2e:null 2f:["$","title",null,{"children":"2024 Presidential Election: Betting Market Odds | Bobby Reedy | Observable"}] 34:Tc6a,html`

${(() => { const filteredCandidates = pres_2024 .filter(candidate => candidate.lastTradePrice * 100 >= 3); // Determine the highest lastTradePrice const maxOdds = Math.max(...filteredCandidates.map(candidate => candidate.lastTradePrice * 100)); return filteredCandidates .sort((a, b) => b.lastTradePrice - a.lastTradePrice) .map(candidate => { const odds = candidate.lastTradePrice * 100; const change = (candidate.lastTradePrice - candidate.lastClosePrice) * 100; // Format the change value const formatChange = change => { if (change === 0) return `-`; return change > 0 ? `+${change.toFixed(1)}` : change.toFixed(1); }; // Determine the styling class based on the candidate's name and whether they have the highest odds let partyClass = ''; if (odds === maxOdds) { partyClass = candidate.name === "Donald Trump" ? 'eln-republican' : candidate.name === "Kamala Harris" ? 'eln-democrat' : ''; } // Determine the border color based on the candidate's name const borderColor = candidate.name === "Donald Trump" ? '#c8102e' : candidate.name === "Kamala Harris" ? '#0056a0' : 'transparent'; return html` `; }); })()}

Candidate	PredictIt Odds (Daily Change)
${candidate.name}	${odds.toFixed(0)}% (${formatChange(change)})

As of ${timeFormat}

Source: PredictIt

`35:T661,html`

${(() => { const odds = winner === 'Donald Trump' ? trumpLastTradePrice : winner === 'Kamala Harris' ? kamalaLastTradePrice : winner === 'Robert F. Kennedy Jr.' ? kennedyLastTradePrice : 0; if (odds <= 40) { return `No candidate is a clear favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election.`; } else if (odds <= 55) { return `The 2024 Presidential Election is a toss-up.`; } return `According to the latest betting markets, ${winner} is ${odds >= 95 ? 'almost certain' : odds >= 85 ? 'very likely' : odds >= 70 ? 'likely' : odds >= 56 ? 'slightly favored' : 'slightly favored'} to win the 2024 Presidential Election with a ${odds}% chance of winning.`; })()}

`36:T88f,html`

${["GA", "WI"].map(state => { const data = state === "GA" ? ga_2024 : wi_2024; const republican = data.find(d => d.name === "Republican"); const democrat = data.find(d => d.name === "Democratic"); const republicanOdds = republican.lastTradePrice * 100; const republicanChange = (republican.lastTradePrice - republican.lastClosePrice) * 100; const democratOdds = democrat.lastTradePrice * 100; const democratChange = (democrat.lastTradePrice - democrat.lastClosePrice) * 100; const maxOdds = Math.max(republicanOdds, democratOdds); const formatChange = change => { if (change === 0) return `-`; return change > 0 ? `+${change.toFixed(1)}` : change.toFixed(1); }; return html` `; })}

State	Republican Odds (Daily Change)	Democratic Odds (Daily Change)
${state}	${republicanOdds.toFixed(0)}% (${formatChange(republicanChange)})	${democratOdds.toFixed(0)}% (${formatChange(democratChange)})

