45:["$","title",null,{"children":"Untitled | Simranjeet Singh | Observable"}] 4d:Tc1c,const viewA = (() => { const ranked = species.filter(d => d.id_level === "Species"); const unknown = species.filter(d => d.id_level === "Unknown"); const labelled = ["Mourning dove", "Barn swallow", "Red-tailed hawk", "Canada goose", "Turkey vulture", "White-tailed deer", "Black vulture", "Snow goose", "Rock pigeon"]; return Plot.plot({ title: "A · What gets hit most is not what does damage", subtitle: `Sketch subset: ${ranked.length} species with ≥100 damage-coded reports, 1990–2026 · whiskers = 95% CI · hollow rings = unknown birds (never ranked)`, caption: "INTERACTION (planned): toggle Species ↔ Family · FAA-region dropdown incl. 'Not reported' (Q2) · 'facet by size' · hover tooltip with n_reports, n_damage_coded, n_damaging, CI · brushing species filters Views C and E", width, height: 540, marginLeft: 60, marginRight: 150, x: {type: "log", domain: [90, 80000], label: "Reported strikes, 1990–2026 (log scale) →", grid: true}, y: {domain: [0, 100], percent: true, label: "↑ Damage rate among damage-coded reports (%)", grid: true}, color: {domain: sizes.domain, range: sizes.colors}, symbol: {domain: sizes.domain, range: sizes.symbols, legend: true, label: "Modal reported size"}, marks: [ Plot.ruleX(ranked, {x: "n_reports", y1: "ci95_lo", y2: "ci95_hi", stroke: "modal_size", strokeOpacity: 0.35}), Plot.dot(ranked, {x: "n_reports", y: "damage_rate", symbol: "modal_size", fill: "modal_size", r: 4, stroke: "white", strokeWidth: 0.5, tip: true, channels: {Species: "species", "Damage-coded": "n_damage_coded", Damaging: "n_damaging"}}), Plot.text(ranked.filter(d => labelled.includes(d.species) && !["Turkey vulture", "Mourning dove", "Barn swallow"].includes(d.species)), {x: "n_reports", y: "damage_rate", text: "species", dx: 7, textAnchor: "start", fontSize: 11}), Plot.text(ranked.filter(d => ["Turkey vulture", "Mourning dove"].includes(d.species)), {x: "n_reports", y: "damage_rate", text: "species", dx: -7, dy: -9, textAnchor: "end", fontSize: 11}), Plot.text(ranked.filter(d => d.species === "Barn swallow"), {x: "n_reports", y: "damage_rate", text: "species", dx: -7, dy: 8, textAnchor: "end", fontSize: 11}), Plot.dot(unknown, {x: "n_reports", y: "damage_rate", r: 7, stroke: "#52514e", strokeWidth: 1.5, fill: "none"}), Plot.text(unknown, {x: "n_reports", y: "damage_rate", text: d => d.species.replace("Unknown bird - ", "Unknown – ").replace(/^Unknown bird$/, "Unknown – size n/r"), dx: 10, textAnchor: "start", fontStyle: "italic", fill: "#52514e"}), Plot.ruleY([d3.median(ranked, d => d.damage_rate)], {stroke: "#8a8984", strokeDasharray: "2,3"}), Plot.ruleX([d3.median(ranked, d => d.n_reports)], {stroke: "#8a8984", strokeDasharray: "2,3"}), Plot.text(["rare but damaging"], {frameAnchor: "top-left", dx: 6, dy: 6, fill: "#8a8984", fontStyle: "italic"}), Plot.text(["common, rarely damaging ↓"], {x: 3000, y: 0.2, textAnchor: "start", fill: "#8a8984", fontStyle: "italic"}) ] }); })(); display(viewA);4e:T5e0,const viewASlope = (() => { const top = species.filter(d => d.id_level === "Species").sort((a, b) => a.frequency_rank - b.frequency_rank).slice(0, 12); const step = 236 / 13; const rows = top.flatMap(d => [ {species: d.species, size: d.modal_size, side: "Rank by frequency", pos: d.frequency_rank * step, label: `#${d.frequency_rank} ${d.species}`}, {species: d.species, size: d.modal_size, side: "Rank by damage rate", pos: d.damage_rate_rank, label: `#${d.damage_rate_rank}`} ]); return Plot.plot({ title: "A (companion) · The most-struck species fall when re-ranked by damage rate", subtitle: "12 most-struck species in the sketch subset · right side = rank among all 236 ranked species", width: 560, height: 520, marginLeft: 180, marginRight: 60, x: {type: "point", domain: ["Rank by frequency", "Rank by damage rate"], label: null, axis: "top"}, y: {domain: [0, 240], reverse: true, axis: null}, color: {domain: sizes.domain, range: sizes.colors, legend: true}, marks: [ Plot.line(rows, {x: "side", y: "pos", z: "species", stroke: "size", strokeWidth: 1.6}), Plot.dot(rows, {x: "side", y: "pos", fill: "size", r: 3}), Plot.text(rows.filter(d => d.side === "Rank by frequency"), {x: "side", y: "pos", text: "label", dx: -8, textAnchor: "end"}), Plot.text(rows.filter(d => d.side === "Rank by damage rate"), {x: "side", y: "pos", text: "label", dx: 8, textAnchor: "start", fill: "#52514e"}) ] }); })(); display(viewASlope);4f:T4d3,const viewB = Plot.plot({ title: "B · Reports keep rising; the share that damages aircraft does not", subtitle: "Reports per year by damage status, 1990–2026 · dashed outline = 2026 partial year (through Oct, validated to late Aug)", caption: "INTERACTION (planned): hover a year → all counts and rates · toggle y between count and share of reports · brushing years filters Views A, C, E", width, height: 360, marginLeft: 60, marginRight: 40, x: {label: "Incident year →", tickFormat: "d"}, y: {label: "↑ Reports per year", grid: true}, color: {legend: true, domain: ["Damaging (M, M?, S, D)", "Not damaging (N)", "Damage not coded"], range: ["#eb6834", "#2a78d6", "#d9d8d3"]}, marks: [ Plot.rectY(annualStatus, {x: "year", interval: 1, y: "n", fill: "status", inset: 1, order: ["Damaging (M, M?, S, D)", "Not damaging (N)", "Damage not coded"], tip: true}), Plot.rectY(annualRate.filter(d => d.partial_year), {x: "year", interval: 1, y: "n_reports", fill: "none", stroke: "#0b0b0b", strokeDasharray: "4,3"}), Plot.text(annualRate.filter(d => d.partial_year), {x: d => d.year + 0.5, y: "n_reports", text: () => "partial", dy: -8, fontSize: 10}), Plot.ruleY([0]) ] }); display(viewB);50:T442,const viewBRate = Plot.plot({ subtitle: "Damage rate per year · band = 95% CI · dashed = FAA convention (damaging ÷ all reports) · hollow points = 2026 partial", width, height: 240, marginLeft: 60, marginRight: 40, x: {label: "Incident year →", tickFormat: "d"}, y: {label: "↑ Damage rate (%)", percent: true, domain: [0, 27], grid: true}, marks: [ Plot.areaY(annualRate.filter(d => !d.partial_year), {x: "year", y1: "ci95_lo", y2: "ci95_hi", fill: "#eb6834", fillOpacity: 0.2}), Plot.lineY(annualRate.filter(d => !d.partial_year), {x: "year", y: "damage_rate", stroke: "#eb6834", strokeWidth: 2, tip: true}), Plot.lineY(annualRate.filter(d => !d.partial_year), {x: "year", y: "damage_rate_all_reports", stroke: "#52514e", strokeDasharray: "5,4"}), Plot.dot(annualRate.filter(d => d.partial_year), {x: "year", y: "damage_rate", stroke: "#eb6834", fill: "white"}), Plot.text(annualRate.filter(d => d.year === 1990 || d.year === 2025), {x: "year", y: "damage_rate", text: d => (d.damage_rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%", dy: -10}) ] }); display(viewBRate);51:T6da,const viewC1 = (() => { const known = components.filter(d => d.component !== "No component flagged"); const none = components.find(d => d.component === "No component flagged"); const order = d3.sort(known, d => -d.n_struck).map(d => d.component); const struck = Plot.plot({ title: "C1 · Where on the aircraft strikes do damage", subtitle: `How often each component is struck (rows overlap) · ${none.n_struck.toLocaleString()} reports flag no component`, width: Math.max(340, width / 2 - 24), height: 380, marginLeft: 100, x: {label: "Reports where the component was struck →", grid: true, tickFormat: "s"}, y: {domain: order, label: null}, marks: [Plot.barX(known, {x: "n_struck", y: "component", fill: "#2a78d6", tip: true}), Plot.ruleX([0])] }); const rate = Plot.plot({ subtitle: "How often that strike damages the component (95% CI)", caption: "INTERACTION (planned): click a component → filters View A (e.g. Engine: which species reach engines) · hover for n_struck, n_damaged, CI", width: Math.max(340, width / 2 - 24), height: 380, marginLeft: 100, marginRight: 50, x: {label: "Component damage rate (%) →", percent: true, domain: [0, 80], grid: true}, y: {domain: order, label: null}, marks: [ Plot.ruleY(known, {y: "component", x1: "ci95_lo", x2: "ci95_hi", stroke: "#eb6834"}), Plot.dot(known, {x: "component_damage_rate", y: "component", fill: "#eb6834", r: 4.5, tip: true}), Plot.text(known, {x: "component_damage_rate", y: "component", text: d => (d.component_damage_rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%", dx: 10, textAnchor: "start"}) ] }); return htl.html`

${struck}${rate}

`; })(); display(viewC1);52:T795,const viewC2 = (() => { const bands = [">3,500 ft", "1,501–3,500 ft", "501–1,500 ft", "1–500 ft", "0 ft (on ground)", "Not reported"]; const color = {domain: ["Departure", "Arrival"], range: ["#eb6834", "#2a78d6"], legend: true}; const counts = Plot.plot({ title: "C2 · Fewer strikes up high, but more of them do damage", subtitle: "Reports by FAA height band (altitude reads upward) · 'Not reported' kept as its own band", width: Math.max(340, width / 2 - 24), height: 340, marginLeft: 110, marginRight: 80, x: {label: "Reports →", grid: true, tickFormat: "s"}, y: {domain: bands, label: null}, fy: {domain: ["Departure", "Arrival"], label: null}, color, marks: [Plot.barX(phaseHeight, {x: "n_reports", y: "height_band", fy: "phase_group", fill: "phase_group", fillOpacity: d => d.height_band === "Not reported" ? 0.35 : 1, tip: true}), Plot.ruleX([0])] }); const rates = Plot.plot({ subtitle: "Damage rate by band (95% CI) · dashed line = 500 ft", width: Math.max(340, width / 2 - 24), height: 340, marginLeft: 110, marginRight: 80, x: {label: "Damage rate (%) →", percent: true, domain: [0, 30], grid: true}, y: {domain: bands, label: null}, fy: {domain: ["Departure", "Arrival"], label: null}, color, marks: [ Plot.ruleY(phaseHeight, {y: "height_band", fy: "phase_group", x1: "ci95_lo", x2: "ci95_hi", stroke: "phase_group"}), Plot.dot(phaseHeight, {x: "damage_rate", y: "height_band", fy: "phase_group", fill: "phase_group", r: 4, tip: true}), Plot.text(phaseHeight, {x: "ci95_hi", y: "height_band", fy: "phase_group", text: d => (d.damage_rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%", dx: 6, textAnchor: "start", fontSize: 10}), Plot.ruleY(["1–500 ft"], {dy: -12, stroke: "#8a8984", strokeDasharray: "3,3"}) ] }); return htl.html`

${counts}${rates}

`; })(); display(viewC2);53:T60c,const viewC3 = (() => { const names = ["Jan", "Feb", "Mar", "Apr", "May", "Jun", "Jul", "Aug", "Sep", "Oct", "Nov", "Dec"]; const m = months.map(d => ({...d, name: names[d.month - 1]})); const migr = m.filter(d => d.migration_window !== "Outside migration"); const counts = Plot.plot({ title: "C3 · Strikes peak in summer; damage peaks in winter", subtitle: "All years pooled · shaded = broad migration windows (spring Mar–May, fall Aug–Nov)", width, height: 220, marginLeft: 60, x: {domain: names, label: null, padding: 0.15}, y: {label: "↑ Reports", grid: true, tickFormat: "s"}, marks: [ Plot.barY(migr, {x: "name", y: () => 52000, fill: "#f3efe4", inset: -6}), Plot.barY(m, {x: "name", y: "n_reports", fill: "#2a78d6", tip: true}), Plot.ruleY([0]) ] }); const rate = Plot.plot({ subtitle: "Damage rate per month (95% CI)", width, height: 200, marginLeft: 60, x: {domain: names, label: null, type: "point", padding: 0.5}, y: {label: "↑ Damage rate (%)", percent: true, domain: [0, 20], grid: true}, marks: [ Plot.areaY(m, {x: "name", y1: "ci95_lo", y2: "ci95_hi", fill: "#eb6834", fillOpacity: 0.2}), Plot.lineY(m, {x: "name", y: "damage_rate", stroke: "#eb6834", strokeWidth: 2, marker: "circle", tip: true}), Plot.text(m.filter(d => [1, 7, 12].includes(d.month)), {x: "name", y: "damage_rate", text: d => (d.damage_rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%", dy: -10}) ] }); return htl.html`

