2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"Powerlifting | starkry526 | Observable"}] 31:T82f,md `These results are based on powerlifting data from 2437724 meet result entries downloaded from Open Powerlifting. A full powerlifting meet consists of three events: squat, bench press, and deadlift. In each lift, a lifter gets 3 attempts to lift as much weight as possible. The heaviest successful attempt in each lift counts. The lifter's total is calculated by adding up the heaviest successful attempt from each lift. To account for comparison across lifters of different sex and bodyweight, formulas such as Wilks, Dots, and Glossbrenner were invented. For example, to get a lifter's Wilks score, input the lifter's bodyweight into the appropriate formula (there are different formulas for male and female lifters, and the current convention is that Mx lifters use the male formula) to calculate their Wilks coefficient. That coefficient is multiplied by their total to get the lifter's Wilks score. Dots and Glossbrenner are different formulas. The meet director or federation can choose which formula to use for their meet. There are also many other formulas out there, such as Schwarz, Malone, McCulloch, and IPF points. Different groups of powerlifters have a lot of different opinions! Below is some basic data about the number of lifters achieving totals in each 25kg range. The data is grouped by sex and age. Mx is omitted here because there was not enough data to show up meaningfully in these graphics. Notably, many of the entries have age listed as Null, as Open Powerlifting does not have particularly good records of lifters' age. Thus, there will not be any more analysis based on age. Predictably, the Open age category of 24-34 has the strongest lifters for both males and females, though Juniors at 20-23 come in a close second. Younger and older lifters get gradually weaker the further they are from the Open category. Open Powerlifting actually contains some entries for lifters over age 80, but there was not enough data in categories 70+ to show up meaningfully in these graphics.`32:T7b2,md`

Which federation is the strongest?

As mentioned before, different groups of powerlifters have very different opinions. Unlike Olympic weightlifting, which competes under the umbrella organization USAW (USA Weightlifting) all over the United States, there are many many different powerlifting organizations, called federations, each holding their own meets. The rules differ slightly from federation to federation. One common example that varies between federations is whether the lifter's feet have to be flat on the ground during the bench press. Some sets of rules might be easier, and some federations might attract more serious lifters, so it's natural to ask whether there is an observable strength difference on average between the federations. There are well over 100 federations around the world represented on Open Powerlifting, so the data below only represents federations in the USA. The box and whisker plots below are shown in order of decreasing average total and Wilks by federation. The XPC (Extreme Powerlifting Coalition) came out the strongest, which makes sense, as their biggest event is at the Arnold Sports Festival and requires a qualifying total to participate. They also allow knee wraps and have a multi-ply division. These are types of powerlifting equipment which may increase a lifter's total. Powerlifting equipment will be discussed in more detail below. USAPL (USA Powerlifting), a federation recently gorwing in popularity, came out on the weak side on average. This is not a surprise, as they have the strictest drug testing procedures, the strictest rules (including equipment restrictions), and a 2-hour weigh-in rather than a 24-hour weigh-in (so that lifters cannot cut as much weight and gain it back by the time they have to lift). However, the stricter rules attract some very serious lifters, thus the upper end outliers in USAPL are competitively strong with many of the other federations.`33:T8e3,md`

How much does equipment help?

