29:null 2a:["$","title",null,{"children":"Fake news & COVID-19 en América del Sur | Sylvain Lesage | Observable"}] 2f:T501,md`## ¿Pero qué tal los datos? No logré encontrar en los sitios de la [OMS](https://www.who.int/) (ni de la [OPS](https://www.paho.org/es)) datos referidos al número de tests realizados en cada país. Hay datos de casos confirmados, de recuperados, de muertos, pero nada sobre los tests. El sitio [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing) recopila las informaciones reportadas por las autoridades de cada país, pero no publica más que 42 países a la fecha de hoy. En gris, los países sin datos publicados:

Nota: los/as invito a leer sus **advertencias** antes de sacar conclusiones de los números de tests: *For many countries however, available data on testing is either incomplete or else completely unavailable. This makes it impossible for their citizens and for researchers to assess the extent and significance of their testing efforts.* - [COVID Testing](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing). Finalmente, encontre datos en la página [COVID-19 Testing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing) de Wikipedia, salvo para Paraguay, Guyana francesa, Guyana, Surinam e Islas Malvinas. Son datos del 12 de abril de 2020: `30:T621,md`Hay una correlación clara entre el número de casos confirmados y el número de tests (por 100.000 habitantes), y **Venezuela, Bolivia y Brazil son los países que menos tests realizan**. Pero sabemos que [correlación no es causalidad](https://es.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Correlaci%C3%B3n_no_implica_causalidad). No tengo aquí la información suficiente para saber si la baja cantidad de casos en estos países se debe a qué la enfermedad no es (todavia) muy presente, si se debe a la baja cantidad de tests realizados, o lo más probable, a un conjunto complejo de razones. ## Conclusión No soy epidemiologo ni nada, así que les dejo investigar ustedes y sacar sus propias conclusiones 😛. Aquí algunas referencias para visualizar la pandemia: - [Covid-19 derived chart (South America)](https://observablehq.com/@fil/covid-19-derived-chart#%7B%22countryFilter%22%3A%5B%22South%20America%22%5D%2C%22axisX%22%3A%22date%22%2C%22axisY%22%3A%22confirmed%20per%20100k%22%2C%22groupBy%22%3A%22country%22%2C%22useLog%22%3Afalse%2C%22showPoints%22%3A%22Show%20points%22%2C%22useRegression%22%3Afalse%2C%22regressionPeriod%22%3A3%2C%22regressionDelay%22%3A0%2C%22deathsThreshold%22%3A0%2C%22populationThreshold%22%3A%22%E2%80%94%22%2C%22smooth%22%3A0%2C%22smoothGaussian%22%3Afalse%7D) - Johns Hopkins’ [Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)](https://systems.jhu.edu/) - [COVID-19 Confirmed vs. New cases](https://observablehq.com/@yy/covid-19-confirmed-vs-new-cases) - [Quarantine Now](https://observablehq.com/@yurivish/quarantine-now) 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Sur","thumbnail":"dd43ab7414e97b6beba1c4be1874073bb5ae6dad8a4d29b92c3ec21d41b68aec","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-04-12T09:17:49.603Z","update_time":"$D2020-04-20T18:25:58.518Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-04-12T12:03:03.788Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":3,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"5c7b4ebed88da11a","login":"severo","name":"Sylvain Lesage","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/7713195c83e5bfd8090ffe70c871c23e743c711e9e712675c99a8960ca8c7944","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":317,"publish_version":317,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"bf1872cca880d345","login":"severo","name":"Sylvain Lesage","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/7713195c83e5bfd8090ffe70c871c23e743c711e9e712675c99a8960ca8c7944","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"bf1872cca880d345","login":"severo","name":"Sylvain 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de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. No es el caso.\n\nEl principal indicio que me hizo dudar de la veracidad de la información es el error de dedo en el logo (*Oganización* en vez de *O**r**ganización*). Imposible que un comunicado oficial de la OMS contenga este tipo de error, tenía que ser un logo falso. Otro indicio es que en sus comunicaciones la OMS usa de manera casi exclusiva el término COVID-19 que se refiere a la enfermedad, y no así el término coronavirus que se refiere al virus.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"html`\n\n

