2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Covid-19: Mechanismen der Pandemie | Republik | Observable"}] 32:T956,md` Mit möglichst einfachen und nachvollziehbaren Hochrechnungen versuchen wir die Mechanismen der Pandemie und die Situation in der Schweiz zu erklären. Primär betrachten wir die Zeitverzögerung zwischen Ansteckung und Test sowie die Bedeutung der Massnahmen. _Ein Wissenschaftler sagte während der Recherche zu uns:_ Man kann bei der Einschätzung von so einem Modell zwei Fehler machen, die wir zu vermeiden versucht haben: 1. Man nimmt die Aussage als absolut wahr. 2. Man sagt sich zu schnell es sei ja nur ein Modell. Fett gesetzte Zahlen sind unten interaktiv anpassbar. #### Annahmen zur Verbreitung: - wir gehen von den Zahlen im BAG Situationsbericht aus, bis zum ${dateMonthFormat( lastSickValue.date )} (XLS, aufsummiert, Stand ${d3.timeFormat('%d. %B %H:%M')( sickDataBagStatusDate )}) - **${infectedOffset} Tage** vorher, am ${dateMonthFormat( mainSeries.lastInfectedValue.date )}, waren bereits ${swissFormat.count( mainSeries.lastInfectedValue.value )} Personen angesteckt – gleich viele wie ${infectedOffset} Tage später positiv getestet wurden und vom BAG vermeldet - bis zu den ersten Massnahmen des Bundesrats am 13. März verdoppelten sich die Ansteckungen innerhalb von **${formatPreciseCount( duplicationDays )} Tagen** - Annahme: Zwischen dem 13. März – erste Massnahmen treten in Kraft, e.g. zu Veranstaltungen und zum Schulbetrieb – und dem 17. März – Schliessungen von Restaurants, Läden etc. – nahm die Ansteckungsrate linear ab, und zwar auf den Parameter «Effektivität der Massnahmen» hin - Seit dem 17. März stecken sich **${formatPercent( preventionByMeasurements )} weniger** Personen neu an (Effektivität der Massnahmen) ${ mainSeries.useLatestRate ? ` - Die Ansteckungsrate hat sich im Verlauf der Massnahmen weiter verlangsamt. `.trim() : '' } #### Annahmen zu Spitälern - **${icuBeds} Intensivplätze** sind so schnell wie nötig für Covid-19-Patientinnen verfügbar - **${formatPrecisePercent( needIcus )}** der hochgerechnet positiv getesteten Personen brauchen **${icuDelay} Tage** später einen Platz auf der Intensivstation - Die Personen bleiben jeweils **${icuDays} Tage** auf der Intensivstation #### Das ergibt folgende Kurven: - in grün: Infizierte - in blau: Erkrankte, die positiv getestet wurden - in violett: benötigte Plätze auf einer Intensivstation `33:T4dd,chart.render({ config: { ...commonChartConfigLog, xTicks: [ ymd.format(startDate), '2020-03-17', mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload ? ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date) : ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.date), ymd.format( mainSeries.projectedInfectedValues[ mainSeries.projectedInfectedValues.length - 1 ].date ) ] .filter(Boolean) .filter((d, i, all) => all.findIndex(h => h === d) === i), yAnnotations: [ mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload ? { x: ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date), value: mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.value, label: `Überlastung am ${dateMonthFormat( mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date )}, wären nötig: `, dy: '1.5em' } : { x: ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.date), value: mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.value, label: `Höchepunkt am ${dateMonthFormat( mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.date )}: `, dy: '1.5em' } ].filter(Boolean) }, values: getValues({ ...mainSeries, filterZero: true }) })34:T4c9,chartLinear.render({ config: { ...commonChartConfig, xTicks: [ ymd.format(startDate), '2020-03-17', mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload ? ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date) : ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.date), ymd.format( mainSeries.projectedInfectedValues[ mainSeries.projectedInfectedValues.length - 1 ].date ) ] .filter(Boolean) .filter((d, i, all) => all.findIndex(h => h === d) === i), yAnnotations: [ mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload ? { x: ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date), value: mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.value, label: `Überlastung am ${dateMonthFormat( mainSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date )}, wären nötig: `, dy: '-0.7em' } : { x: ymd.format(mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.date), value: mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.value, label: `Höchepunkt am ${dateMonthFormat( mainSeries.projectedIcuPeak.date )}: `, dy: '-0.7em' } ].filter(Boolean) }, values: getValues(mainSeries) })35:T578,md` ### Globale Paramter Diese Parameter gelten für alle Charts auf dieser Seite. Diese Zahlen haben wir anhand von wissenschaftlichen Publikationen sowie dank Feedback von Wissenschaftern und Behörden erarbeitet. Verändern Sie diese nur, wenn Sie wissen weshalb – und schliessen Sie kein voreiliges Fazit.