As previously alluded to, there are different types of equipment categories in powerlifting. The easiest for new lifters to start with is raw powerlifting. The equipment used there is similar to what a regular gym-goer may use: knee sleeves, wrist wraps, and a belt. Equipped powerlifting, on the other hand, allows lifters to don tight canvas suits, which act as a sort of spring at the bottom of a lift. Lifters have the potential to lift more weight with these suits, although they change the lifting technique. Executing lifts well in equipped powerlifting is quite difficult, and quite painful (the tightness of the suit causes pain). Equipped lifters can also use knee wraps instead of knee sleeves for squats. Similar in principle to the suits, knee wraps are very tight, but give potential for squatting more weight. For those who do not want to lift fully equipped but are interested in squatting heavier weight with knee wraps, a raw with wraps (labelled just Wraps) category was introduced, which allows knee wraps but no suits (so bench press and deadlift are the same as the Raw category). One question we may ask is how much equipment helps the lifters. The increasing levels of equipment are: Raw, Wraps, Single-ply (single layer of canvas), Multi-ply (multiple layers of canvas, for even heavier lifts!). Below is a graphic showing average totals by equipment class. Mostly, the increases in totals are predictable, with about a 30-40% jump going from Raw to Multi-ply. For Mx athletes, the data is a bit skewed, but that is due to a low number of data points. There is one peculiarity. For men, the Wraps division actually has a higher average total than the Single-ply division, and for women, the average totals are almost identical. This should not generally be the case, with all else equal between the two divisions. However (more on this later), there is a much higher participation in the Wraps division in recent years. More people are specializing and taking the time to perfect their lifts with that level of equipment. Not as many are taking the time to properly learn to lift Single-ply or Multi-ply. So the average skill level is likely higher in the Wraps division.`34:Tee9,md`There are 16 static graphics below showing the general shape of the data. The forecasted graphics ignore data from 2020 and 2021, since Covid-19 has decreased the total number of powerlifting meets substantially. Years with fewer than 40 entries in the category were omitted. The history of powerlifting shows itself in the data. In the beginning, there were no restrictions on equipment, and knee wraps and canvas suits were invented (anything to help lift more weight). The Raw/Wraps categories are newer, devised for those who didn't have suits or didn't want to lift with them. The lower barrier to entry (suits are expensive and difficult to learn to lift with) has allowed the Raw/Wraps divisions to take off in popularity! Powerlifting offers Bench Only, Deadlift Only, and Push/Pull events for those who can't squat due to injury or prefer to compete without squatting. Data from these events was omitted in order to not artificially lower the average total. For versions of the graphics with mouse-over data (including exact numbers and names of the top Wilks/total each year), see these interactive versions instead! Wilks By Year Equipped F Forecasted Wilks By Year Equipped F Wilks By Year Equipped M Forecasted Wilks By Year Equipped M Wilks By Year Raw and Wraps F Forecasted Wilks By Year Raw and Wraps F Wilks By Year Raw and Wraps M/Mx Forecasted Wilks By Year Raw and Wraps M/Mx Total By Year Equipped F Forecasted Total By Year Equipped F Total By Year Equipped M Forecasted Total By Year Equipped M Total By Year Raw and Wraps F Forecasted Total By Year Raw and Wraps F Total By Year Raw and Wraps M/Mx Forecasted Total By Year Raw and Wraps M/Mx`35:Tadb,md`To see whether specific lifts are getting stronger, here are 8 more graphics with actual and forecasted numbers for squat, bench, and deadlift. Here, the data for Bench Only, Deadlift Only, and Push/Pull are included. It appears that in equipped powerlifting, squats and women's bench press are getting stronger. This makes sense, as equipment helps tremendously in squats and bench press, but barely helps for deadlift. Equipment is constantly improving, and lifters are finding more effective ways to use it. On the Raw/Wraps side, maximum lifts appear to be more stagnant, aside from M/Mx Squat, which may be taking advantage of new wrap technology (thicker and/or more effective wraps are still being made). Of course, these predictions may not be accurate, although they agree with the predictions above that maximum totals will not generally increase for Raw/Wraps divisions. One possible reason is that the rise in popularity of raw powerlifting through 2019 already exhausted most of the genetic and training optimization capabilities of humans, although new innovations can happen any time and may yet be unaccounted for. As before, static graphics will be below, while linked interactive graphics will be here for those interested in exact numbers and lifters' names. For example, one forecasted number of interest is the prediction that in 2027, a woman will bench 265.4 kilograms equipped - that's over 585 pounds! Lifts By Year Equipped F Forecasted Lifts By Year Equipped F Lifts By Year Equipped M Forecasted Lifts By Year Equipped M Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps F Forecasted Wilks By Year Raw and Wraps F Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps M/Mx Forecasted Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps M/Mx`36:T54a,md`

Do equipped powerlifters care less about covid-19?

This was an interesting question that came up from observing the Events Logged data on the graphs above. The drop-off in participation in powerlifting meets in the Raw/Wraps divisions in 2020 and 2021 seemed much greater than the corresponding drop-off for Single-ply/Multi-ply. The following graphic comes from 2019 through 2021 participation data. At first, with data grouped only by year, it seemed to support the hypothesis that equipped powerlifters cared less about quarantining and avoiding competitions than raw lifters. However, upon changing the pie chart slices to be by quarter, a different phenomenon emerged. In Single-ply lifting, which is much more popular than Multi-ply lifting (thus the data is overwhelmingly biased towards Single-ply), by far the strongest participation is in the first quarter (January through March) of every year. This now explains the smaller drop-off in participation in 2020 and 2021. Q1 of 2020 was the very beginning of covid, before information and quarantine policies were widespread. Q1 of 2021, some countries/states were already beginning to emerge from quarantine. It is not fully clear why the vast majority of Single-ply meets logged are in Q1. It may have to do with the Arnold Sports Festival held in March, but that is only a guess.`37:T491,md`

How do Wilks and Dots formulas compare?

In the last couple years, there has been a move away from the previously popular Wilks formula. USPA, one of the largest powerlifting federations in the country, has adopted the Dots formula. The Wilks formula is a constant divided by a fifth degree polynomial in terms of bodyweight, and the Dots formula is a constant divided by a fourth degree polynomial in terms of bodyweight. Here is first an explicit parametric plot via Desmos of the Wilks versus Dots formulas. The horizontal axis is Wilks and the vertical axis is Dots. There are different formulas for F and M/Mx. The red curve is for F for bodyweights ranging 40kg to 150kg, and the blue curve is for M/Mx for bodyweights ranging 60kg to 200kg. The heaviest bodyweights are represented by the bottom-most points on the curves. The dotted green line is the y=x line. A curve being below this dotted line means Wilks favors these lifters. A curve being above this dotted line means Dots favors these lifters. For women, Wilks favors lighter lifters, up to about 62kg. For men, Wilks favors the lightest and the heaviest lifters, below 66kg and above 121kg.`38:T1189,md`

What is the best percentage jump after a successful or missed lift?