\n ${imgs.map(src => html`

`)}\n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":125,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":81,"value":"createTable1(testsByCountry)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":143,"value":"md`Dando la diferencia de dos días entre la fecha del supesto reporte de la OMS (documento falso), y la fecha de hoy, los valores *parecen sensatos*.\n\nLa diferencia para Bolivia no es muy grande (591 en el documento, 2.185 aquí) y se puede suponer que la diferencia se debe a la actualización de estos días.\n\nSin embargo, claramente para Venezuela, la suma no guarda ningún tipo de relación (139.282 en el documento falso, 1.779 en los datos de Wikipedia). Podemos suponer entonces que el origen del documento falso tiene que ver con Venezuela, pero como siempre en este tipo de falsificaciones, y de manera general en temas de seguridad informática, hay que tener cuidado el momento de designar a un sospechoso o un culpable (problema llamado *[cyber attribution](https://www.qwant.com/?q=cyber+attribution)*).`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":146,"value":"md`## ¿Cuál es la realidad entonces?\n\n*Advertencia (bis): los datos de cada país provienen de los reportes de las autoridades nacionales de salud, por lo que la confianza en los datos deriva directamente de la confianza que cada uno/a puede tener en dichas autoridades.*\n\nTomando como fuente los datos de la página de Wikipedia, y reportando el número de tests al número de habitantes de cada país (datos por 100.000 habitantes), obtenemos:\n\n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":199,"value":"createTable2(testsPer100KByCountry)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":207,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":140,"value":"md`---\n\n*Datos y código*\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":315,"value":"viewof dataset = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"testsByCountry = countries.map(country => {\n const wikipedia = data.find(row =>\n row['Country or region'].text.includes(country)\n );\n return {\n country,\n wikipedia,\n confirmed: wikipedia.Positive.number,\n tested: wikipedia.Tests.number\n };\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":189,"value":"testsPer100KByCountry = countries.map(country => {\n const wikipedia = data.find(\n row => row['Country or region'].text.includes(country)\n //row['Country'].text.includes(country)\n );\n return {\n country,\n wikipedia,\n confirmed: wikipedia.Positive.number,\n confirmedPer100K:\n (100000 * wikipedia.Positive.number) / population[country],\n tested: wikipedia.Tests.number,\n testedPer100K: (100000 * wikipedia.Tests.number) / population[country]\n };\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":308,"value":"data = ({ data20200412, dataToday }[dataset])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":219,"value":"// Datos a la fecha 12 de abril de 2020\ndata20200412 = FileAttachment(\"data.json\").json()\n\n// Para actualizar los datos, jalando de Wikipedia, remplazar por este código:\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":303,"value":"dataToday = await wtf\n .fetch('Template:COVID-19_testing', {\n 'Api-User-Agent': 'wtf_wikipedia example'\n })\n .then(\n d =>\n d\n .tables(0)\n .json()\n .map(row => ({ ...row, 'Country or region': row['Country'] })) // Format has changed\n )","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":162,"value":"population = ({\n Brazil: 211380843,\n Chile: 19107216,\n Peru: 32131400,\n Ecuador: 17463484,\n Colombia: 49395678,\n Argentina: 44938712,\n Uruguay: 3518552,\n Bolivia: 11469896,\n Venezuela: 32219521\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"countries = [\n 'Brazil',\n 'Chile',\n 'Peru',\n 'Ecuador',\n 'Colombia',\n 'Argentina',\n 'Uruguay',\n 'Bolivia',\n 'Venezuela'\n]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":75,"value":"createTable1 = rows => html`\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n ${rows.map(\n row => html`\n \n \n \n \n \n `\n )}\n\n

País	Casos confirmados	Tests
${row.country}	${row.confirmed}	${row.tested}

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":196,"value":"createTable2 = rows => html`\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n ${rows\n .sort((a, b) => b.testedPer100K - a.testedPer100K)\n .map(\n row => html`\n \n \n \n \n \n `\n )}\n\n

País	Casos confirmados (por 100.000 hab)	Tests (por 100.000 hab)
${row.country}	${row.confirmedPer100K.toFixed(0)}	${row.testedPer100K.toFixed(0)}

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":101,"value":"imgs = Promise.all([\n FileAttachment(\"EVVE2IhXsAsFMqX.jpeg\").url(),\n FileAttachment(\"EVVE2IhXsAsFMqX (copie).jpeg\").url(),\n FileAttachment(\"EVVE2IhXsAsFMqX (copie)3.jpeg\").url()\n])","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"wtf = require('wtf_wikipedia')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W31","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2e:"$2d:body"