Verdoppelung vor den Massnahmen

${bind( html``, viewof duplicationDays )} innerhalb von ${bindText( html``, viewof duplicationDays, formatPreciseCount )} Tagen

Platz auf einer Intensivstation

${bind( html``, viewof needIcus )} wird von ${bindText( html``, viewof needIcus, formatPrecisePercent )} der Fälle benötigt
(hier kann eine grössere Rate angegeben werden basierend auf Demografie und Dunkelziffer)
${bind( html``, viewof icuDays )} ⌀ ${bindText( html``, viewof icuDays, Number )} Tage auf der Intensivstation
${bind( html``, viewof icuDelay )} ⌀ ${bindText( html``, viewof icuDelay, Number )} Tage zwischen Test und Einlieferung auf die Intensivstation

`36:T884,md`Quellen: - positiv getestete Fälle bis ${dateMonthFormat( lastSickValue.date )} via [BAG, Daten des Situationsberichts (XLS, Stand ${d3.timeFormat( '%d. %B %H:%M' )( sickDataBagStatusDate )})](https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html) - 10 Tagen zwischen Ansteckung und positivem Test: [6 Tage für die Entwicklung der Symptome](https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported), [optimistische 4 Tage für den sogenannten reporting delay](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221). - 74% weniger Ansteckungen ab dem 17. März, Christian Althaus: «Das berechnete Modell legt nahe, dass die aktuellen Massnahmen in der Schweiz die Verbreitung des Virus um etwa 70 Prozent verringern. Damit würde die notwendige Kapazität auf Intensivstationen Anfang bis Mitte April ihren Höhepunkt erreichen, könnte jedoch unter der kritischen Grenze von 1000 Betten bleiben.» – Christian Althaus hat am Sonntagabend nochmals neue Werte errechnet, die Effektivität der Massnahmen in der Schweiz schätzt er nun auf 74, nicht 70 Prozent. - 1200 Plätze auf der Intensivstation, BAG auf Anfrage der Republik - Verdoppelung vor den Massnahmen innerhalb von 6.0 Tagen, Mittel von Schätzung von Christian Althaus: 4 bis 8 Tagen. - 5% brauchen Intensivplatz, BAG auf Anfrage der Republik Welcher Anteil der Personen, die in der Schweiz positiv auf Covid-19 getestet wurden, brauchen einen Platz auf der Intensivstation? «Im Moment liegt die Rate bei rund 5%.» Angabe vom 25. März, um 09 Uhr. Liegt nahe an 4,7%, Wert aus China, [Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51): «Case severity: Critical 2,087 (4.7)». - [10 Tage auf die Intensivstation](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) `37:Td00,getSeries = ({ infectedOffset, preventionByMeasurements, icuBeds }) => { const infectedBackStartDate = d3.timeDay.offset(startDate, infectedOffset); const infectedValues = sickDataBag .filter(d => d.date >= infectedBackStartDate) .map(d => ({ ...d, date: d3.timeDay.offset(d.date, -infectedOffset) })); const lastInfectedValue = infectedValues[infectedValues.length - 1]; const initialRate = 1 / duplicationDays; const rateAfterMeasurements = initialRate * (1 - preventionByMeasurements); const latestRate = d3.mean( [] .concat(infectedValues) .reverse() .slice(0, 4) .map(d => d.value) .map((d, i, all) => d / all[i + 1] - 1) .filter(Boolean) ); const useLatestRate = latestRate < rateAfterMeasurements && lastInfectedValue.date > mostMeasurements; const getRate = d3 .scaleTime() .domain( [ // ab 14. über 100 Personen verboten, Schulen geschlossen firstMeasurements, // ab 17. Ausserordentliche Lage: Restaurants, Bars & co. geschlossen, ab 21. über 5 verboten mostMeasurements ].concat(useLatestRate ? lastInfectedValue.date : []) ) .range( [initialRate, rateAfterMeasurements].concat( useLatestRate ? latestRate : [] ) ) .clamp(true); const projectedInfectedValues = d3.timeDay .range(d3.timeDay.offset(lastInfectedValue.date, 1), preliminaryEnd) .reduce((all, date) => { const prev = all[all.length - 1]; all.push({ date, value: prev.value + prev.value * getRate(date) }); return all; }, [].concat(infectedValues)); const projectedCaseValues = projectedInfectedValues .slice(infectedValues.length - 1, -infectedOffset) .map(d => ({ ...d, date: d3.timeDay.offset(d.date, infectedOffset) })); const projectedIcuCases = [] .concat(sickDataBag.map(d => ({ ...d, value: d.value * needIcus }))) .concat( projectedCaseValues .slice(1) .map(d => ({ ...d, value: d.value * needIcus })) ) .reduce((cases, d) => { return cases.concat( d3.range(0, Math.floor(d.value - cases.length)).map(() => ({ start: d3.timeDay.offset(d.date, icuDelay), end: d3.timeDay.offset(d.date, icuDays + icuDelay) })) ); }, []); const projectedIcuCaseValues = [] .concat(sickDataBag) .concat(projectedCaseValues.slice(1)) .map(d => { return { date: d.date, value: projectedIcuCases.filter( c => c.start <= d.date && c.end >= d.date ).length }; }); const projectedIcuOverload = projectedIcuCaseValues.find( d => d.value >= icuBeds ); const projectedIcuPeakValue = d3.max( projectedIcuCaseValues.map(d => d.value) ); const projectedIcuPeak = projectedIcuCaseValues.find( d => d.value === projectedIcuPeakValue ); const maxValue = d3.max( [] .concat(projectedCaseValues) .concat(projectedInfectedValues) .concat(projectedIcuCaseValues) .map(d => d.value) ); return { projectedCaseValues, projectedInfectedValues, projectedIcuCaseValues, projectedIcuCases, lastInfectedValue, useLatestRate, projectedIcuOverload, projectedIcuPeak, maxValue }; }38:[] 30:{"id":"1b8c95bdcf410f62","slug":"covid-19-mechanismen-der-pandemie","title":"Covid-19: Mechanismen der Pandemie","thumbnail":"c9cfd092fa60c1c081e6d262666c3f72189e9df8441ee2fa3f79d6ff0682c670","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-03-22T11:23:21.261Z","update_time":"$D2020-05-01T19:48:59.883Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-03-29T23:28:51.107Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"9902a5f66dbe4be2","login":"republik","name":"Republik","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/8fb6cc5dc4a56bfe0f0ceca7112b14ee0bce7c1150717745c77fd4fe99574e4e","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1975,"publish_version":1975,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"c4e93a5033368f9d","login":"tpreusse","name":"Thomas Preusse","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/46a7c93d53a38c9ba8fd14db2602bd48d9fa0c8a5ec4151f1f69d1cca9983959","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"9902a5f66dbe4be2","login":"republik","name":"Republik","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/8fb6cc5dc4a56bfe0f0ceca7112b14ee0bce7c1150717745c77fd4fe99574e4e","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Covid-19: Mechanismen der Pandemie","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Covid-19: Mechanismen der Pandemie`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1881,"value":"md`Eine Andrea Arežina, Marie-José Kolly und Thomas Preusse Kollaboration. Lesen Sie jetzt: _[«Reicht der Platz auf den Intensivstationen?»](https://www.republik.ch/2020/03/30/reicht-der-platz-auf-den-intensivstationen)_`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":719,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":38,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":86,"value":"md`\n\n

Zeit zwischen Ansteckung und positivem Test

\n${bind(\n html``,\n viewof infectedOffset\n)} ${bindText(html``, viewof infectedOffset, Number)} Tage
\n
\n\n

Effektivität der Massnahmen

\n${bind(\n html``,\n viewof preventionByMeasurements\n)} ${bindText(\n html``,\n viewof preventionByMeasurements,\n formatPercent\n)} weniger Ansteckungen
ab dem 17. März
\n

