2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"2024 Presidential Election Forecasts | Bobby Reedy | Observable"}] 33:T2429,html`

${(() => { // Filter for Electoral College and Kamala Harris const filteredCandidates = electionData .filter(item => item.State === 'Electoral College'); const silver = silver_odds; const econ = economist_odds; return filteredCandidates.map(candidate => { const fteOdds = (candidate.FTE * 100).toFixed(0); const standardOdds = (candidate.Standard * 100).toFixed(0); const ddhqOdds = (candidate.DDHQ * 100).toFixed(0); const rwhOdds = (candidate.RWH * 100).toFixed(0); const silverOdds = (silver * 100).toFixed(0); const econOdds = (econ * 100).toFixed(0); const fteColor = harrisColorScale(candidate.FTE); const standardColor = harrisColorScale(candidate.Standard); const ddhqColor = harrisColorScale(candidate.DDHQ); const rwhColor = harrisColorScale(candidate.RWH); const silverColor = harrisColorScale(silver); const econColor = harrisColorScale(econ); return html` `; }); })()} ${(() => { // Filter for Electoral College and Kamala Harris const filteredCandidates = electionData .filter(item => item.State === 'Electoral College'); const silver = silver_odds; const econ = economist_odds return filteredCandidates.map(candidate => { const fteOdds = (99.7 - (candidate.FTE * 100)).toFixed(0); const standardOdds = (99.5 - (candidate.Standard * 100)).toFixed(0); const ddhqOdds = (100 - (candidate.DDHQ * 100)).toFixed(0); const rwhOdds = (99.5 - (candidate.RWH * 100)).toFixed(0); const silverOdds = (99.6 - (silver * 100)).toFixed(0); const econOdds = (100 - (econ * 100)).toFixed(0); const fteColor = trumpColorScale(0.997 - candidate.FTE); const standardColor = trumpColorScale(0.995 - candidate.Standard); const ddhqColor = trumpColorScale(1 - candidate.DDHQ); const rwhColor = trumpColorScale(0.995 - candidate.RWH); const silverColor = trumpColorScale(0.996 - silver); const econColor = trumpColorScale(1 - econ); return html` `; }); })()}

Candidate	538 Odds	JHK Odds	DDHQ Odds	RWH Odds	*Silver Odds	*Econ Odds
Kamala Harris	${fteOdds}%	${standardOdds}%	${ddhqOdds}%	${rwhOdds}%	${silverOdds}%	${econOdds}%
Donald Trump	${fteOdds}%	${standardOdds}%	${ddhqOdds}%	${rwhOdds}%	${silverOdds}%	${econOdds}%

*Silver Bulletin odds from tweet on 11/4, state odds for Silver Bulletin and The Economist are behind a paywall.

` 34:T18cd,state_barchart = { // Set height based on the selected model option const height = models === 'Model Avg.' ? 150 : 300; // Filter state_stacked_data based on selected model option const filtered_data = models === 'Model Avg.' ? state_stacked_data.filter(d => d.model === 'Model Avg.') // || d.model === 'JHK' : state_stacked_data.filter(d => d.model != 'Model Avg.'); const svg = d3.create("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .attr("width", width) .attr("height", height); // Define scales based on competitive view const xDomain = competitive === 'Competitive' ? [215, 325] : [0, 538]; const x = d3.scaleLinear() .domain(xDomain) .range([0, width - 95]); const y = d3.scaleBand() .domain(filtered_data.map(d => d.model)) .range([40, height - 40]) .padding(0.1); // Define axes based on competitive view const xAxis = d3.axisBottom(x) .ticks(competitive === 'Competitive' ? 10 : 10) .tickSize(6) .tickSizeOuter(0) .tickFormat(d => d % 50 === 0 ? d : d); let tooltipOpen = false; function clearTooltip() { tooltipOpen = false; svg.selectAll("rect").style("stroke", "none"); tooltip.style("visibility", "hidden") .style("pointer-events", "none"); } // Add "270 votes to win" label svg.append("text") .attr("x", x(269) + 70) .attr("y", 20) .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", "14px") .attr("font-family", "helvetica") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .attr("fill", "black") .text("270 votes to win"); const modelGroups = svg.selectAll(".model-group") .data(filtered_data) .join("g") .attr("class", "model-group") .attr("transform", d => `translate(70, ${y(d.model)})`); // Append bars for each state modelGroups.selectAll(".bar") .data(d => d.data) .join("rect") .attr("x", d => competitive === 'Competitive' ? Math.max(x(d.cumulativeVotes - d.electoralVotes), x(215)) : x(d.cumulativeVotes - d.electoralVotes)) .attr("y", 0) .attr("width", d => competitive === 'Competitive' ? Math.max(0, x(d.cumulativeVotes) - Math.max(x(d.cumulativeVotes - d.electoralVotes), x(215))) : Math.max(0, x(d.cumulativeVotes) - x(d.cumulativeVotes - d.electoralVotes))) .attr("height", y.bandwidth()) .attr("fill", d => electionColorScale(d.value)) .on("mouseover", function(event, d) { if (!tooltipOpen) { d3.select(this).style("stroke", "black").style("stroke-width", "1px"); tooltip.style("visibility", "visible") .html(`${d.name} - ${d.electoralVotes} Electoral Votes
Harris Odds: ${Math.round(d.value * 100)}%`); } }) .on("mousemove", function(event) { if (!tooltipOpen) { const tooltipWidth = tooltip.node().offsetWidth; const tooltipHeight = tooltip.node().offsetHeight; const pageX = event.pageX; const pageY = event.pageY; const xPosition = pageX + tooltipWidth + 20 > window.innerWidth ? pageX - tooltipWidth - 10 : pageX + 10; const yPosition = pageY + tooltipHeight + 20 > window.innerHeight ? pageY - tooltipHeight - 10 : pageY + 10; tooltip.style("top", yPosition + "px") .style("left", xPosition + "px"); } }) .on("mouseout", function() { if (!tooltipOpen) { d3.select(this).style("stroke", "none"); tooltip.style("visibility", "hidden"); } }) .on("click", function(event, d) { if (tooltipOpen) { clearTooltip(); } else { clearTooltip(); tooltipOpen = true; d3.select(this).style("stroke", "black").style("stroke-width", "1px"); tooltip.style("visibility", "visible") .html(`${d.name} - ${d.electoralVotes} Electoral Votes
Harris Odds: ${Math.round(d.value * 100)}%`) .style("top", event.pageY + "px") .style("left", event.pageX + "px") .style("pointer-events", "auto"); } }); modelGroups.selectAll(".label") .data(d => d.data) .join("text") .attr("x", d => { const barStart = x(d.cumulativeVotes - d.electoralVotes); const barWidth = x(d.cumulativeVotes) - barStart; const textWidth = 10; return barWidth > textWidth ? barStart + barWidth / 2 : -10; }) .attr("y", y.bandwidth() / 2) .attr("dy", "-0.35em") .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("fill", "black") .attr("font-size", "8px") .attr("font-family", "Arial") .style("display", d => { const barWidth = x(d.cumulativeVotes) - x(d.cumulativeVotes - d.electoralVotes); return barWidth > 10 ? null : "none"; }) .each(function(d) { const stateName = d.name; const textElement = d3.select(this); stateName.split("").forEach((letter, i) => { textElement.append("tspan") .attr("x", textElement.attr("x")) .attr("dy", i === 0 ? "0em" : "1em") .text(letter); }); }); modelGroups.append("text") .attr("x", width - 92) .attr("y", y.bandwidth() / 2) .attr("dy", ".35em") .attr("text-anchor", "start") .attr("fill", "#0b70db") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .attr("font-size", "12px") .attr("font-family", "Arial") .text(d => { const harrisElectoralVotes = d.data .filter(s => s.value >= 0.5) .reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.electoralVotes, 0); return competitive === 'Competitive' ? "" : ` ${harrisElectoralVotes}`; }); svg.append("g") .attr("class", "x-axis") .attr("transform", `translate(70,${height - 40})`) .call(xAxis); svg.append("g") .attr("class", "y-axis") .attr("transform", `translate(70, 0)`) .call(d3.axisLeft(y).ticks(10).tickSize(0)) .selectAll("text") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .attr("font-size", "11px"); svg.append("line") .attr("x1", x(269) + 70) .attr("x2", x(269) + 70) .attr("y1", 30) .attr("y2", height - 40) .attr("stroke", "black") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "4 2"); return svg.node(); } 35:T738,html` ${models_table === 'All Models' ? html` ${electionData .filter(d => competitive_table === 'All States' || isCompetitive(d)) .map(d => html` `)}

State	538	JHK	DDHQ	RWH
${d.State}	${(d.FTE * 100).toFixed(0)}%	${(d.Standard * 100).toFixed(0)}%	${(d.DDHQ * 100).toFixed(0)}%	${(d.RWH * 100).toFixed(0)}%

` : html` ${electionData .filter(d => competitive_table === 'All States' || isCompetitive(d)) .map(d => html` `)}

