average yearly debt service payments","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1871,"value":"The next chart shows average yearly debt service payments for different periods in the last decade.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1875,"value":"China is a big part of the change for many countries, so we have highlighted it separately (combining official bilateral and private creditors).","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1873,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1880,"value":"## Inflows by source","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1882,"value":"The final chart breaks down historical inflows by creditor/provider type. As with previous charts, inflows combines debt disbursements (PPG, long term), and grants.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1884,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1864,"value":"

\n\n---\n\n

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":807,"value":"## Tools","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":946,"value":"The following are a collection of tools used by these notebook to process and render the data.\nThere's not much to see here unless you're building the analysis.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W33","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"