Plätze auf einer Intensivstation

\n${bind(\n html``,\n viewof icuBeds\n)} ${bindText(\n html``,\n viewof icuBeds,\n Number\n)} sind verfügbar für Covid-19-Patientinnen
\n

\n\n
\n\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1785,"value":"md`#### Lineare Skala`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":944,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1035,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":125,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1896,"value":"md`Das Modell eignet sich nicht zur Betrachtung von langfristigen Zeiträumen. Nutzen Sie dafür Epidemiologische Modelle.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":579,"value":"md`\nEpidemiologische Modelle von Wissenschaftern aus der Schweiz:\n- [Christian Althaus, ISPM Bern](https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/swiss-epidemic-model/)\n- [Richard Neher, Biozentrum Basel](https://neherlab.org/covid19/)\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1236,"value":"mainSeries = getSeries({ infectedOffset, preventionByMeasurements, icuBeds })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1549,"value":"mainSeries.projectedIcuCaseValues","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1482,"value":"defaultValues = ({\n infectedOffset: 10,\n preventionByMeasurements: 0.74,\n icuBeds: 1200\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1050,"value":"md`---\n\n### Steps\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1291,"value":"stepsSeries = getSeries(defaultValues)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1283,"value":"md`#### 1. Epikurve BAG`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1054,"value":"renderChart(\n {\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfig,\n labelFilter: undefined,\n endLabelWidth: 160\n },\n values: getValues({})\n },\n { copy: true }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1074,"value":"md`#### 2. Schon X Tage infiziert`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1077,"value":"renderChart(\n {\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfig,\n labelFilter: `false`,\n colorLegend: true,\n colorLegendValues: [labels.sick, labels.projectedInfected],\n xTicks: [\n ymd.format(sickDataBag[0].date),\n ymd.format(\n d3.timeDay.offset(lastSickValue.date, -defaultValues.infectedOffset)\n ),\n ymd.format(lastSickValue.date)\n ],\n endLabelWidth: 160,\n paddingTop: 10,\n xAnnotations: [\n {\n x1: ymd.format(\n d3.timeDay.offset(lastSickValue.date, -defaultValues.infectedOffset)\n ),\n x2: ymd.format(lastSickValue.date),\n value: lastSickValue.value,\n label: `bereits vor ${defaultValues.infectedOffset} Tagen infiziert`\n }\n ]\n },\n values: getValues({\n projectedInfectedValues: stepsSeries.projectedInfectedValues.filter(\n (d, i) => i < sickDataBag.length - defaultValues.infectedOffset\n )\n })\n },\n { copy: true }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1130,"value":"md`#### 2.5 mit vollständiger Projektion der Infizierten`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1134,"value":"renderChart(\n {\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfig,\n labelFilter: undefined,\n endLabelWidth: 160,\n labelFilter: `datum.type !== \"${labels.projectedSick}\"`\n // yNice: 0\n // yTicks: [0, 2500, 5000, 7500, 10000]\n },\n values: getValues({\n projectedCaseValues: stepsSeries.projectedCaseValues,\n infectedValues: stepsSeries.infectedValues,\n projectedInfectedValues: stepsSeries.projectedInfectedValues,\n projectedIcuCaseValues: stepsSeries.projectedIcuCaseValues\n })\n },\n { copy: true }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1081,"value":"md`#### 3. mit Intensivpflege bedürftig`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1084,"value":"renderChart(\n {\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfig,\n colorLegend: true,\n colorLegendValues: [\n labels.sick,\n labels.projectedInfected,\n labels.needIcu\n ],\n labelFilter: `datum.type === \"${labels.needIcu}\"`,\n endLabelWidth: 160,\n xTicks: [\n ymd.format(sickDataBag[0].date),\n ymd.format(\n d3.timeDay.offset(lastSickValue.date, -defaultValues.infectedOffset)\n ),\n ymd.format(lastSickValue.date)\n ]\n },\n values: getValues({\n projectedInfectedValues: stepsSeries.projectedInfectedValues.filter(\n (d, i) => i < sickDataBag.length - defaultValues.infectedOffset\n ),\n projectedIcuCaseValues: stepsSeries.projectedIcuCaseValues,\n maxDate: lastSickValue.date\n })\n },\n { copy: true }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1090,"value":"md`#### 4. Log`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1095,"value":"renderChart(\n {\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfigLog,\n labelFilter: undefined, // `datum.type !== \"${labels.projectedInfected}\"`,\n endLabelWidth: 160,\n xTicks: [\n ymd.format(sickDataBag[0].date),\n ymd.format(\n d3.timeDay.offset(lastSickValue.date, -defaultValues.infectedOffset)\n ),\n ymd.format(lastSickValue.date)\n ]\n },\n values: getValues({\n projectedInfectedValues: stepsSeries.projectedInfectedValues.filter(\n (d, i) => i < sickDataBag.length\n ),\n projectedIcuCaseValues: stepsSeries.projectedIcuCaseValues,\n maxDate: lastSickValue.date,\n filterZero: true\n })\n },\n { copy: true }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1099,"value":"md`#### Verzögerung`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1329,"value":"viewof infectedOffset2 = new View(defaultValues.infectedOffset)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1334,"value":"chartOffset = initChart({ copy: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1107,"value":"md`