State	Model Avg.
${d.State}	${(d.ModelAvg * 100).toFixed(0)}%

`}
`36:T129f,plot = { const xAxisLabel = { '538': '538 Harris Odds', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Harris Odds', 'JHK': 'JHK Harris Odds', 'RWH': 'RWH Harris Odds', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Harris Odds' }; const yAxisLabel = { '538': '538 Harris Odds', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Harris Odds', 'JHK': 'JHK Harris Odds', 'RWH': 'RWH Harris Odds', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Harris Odds' }; const xValue = d => { switch (x_axis) { case '538': return d.FTE; case 'DDHQ': return d.DDHQ; case 'JHK': return d.Standard; case 'RWH': return d.RWH; case 'Model Avg.': return d.ModelAvg; default: return d.FTE; } }; const yValue = d => { switch (y_axis) { case '538': return d.FTE; case 'DDHQ': return d.DDHQ; case 'JHK': return d.Standard; case 'RWH': return d.RWH; case 'Model Avg.': return d.ModelAvg; default: return d.DDHQ; } }; const annotationText = { '538': { '538': '538 Favors Harris', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Favors Harris', 'JHK': 'JHK Favors Harris', 'RWH': 'RWH Favors Harris', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Favors Harris' }, 'DDHQ': { '538': '538 Favors Harris', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Favors Harris', 'JHK': 'JHK Favors Harris', 'RWH': 'RWH Favors Harris', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Favors Harris' }, 'JHK': { '538': '538 Favors Harris', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Favors Harris', 'JHK': 'JHK Favors Harris', 'RWH': 'RWH Favors Harris', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Favors Harris' }, 'RWH': { '538': '538 Favors Harris', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Favors Harris', 'JHK': 'JHK Favors Harris', 'RWH': 'RWH Favors Harris', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Favors Harris' }, 'Model Avg.': { '538': '538 Favors Harris', 'DDHQ': 'DDHQ Favors Harris', 'JHK': 'JHK Favors Harris', 'RWH': 'RWH Favors Harris', 'Model Avg.': 'Model Avg. Favors Harris' } }; const favoredTextX = annotationText[x_axis][y_axis]; const favoredTextY = annotationText[y_axis][x_axis]; return Plot.plot({ x: { label: xAxisLabel[x_axis], domain: [0, 1], tickFormat: d => `${(d * 100).toFixed(0)}%`, tickSize: 0, tickPadding: 8, labelOffset: 40, }, y: { label: yAxisLabel[y_axis], domain: [0, 1], tickFormat: d => `${(d * 100).toFixed(0)}%`, tickSize: 0, tickPadding: 8, labelOffset: 80, labelRotate: -90, }, marginLeft: 80, marginBottom: 80, height: 500, width: 650, color: { legend: false, }, grid: true, marks: [ Plot.dot( mergedData.filter(d => d.Abbreviation !== ""), { x: xValue, y: yValue, r: 15, fill: d => electionColorScale(xValue(d)), stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 1, opacity: 0.7, title: d => `${d.Abbreviation}: Electoral Votes ${d.electoralVotes}, ${x_axis} ${Math.round(xValue(d) * 100)}%, ${y_axis} ${Math.round(yValue(d) * 100)}%`, } ), Plot.dot( mergedData.filter(d => d.Abbreviation === ""), { x: xValue, y: yValue, r: 5, fill: d => electionColorScale(xValue(d)), stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 1, symbol: "star", // Ensure "star" symbol is used for Electoral College title: d => `${d.Abbreviation}: Electoral Votes ${d.electoralVotes}, ${x_axis} ${Math.round(xValue(d) * 100)}%, ${y_axis} ${Math.round(yValue(d) * 100)}%`, } ), Plot.line( [{x: 0, y: 0}, {x: 1, y: 1}], { x: "x", y: "y", stroke: "black", strokeWidth: 2, strokeDasharray: "4 2", } ), Plot.text( mergedData.filter(d => d.Abbreviation !== ""), { x: xValue, y: yValue, text: d => d.Abbreviation, dy: 0, fontSize: 10, fill: "black", textAnchor: "middle", } ), // Annotations with text and arrows Plot.text( [{x: 0.3, y: 0.7, text: favoredTextX}, {x: 0.7, y: 0.3, text: favoredTextY}], { x: d => d.x, y: d => d.y, text: d => d.text, fontSize: 14, fontWeight: "bold", fill: "black", fontFamily: "Helvetica", textAnchor: "middle", dy: -15, dx: 10, } ) ], style: { fontFamily: "Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, serif", fontSize: "16px", } }); } 37:Tbd9,html`

${modelsData.map(model => { const expCorrectCalls = model.ExpcorrectCalls.toFixed(1); const correctCalls = model.correctCalls.toFixed(1); const exppercentCorrect = ((model.ExpcorrectCalls / model.totalCalls) * 100).toFixed(1); const correctPercent = (model.correctPercent * 100).toFixed(1); // Define a color based on the percentCorrect value let backgroundColor; if (correctPercent < 90) { // Light green for lower values backgroundColor = `rgba(144, 238, 144, ${(correctPercent - 90) / (93 - 90)})`; // From light green to darker green } else { // Darker green for higher values backgroundColor = `rgba(34, 139, 34, ${(correctPercent - 91) / (100 - 90)})`; // From dark green to a deeper shade } return html` `; })}

Model	# of Contests	# Exp. Correct Calls	# Correct Calls	% Exp. Correct Calls	% Correct Calls
${model.name}	${model.totalCalls}	${expCorrectCalls}	${correctCalls}	${exppercentCorrect}%	${correctPercent}%

`; 38:T534,modelsData = [ { name: "FiveThirtyEight", ExpcorrectCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => (d.State !== "Electoral College" ? (d.FTE < 0.5 ? 1 - d.FTE : d.FTE) : 0)), totalCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => d.State !== "Electoral College" ? 1 : 0), correctCalls: 52, correctPercent: 0.92857 }, { name: "JHK", ExpcorrectCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => (d.State !== "Electoral College" ? (d.Standard < 0.5 ? 1 - d.Standard : d.Standard) : 0)), totalCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => d.State !== "Electoral College" ? 1 : 0), correctCalls: 54, correctPercent: 0.96428 }, { name: "Race to WH", ExpcorrectCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => (d.State !== "Electoral College" ? (d.RWH < 0.5 ? 1 - d.RWH : d.RWH) : 0)), totalCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => d.State !== "Electoral College" ? 1 : 0), correctCalls: 52, correctPercent: 0.92857 }, { name: "Decision Desk", ExpcorrectCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => (d.State !== "Electoral College" ? (d.DDHQ < 0.5 ? 1 - d.DDHQ : d.DDHQ) : 0)), totalCalls: d3.sum(electionData, d => d.State !== "Electoral College" ? 1 : 0), correctCalls: 55, correctPercent: 0.98214 }, { name: "Silver Bulletin", ExpcorrectCalls: 51.5, totalCalls: 56, correctCalls: 54, correctPercent: 0.96428 } ]; 39:T1434,function make_tilegram() { let div = d3 .create('div') .style("width", width) .style("height", `${height}px`) .style('overflow', 'hidden'); let svg = div .append('svg') .style('overflow', 'hidden') .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]); let map_obj, hex_data, boundary_data; if (map_type == 'Together') { map_obj = tiles; hex_data = tiles; boundary_data = tile_boundaries; } else if (map_type == 'Broken') { map_obj = broken_tiles; hex_data = broken_tiles; boundary_data = broken_tile_boundaries; } let proj = d3 .geoIdentity() .reflectY(true) .fitSize([width, height], map_obj); let path = d3.geoPath().projection(proj); let map = svg.append('g'); map .selectAll("path.tile") .data(hex_data.features) .join("path") .attr('class', 'tile') .attr('d', path) .style("fill", function(d) { let fips = d.id; let info = info_map.get(fips); let p; if (shade_by == "538") { p = info.FTE; return d3.scaleLinear([0, 0.5, 1], ["#ea5353", "#fafafa", "#3487e0"])(p); } else if (shade_by == "JHK") { p = info.Standard; return d3.scaleLinear([0, 0.5, 1], ["#ea5353", "#fafafa", "#3487e0"])(p); } else if (shade_by == "DDHQ") { p = info.DDHQ; return d3.scaleLinear([0, 0.5, 1], ["#ea5353", "#fafafa", "#3487e0"])(p); } else if (shade_by == "RWH") { p = info.RWH; return d3.scaleLinear([0, 0.5, 1], ["#ea5353", "#fafafa", "#3487e0"])(p); } }) .attr('data-state', d => d.id) .attr("stroke-width", '0.5px') .attr("stroke", "white") .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round"); // Add state abbreviation text above each hexagon map .selectAll("text.abbr.black") .data(hex_data.features) .join("text") .attr("class", "abbr") .attr("x", d => path.centroid(d)[0]) .attr("y", d => path.centroid(d)[1]) .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", () => { // Dynamically set font size based on screen width let screenWidth = window.innerWidth; let fontSize = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([300, 1000]) .range([5, 10]) .clamp(true); return `${fontSize(screenWidth)}px`; }) .attr("font-family", "helvetica") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .attr("stroke", "black") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("fill", "black") .text(d => { let fips = d.id; let info = info_map.get(fips); return info ? info.abbr : ''; }); // Add state abbreviation text above each hexagon map .selectAll("text.abbr.white") .data(hex_data.features) .join("text") .attr("class", "abbr") .attr("x", d => path.centroid(d)[0]) .attr("y", d => path.centroid(d)[1]) .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", () => { // Dynamically set font size based on screen width let screenWidth = window.innerWidth; let fontSize = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([300, 1000]) .range([5, 10]) .clamp(true); return `${fontSize(screenWidth)}px`; }) .attr("font-family", "helvetica") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr("fill", "white") .text(d => { let fips = d.id; let info = info_map.get(fips); return info ? info.abbr : ''; }); map .selectAll("path.boundary") .data(boundary_data.features) .join("path") .attr('class', 'boundary') .attr('d', path) .style('fill', 'black') .style("fill-opacity", 0) .attr("stroke-width", '1px') .attr("stroke", "black") .attr("stroke-linejoin", "round") .attr('data-state', d => d.id) .on('pointerenter mouseenter', function(evt) { let copy = this.cloneNode(true); copy.setAttribute('stroke', 'black'); copy.setAttribute('stroke-width', '6px'); copy.setAttribute('class', 'temp'); copy.addEventListener('mouseleave', function() { map.selectAll('.temp').remove(); }); let fips = d3.select(evt.target).attr('data-state'); let info = info_map.get(fips); // Format FTE and Standard as percentages and round them let FTE_percentage = Math.round(info.FTE * 100) + '%'; let Standard_percentage = Math.round(info.Standard * 100) + '%'; let DDHQ_percentage = Math.round(info.DDHQ * 100) + '%'; let RWH_percentage = Math.round(info.RWH * 100) + '%'; tippy(copy, { allowHTML: true, duration: 100, maxWidth: 420, theme: 'light', content: `

