2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"Covid-19 pod probs | Tristan Snowsill | Observable"}] 33:[] 31:{"id":"cefc0a4bbc1d6df1","slug":"covid-19-pod-probs","title":"Covid-19 pod probs","thumbnail":"39a1c1bb86d4bbac5f557bb680e090a9524326967155000dc439e8a6158c212f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-07-22T19:50:49.961Z","update_time":"$D2020-07-22T20:43:56.026Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-07-22T20:15:15.914Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"8b9fd1c497866b4c","login":"tristansnowsill","name":"Tristan Snowsill","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/64c9251da9e7882cff9f65143a891c8e704ea146f533a8a8d047db5d5b85e2d7","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":61,"publish_version":61,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"e58dc19ae14608ba","login":"tristansnowsill","name":"Tristan Snowsill","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/64c9251da9e7882cff9f65143a891c8e704ea146f533a8a8d047db5d5b85e2d7","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"e58dc19ae14608ba","login":"tristansnowsill","name":"Tristan Snowsill","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/64c9251da9e7882cff9f65143a891c8e704ea146f533a8a8d047db5d5b85e2d7","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Covid-19 pod probs","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Covid-19 pod probs\n\nThis is to briefly illustrate that if a pod is formed of people who have had negative Covid-19 RT-PCR tests, there is still a chance that at least one person in the pod has Covid-19.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2,"value":"viewof userInput = form(html``)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":23,"value":"md`Based on these inputs, the probability that at least one person in the pod has Covid-19 (despite everyone having a negative test result) is **${risk}**`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":24,"value":"pretestOdds = userInput.prevalenceNumerator / (userInput.prevalenceDenominator - userInput.prevalenceNumerator)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":33,"value":"likelihoodRatio = 1 - userInput.sensitivity","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":37,"value":"posttestOdds = pretestOdds * likelihoodRatio","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":41,"value":"posttestProb = posttestOdds / (1 + posttestOdds)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":44,"value":"risk = 1 - ((1 - posttestProb) ** userInput.podSize)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":9,"value":"import { form } from \"@mbostock/form-input\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W33","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"