Zeit zwischen Ansteckung und positivem Test

\n${bind(\n html``,\n viewof infectedOffset2\n)} ${bindText(html``, viewof infectedOffset2, Number)} Tage`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1449,"value":"offsetSeries = combineSeries({\n value: getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n infectedOffset: infectedOffset2\n }),\n lower: getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n infectedOffset: 5\n }),\n upper: getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n infectedOffset: 20\n })\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1103,"value":"chartOffset.render({\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfigLog,\n band: 'value',\n bandLegend: 'Bandbreite des Sliders'\n },\n values: getValues({\n ...offsetSeries,\n filterZero: true\n })\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1374,"value":"md`#### Spitalbetten`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1377,"value":"viewof icuBeds2 = new View(defaultValues.icuBeds)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1380,"value":"chartIcuBeds = initChart({ copy: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1616,"value":"icuSeries = getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n icuBeds: icuBeds2\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1389,"value":"md`

Intensivplätze

\n${bind(\n html``,\n viewof icuBeds2\n)} ${bindText(\n html``,\n viewof icuBeds2,\n Number\n)} sind verfügbar für Covid-19
`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1383,"value":"chartIcuBeds.render({\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfigLog,\n yTicks: commonChartConfigLog.yTicks\n .filter(t => t !== 1000)\n .concat([600, 1600]),\n yAnnotations: [\n icuSeries.projectedIcuOverload\n ? {\n x: ymd.format(icuSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date),\n value: icuBeds2,\n label: `Überlastung am ${dateMonthFormat(\n icuSeries.projectedIcuOverload.date\n )}, `,\n dy: '-0.7em'\n }\n : {\n value: icuBeds2,\n dy: '-0.7em'\n }\n ]\n },\n values: getValues({\n ...icuSeries,\n filterZero: true\n })\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1398,"value":"md`#### Effektivität der Massnahmen`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1408,"value":"viewof preventionByMeasurements2 = new View(defaultValues.preventionByMeasurements)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1404,"value":"chartPrevention = initChart({ copy: true })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1453,"value":"preventionSeries = combineSeries({\n value: getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n preventionByMeasurements: preventionByMeasurements2\n }),\n lower: getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n preventionByMeasurements: 0.95\n }),\n upper: getSeries({\n ...defaultValues,\n preventionByMeasurements: 0.05\n })\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1402,"value":"md`