${counts}${rate}

`; })(); display(viewC3);54:T498,const viewC3Heat = (() => { const names = ["Jan", "Feb", "Mar", "Apr", "May", "Jun", "Jul", "Aug", "Sep", "Oct", "Nov", "Dec"]; const rows = monthTod.map(d => ({...d, name: names[d.month - 1]})); return Plot.plot({ subtitle: "Month × light condition · shade = damage rate · number = reports · cells with <30 damage-coded reports show 'n<30'", caption: "INTERACTION (planned): click a month column or light-condition row → filters View A · season toggle feeds View E", width, height: 260, marginLeft: 90, x: {domain: names, label: null}, y: {domain: ["Dawn", "Day", "Dusk", "Night", "Not reported"], label: null}, color: {type: "linear", scheme: "blues", domain: [0, 22], percent: true, legend: true, label: "Damage rate (%)"}, marks: [ Plot.cell(rows, {x: "name", y: "time_of_day", fill: "damage_rate", inset: 0.5, tip: true}), Plot.text(rows, {x: "name", y: "time_of_day", fontSize: 10, text: d => d.n_damage_coded < 30 ? "n<30" : d.n_reports >= 1000 ? (d.n_reports / 1000).toFixed(1) + "k" : String(d.n_reports), fill: d => d.damage_rate > 0.12 ? "white" : "black"}) ] }); })(); display(viewC3Heat);55:T4e8,const viewD = (() => { const unknown = airports.find(d => d.airport_id === "UNKNOWN"); const top = airports.filter(d => d.airport_id !== "UNKNOWN"); const shortName = d => `${d.airport_id} · ${d.airport_name.replace(/ (INTL|INTERNATIONAL).*$/, "").slice(0, 26)}`; return Plot.plot({ title: "D · Most reports ≠ most strikes per flight (stretch view)", subtitle: `Top 15 airports by reports · dot size = % damage-coded (small dot ≈ 40%, large ≈ 90%) · UNKNOWN airport (${unknown.n_reports.toLocaleString()} reports) shown separately, never ranked`, caption: "Second panel (after the ATADS operations join): the same airports re-sorted by reports per 100,000 operations, with a slope line from raw rank to rate rank. Fallback: keep this panel titled 'reporting intensity', with no safety claim.", width, height: 420, marginLeft: 230, x: {label: "Reports, 1990–2026 →", grid: true, tickFormat: "s"}, y: {label: null}, r: {domain: [0, 1], range: [0, 9]}, marks: [ Plot.ruleY(top, {y: shortName, x1: 0, x2: "n_reports", stroke: "#e6e5e1"}), Plot.dot(top, {x: "n_reports", y: shortName, r: "pct_damage_coded", fill: "#2a78d6", sort: {y: "-x"}, tip: true}) ] }); })(); display(viewD);56:T74f,const viewE = (() => { const bars = Plot.plot({ title: "E · Where reported damaging strikes concentrate", subtitle: "Top 15 species group × season × phase cells · bar = share of all 22,290 damaging strikes · label = cumulative share and damage rate in the cell", width, height: 430, marginLeft: 260, marginRight: 40, x: {label: "Share of all damaging strikes (%) →", percent: true, grid: true, domain: [0, 4.5]}, y: {domain: combos.map(d => d.label), label: null}, marks: [ Plot.barX(combos, {x: "share_of_all_damaging", y: "label", fill: "#eb6834", tip: true}), Plot.text(combos, {x: "share_of_all_damaging", y: "label", dx: 6, textAnchor: "start", fontSize: 10, text: d => `${(d.share_of_all_damaging * 100).toFixed(1)}% (cum. ${(d.cumulative_share * 100).toFixed(1)}%) · rate in cell ${(d.damage_rate_in_cell * 100).toFixed(0)}% of ${d.n_damage_coded_cell.toLocaleString()}`}), Plot.ruleX([0]) ] }); const whole = Plot.plot({ subtitle: "All damaging strikes = 100% · gray = species or phase not reported", caption: "Caption in the final view: share of REPORTED damaging strikes, not a probability of damage per flight · INTERACTION (planned): no filters of its own, it recomputes from the filters set in Views A–C", width, height: 110, marginLeft: 20, marginRight: 20, x: {percent: true, domain: [0, 100], label: null}, y: {axis: null}, color: {domain: ["Top 15 cells", "Other known cells", "Species or phase not reported"], range: ["#eb6834", "#f5c9b5", "#d9d8d3"]}, marks: [ Plot.barX(damagingWhole, Plot.stackX({x: "share", fill: "part", inset: 1})), Plot.text(damagingWhole, Plot.stackX({x: "share", text: d => `${d.part} ${(d.share * 100).toFixed(1)}%`, fontSize: 11})) ] }); return htl.html`

