2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"Vic Stage 4 Metro Lockdown | Ryan Seddon | Observable"}] 33:T849,{ const gonnaMakeIt = Math.floor(exponentialDecay) <= step3Target && Math.floor(exponentialDecayUnknown) <= step3UnknownTarget; const date = `2020-${latestdata[0].split('/')[1]}-${ latestdata[0].split('/')[0] }`; const budget = `${MAX_ALLOWED_CASES - fourteenDayCountdownTotal} remaining cases before we blow the budget`; return html`

🍩🍩 We're good this notebook is no longer relevant! 🍩🍩

${daysUntilNextStep} days until step 3.1 (${moment( step3DateMaybe ).format('MMM Do')})

Numbers as of ${moment(date).format( "ddd, MMM Do" )}

${budget}

${latestdata[1]}

Net new cases

${latestdata[latestdata.length - 1]}

14 day rolling avg

${(pChange * 100).toFixed(2)}%

% change of cases

${latestUnknownData[1]}

Cases with no known source

${(pChangeUnknown * 100).toFixed(2)}%

% change of unknown cases

${exponentialDecay}

Projected 14 day avg

${exponentialDecayUnknown}

Projected cases with unknown source

${gonnaMakeIt ? "Yes" : "No"}

On target for step 3 avg of ${step3Target} with unknown cases <= ${step3UnknownTarget}?