Effektivität der Massnahmen

\n${bind(\n html``,\n viewof preventionByMeasurements2\n)} ${bindText(\n html``,\n viewof preventionByMeasurements2,\n formatPercent\n)} weniger Ansteckungen ab dem 17. März`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1413,"value":"chartPrevention.render({\n config: {\n ...commonChartConfigLog,\n band: 'value',\n bandLegend: 'Bandbreite des Sliders'\n },\n values: getValues({\n ...preventionSeries,\n filterZero: true\n })\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1111,"value":"md`---`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":496,"value":"firstMeasurements = ymd.parse('2020-03-13') // ab 14. über 100 Personen verboten, Schulen geschlossen","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":502,"value":"mostMeasurements = ymd.parse('2020-03-17') // ab 17. Ausserordentliche Lage: Restaurants, Bars & co. geschlossen, ab 21. über 5 verboten","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":925,"value":"preliminaryEnd = ymd.parse('2020-04-13')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":767,"value":"labelData = [\n { key: 'sick', label: 'positiv Getestete', color: 'rgba(31, 119, 180, 1)' },\n {\n key: 'projectedSick',\n label: 'hochgerechnet Positive',\n color: 'rgba(31, 119, 180, 0.9)'\n },\n {\n key: 'projectedInfected',\n label: 'bereits Infizierte',\n color: 'rgba(127,191,123, 0.9)'\n },\n {\n key: 'needIcu',\n label: 'auf der Intensivstation',\n color: 'rgba(175,141,195, 1)'\n }\n]","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":781,"value":"labels = labelData.reduce((map, item) => {\n map[item.key] = item.label;\n return map;\n}, {})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":39,"value":"chart = initChart()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":946,"value":"chartLinear = initChart()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"commonChartConfig = ({\n type: 'Line',\n height: 240,\n sort: 'none',\n color: 'type',\n colorSort: 'none',\n unit: 'Personen',\n numberFormat: ',.0f',\n x: 'date',\n timeParse: '%Y-%m-%d',\n timeFormat: '%d.%m.',\n colorMap: labelData.reduce((map, item) => {\n map[item.label] = item.color;\n return map;\n }, {}),\n labelFilter: 'false',\n stroke: `datum.type !== \"${labels.sick}\"`\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1058,"value":"commonChartConfigLog = ({\n ...commonChartConfig,\n colorLegend: true,\n colorLegendValues: labelData\n .map(d => d.label)\n .filter(l => l !== labels.projectedSick),\n yScale: 'log',\n yTicks: [\n 1,\n 10,\n 100,\n 1000,\n 10000,\n 100000,\n mainSeries.maxValue > 1000000 && 1000000,\n mainSeries.maxValue > 10000000 && 10000000\n ].filter(Boolean)\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1195,"value":"$37","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1219,"value":"combineSeries = ({ lower, value, upper }) => {\n const combineValues = key =>\n value[key].map((d, i) => ({\n value_lower: lower[key][i].value,\n value_upper: upper[key][i].value,\n ...d\n }));\n\n return {\n value,\n lower,\n upper,\n ...value,\n projectedCaseValues: combineValues('projectedCaseValues'),\n projectedInfectedValues: combineValues('projectedInfectedValues'),\n projectedIcuCaseValues: combineValues('projectedIcuCaseValues'),\n maxValue: d3.max([lower.maxValue, value.maxValue, upper.maxValue])\n };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1457,"value":"extendLowerUpperOfSeries = series => {\n const first = series[0];\n const combineValues = key =>\n first[key].map((d, i) => ({\n ...d,\n value_lower: d3.min(\n series.map(s => s[key][i].value_lower || s[key][i].value)\n ),\n value_upper: d3.max(\n series.map(s => s[key][i].value_upper || s[key][i].value)\n )\n }));\n\n return {\n ...first,\n projectedCaseValues: combineValues('projectedCaseValues'),\n projectedInfectedValues: combineValues('projectedInfectedValues'),\n projectedIcuCaseValues: combineValues('projectedIcuCaseValues')\n };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1213,"value":"getValues = ({\n projectedCaseValues = [],\n projectedInfectedValues = [],\n projectedIcuCaseValues = [],\n minDate,\n maxDate,\n filterZero\n}) => {\n const filter = d =>\n (!minDate || d.date >= minDate) && (!maxDate || d.date <= maxDate);\n return []\n .concat(sickDataBag.filter(filter).map(mapToString(labels.sick)))\n .concat(\n projectedCaseValues.filter(filter).map(mapToString(labels.projectedSick))\n )\n .concat(\n projectedInfectedValues\n .filter(filter)\n .map(mapToString(labels.projectedInfected))\n )\n .concat(\n projectedIcuCaseValues.filter(filter).map(mapToString(labels.needIcu))\n )\n .map(\n filterZero\n ? d => (d.value !