State	Votes	538	JHK	DDHQ	RWH
${info.name}	${info.electoralVotes}	${FTE_percentage}	${Standard_percentage}	${DDHQ_percentage}	${RWH_percentage}

` }); map.append(() => copy); }); return div.node(); } 3a:T808,electoralVotes = [ { state: "Alabama", votes: 9 }, { state: "Alaska", votes: 3 }, { state: "Arizona", votes: 11 }, { state: "Arkansas", votes: 6 }, { state: "California", votes: 54 }, { state: "Colorado", votes: 10 }, { state: "Connecticut", votes: 7 }, { state: "Delaware", votes: 3 }, { state: "District Of Columbia", votes: 3 }, { state: "Florida", votes: 30 }, { state: "Georgia", votes: 16 }, { state: "Hawaii", votes: 4 }, { state: "Idaho", votes: 4 }, { state: "Illinois", votes: 19 }, { state: "Indiana", votes: 11 }, { state: "Iowa", votes: 6 }, { state: "Kansas", votes: 6 }, { state: "Kentucky", votes: 8 }, { state: "Louisiana", votes: 8 }, { state: "Maine", votes: 2 }, { state: "Maine Cd 1", votes: 1 }, { state: "Maine Cd 2", votes: 1 }, { state: "Maryland", votes: 10 }, { state: "Massachusetts", votes: 11 }, { state: "Michigan", votes: 15 }, { state: "Minnesota", votes: 10 }, { state: "Mississippi", votes: 6 }, { state: "Missouri", votes: 10 }, { state: "Montana", votes: 4 }, { state: "Nebraska", votes: 2 }, { state: "Nebraska Cd 1", votes: 1 }, { state: "Nebraska Cd 2", votes: 1 }, { state: "Nebraska Cd 3", votes: 1 }, { state: "Nevada", votes: 6 }, { state: "New Hampshire", votes: 4 }, { state: "New Jersey", votes: 14 }, { state: "New Mexico", votes: 5 }, { state: "New York", votes: 28 }, { state: "North Carolina", votes: 16 }, { state: "North Dakota", votes: 3 }, { state: "Ohio", votes: 17 }, { state: "Oklahoma", votes: 7 }, { state: "Oregon", votes: 8 }, { state: "Pennsylvania", votes: 19 }, { state: "Rhode Island", votes: 4 }, { state: "South Carolina", votes: 9 }, { state: "South Dakota", votes: 3 }, { state: "Tennessee", votes: 11 }, { state: "Texas", votes: 40 }, { state: "Utah", votes: 6 }, { state: "Vermont", votes: 3 }, { state: "Virginia", votes: 13 }, { state: "Washington", votes: 12 }, { state: "West Virginia", votes: 4 }, { state: "Wisconsin", votes: 10 }, { state: "Wyoming", votes: 3 } ]; 3b:T652,stacked_data = { const bucketOrder = [ "0-10%", "10-20%", "20-30%", "30-40%", "40-50%", "50-60%", "60-70%", "70-80%", "80-90%", "90-100%" ]; // Flatten the merged data const flatData = mergedData.flatMap(d => [ {name: d.State, model: "538", value: d.FTE, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: d.State, model: "JHK", value: d.Standard, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: d.State, model: "DDHQ", value: d.DDHQ, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: d.State, model: "RWH", value: d.RWH, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: d.State, model: "Model Avg.", value: d.ModelAvg, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, ]); // Group by model and bucket, summing up the electoral votes const groupedData = d3.rollups( flatData, v => d3.sum(v, d => d.electoralVotes), d => d.model, d => { const value = d.value; if (value <= 0.1) return "0-10%"; if (value <= 0.2) return "10-20%"; if (value <= 0.3) return "20-30%"; if (value <= 0.4) return "30-40%"; if (value <= 0.5) return "40-50%"; if (value <= 0.6) return "50-60%"; if (value <= 0.7) return "60-70%"; if (value <= 0.8) return "70-80%"; if (value <= 0.9) return "80-90%"; return "90-100%"; } ); // Convert the grouped data back to an array format suitable for D3 stacking const stackedData = Array.from(groupedData, ([model, buckets]) => { const obj = {model}; // Sort the buckets by the predefined order bucketOrder.forEach(bucket => { obj[bucket] = buckets.find(([b, _]) => b === bucket)?.[1] || 0; }); return obj; }); return stackedData; // Output the processed data }3c:Ta6c,state_stacked_data = { // Table of state abbreviations const stateAbbreviations = { "Alabama": "AL", "Alaska": "AK", "Arizona": "AZ", "Arkansas": "AR", "California": "CA", "Colorado": "CO", "Connecticut": "CT", "District Of Columbia":"DC", "Delaware": "DE", "Florida": "FL", "Georgia": "GA", "Hawaii": "HI", "Idaho": "ID", "Illinois": "IL", "Indiana": "IN", "Iowa": "IA", "Kansas": "KS", "Kentucky": "KY", "Louisiana": "LA", "Maine": "ME", "Maryland": "MD", "Massachusetts": "MA", "Michigan": "MI", "Minnesota": "MN", "Mississippi": "MS", "Missouri": "MO", "Montana": "MT", "Nebraska": "NE", "Nevada": "NV", "New Hampshire": "NH", "New Jersey": "NJ", "New Mexico": "NM", "New York": "NY", "North Carolina": "NC", "North Dakota": "ND", "Ohio": "OH", "Oklahoma": "OK", "Oregon": "OR", "Pennsylvania": "PA", "Rhode Island": "RI", "South Carolina": "SC", "South Dakota": "SD", "Tennessee": "TN", "Texas": "TX", "Utah": "UT", "Vermont": "VT", "Virginia": "VA", "Washington": "WA", "West Virginia": "WV", "Wisconsin": "WI", "Wyoming": "WY", // For Maine CD 2 and other specific districts "Maine Cd 1": "ME-1", "Maine Cd 2": "ME-2", "Nebraska Cd 1": "NE-1", "Nebraska Cd 2": "NE-2", "Nebraska Cd 3": "NE-3" }; // Filter out entries with "Electoral College" const filteredData = mergedData.filter(d => d.State !== "Electoral College"); // Flatten the filtered data const flatData = filteredData.flatMap(d => [ {name: stateAbbreviations[d.State] || d.State, model: "538", value: d.FTE, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: stateAbbreviations[d.State] || d.State, model: "JHK", value: d.Standard, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: stateAbbreviations[d.State] || d.State, model: "DDHQ", value: d.DDHQ, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: stateAbbreviations[d.State] || d.State, model: "RWH", value: d.RWH, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, {name: stateAbbreviations[d.State] || d.State, model: "Model Avg.", value: d.ModelAvg, electoralVotes: d.electoralVotes}, ]); // Group by model and sort states by probability const groupedData = d3.group( flatData, d => d.model ); // Convert the grouped data into a format suitable for stacked bar charts const stackedData = []; groupedData.forEach((states, model) => { // Sort states by value and calculate cumulative electoral votes const sortedStates = states.sort((a, b) => a.value - b.value); let cumulativeVotes = 0; const cumulativeData = sortedStates.map(state => { cumulativeVotes += state.electoralVotes; return { ...state, cumulativeVotes }; }); stackedData.push({model, data: cumulativeData}); }); return stackedData; }3d:T1aa0,function GaugeChart() { var pi = Math.PI, rad = pi/180, deg = 180/pi; var properties = { width: 800, height: 300, margin: 10, rotation: 0, thickness: 0.15, arc: 1, ticks: 5, color_scheme: "interpolateRdYlBu", color_step: 150, tick_color: "#FFFFFF", needle_color: "#000000" }; var needlePercent = 0, center = {}, radii = {}, angles = {}, ticks = {}, gradient = [], scales = {}; var setCenter = (function initCenter () { center.x = properties.width / 2, center.y = properties.height - properties.margin; return initCenter; })(); var setRadii = (function initRadii () { var base = properties.height - (2 * properties.margin); radii.base = base, radii.cap = base / 15, radii.inner = base * (1 - properties.thickness), radii.outer_tick = base + 5, radii.tick_label = base + 15; return initRadii; })(); var setAngles = (function initAngles () { var arc_complement = 1 - properties.arc; angles.arc_complement = arc_complement, angles.start_angle = (-pi/2) + (pi * arc_complement / 2) + (properties.rotation * rad), angles.end_angle = (pi/2) - (pi * arc_complement / 2) + (properties.rotation * rad); return initAngles; })(); var setTicks = (function initTicks () { var sub_arc = (angles.end_angle - angles.start_angle) / (properties.ticks - 1), tick_pct = 100 / (properties.ticks - 1); ticks = d3.range(properties.ticks).map(function(d) { var sub_angle = angles.start_angle + (sub_arc * d); return { label: (tick_pct * d).toFixed(0) + '%', angle: sub_angle, coordinates: [[sub_angle, radii.inner], [sub_angle, radii.outer_tick]] } }); return initTicks; })(); var setGradient = (function initGradient () { // If `properties.color_scheme` is a D3 color interpolator, use it directly // Otherwise, assume it's a custom function (like d3.scaleLinear() or d3.scaleOrdinal()) var c = typeof properties.color_scheme === 'function' ? properties.color_scheme : d3[properties.color_scheme], samples = properties.color_step, total_arc = angles.end_angle - angles.start_angle, sub_arc = total_arc / samples; gradient = d3.range(samples).map(function(d) { var sub_color = d / (samples - 1), sub_start_angle = angles.start_angle + (sub_arc * d), sub_end_angle = sub_start_angle + sub_arc; return { fill: c(sub_color), // Apply color based on the current sample start: sub_start_angle, end: sub_end_angle }; }); return initGradient; })(); var setScales = (function initScales () { scales.lineRadial = d3.lineRadial(); scales.subArcScale = d3.arc() .innerRadius(radii.inner + 1) .outerRadius(radii.base) .startAngle(d => d.start) .endAngle(d => d.end); scales.needleScale = d3.scaleLinear() .domain([0, 1]) .range([angles.start_angle, angles.end_angle]); return initScales; })(); function updateValues () { setCenter(); setRadii(); setAngles(); setTicks(); setGradient(); setScales(); } var GaugeChart = {}; GaugeChart.setProperties = function(params) { Object.keys(params).map(function(d) { if (d in properties) properties[d] = params[d]; else throw new Error('One or more parameters not accepted.'); }); updateValues(); } GaugeChart.getProperties = function () { return properties; } GaugeChart.debug = function () { return { needlePercent, properties, center, radii, angles, ticks, gradient, svg }; } GaugeChart.setPercentage = function (pct) { needlePercent = pct; } GaugeChart.draw = function () { var svg = d3.create("svg") .