2e:null 2f:["$","title",null,{"children":"Quarantine Now | Yuri Vishnevsky | Observable"}] 34:T536,md` - Data is sourced from [JHU](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) with some manual cleaning; you can view it on the Web [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTknmeSuCVDjJxuKG_pcg7od8EDcz_zYkoO8_QWLf8geuyBd4-7pGzKBbg9Y9ySg7NbHtL2oaKWRDKs/pubhtml#). Events are curated from news and Wikipedia timelines. - Forecasts assume that the region sees the same growth rates as either Italy or South Korea starting 2/25. If needed, forecasts are extended by assuming that the 3-day geometric average growth rate of Italy/South Korea continues into the future. - Healthcare overload events are forecast by assuming that they happen at the same level of per-capita COVID-19 cases as Italy. Per-capita cases are calculated over the hardest-hit metro area in a region/country, using county- or city-level case data where appropriate. - "Day 1" is when a country reaches 100 cases. A country is "X days behind Italy" if they reached 100 cases that many days after Italy did. - In Massachusetts, cases are forecast using the Italy model starting on Wednesday 3/11, because testing was [so slow that an exploding epidemic couldn't have been detected](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/14/metro/baker-sets-up-virus-command-center/). MA testing velocity is about 30x slower than other US states with comparable outbreaks. `35:[{"id":"dc61399fed07f8dfb4577e2f743910894046680b1bba429bdb83d42d8ec928039f33f1f69d2da0e4904f1f484b1431d1ebab95a600c5cf7c5185ce591d85b7c7","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/dc61399fed07f8dfb4577e2f743910894046680b1bba429bdb83d42d8ec928039f33f1f69d2da0e4904f1f484b1431d1ebab95a600c5cf7c5185ce591d85b7c7","name":"concourse_t4_regular.woff","type":"font/woff","lastModified":1584300947407.732,"size":38040},{"id":"fd56c154bbd02c13d3932f87c648b1432a6ef814e024fdea8d63f623e324d64b42600b6a3f6a9ce1dab1700013a0c84f95fe4778a94d8171f09f6cde61398300","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/fd56c154bbd02c13d3932f87c648b1432a6ef814e024fdea8d63f623e324d64b42600b6a3f6a9ce1dab1700013a0c84f95fe4778a94d8171f09f6cde61398300","name":"concourse_c4_bold.woff","type":"font/woff","lastModified":1584300947412.189,"size":37948},{"id":"8d21be38e50ccc3d1dd9c87e094e4bcc9c7e61e94d1d6659426c9e72c683f6df2144fe2511e174e29224f5a3c6dfad63b4632a77450d5f6185626f038f2db46c","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/8d21be38e50ccc3d1dd9c87e094e4bcc9c7e61e94d1d6659426c9e72c683f6df2144fe2511e174e29224f5a3c6dfad63b4632a77450d5f6185626f038f2db46c","name":"concourse_t4_bold.woff","type":"font/woff","lastModified":1584300947433.913,"size":38604},{"id":"4b2ce2dacb431c67224a8b8517c72d51c3d49217eb9e81125d0b6375fcbaadb14279298c81874a9df2d45397f72288944528194b47dc83de02aad923d2da820e","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/4b2ce2dacb431c67224a8b8517c72d51c3d49217eb9e81125d0b6375fcbaadb14279298c81874a9df2d45397f72288944528194b47dc83de02aad923d2da820e","name":"concourse_c4_regular.woff","type":"font/woff","lastModified":1584300947416.073,"size":37752}] 32:{"id":"e44aea7e7f3f065a","slug":"quarantine-now","title":"Quarantine Now","thumbnail":"0777962e87615149e0c6af3ad0cb21d2c9d61fe60de92c4f9430eaaf5576548f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-03-15T17:16:05.086Z","update_time":"$D2020-03-18T17:04:19.263Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-03-15T20:37:08.726Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":133,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"106fc7e7a0f11e48","login":"yurivish","name":"Yuri Vishnevsky","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c0c68df86cdf3364fbb25a90d00bb51b5aa7308a1ba7de3fa44d1ae591054612","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":334,"publish_version":334,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"75318191e4a00562","login":"benkuhn","name":"Ben Kuhn","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/5ec2764f728f9ef4d239ced4c4fdfa04220faa7224d0a33b1b6b56c1c98e54c5","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"de2630f386f3cdb1","login":"yurivish","name":"Yuri Vishnevsky","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/c0c68df86cdf3364fbb25a90d00bb51b5aa7308a1ba7de3fa44d1ae591054612","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":54,"collection":{"id":"e7cc41ec60819d92","slug":"coronavirus","title":"Coronavirus","owner":{"id":"f35c755083683fe5","login":"observablehq","name":"Observable"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Quarantine Now","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Quarantine Now\n

Containment gets harder every day we delay.
By Ben Kuhn and Yuri Vishnevsky

\n\nWhen coronavirus cases spiked in Lombardy, officials thought they moved quickly—putting 50,000 people in 11 towns under lockdown. But it wasn't nearly enough: two weeks later, when they shut down the entire country, the epidemic was 100 times bigger with little sign of stopping.\n\n**We need stronger measures, much faster.**\n\nSo far, successful mitigations in China/Korea have involved near-complete shutdown, very early in the epidemic, around the time of 100 confirmed cases. Even so, cases have continued to explode 1-2 weeks after the shutdown, since confirmed cases usually represent an infection that was contracted 4-10 days ago.\n\nLet's see how this would play out in your region, if you implement either:\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":30,"value":"viewof scenario","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":87,"value":"viewof myRegion = select({\n options: allData.map(it => it.name),\n value: \"New York\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":40,"value":"{\n return html`

${charts}`;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":168,"value":"colorLegend","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":213,"value":"md``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":106,"value":"md`# Act now to encourage a full shutdown\n\nCall your state governor's office (or other regional elected executive) and ask them to shut down all non-essential businesses as soon as possible.\n\n**[You can find your governor's phone number here](https://www.nga.org/governors/addresses/)**.\n\n---\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":103,"value":"md`## How other regions stack up`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":127,"value":"html`

${allCharts}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"md`## Appendix / methodology`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":112,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":254,"value":"md`_Thanks to Moritz Stefaner, Mike Bostock, Randall Munroe, and Yuriy Rusko for feedback on a draft version of this post._`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":194,"value":"md`## Appendix: imports`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":149,"value":"concourse_t4_regular = FileAttachment(\"concourse_t4_regular.woff\").url()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":151,"value":"concourse_t4_bold = FileAttachment(\"concourse_t4_bold.woff\").url()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":180,"value":"charts = [\"South Korea\", myRegion, \"Italy\"].map(name =>\n chart(allData.find(r => r.name == name))\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":177,"value":"{\n charts.forEach(chart => chart.update(scenario));\n allCharts.forEach(chart => chart.update(scenario));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":187,"value":"allCharts = allData.map(d => chart(d))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":190,"value":"gtag = {\n await require(\"https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=UA-160641730-1\").catch(\n () => {}\n );\n const dataLayer = (window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []);\n function gtag() {\n dataLayer.push(arguments);\n }\n gtag('js', new Date());\n gtag('config', 'UA-160641730-1');\n return gtag;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":145,"value":"concourse_c4_regular = FileAttachment(\"concourse_c4_regular.woff\").url()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":147,"value":"concourse_c4_bold = FileAttachment(\"concourse_c4_bold.woff\").url()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":121,"value":"styleEmbed","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":144,"value":"html`