== \"0\" ? d : { ...d, value: undefined })\n : d => d\n );\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":902,"value":"lastSickValue = sickDataBag[sickDataBag.length - 1]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":238,"value":"mapToString = type => d => ({\n type,\n ...d,\n date: ymd.format(d.date),\n value: String(d.value),\n value_lower: d.value_lower ? String(d.value_lower) : String(d.value),\n value_upper: d.value_upper ? String(d.value_upper) : String(d.value)\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":172,"value":"startDate = ymd.parse('2020-03-01')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"viewof infectedOffset = new View(defaultValues.infectedOffset)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"viewof duplicationDays = new View(6)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":470,"value":"viewof preventionByMeasurements = new View(\n defaultValues.preventionByMeasurements\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"viewof icuBeds = new View(defaultValues.icuBeds)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":802,"value":"viewof icuDays = new View(10)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1544,"value":"viewof icuDelay = new View(4)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":293,"value":"viewof needIcus = new View(0.05)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":88,"value":"formatPreciseCount = d3.format('.1f')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":610,"value":"formatPrecisePercent = d3.format('.1%')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":704,"value":"formatPercent = d3.format('.0%')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"ymdSpecifier = '%Y-%m-%d'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":149,"value":"ymd = ({\n specifier: ymdSpecifier,\n parse: d3.timeParse(ymdSpecifier),\n format: d3.timeFormat(ymdSpecifier)\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":642,"value":"dateMonthFormat = swissTime.format('%d. %B')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"md`### Base Data`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1737,"value":"md`Details im [@republik/sars-cov-2-covid-19-data](https://observablehq.com/@republik/sars-cov-2-covid-19-data) Notebook.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1724,"value":"sickDataBag = sickDataBagUnfiltered\n .filter(d => d.date >= startDate)\n .filter(d => d.date < preliminaryEnd)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"md`### Dependencies`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":695,"value":"swissFormat = {\n const thousandSeparator = '\\u2019';\n const swissNumbers = d3.formatLocale({\n decimal: ',',\n thousands: thousandSeparator,\n grouping: [3],\n currency: ['CHF\\u00a0', '']\n });\n const chf4Format = swissNumbers.format('$.0f');\n const chf5Format = swissNumbers.format('$,.0f');\n const chfFormat = value => {\n if (String(Math.round(value)).length > 4) {\n return chf5Format(value);\n }\n return chf4Format(value);\n };\n\n const count4Format = swissNumbers.format('.0f');\n const count5Format = swissNumbers.format(',.0f');\n const countFormat = value => {\n if (String(Math.round(value)).length > 4) {\n return count5Format(value);\n }\n return count4Format(value);\n };\n\n return {\n percent: swissNumbers.format('.2%'),\n percentRound: swissNumbers.format('.0%'),\n decimal: swissNumbers.format('.1f'),\n dataDecimal: d3.format('.5f'),\n count: countFormat,\n chf: chfFormat\n };\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":638,"value":"swissTime = d3.timeFormatLocale({\n dateTime: '%A, der %e. %B %Y, %X',\n date: '%d.%m.%Y',\n time: '%H:%M:%S',\n periods: ['AM', 'PM'],\n days: [\n 'Sonntag',\n 'Montag',\n 'Dienstag',\n 'Mittwoch',\n 'Donnerstag',\n 'Freitag',\n 'Samstag'\n ],\n shortDays: ['So', 'Mo', 'Di', 'Mi', 'Do', 'Fr', 'Sa'],\n months: [\n 'Januar',\n 'Februar',\n 'März',\n 'April',\n 'Mai',\n 'Juni',\n 'Juli',\n 'August',\n 'September',\n 'Oktober',\n 'November',\n 'Dezember'\n ],\n shortMonths: [\n 'Jan',\n 'Feb',\n 'Mrz',\n 'Apr',\n 'Mai',\n 'Jun',\n 'Jul',\n 'Aug',\n 'Sep',\n 'Okt',\n 'Nov',\n 'Dez'\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":59,"value":"d3 = require('d3')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1709,"value":"import {\n sickDataBag as sickDataBagUnfiltered,\n sickDataBagStatusDate\n} from '@republik/sars-cov-2-covid-19-data'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":10,"value":"import { initChart, renderChart } from '@republik/charts'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":13,"value":"import { View, bind, disposal } from \"@mbostock/synchronized-views\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"function bindText(element, view, format = d => d) {\n const update = () => element.textContent = format(view.value);\n view.addEventListener(\"input\", update);\n disposal(element).then(() => view.removeEventListener(\"input\", update));\n return update(), element;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W38","stdlib":"1"}} 31:"$30:body"