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, properties.width, properties.height]); var gauge = svg.append("g") .attr("transform", `translate(${center.x}, ${center.y})`) .attr("class", "gauge-container"); // Draw arcs for the color gradient gauge.append("g") .attr("class", "gauge-arc") .selectAll("path") .data(gradient) .enter() .append("path") .attr("d", scales.subArcScale) .attr("fill", d => d.fill) .attr("stroke-width", 0.5) .attr("stroke", d => d.fill); // Draw ticks gauge.append("g") .attr("class", "gauge-ticks") .selectAll("path") .data(ticks) .enter() .append("g") .attr("class", "tick") .append("path") .attr("d", d => scales.lineRadial(d.coordinates)) .attr("stroke", properties.tick_color) .attr("stroke-width", 2) .attr("stroke-linecap", "round") .attr("fill", "none"); gauge.select("g.gauge-ticks") .selectAll("text") .data(ticks) .enter() .append("g") .attr("class", "tick-label") .append("text") .attr("transform", d => `translate(${radii.tick_label * Math.sin(d.angle)}, ${-radii.tick_label * Math.cos(d.angle)}) rotate(${d.angle * deg - pi})`) .attr("dy", "0em") .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", "1.25em") .attr("font-family", "helvetica") .attr("fill", "#333") .text(d => d.label); // Draw the needle gauge.append("g") .attr("class", "needle") .selectAll("path") .data([needlePercent]) .enter() .append("path") .attr("d", d => scales.lineRadial([[0,0], [scales.needleScale(d), radii.outer_tick]])) .attr("stroke", properties.needle_color) .attr("stroke-width", 6) .attr("stroke-linecap", "round"); // Draw the needle cap gauge.select("g.needle") .append("circle") .attr("cx", 0) .attr("cy", 0) .attr("r", radii.cap) .attr("stroke", properties.needle_color) .attr("stroke-width", 6) .style("fill", "white"); // Add text at the tip of the needle to display the percentage gauge.append("text") .attr("class", "needle-percentage") .attr("x", scales.needleScale(needlePercent) * Math.sin(scales.needleScale(needlePercent))) .attr("y", -scales.needleScale(needlePercent) * Math.cos(scales.needleScale(needlePercent))) .attr("dy", "2em") // Adjust position slightly above the needle tip .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", "1.5em") .attr("font-family", "helvetica") .attr("fill", "#333") .attr("font-weight", "bold") .text(`${(needlePercent * 100).toFixed(1)}%`); // Display percentage with one decimal return svg; } return GaugeChart; };3e:Td69,html` `3f:[{"id":"944b09f82c0a3a23f6ac4605ca6d71031e504786a01ece3fd75ceb0ce307820169f4acf58ce2a96457b96c8d133a05f176555cd8e43401a58cf7ef42ed0e70dd","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/944b09f82c0a3a23f6ac4605ca6d71031e504786a01ece3fd75ceb0ce307820169f4acf58ce2a96457b96c8d133a05f176555cd8e43401a58cf7ef42ed0e70dd","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@25.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727537437693.722,"size":2180},{"id":"d27d25669da782b2bfcba97f1d086a2f2126fea9e7c82c1c1dfb7a7f1f5d6bac858b75d53a2b8328da64fe31c3084c4d95af41154795ae16d34d1a46e0ec8941","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/d27d25669da782b2bfcba97f1d086a2f2126fea9e7c82c1c1dfb7a7f1f5d6bac858b75d53a2b8328da64fe31c3084c4d95af41154795ae16d34d1a46e0ec8941","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@36.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728958327530.418,"size":2094},{"id":"e3b8a6669f5fa39f0354cc238e22a3c861d33cbea89b641d44dee314c4ec52f5a995ecbb5749044c62d2657cbd046ce95917dd1e25664e11da0e6e5ce526f3a9","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/e3b8a6669f5fa39f0354cc238e22a3c861d33cbea89b641d44dee314c4ec52f5a995ecbb5749044c62d2657cbd046ce95917dd1e25664e11da0e6e5ce526f3a9","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@3.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725649793276.144,"size":2000},{"id":"f27d6cb7d366b8db5bb7ece38e123f6a422a512f286f23fc7fd203bab79be1ff68ecb41853ce5d4f7e7295106c343ea40e5cca856bd205553218a131314064d5","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f27d6cb7d366b8db5bb7ece38e123f6a422a512f286f23fc7fd203bab79be1ff68ecb41853ce5d4f7e7295106c343ea40e5cca856bd205553218a131314064d5","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@17.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726711892179.856,"size":1876},{"id":"ff281e635ddbf201c0658cdb1b6eb3f1e1f0c40dbcaacc51029452f885c8920dae27c177b629c0a4b230f89c9bca63ea9697628ab53b9ec4c6e51ed8a2655605","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/ff281e635ddbf201c0658cdb1b6eb3f1e1f0c40dbcaacc51029452f885c8920dae27c177b629c0a4b230f89c9bca63ea9697628ab53b9ec4c6e51ed8a2655605","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@32.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728067887461.115,"size":2182},{"id":"0d66288489351e3a7c4825cd16ee3e1b6521ea4d572aeabb79d7c4cafe046509a624a9e1716e9e1b610927fe9c1730f5d7ff27453307606101077f857bfa96b6","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/0d66288489351e3a7c4825cd16ee3e1b6521ea4d572aeabb79d7c4cafe046509a624a9e1716e9e1b610927fe9c1730f5d7ff27453307606101077f857bfa96b6","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@5.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725672672734.821,"size":2063},{"id":"137c270963dae19bce8fc7abe203bad0c523b02dbe4fdeb72bdedd937af360ae00c04caa377b078adc51b845c5462e4901374d21f0439767f018b718cf6166d9","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/137c270963dae19bce8fc7abe203bad0c523b02dbe4fdeb72bdedd937af360ae00c04caa377b078adc51b845c5462e4901374d21f0439767f018b718cf6166d9","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@34.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728523976209.621,"size":1835},{"id":"90150e16dda2a402396ec8ade0a96a405a5bd4b0ef1ab0f275599f7634bb9c817d3cc6104a466031b03b3c4a0192913b6f6a3b28ebed4e6a381e11c283d557f1","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/90150e16dda2a402396ec8ade0a96a405a5bd4b0ef1ab0f275599f7634bb9c817d3cc6104a466031b03b3c4a0192913b6f6a3b28ebed4e6a381e11c283d557f1","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@35.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728527900509.293,"size":2097},{"id":"c19ebb912949d6aa87b4adc55b7b8ec54025b526f19be905bf5e0fcc655912bdbedeaf2d490ea92fdacf8a5a8ff98dcd749d814984297c17571e2a639ca9f0ce","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/c19ebb912949d6aa87b4adc55b7b8ec54025b526f19be905bf5e0fcc655912bdbedeaf2d490ea92fdacf8a5a8ff98dcd749d814984297c17571e2a639ca9f0ce","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@10.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726180750078.934,"size":2425},{"id":"1dc9ee517e955ad11c2955ab2911193597a139ea6db9531cf551d2d6da2933d53669ae182f3c7939b1eb30b95eef165fa209d14fff01dac213d76a7e8dc8be42","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/1dc9ee517e955ad11c2955ab2911193597a139ea6db9531cf551d2d6da2933d53669ae182f3c7939b1eb30b95eef165fa209d14fff01dac213d76a7e8dc8be42","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@6.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725829264358.192,"size":2060},{"id":"2886e668bec38fe0bc0d8a09989f5a4026a525fc98f14121313533539b122536a532bae5b8899b34a238164171f2a9e38b4f4843d54b3d70db99b036f9556af8","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2886e668bec38fe0bc0d8a09989f5a4026a525fc98f14121313533539b122536a532bae5b8899b34a238164171f2a9e38b4f4843d54b3d70db99b036f9556af8","name":"new_electoral_boundary_tiles.topo-2.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1725830592163.981,"size":12902},{"id":"c063dfffd667252d6ca4c4b50e5fbdc8986ae0a787fc110137cfa331f46c43d6f54d980ffe6fbeb09a6740f9e5a815b75cb4b23586578ce8c904dca9a5442807","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/c063dfffd667252d6ca4c4b50e5fbdc8986ae0a787fc110137cfa331f46c43d6f54d980ffe6fbeb09a6740f9e5a815b75cb4b23586578ce8c904dca9a5442807","name":"new_electoral_broken_tile_boundaries.topo.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1725830661574.225,"size":14648},{"id":"fd6bc13ae870f892fca52d991de9face0669c1fd5d037a69e94a11f13ac68fa3ecc27d43f70b191426fd9a4078293e699d4fe0c7c98d71e8c9707d428df658e4","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/fd6bc13ae870f892fca52d991de9face0669c1fd5d037a69e94a11f13ac68fa3ecc27d43f70b191426fd9a4078293e699d4fe0c7c98d71e8c9707d428df658e4","name":"new_electoral_tiles.topo-1.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1725830661744.878,"size":98942},{"id":"3b571176fe2a5fc838a509e57f3745f3af941c205c0be784adcadbedcaa2c96d87be946c068a1c7ee0ef12fc54e836d49e34c84457396032a076b0959cc36ed5","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/3b571176fe2a5fc838a509e57f3745f3af941c205c0be784adcadbedcaa2c96d87be946c068a1c7ee0ef12fc54e836d49e34c84457396032a076b0959cc36ed5","name":"new_electoral_broken_tiles.topo.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1725830661824.058,"size":98835},{"id":"d68eba25b4bf46eac35b69509e34a7bb56d170a222254ea7afe089c6f55e07e76a4874a17c9e5f473f999a2f79042a4ed0dcd05f2a2e42284355c68ab979414a","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/d68eba25b4bf46eac35b69509e34a7bb56d170a222254ea7afe089c6f55e07e76a4874a17c9e5f473f999a2f79042a4ed0dcd05f2a2e42284355c68ab979414a","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@7.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725832072974.731,"size":2422},{"id":"ee4ceca5ce359924d68482e8f3a88cccaec8eaf8c123ccc6c21025934a8786500931a7ee8ba5e0332f783a9973f5b3d14aa37ed142fa9f272cbd0702db666865","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/ee4ceca5ce359924d68482e8f3a88cccaec8eaf8c123ccc6c21025934a8786500931a7ee8ba5e0332f783a9973f5b3d14aa37ed142fa9f272cbd0702db666865","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@8.