As mentioned at the beginning of this very long exposition/analysis of powerlifting data, each lifter gets three attempts at each lift. If a lift is missed, the lifter may not decrease the weight for the next attempt. Thus, strategy is paramount in the sport of powerlifting. It was interesting to investigate whether the data presents an optimal strategy. The answer is sort of. For example, after a successful Squat 1, the most popular/successful strategy is a 6% jump (with 73,787 lifters choosing a 6% jump, and 81.9% of them successful in Squat 2). However, 30 lifters chose a 45% jump, and 89.7% of them were successful. Is a 45% jump a better strategy, only discovered by a few? Likely not. Likely these lifters picked an ultra-conservative number for their opening squat. That is not a bad strategy, necessarily, but not it may or may not be better to pick a number that conservative. There is not really a big enough sample size to say definitively. The most popular/successful percentage jumps are listed below. After Good Squat 1: 6% After Missed Squat 1: 7% After Good Squat 2: 6% After Missed Squat 2: 3% After Good Bench 1: 6% After Missed Bench 1: 6% or 10% (6% is more popular by over double, 10% is slightly more successful) After Good Bench 2: less than 1% After Missed Bench 2: 2% After Good Deadlift 1: 6%, 8%, 10%, or 12% (in order of decreasing popularity, increasing success rate) After Missed Deadlift 1: 6% After Good Deadlift 2: 6% After Missed Deadlift 2: 2% or 10% (2% much more popular, 10% substantially more successful) If all those number are hard to remember, the most popular/successful jump in general seems to be 6%. These numbers should not necessarily be taken as recommendations. For example, a wise piece of advice is to re-take the same weight after missing a lift. The graphs showed a low success rate upon employing this strategy, but this was likely due to the initial weight being chosen too heavy, and it was probably too still too heavy 10 minutes later. It can be hard for newer lifters (or even experienced lifters) to account for meet day factors, such as nerves, extra rules, and potentially a weight cut. For those interested in analyzing strategy, it is highly recommended to click on the links to the 12 interactive graphs! The static graphs are also included below. 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Are lifters continuing to get stronger over time?

\nA lot of powerlifters on social media talk about how everyone is constantly getting stronger over time. It was interesting to check if the data actually supports this. The data is divided broadly by sex (F and M/Mx) and equipment (Raw/Wraps and Single-ply/Multi-ply). It appears that average Wilks scores and totals are remaining relatively constant. Maximum Wilks scores are going up in most divisions except in M/Mx Raw/Wraps, while maximum totals are staying the same except in M Single-ply/Multi-ply (there were no Mx entries in Single-ply or Multi-ply). This generally means that lighter lifters may be lifting more weight, but possibly the heaviest lifters are not. The forecasting is done by Tableau via exponential smoothing, and is, of course, no guarantee of the actual future.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":55,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":100,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Wilks By Year Equipped (F).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":103,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Forecasted Wilks By Year Equipped (F).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":106,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Wilks By Year Equipped (M).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Forecasted Wilks By Year Equipped 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(F).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":158,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Lifts By Year Equipped Only (M).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":161,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Forecasted Lifts By Year Equipped Only (M).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":164,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps (F).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":167,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Forecasted Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps (F).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":170,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps (M and Mx).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":173,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Forecasted Lifts By Year Raw and Wraps (M and Mx).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":178,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":185,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"2019 to 2021 Participation.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":192,"value":"md`

Is equipped powerlifting dying?

\nMany raw powerlifters do not want to be bothered with equipped powerlifting, and believe it peaked around 2007, and will slowly become extinct. The data, in fact, does not support this! The following forecast participation graph shows that Multi-ply participation is holding steady, while Single-ply participation is actually increasing. Raw powerlifting participation is increasing much faster, which may account for the perception that equipped powerlifting is dying.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":197,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Equipped vs Raw Participation.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":202,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":205,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Wilks Glossbrenner Dots.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":208,"value":"md`To see actual data, and to include the Glossbrenner formula (popular for equipped meets, and the explicit formula seems to not be found online), see the following SPLOM plots. The dark points represent the heaviest lifters, and a concentration of dark or light points shows a bias of one formula. For women, the heaviest lifters prefer Wilks over Glossbrenner, and Dots over Wilks. For men, the heaviest lifters prefer Wilks over Glossbrenner, and Glossbrenner over Dots. To reduce overplotting, only data from 1/1/2018 through 1/1/2020 was plotted. One dot was plotted for each event logged for a single lifter.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":211,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Formulas by Bodyweight (F).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":214,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"Formulas by Bodyweight (M and Mx).png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":217,"value":"$38","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":224,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Good Squat 1.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":227,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Missed Squat 1.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":230,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Good Squat 2.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Missed Squat 2.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":236,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Good Bench 1.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":239,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Missed Bench 1.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":242,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Good Bench 2.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":245,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Missed Bench 2.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":248,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Good Deadlift 1.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":251,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Missed Deadlift 1.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":254,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Good Deadlift 2.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":258,"value":"md`${await FileAttachment(\"How Much to Jump After Missed Deadlift 2.png\").image()}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W39","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 30:"$2f:body"