2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Analysis of Eth Pyramid | Ilia Naryzhny | Observable"}] 32:T43a,data = {var rawdata = d3.nest() .key(f("hash")) .rollup(function(leaves){ var ret = leaves[0]; ret.payout = leaves.length==1?0:+leaves[1].value; return ret; }) .entries(txlist.result.concat(txlistInternal.result)).map(f("value")); rawdata = rawdata.filter(function (d) {return !d.contractAddress && d.isError=="0"}); var invested = 0; var lastBlock = 6287141; var allowed = 0; var payoutTotal = 0; rawdata.forEach(function(d) { var thisBlock = +d.blockNumber; var db = thisBlock - lastBlock; allowed+= db*invested*4/(5900*100*gw); d.allowed = allowed; lastBlock = thisBlock; invested+=+d.value; d.invested=invested/gw; payoutTotal+=+d.payout; d.payoutTotal=payoutTotal/gw; d.balance=d.invested-d.payoutTotal; }); return rawdata; }33:T480,{ var last = data[data.length-1]; var k = last.invested*4/(5900*100); var xBlocks = (last.invested-last.allowed)/(1*k); var xDays = Math.round(xBlocks/5900); //Lets try estimate optimistically var blocksBack = +last.blockNumber-3*5900; var prev = data[0]; for(var i = data.length-1; i>=0; i--) { if(+data[i].blockNumberForecasting

Very pessimistically

Days till day X : ${xDays}
You can take around ${100*xDays/25}% money if you invest today

Optimistically

Days till day X : ${oxDays}
You can take around ${100*oxDays/25}% money if you invest today

Overgrow factor: ${Math.round(100*ko/k)}%.

As bigger than 100% - the better. Area below 120% - red one!

`; }34:[] 30:{"id":"bc296166a6c76f5b","slug":"analysis-of-eth-pyramid","title":"Analysis of Eth Pyramid","thumbnail":"0ea8be6fec4b82e8c52f6d7b37b789dddf1740ccfc795921184d51006e46cbfa","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2018-09-16T22:29:04.590Z","update_time":"$D2018-09-17T03:36:47.147Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2018-09-17T00:40:48.583Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":5,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"57e6b6a6a6a292f4","login":"phantomydn","name":"Ilia Naryzhny","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/39fe61d9856e2acdf2c3dd618697d2f0bade9a476b54e60cfcd328939a14ebd3","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":232,"publish_version":232,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"73e04c112f9de8c0","login":"phantomydn","name":"Ilia Naryzhny","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/39fe61d9856e2acdf2c3dd618697d2f0bade9a476b54e60cfcd328939a14ebd3","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"73e04c112f9de8c0","login":"phantomydn","name":"Ilia Naryzhny","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/39fe61d9856e2acdf2c3dd618697d2f0bade9a476b54e60cfcd328939a14ebd3","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":8,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Analysis of Eth Pyramid","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Analysis of Eth Pyramid\nLink to the Etherscan: https://etherscan.io/address/0x7b307c1f0039f5d38770e15f8043b3dd26da5e8f\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"md`Let load transactions from etherscan`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"txlist = d3.json(\"https://api.etherscan.io/api?module=account&action=txlist&address=0x7b307c1f0039f5d38770e15f8043b3dd26da5e8f&startblock=6287141&endblock=99999999&sort=asc&apikey=8ZRNEW99H7X41CUKXD12XU4VXYDISQD9TG\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":17,"value":"md`For payouts we need to retrieve also internal transactions`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":8,"value":"txlistInternal = d3.json(\"https://api.etherscan.io/api?module=account&action=txlistinternal&address=0x7b307c1f0039f5d38770e15f8043b3dd26da5e8f&startblock=6287141&endblock=99999999&sort=asc&apikey=8ZRNEW99H7X41CUKXD12XU4VXYDISQD9TG\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":23,"value":"md`We need to merge this transactions to be able to view payouts as well`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":25,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":183,"value":"md`Lets also figure out main players. Sorted out by percentage of they already got back`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":168,"value":"players = d3.nest()\n .key(f(\"from\"))\n .rollup(function(leaves) {\n var ret = {\n player: leaves[0].from,\n txs: leaves.length,\n invested: d3.sum(leaves, f(\"value\")) / gw,\n withdrawn: d3.sum(leaves, f(\"payout\")) / gw,\n firstBlock: d3.min(leaves, f(\"blockNumber\")),\n firstTimeStamp: d3.min(leaves, f(\"timeStamp\"))\n };\n ret.payedPercentage = 100*ret.withdrawn/ret.invested;\n return ret;\n })\n .entries(data).map(f(\"value\")).sort(function(a,b) {return b.payedPercentage - a.payedPercentage})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":66,"value":"c3({\n size: {\n height: 640\n },\n data : {\n json : data,\n keys: {\n x: 'blockNumber', // it's possible to specify 'x' when category axis\n value: ['invested', 'allowed', 'payoutTotal', 'balance'],\n }\n },\n axis: {\n y: {\n min: 0\n }\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":78,"value":"md`## How to read this graph\n\n* **Invested** - total sum of invested \n* **Payout Total** - total sum of payed out to investors\n* **Allowed** - maximum amount of eth which all investors can withdraw at this moment\n* **Balance** - balance at the particular moment\n\nThe most insteresting part will began when **Allowed** will reach **Balance**\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":192,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"md`The same data, but as table`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"{ var table = html`\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n

Block	Value	Payout	Invested	Allowed	Payout Total	Balance

`\nvar selector = d3.select(table).select(\"tbody\").selectAll(\"tr\").data(data);\n var newTr = selector.enter().append(\"tr\");\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(f(\"blockNumber\"));\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(function(d, i) { return d.value/gw; });\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(function(d, i) { return d.payout/gw; });\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(f(\"invested\"));\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(f(\"allowed\"));\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(f(\"payoutTotal\"));\n newTr.append(\"td\").text(function(d, i) { return d.invested-d.payoutTotal; });\n return table;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":84,"value":"md`## Appending`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":10,"value":"md`Lets load required libraries and functions`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":51,"value":"import {c3} from \"@mbostock/c3\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":20,"value":"function f(name) {return function(d) {return d[name];}}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"gw = 1000000000000000000 ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1"}} 31:"$30:body"