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725834740364.444,"size":2426},{"id":"37636a84085f1dd737c14306c272e517beb83e2cf73019e2ecedd85ff4c0411e24b5787aeb6dadef0098989907f563f0d20fedb28f84762e5a46ea37d2e9a897","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/37636a84085f1dd737c14306c272e517beb83e2cf73019e2ecedd85ff4c0411e24b5787aeb6dadef0098989907f563f0d20fedb28f84762e5a46ea37d2e9a897","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@11.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726246920986.148,"size":2421},{"id":"4dd33abd42ae7f440c149ecb5f0a0aef9597a7ae1e4a1d1608281aedbd6e010391d4561e43fd2cbec4a920a3178e7aa640e1be71d4703e55e9ec72b0b3b7bedb","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/4dd33abd42ae7f440c149ecb5f0a0aef9597a7ae1e4a1d1608281aedbd6e010391d4561e43fd2cbec4a920a3178e7aa640e1be71d4703e55e9ec72b0b3b7bedb","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@12.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726247396356.956,"size":2424},{"id":"45e8b336f394093f3f72e82c1f2f50a5f40a2271e4b2159575e864d67b725f9c5a871be8d7afc789fa7e6dcf262b6e09cb3da6e9359f445b8ac0930c64441855","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/45e8b336f394093f3f72e82c1f2f50a5f40a2271e4b2159575e864d67b725f9c5a871be8d7afc789fa7e6dcf262b6e09cb3da6e9359f445b8ac0930c64441855","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@23.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727225289540.026,"size":2180},{"id":"2a8ae24eb63409214830a0a28982d11fb7294124e5b9989b845fb389a6870cb72954c9e49b3a9d0415b9fc4f806a183aef2f1a706add9f8c5c5270b8a78401dd","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2a8ae24eb63409214830a0a28982d11fb7294124e5b9989b845fb389a6870cb72954c9e49b3a9d0415b9fc4f806a183aef2f1a706add9f8c5c5270b8a78401dd","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@18.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726805745849.198,"size":1871},{"id":"504474c9ef14f9731ee3ca2112f95b38378e17d1de5e27d766ced3eebee349fa3f0a3b711ce9d116ade832077151875a54b82197efd00a704e7dbe19d52083f9","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/504474c9ef14f9731ee3ca2112f95b38378e17d1de5e27d766ced3eebee349fa3f0a3b711ce9d116ade832077151875a54b82197efd00a704e7dbe19d52083f9","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@13.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726267341665.746,"size":2419},{"id":"cfddf43958c53f6fd9232f86266729edec820e222c713289eeed4bf0755885af07fcad669459735c8462bfff6e1a709471eb6a6ead05141f67339d2b12c50ed3","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/cfddf43958c53f6fd9232f86266729edec820e222c713289eeed4bf0755885af07fcad669459735c8462bfff6e1a709471eb6a6ead05141f67339d2b12c50ed3","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@37.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729027181517.866,"size":2091},{"id":"7ee2a10cbf0562e59175f02d5b66e001cfda8540539bc19edb0a377ed2a49bb6d0b8fb16ac725f9c98160f8c6c38c47ffe09f73a3588dcfadc91441d1e7d8edf","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/7ee2a10cbf0562e59175f02d5b66e001cfda8540539bc19edb0a377ed2a49bb6d0b8fb16ac725f9c98160f8c6c38c47ffe09f73a3588dcfadc91441d1e7d8edf","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@38.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729027239056.598,"size":2095},{"id":"a63f56851280572e74ab74313ea2c937d44020cf50821c764be84f3a1ad37d87673886b337aa672e2e44bfb925ff98649b0373c0b48a539846b4f7efd1e5ffde","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/a63f56851280572e74ab74313ea2c937d44020cf50821c764be84f3a1ad37d87673886b337aa672e2e44bfb925ff98649b0373c0b48a539846b4f7efd1e5ffde","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@26.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727662129802.372,"size":2154},{"id":"875c0ae7c65eb37b6a1b9ef53eaa2f8746adcea290bede522ea79fe2bce952a94dc66b06ab836edc4b0ad9d77e994831feaa32a2065d1d0c658c4fc76feedc1b","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/875c0ae7c65eb37b6a1b9ef53eaa2f8746adcea290bede522ea79fe2bce952a94dc66b06ab836edc4b0ad9d77e994831feaa32a2065d1d0c658c4fc76feedc1b","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@27.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727662292289.541,"size":2172},{"id":"6df20652d8f8dbbd3cfb337e983e910492ba8eb4105c46abff8a664b36e434f3f95275d9d06b5c083d621813b84a49738ee33005a009b916e755ab6cf24da549","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/6df20652d8f8dbbd3cfb337e983e910492ba8eb4105c46abff8a664b36e434f3f95275d9d06b5c083d621813b84a49738ee33005a009b916e755ab6cf24da549","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@14.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726354950651.657,"size":2429},{"id":"1b496bea56941d98f5d8dd842ad53ee734a79fd9eaac14d7c05556ebc74f2c8fc17694c2b69e030a3541292c512e25cdd27e2615d110b23fdb1682ffa5f30e41","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/1b496bea56941d98f5d8dd842ad53ee734a79fd9eaac14d7c05556ebc74f2c8fc17694c2b69e030a3541292c512e25cdd27e2615d110b23fdb1682ffa5f30e41","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@15.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726448746622.255,"size":1872},{"id":"9c4ee8e907950e772736a3de5f82bcb7e968e6cb905449f8e70300a170ad00bd14b420f1a7dc8f30ae8a55136d3dcb552ea3227043460b401cb64ad5f81feb15","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/9c4ee8e907950e772736a3de5f82bcb7e968e6cb905449f8e70300a170ad00bd14b420f1a7dc8f30ae8a55136d3dcb552ea3227043460b401cb64ad5f81feb15","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@24.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727302368307.233,"size":2177},{"id":"f6a7d095e2380bcff47ba6ef0b1b900d3c33a0569557966b841aa14f0d66051951126f9907c156775045c712b85178268df14957aaa248d5763df022c5af13a7","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f6a7d095e2380bcff47ba6ef0b1b900d3c33a0569557966b841aa14f0d66051951126f9907c156775045c712b85178268df14957aaa248d5763df022c5af13a7","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@9.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725924156744.614,"size":2423},{"id":"fb0b4a365d5c66f03cc1e6c10a4343604071413a1c148f88713d59fd18c595918f3b09c999ecedcf0db816b3d0754daae5943fc447c99ba147f273c81c70ede6","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/fb0b4a365d5c66f03cc1e6c10a4343604071413a1c148f88713d59fd18c595918f3b09c999ecedcf0db816b3d0754daae5943fc447c99ba147f273c81c70ede6","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@19.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727024584001.118,"size":1869},{"id":"04206eaad2ecb79e070ed0ee178b66f82eac652be31bee158ab50082c82ca9d5acb4bc6cd4e8272b37941cd8c8357ca730435e393a56d8634ef0478e28797c80","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/04206eaad2ecb79e070ed0ee178b66f82eac652be31bee158ab50082c82ca9d5acb4bc6cd4e8272b37941cd8c8357ca730435e393a56d8634ef0478e28797c80","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@33.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728425434765.676,"size":2181},{"id":"164d804554ca35b8adbddc5017cde8daccaf75b9bcb0a170ea8957d97a28536f0ab4d528dd47c6904e24d27a3a53c2b1aa6cef99ac917f099f7b24167d4c33f1","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/164d804554ca35b8adbddc5017cde8daccaf75b9bcb0a170ea8957d97a28536f0ab4d528dd47c6904e24d27a3a53c2b1aa6cef99ac917f099f7b24167d4c33f1","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@20.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727048816651.17,"size":2166},{"id":"f2d7f7c37843782b6e75f7ce56ac6fed510968b3b98aff4892cc6c00a3af5abfa6e386baae9fc1d82199f722863ca8daed86707f1d2177a3e61c04c9f88aabcf","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f2d7f7c37843782b6e75f7ce56ac6fed510968b3b98aff4892cc6c00a3af5abfa6e386baae9fc1d82199f722863ca8daed86707f1d2177a3e61c04c9f88aabcf","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@21.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727049738796.022,"size":2178},{"id":"0971581408499bb463c462ebddddb2d972549cdf46efa8e40f25f8b8412943986c1f96f20c34030bf1c5214dc758b86d0999efc5c4e40e1a679c2e05a69ab817","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/0971581408499bb463c462ebddddb2d972549cdf46efa8e40f25f8b8412943986c1f96f20c34030bf1c5214dc758b86d0999efc5c4e40e1a679c2e05a69ab817","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@22.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727051468941.371,"size":2176},{"id":"47cfa7ff2bc7073978c1e2ec1ebf5ea0272c6fd6dbee5f94c0ce9ccab44f5d5f3c8f901574a74fe04fcff4093e4b3d1c764d881a51b763c9727ea56de87f8833","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/47cfa7ff2bc7073978c1e2ec1ebf5ea0272c6fd6dbee5f94c0ce9ccab44f5d5f3c8f901574a74fe04fcff4093e4b3d1c764d881a51b763c9727ea56de87f8833","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@2.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1725495929282.288,"size":2001},{"id":"c8482e3e1165f3f92adc9a6e09b301996fefd6f967e634e9e4493ac43f785d31040493407650ec2250b31bd86f5360f23d6e82d47451e208ada46ba28e50a660","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/c8482e3e1165f3f92adc9a6e09b301996fefd6f967e634e9e4493ac43f785d31040493407650ec2250b31bd86f5360f23d6e82d47451e208ada46ba28e50a660","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@39.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729132643439.852,"size":2089},{"id":"8cd0153b5fe9dc711ef122baea3952ea7dd82dbba699e65fa1db72f62158ff7732e3b0da0076613d5094b45832a61b537e119cedf54bbc6701793c068d872b52","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/8cd0153b5fe9dc711ef122baea3952ea7dd82dbba699e65fa1db72f62158ff7732e3b0da0076613d5094b45832a61b537e119cedf54bbc6701793c068d872b52","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@29.