`; }34:T461,// Here cause I learnt something about how to handle a streamed api response spreadsheet = { /*fetch(url) .then(d => { const reader = d.body.getReader(); return new ReadableStream({ start(controller) { return pump(); function pump() { return reader.read().then(({ done, value }) => { if (done) { controller.close(); return; } controller.enqueue(value); return pump(); }); } } }); }) .then(stream => new Response(stream)) .then(res => res.text().then(txt => { const parser = new DOMParser(); const node = parser.parseFromString(txt, "text/html"); const [t1, t2, ...tRest] = node.body.querySelectorAll('table'); const rows = t2.querySelectorAll('tr'); const data = [...rows] .slice(1) .map(row => { const tds = row.querySelectorAll('td'); return [tds[0].textContent, tds[2].textContent, tds[6].textContent]; }) .filter(items => items[2] !== ""); return data; }) )*/ }35:T424,html``36:[] 31:{"id":"8b5feda3582c46a1","slug":"vic-stage-4-metro-lockdown","title":"Vic Stage 4 Metro Lockdown","thumbnail":"298b1e8dc6f69fb16f252da4bc13df95d2107a0b61d6d61466ed919ea4867407","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-09-07T01:09:52.535Z","update_time":"$D2020-11-09T22:43:47.299Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-09-08T04:17:44.276Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"cd78d380af44b04c","login":"ryanseddon","name":"Ryan Seddon","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b2f992859f577d48af545def264d0fb872c02baf1f96b8fa789f9926f6797ecd","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":639,"publish_version":639,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"484caa07491278f7","login":"ryanseddon","name":"Ryan Seddon","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b2f992859f577d48af545def264d0fb872c02baf1f96b8fa789f9926f6797ecd","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"484caa07491278f7","login":"ryanseddon","name":"Ryan Seddon","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b2f992859f577d48af545def264d0fb872c02baf1f96b8fa789f9926f6797ecd","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Vic Stage 4 Metro Lockdown","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Vic Stage 4 Metro Lockdown\nAre we on track for the next step in the roadmap?\n* Roadmap: https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps\n* Data sourced from [covid19data.com.au](https://www.covid19data.com.au/)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":64,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":248,"value":"md`\n## Modelling\nTo get projected value I take the percentage change from the last 2 values and extrapolate the final number out from the scheduled date in the roadmap.\n\nThis is called an [exponential decay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay) in the math world.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":319,"value":"tex`y=a(1-b)^x`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":95,"value":"md`---\n## Appendix`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":539,"value":"MAX_ALLOWED_CASES = step3Target * 21","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":312,"value":"exponentialDecay = (latestdata[2] * (1 - pChange) ** daysUntilNextStep).toFixed(\n 2\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":491,"value":"exponentialDecayUnknown = (\n latestUnknownData[2] *\n (1 - pChangeUnknown) ** daysUntilNextStep\n).toFixed(2)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":144,"value":"projectedDecrease = {\n // Extrapolate percentage change across remaining days until step date\n // See exponentialDecay above for formula to do this\n const [, , val] = latestdata;\n let lastVal = val;\n\n const vals = Array(daysUntilNextStep)\n .fill('x')\n .map((acc, day, id, arr) => {\n const change = lastVal * (1 - Math.abs(pChange));\n lastVal = change;\n\n return change;\n }, []);\n\n return vals;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":509,"value":"projectedUnknownDecrease = {\n // Extrapolate percentage change across remaining days until step 2 date\n // See exponentialDecay above for formula to do this\n const [, , val] = latestUnknownData;\n let lastVal = val;\n\n const vals = Array(daysUntilNextStep)\n .fill('x')\n .map((acc, day, id, arr) => {\n const change = lastVal * (1 - Math.abs(pChangeUnknown));\n lastVal = change;\n\n return change;\n }, []);\n\n return vals;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":420,"value":"projectedDecreaseSparkline = sparkline(projectedDecrease)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":514,"value":"projectedUnknownDecreaseSparkline = sparkline(projectedUnknownDecrease)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"step2Date = moment('2020-09-28')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":190,"value":"step2Target = 50","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":464,"value":"step3Target = 5","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":517,"value":"step3UnknownTarget = 5","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":461,"value":"step3Date = moment('2020-10-19')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":596,"value":"step3DateMaybe = moment('2020-10-26')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":154,"value":"daysUntilNextStep = step3DateMaybe.diff(moment(), 'days') + 1","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":371,"value":"meanRollingPChange = {\n const lastFortnight = cases.slice(-14);\n const avgs = [];\n\n for (let i = 0; i < lastFortnight.length; i = i + 2) {\n avgs.push(getPChange([lastFortnight[i], lastFortnight[i + 1]]));\n }\n\n return d3.mean(avgs);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":363,"value":"getPChange = vals => {\n const [d1, d2] = vals.reverse();\n const v1 = parseFloat(d1[d1.length - 1]);\n const v2 = parseFloat(d2[d2.length - 1]);\n\n return Math.abs((v1 - v2) / ((v1 + v2) / 2));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":498,"value":"pChangeUnknown = getPChange(last2UnknownValues)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":113,"value":"last2Values = cases.slice(-2)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":112,"value":"pChange = getPChange(last2Values)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":47,"value":"latestdata = cases[cases.length - 1]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":484,"value":"latestUnknownData = unknown[unknown.length - 1]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":494,"value":"last2UnknownValues = {\n const pair = unknown.slice(-2);\n\n return pair.map(p => p.slice(0, 3));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":478,"value":"unknown = data.unknown.slice(-14)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":475,"value":"cases = data.cases.slice(-14)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":553,"value":"fourteenDayCountdownTotal = d3.sum(\n cases\n .filter(c => {\n const [date] = c;\n const d = `2020-${date.split('/')[1]}-${date.split('/')[0]}`;\n\n return moment(d).isSameOrAfter('2020-10-05');\n })\n .map(x => x[1])\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":332,"value":"// Keep getting PR_END_OF_FILE errors???\ndata = fetch(\"https://c19.ryanseddon.workers.dev\").then(res => res.json())","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":146,"value":"moment = require(\"moment\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":386,"value":"d3 = require('d3-arrays')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":417,"value":"sparkline = stdlib.UnicodeColumnChartSparkline","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":397,"value":"stdlib = require(\"https://unpkg.com/@stdlib/stdlib@0.0.34/dist/stdlib-flat.min.js\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":65,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"