As of ${timeFormat}

Source: PredictIt

`37:T5b3,Plot.plot({ x: { title: null, label: "PredictIt Odds", tickFormat: d => `${(d * 100).toFixed(0)}%`, }, y: { label: null, tickSize: 0, tickPadding: 8, tickRotate: 0, domain: ec_data .map(d => ({ name: d.name.length > 20 ? d.name.slice(0, 20) + '...' : d.name, displayOrder: d.displayOrder })) .sort((a, b) => a.displayOrder - b.displayOrder) .map(d => d.name) }, marginLeft: 130, marginBottom: 40, height: ec_data.length * 30 + 80, width: 600, color: { legend: false, }, grid: true, marks: [ Plot.barX( ec_data.map(d => ({ name: d.name.length > 20 ? d.name.slice(0, 20) + '...' : d.name, lastTradePrice: d.lastTradePrice, party: d.name.includes("GOP") ? "GOP" : "Dems" })), { y: "name", x: "lastTradePrice", fill: d => d.party === "GOP" ? "#c8102e" : "#0056a0", stroke: "white", strokeWidth: 1 } ), Plot.text( ec_data.map(d => ({ name: d.name.length > 20 ? d.name.slice(0, 20) + '...' : d.name, lastTradePrice: d.lastTradePrice })), { x: d => d.lastTradePrice + 0.007, y: "name", text: d => `${(d.lastTradePrice * 100).toFixed(0)}%`, fill: "black", fontWeight: "bold", fontSize: 14 } ) ], style: { fontFamily: "Helvetica, serif", fontSize: "14px", } }) 38:Tb18,html` `39:[] 32:{"id":"cddf42048f6fcd71","slug":"2024-presidential-election-betting-market-odds","title":"2024 Presidential Election: Betting Market Odds","thumbnail":"782beb6656e9b863e8e8ca9480f06dcedafe87f0294bd31bc871f409ba98e629","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2024-08-09T20:13:21.764Z","update_time":"$D2024-10-31T14:55:39.004Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2024-09-14T04:42:55.212Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"3b88b27becc4bbe6","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":605,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"78c022c35bbdd3b7","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"3b88b27becc4bbe6","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"78c022c35bbdd3b7","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"2024 Presidential Election: Betting Market Odds","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":533,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":263,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":480,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":477,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":316,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":340,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"

\n## Code and Data","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":29,"value":"pi_data = d3.json(\"https://api.allorigins.win/raw?url=https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/\", {cache: \"no-cache\"});","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":83,"value":"trumpLastTradePrice = Math.round(\n 100 * pi_data.markets\n .flatMap(market => \n market.contracts\n .filter(contract => market.id === 7456 && contract.name === \"Donald Trump\")\n .map(contract => contract.lastTradePrice)\n )[0]\n);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":245,"value":"kennedyLastTradePrice = Math.round(\n 100 * pi_data.markets\n .flatMap(market => \n market.contracts\n .filter(contract => market.id === 7456 && contract.name === \"Robert Kennedy Jr.\")\n .map(contract => contract.lastTradePrice)\n )[0]\n);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":567,"value":"kamalaLastTradePrice = Math.round(\n 100 * pi_data.markets\n .flatMap(market => \n market.contracts\n .filter(contract => market.id === 7456 && contract.name === \"Kamala Harris\")\n .map(contract => contract.lastTradePrice)\n )[0]\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":269,"value":"winner = (trumpLastTradePrice > kamalaLastTradePrice && trumpLastTradePrice > kennedyLastTradePrice) ? \"Donald Trump\" :\n (kamalaLastTradePrice > trumpLastTradePrice && kamalaLastTradePrice > kennedyLastTradePrice) ? \"Kamala Harris\" :\n (kennedyLastTradePrice > trumpLastTradePrice && kennedyLastTradePrice > kamalaLastTradePrice) ? \"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.\" : \n \"No clear leader\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"timeStamp = pi_data.markets\n .filter(market => market.id === 7456)\n .map(market => market.timeStamp)[0];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"timeFormat = d3.timeFormat(\"%B %d, %I:%M %p\")(new Date(timeStamp)) + ' EST';\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":436,"value":"pres_2024 = pi_data.markets\n .filter(market => market.id === 7456)\n .map(market => market.contracts)[0];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":440,"value":"Inputs.table(pres_2024)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":329,"value":"ec_data = pi_data.markets\n .filter(market => market.id === 8077)\n .map(market => market.contracts)[0];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":338,"value":"Inputs.table(ec_data)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":466,"value":"ga_2024 = pi_data.markets\n .filter(market => market.id === 8072)\n .map(market => market.contracts)[0];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":469,"value":"wi_2024 = pi_data.markets\n .filter(market => market.id === 8076)\n .map(market => market.contracts)[0];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":102,"value":"$38","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W39","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 33:"$32:body"

2024 Presidential Election: Betting Market Odds

Betting Market Odds by State

Electoral College Margin in 2024