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728004936494.231,"size":2177},{"id":"5875865957e9ac30c888b300c27738784fc07b9b9e995aa19237e9dbbfd425cd58edaab6f8876a5bc8c85a1419b3e4ce919eb039fb1e675ce127f2fd561d89df","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/5875865957e9ac30c888b300c27738784fc07b9b9e995aa19237e9dbbfd425cd58edaab6f8876a5bc8c85a1419b3e4ce919eb039fb1e675ce127f2fd561d89df","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@30.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728008802586.045,"size":2160},{"id":"69b61e6e523bcf178c43aa9949d4476a7be8e6bc5f9b0ceff46b910565de61e39c62894790964ff44a3a1c060b4cafd70e6834fc06101de814519e98bbb231d2","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/69b61e6e523bcf178c43aa9949d4476a7be8e6bc5f9b0ceff46b910565de61e39c62894790964ff44a3a1c060b4cafd70e6834fc06101de814519e98bbb231d2","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@31.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1728008925244.007,"size":2181},{"id":"d7b983586817ee0610d9c5aa85b36fc0d368eaf182b8221412e1fd835023417dbfa07ad492ab289d8b6f84aa36f5d533e936d7773b79a11e527ddf508154cc24","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/d7b983586817ee0610d9c5aa85b36fc0d368eaf182b8221412e1fd835023417dbfa07ad492ab289d8b6f84aa36f5d533e936d7773b79a11e527ddf508154cc24","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@28.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1727820995844.793,"size":2177},{"id":"20b0ee99d8cba194308cc7927506277e19019ceaf9e2a65e8cb144e4f23d24fc5449dbef750cd10f2236f66dbe38276b1def36a856901445f3a700670ef10e0f","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/20b0ee99d8cba194308cc7927506277e19019ceaf9e2a65e8cb144e4f23d24fc5449dbef750cd10f2236f66dbe38276b1def36a856901445f3a700670ef10e0f","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@16.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1726612444414.241,"size":1868},{"id":"2c81604058e074f0463e283fa8d5785db5a242b3e0c1dd63b6ba7f71e8913bda1b1c6083727ae869ba78f18a3fd85d7f6edebc42bf34edbbcfd5842e55c7f84d","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2c81604058e074f0463e283fa8d5785db5a242b3e0c1dd63b6ba7f71e8913bda1b1c6083727ae869ba78f18a3fd85d7f6edebc42bf34edbbcfd5842e55c7f84d","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@51.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729899361027.062,"size":2090},{"id":"181c87b77af470ed88fa75e5f67460da0b3f1869dabf00c100ae58b92f5fdc2e95f7615f6a7318aa2f28fdb57c3c57473ecee01b9c635ed5752f065ebbe9df74","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/181c87b77af470ed88fa75e5f67460da0b3f1869dabf00c100ae58b92f5fdc2e95f7615f6a7318aa2f28fdb57c3c57473ecee01b9c635ed5752f065ebbe9df74","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@58.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730570104818.997,"size":2075},{"id":"b509fe2cc02f0d72985f7057cf2a0e63e5cda4d70cc369bbb4004072e204afe2af279b36710b730aa3fe4bb5e717399422ae63f0cdd8631ec389f52ca4905862","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/b509fe2cc02f0d72985f7057cf2a0e63e5cda4d70cc369bbb4004072e204afe2af279b36710b730aa3fe4bb5e717399422ae63f0cdd8631ec389f52ca4905862","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@52.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730061887131.414,"size":2082},{"id":"c891f432b742438903d062d7b281f76a78c76d35711c14155c9b8fb1f9b542b53f4e883903209ddf6cade5a07fd90cf94b984ab01236adf4b0bf4763f9738c2f","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/c891f432b742438903d062d7b281f76a78c76d35711c14155c9b8fb1f9b542b53f4e883903209ddf6cade5a07fd90cf94b984ab01236adf4b0bf4763f9738c2f","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@59.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730664130711.151,"size":2068},{"id":"2d4902f4bc2540200934ef7567737bceb66fdd64536fa213f65687eab70d93fa7f3624753383d4b03b8022a276daee483bf70f81be7426185952510654c5116b","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2d4902f4bc2540200934ef7567737bceb66fdd64536fa213f65687eab70d93fa7f3624753383d4b03b8022a276daee483bf70f81be7426185952510654c5116b","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@43.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729355131374.077,"size":2089},{"id":"f652b5300f69a091b42b0e3f15819f7fb1373d93b0b5dc292c2b1496e2d1a82504e01adbedff3ae224d974ff9426aa21a3d44238661c230ab81fb4a13452800d","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f652b5300f69a091b42b0e3f15819f7fb1373d93b0b5dc292c2b1496e2d1a82504e01adbedff3ae224d974ff9426aa21a3d44238661c230ab81fb4a13452800d","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@44.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729453361028.435,"size":2098},{"id":"6917cb25a65e12f2b492957e08871927d84d7dcbd03604d4bb98d669a0655367900f2c9a885820e59ab08e8d46023141b65caef3354823fcd5719fef53b6b390","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/6917cb25a65e12f2b492957e08871927d84d7dcbd03604d4bb98d669a0655367900f2c9a885820e59ab08e8d46023141b65caef3354823fcd5719fef53b6b390","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@45.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729470969736.384,"size":2095},{"id":"a1862e5da52b8f0012baa781a95f2f2d9b0a6bf34e9560497c5be88aa6a1541ac8641bba248911713872399cac1c547e186627ead4feef893bbec34767af17ef","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/a1862e5da52b8f0012baa781a95f2f2d9b0a6bf34e9560497c5be88aa6a1541ac8641bba248911713872399cac1c547e186627ead4feef893bbec34767af17ef","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@46.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729470994581.933,"size":2095},{"id":"99b47b8cac0cd1a1446007f916c2cfa319f44b83a69e2712a3d3307f2429b00f9a291203ac9b91babf1188d416a2c22dd7a5909482465ffd0b73cb2017c25984","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/99b47b8cac0cd1a1446007f916c2cfa319f44b83a69e2712a3d3307f2429b00f9a291203ac9b91babf1188d416a2c22dd7a5909482465ffd0b73cb2017c25984","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@40.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729275766706.936,"size":2085},{"id":"4b3262a5d1cd394553c37baabbeba5c67722d53572d292d25c133f0a6881706721dbaf119fddbb251dccdd483a04395f8e5f9c024e27656341e720c19ba717e5","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/4b3262a5d1cd394553c37baabbeba5c67722d53572d292d25c133f0a6881706721dbaf119fddbb251dccdd483a04395f8e5f9c024e27656341e720c19ba717e5","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@41.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729283448351.118,"size":2098},{"id":"7d4ae0f5b1954a5256ff080f79917e429725055cc60861642c83e647cf7bccc4458c0dd34b1fadd3574db7576fd49f60cb501a90465b32bf520226bcfb96ace3","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/7d4ae0f5b1954a5256ff080f79917e429725055cc60861642c83e647cf7bccc4458c0dd34b1fadd3574db7576fd49f60cb501a90465b32bf520226bcfb96ace3","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@42.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729287419065.908,"size":2097},{"id":"7fbd4ccb89c7fa1593c4597071ca0103735e5d0c1e4ff13e5bc864b642de94848e78faeb8c59c557ce59a120a26ced7dfb4ac153e8d66a9dd3ef44a9eea5166b","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/7fbd4ccb89c7fa1593c4597071ca0103735e5d0c1e4ff13e5bc864b642de94848e78faeb8c59c557ce59a120a26ced7dfb4ac153e8d66a9dd3ef44a9eea5166b","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@53.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730169476578.153,"size":2083},{"id":"0da10711b0a28a9c93fd6cb448da36d7fb5ecab1552e5c8bb924ce5792e0e78b19cc9026d4b2b2f04d4926b6174ff2a99af134004907d661cc0b80d31e9af908","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/0da10711b0a28a9c93fd6cb448da36d7fb5ecab1552e5c8bb924ce5792e0e78b19cc9026d4b2b2f04d4926b6174ff2a99af134004907d661cc0b80d31e9af908","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@60.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730752554550.383,"size":2062},{"id":"b59aac20908e5bb19c80e40d3777eeb7e55fbff63af92d792f19299ce7441c0d7c6c4daddf5117c2d6d4d2b338fd3a9fbe4d73ab084c4026cc0f5afe303dc712","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/b59aac20908e5bb19c80e40d3777eeb7e55fbff63af92d792f19299ce7441c0d7c6c4daddf5117c2d6d4d2b338fd3a9fbe4d73ab084c4026cc0f5afe303dc712","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@61.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730756980658.925,"size":2064},{"id":"db8d49ee8195d8b5910de28353b51c764f0a3c7401fbe19c1a6272748d6eeebb2cc027f12dde95a1dbd34864837ad7d253a6b1674de45604b0b7e17a689b8b0c","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/db8d49ee8195d8b5910de28353b51c764f0a3c7401fbe19c1a6272748d6eeebb2cc027f12dde95a1dbd34864837ad7d253a6b1674de45604b0b7e17a689b8b0c","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@62.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730774036220.062,"size":2068},{"id":"fc9e756cf971456c89b596c9215482b68368928ab0c9c3e7de1b202e17e12176788edfc1ca7cde7d857c2ab8def185d720584c43f8deae170ea5cf81beb34b54","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/fc9e756cf971456c89b596c9215482b68368928ab0c9c3e7de1b202e17e12176788edfc1ca7cde7d857c2ab8def185d720584c43f8deae170ea5cf81beb34b54","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@63.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730774062637.209,"size":2070},{"id":"191570ebd5d751edcceee319e30b656f263da4bea79c2afe67a284bbee5fc4b8aab3e9279eb3e844a68fac67de7a2548f82b91c8679947bcabcf1b8ecd090bc9","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/191570ebd5d751edcceee319e30b656f263da4bea79c2afe67a284bbee5fc4b8aab3e9279eb3e844a68fac67de7a2548f82b91c8679947bcabcf1b8ecd090bc9","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@64.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730782333178.969,"size":2066},{"id":"dbe44f63152f6b4b5079884f3e525da7684dc15163369885ecaeab28dbcf35f90edbf58bc242f39924ffbaac7f8d67d415de47573a7f87afb6601c1dd929faa7","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/dbe44f63152f6b4b5079884f3e525da7684dc15163369885ecaeab28dbcf35f90edbf58bc242f39924ffbaac7f8d67d415de47573a7f87afb6601c1dd929faa7","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@65.