${bars}${whole}

`; })(); 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true});\nconst annualStatus = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_annual_status.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst annualRate = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_annual_rate.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst components = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_components.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst phaseHeight = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_phase_height.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst phases = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_phase.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst months = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_month.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst monthTod = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_month_tod.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst airports = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_airports.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst combos = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_combinations.csv\").csv({typed: true});\nconst damagingWhole = await FileAttachment(\"sketch_damaging_whole.csv\").csv({typed: true});","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"js","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"const sizes = ({domain: [\"Small\", \"Medium\", \"Large\"], colors: [\"#2a78d6\", \"#eb6834\", \"#1baf7a\"], symbols: [\"circle\", \"triangle\", \"square\"]});","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"### View A (Q2, Q3) — frequency vs damage 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annual reports by damage status","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":13,"value":"$4f","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"### View B (Q1) — damage rate per year","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":15,"value":"$50","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"### View C1 (Q4) — components","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":17,"value":"$51","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":18,"value":"### View C2 (Q5) — phase x height 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View A updates with its n\",\n width, height: 330, marginLeft: 110, marginRight: 90,\n x: {label: \"Reports →\", grid: true, tickFormat: \"s\"},\n y: {domain: phases.map(d => d.phase), label: null},\n color: {domain: [\"Departure\", \"Arrival\", \"En route\", \"Local\", \"Ground\", \"Not reported\"],\n range: [\"#eb6834\", \"#2a78d6\", \"#52514e\", \"#8a8984\", \"#b9b8b2\", \"#d9d8d3\"], legend: true},\n marks: [\n Plot.barX(phases, {x: \"n_reports\", y: \"phase\", fill: \"phase_group\", tip: true}),\n Plot.text(phases, {x: \"n_reports\", y: \"phase\", text: d => `${(d.damage_rate * 100).toFixed(1)}% damaging`, dx: 6, textAnchor: \"start\", fontSize: 10}),\n Plot.ruleX([0])\n ]\n});\ndisplay(viewC2Phases);","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ts","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":22,"value":"### View C3 (Q6) — month 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