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730782350361.118,"size":2068},{"id":"c917850499085d20f24a737275790a674f97b06f027711bb3e6d32b66f7355b1be283d8ad835c33686abae84ec170df9d48f8dd24c563ab06cb4b9c52e3b65f7","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/c917850499085d20f24a737275790a674f97b06f027711bb3e6d32b66f7355b1be283d8ad835c33686abae84ec170df9d48f8dd24c563ab06cb4b9c52e3b65f7","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@47.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729544437836.193,"size":2090},{"id":"64c2bb588b2f39e20684c0f398ffae4e75c067786459723d14ee0de63ea67d6d81ec9761e6d19ef75ac77f1709540e8afb2b4ef47cb74fb6d592162744f88a1b","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/64c2bb588b2f39e20684c0f398ffae4e75c067786459723d14ee0de63ea67d6d81ec9761e6d19ef75ac77f1709540e8afb2b4ef47cb74fb6d592162744f88a1b","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@66.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730814733351.147,"size":2060},{"id":"64c2bb588b2f39e20684c0f398ffae4e75c067786459723d14ee0de63ea67d6d81ec9761e6d19ef75ac77f1709540e8afb2b4ef47cb74fb6d592162744f88a1b","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/64c2bb588b2f39e20684c0f398ffae4e75c067786459723d14ee0de63ea67d6d81ec9761e6d19ef75ac77f1709540e8afb2b4ef47cb74fb6d592162744f88a1b","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@67.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730814874680.598,"size":2060},{"id":"7520cf7f6cebd726ce6b2d6b88f229d034073751121c4ba4e608c97c2cb80ded5891647d007eb8080c58ec6499187637367f24aee089d928d502887c18fdefee","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/7520cf7f6cebd726ce6b2d6b88f229d034073751121c4ba4e608c97c2cb80ded5891647d007eb8080c58ec6499187637367f24aee089d928d502887c18fdefee","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@68.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730814905423.047,"size":2062},{"id":"2110ca58348e9cc283437fc04d7a46944d47c3f1b2e97f5c9952500999f985847ab486c45cda8eba180f3c41908b7ca9e9089949ea93a48eb990d6a2b5c4db68","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2110ca58348e9cc283437fc04d7a46944d47c3f1b2e97f5c9952500999f985847ab486c45cda8eba180f3c41908b7ca9e9089949ea93a48eb990d6a2b5c4db68","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@54.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730250252051.812,"size":2080},{"id":"34554f681812e5e3be916ce0cf17515c11719bfd3c0925009808090018c658c425a5f79a4817449b036890121776439643082446b2bdb7462d15d67d7e255ec6","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/34554f681812e5e3be916ce0cf17515c11719bfd3c0925009808090018c658c425a5f79a4817449b036890121776439643082446b2bdb7462d15d67d7e255ec6","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@55.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730251233866.152,"size":2077},{"id":"33f539bb51a4fef444f0702b2e7b2539f85f15926ce98461a1b99675d3e3a05f5ba4d924b7eab74e94cbc042c523891f5d832a4c7315c0e7b52df019b9cd27c6","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/33f539bb51a4fef444f0702b2e7b2539f85f15926ce98461a1b99675d3e3a05f5ba4d924b7eab74e94cbc042c523891f5d832a4c7315c0e7b52df019b9cd27c6","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@56.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730251254192.636,"size":2081},{"id":"23d337e12763b2147739fbad794a32ff4788211fe82561de714800fd110d2d0dad69d4310b9aabcaac28ff0e2d3734a354e3f2293703dcbda278ada4c174aa76","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/23d337e12763b2147739fbad794a32ff4788211fe82561de714800fd110d2d0dad69d4310b9aabcaac28ff0e2d3734a354e3f2293703dcbda278ada4c174aa76","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@69.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730846912640.688,"size":2059},{"id":"7865aa6ea4943d2807328cddd7fee7e288d98ff834e1d39380f6e8ec29303368b655c0c63cd7427439589a4dbec00071ccc6f05fc0753309aa88b66513b8ea92","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/7865aa6ea4943d2807328cddd7fee7e288d98ff834e1d39380f6e8ec29303368b655c0c63cd7427439589a4dbec00071ccc6f05fc0753309aa88b66513b8ea92","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@70.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730846995456.977,"size":2061},{"id":"c3bde112046c88b8e595beaa5414694356054715b69f756a0ffc7dd3a3984f18f463ca3d9a4f3d5423be20340af1c25a0841215cb640ba589b0ecbd1b1516bd0","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/c3bde112046c88b8e595beaa5414694356054715b69f756a0ffc7dd3a3984f18f463ca3d9a4f3d5423be20340af1c25a0841215cb640ba589b0ecbd1b1516bd0","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@71.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730848090853.133,"size":2069},{"id":"186b67982e6b2dc67f3ff332bdc8d727eab4782a8bebfa0121c293b37c7a449d6973acb61ff8b7c20beb53ce0be676606bfe70a6d3276c75cda74be511caf347","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/186b67982e6b2dc67f3ff332bdc8d727eab4782a8bebfa0121c293b37c7a449d6973acb61ff8b7c20beb53ce0be676606bfe70a6d3276c75cda74be511caf347","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@72.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730848150166.132,"size":2069},{"id":"6ffeb864905ad364414f385397f0905e4adfa16f76752a0e785aa702f42b1c082a346e61c29b85eff092fea5a7948f4af027cfba0b965a208f4543b24911631d","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/6ffeb864905ad364414f385397f0905e4adfa16f76752a0e785aa702f42b1c082a346e61c29b85eff092fea5a7948f4af027cfba0b965a208f4543b24911631d","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@73.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730848224104.182,"size":2069},{"id":"d9c37ac0812e5f45f24eb540d9366df9d0f8af85e42eb3ca0b5dd1e245d3cada503295eec59243c43ea0061e67fc719a284ee23b36ea2759b7bd042dbde969ff","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/d9c37ac0812e5f45f24eb540d9366df9d0f8af85e42eb3ca0b5dd1e245d3cada503295eec59243c43ea0061e67fc719a284ee23b36ea2759b7bd042dbde969ff","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@48.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729637365919.212,"size":2099},{"id":"0728b495b651dc7498cfc5452525f301f7a79731c99b36a590c72ee08403a44a459d7afce872062e58b6f3b7b16f6723706e4edcdbe1f10b09f96bd3846af659","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/0728b495b651dc7498cfc5452525f301f7a79731c99b36a590c72ee08403a44a459d7afce872062e58b6f3b7b16f6723706e4edcdbe1f10b09f96bd3846af659","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@49.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729637386912.217,"size":2099},{"id":"4160e259786690a16dc3fdb283f9fa16e72ce2b0f398edfac298a2b6cc46cee0a05c32c1850b84666a8ac3eda3bacde193aef1f4bc5df6ed98f50619aec73ab5","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/4160e259786690a16dc3fdb283f9fa16e72ce2b0f398edfac298a2b6cc46cee0a05c32c1850b84666a8ac3eda3bacde193aef1f4bc5df6ed98f50619aec73ab5","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@57.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1730334609544.911,"size":2071},{"id":"4f31c5dfb98904d3f071046fe494e9ec975f0e0a65b579d02b25ec0275399c288630a3acf80a1d910440d7f0ff9072d9cae6a3be4dcc8627c311e96eb92ae2f6","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/4f31c5dfb98904d3f071046fe494e9ec975f0e0a65b579d02b25ec0275399c288630a3acf80a1d910440d7f0ff9072d9cae6a3be4dcc8627c311e96eb92ae2f6","name":"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@50.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1729816036163.297,"size":2087}] 31:{"id":"4645211a55a16b34","slug":"2024-presidential-election-forecasts","title":"2024 Presidential Election Forecasts","thumbnail":"81a6047abd137a69070b1c7288d8356a7fafb44dd69378b33a08e57f9f364e4e","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2024-08-31T18:18:07.764Z","update_time":"$D2024-11-11T17:09:50.896Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2024-09-14T04:41:53.053Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"3b88b27becc4bbe6","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":2308,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"78c022c35bbdd3b7","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"3b88b27becc4bbe6","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"78c022c35bbdd3b7","login":"robertmreedy","name":"Bobby Reedy","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/90f1a7d743c3a2110c947721108b59ac8dcf7901079833e3803e54258687e7a4","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":3,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"2024 Presidential Election Forecasts","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":826,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1966,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1795,"value":"{\n\n let gaugechart = GaugeChart();\n\n gaugechart.setProperties({ \n rotation: 0,\n thickness: 0.225,\n arc: 1,\n ticks: 11,\n color_scheme: d3.interpolateRgbBasis([\"#e84343\", \"#f8ebeb\", \"#fafafa\", \"#e6eef7\", \"#0b70db\"]),\n color_step: 200,\n tick_color: \"#FFF\",\n needle_color: \"#333\"\n });\n\n gaugechart.setPercentage(model_avg);\n\n var svg = gaugechart.draw();\n \n yield svg.node();\n \n // Resize height of SVG automatically - not strictly necessary.\n \n var gauge_element = document.querySelector('.gauge-container'),\n gauge_object = svg.select('.gauge-container'),\n props = gaugechart.getProperties(),\n size = autoHeight(gauge_element);\n \n svg.attr(\"viewBox\", [0, 0, gaugechart.getProperties().width, size.h + 2 * props.margin]);\n gauge_object.attr(\"transform\", `translate(${props.width / 2}, ${-size.y + props.margin})`);\n \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1161,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1021,"value":"viewof map_type = radio({\n options: [\n { label: 'Together', value: 'Together' },\n { label: 'Broken', value: 'Broken' }\n ],\n value: 'Together'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1019,"value":"viewof shade_by = radio({\n options: [\n { label: '538', value: '538' },\n { label: 'JHK', value: 'JHK' },\n { label: 'DDHQ', value: 'DDHQ' },\n { label: 'RWH', value: 'RWH' }\n ],\n value: '538'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1016,"value":"legend_swatch = legend({\n color: d3.scaleLinear([0, 0.5, 1], [\"#ea5353\", \"#fafafa\", \"#3487e0\"]),\n title: \"Harris Odds of Winning\",\n tickFormat: \"%\",\n tickSize: 0,\n height: 44,\n width: width / 3\n});","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1023,"value":"tilegram = make_tilegram()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":620,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1318,"value":"viewof models = radio({\n options: [\n { label: 'All Models', value: 'All Models' },\n { label: 'Model Avg.', value: 'Model Avg.' }\n ],\n value: 'All Models'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":990,"value":"viewof competitive = radio({\n options: [\n { label: 'All States', value: 'All States' },\n { label: 'Competitive', value: 'Competitive' }\n ],\n value: 'All States'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":893,"value":"stateLegend = legend({\n color: d3.scaleLinear([0, 0.5, 1], [\"#ea5353\", \"#fafafa\", \"#3487e0\"]),\n title: \"Harris Odds of Winning\",\n tickFormat: \"%\",\n tickSize: 0,\n height: 44,\n width: width / 3\n});","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":783,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":630,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1220,"value":"viewof models_table = radio({\n options: [\n { label: 'All Models', value: 'All Models' },\n { label: 'Model Avg.', value: 'Model Avg.' }\n ],\n value: 'All Models'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1294,"value":"viewof competitive_table = radio({\n options: [\n { label: 'All States', value: 'All States' },\n { label: 'Competitive', value: 'Competitive' }\n ],\n value: 'All States'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":82,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1360,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1537,"value":"viewof x_axis = radio({\n title: \"X-Axis\",\n options: [\n { label: '538', value: '538' },\n { label: 'JHK', value: 'JHK' },\n { label: 'DDHQ', value: 'DDHQ' },\n { label: 'RWH', value: 'RWH' },\n { label: 'Model Avg.', value: 'Model Avg.' }\n ],\n value: '538'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1543,"value":"viewof y_axis = radio({\n title: \"Y-Axis\",\n options: [\n { label: 'JHK', value: 'JHK' },\n { label: 'DDHQ', value: 'DDHQ' },\n { label: 'RWH', value: 'RWH' },\n { label: '538', value: '538' },\n { label: 'Model Avg.', value: 'Model Avg.' }\n ],\n value: 'JHK'\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1370,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2186,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2191,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":126,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2193,"value":"$38","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":97,"value":"electionColorScale = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain([0, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 1])\n .range([\"#e84343\", \"#f8ebeb\", \"#fafafa\", \"#e6eef7\", \"#0b70db\"]);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1731,"value":"harrisColorScale = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain([0.5, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1])\n .range([\"#fafafa\", \"#e6eef7\", \"#b6d4f1\", \"#6ca8e7\", \"#0b70db\"]);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1734,"value":"trumpColorScale = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain([0.5, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1])\n .range([\"#fafafa\", \"#f8ebeb\", \"#f5c6c6\", \"#ef8b8b\", \"#e84343\"]);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":812,"value":"isCompetitive = d => d.ModelAvg > 0.15 && d.ModelAvg < 0.85;","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1033,"value":"height = 0.625 * width","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1025,"value":"$39","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1060,"value":"info_map = {\n let info_map = new Map();\n mergedData.forEach(function(o) {\n let fips = o.FIPS;\n \n // Skip if FIPS is undefined\n if (fips !== null && !o.State.includes(\"Cd\")) {\n let name = o.State;\n let abbr = o.Abbreviation;\n let electoralVotes = o.electoralVotes;\n let FTE = o.FTE;\n let Standard = o.Standard;\n let DDHQ = o.DDHQ;\n let RWH = o.RWH;\n \n info_map.set(fips, {\n name: name,\n abbr: abbr,\n electoralVotes: electoralVotes,\n FTE: FTE,\n Standard: Standard,\n DDHQ: DDHQ,\n RWH: RWH,\n });\n }\n });\n return info_map;\n}\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1037,"value":"broken_tile_boundaries = {\n let map_file = await FileAttachment(\n \"new_electoral_broken_tile_boundaries.topo.json\"\n ).json();\n let boundaries = topojson.feature(map_file, map_file.objects.tiles);\n return boundaries;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1048,"value":"broken_tiles = {\n let map_file = await FileAttachment(\n \"new_electoral_broken_tiles.topo.json\"\n ).json();\n let states = topojson.feature(map_file, map_file.objects.tiles);\n return states;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1044,"value":"tile_boundaries = {\n let map_file = await FileAttachment(\n \"new_electoral_boundary_tiles.topo-2.json\"\n ).json();\n let boundaries = topojson.feature(map_file, map_file.objects.tiles);\n return boundaries;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1040,"value":"tiles = {\n let map_file = await FileAttachment(\"new_electoral_tiles.topo-1.json\").json();\n let states = topojson.feature(map_file, map_file.objects.tiles);\n return states;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1658,"value":"electionData = (await FileAttachment(\"pres24_scrape_stateodds_output@73.csv\").csv())\n .map(d => {\n const values = [+d.FTE, +d.Standard, +d.DDHQ, +d.RWH];\n // Sort the values to find the median\n values.sort((a, b) => a - b);\n \n // Calculate the median manually\n const middle = Math.floor(values.length / 2);\n const median = values.length % 2 === 0 ? (values[middle - 1] + values[middle]) / 2 : values[middle];\n \n return {\n ...d,\n ModelAvg: median\n };\n })\n .sort((a, b) => b.ModelAvg - a.ModelAvg);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":252,"value":"$3a","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"mergedData = electionData.map(d => {\n const electoralVote = electoralVotes.find(ev => ev.state === d.State);\n return {\n ...d,\n electoralVotes: electoralVote ? electoralVote.votes : 0\n };\n});","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":258,"value":"bucketOrder = [\n \"0-10%\", \"10-20%\", \"20-30%\", \"30-40%\", \"40-50%\",\n \"50-60%\", \"60-70%\", \"70-80%\", \"80-90%\", \"90-100%\"\n];","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":509,"value":"$3b","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":403,"value":"$3c","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1904,"value":"silver_odds = 0.50","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2134,"value":"economist_odds = 0.56","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1974,"value":"model_avg = electionData.filter(d => d.State === 'Electoral College')\n .map(d => (\n (parseFloat(d.FTE) || 0) + \n (parseFloat(d.Standard) || 0) + \n (parseFloat(d.DDHQ) || 0) + \n (parseFloat(d.RWH) || 0) +\n (parseFloat(silver_odds) || 0) +\n (parseFloat(economist_odds) || 0)\n ) / 6)[0].toFixed(3);\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":914,"value":"tooltip = d3.select(\"body\").append(\"div\")\n .attr(\"class\", \"tooltip\")\n .style(\"background-color\", \"#f9f9f9\")\n .style(\"border\", \"1px solid #ccc\")\n .style(\"padding\", \"10px\")\n .style(\"position\", \"absolute\")\n .style(\"visibility\", \"hidden\")\n .style(\"font-family\", \"Georgia, serif\")\n .style(\"font-size\", \"14px\")\n .style(\"pointer-events\", \"none\");","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1802,"value":"function autoHeight(el) {\n var box = el.getBBox();\n return { y: box.y, h: box.height }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1925,"value":"$3d","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1051,"value":"import { legend, swatches } from \"@d3/color-legend\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":723,"value":"import {select, radio} from \"@jashkenas/inputs\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":120,"value":"$3e","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1124,"value":"style = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1057,"value":"tippy = require(\"tippy.js@6\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1054,"value":"topojson = require(\"topojson-client@3\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":15,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@7\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W3f","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"

2024 Presidential Election Forecasts

2024 Presidential Election Needle

2024 Presidential Electoral Map

Path to 270

State Odds

Correlation Plot

Expected Correct Calls

Data and Code