2a:null 2b:["$","title",null,{"children":"Election results challenge: Precincts reporting | Zev Youra | Observable"}] 30:T60b,md`The risk of confusing readers about the ultimate outcome of the race can be seen in the New York Times page reporting results from California's 10th Congressional District. On Wednesday, November 7, the day after polls closed, this is how the page appeared, according to a snapshot taken by the [Internet Archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20181107205804/https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/california-house-district-10). I've added a red box to emphasize how precincts reporting were described. ![Before](https://gist.githubusercontent.com/palewire/d653820292a4825f647f4a32b1fe118c/raw/05ed45fc82ea95f864623af7f1b2f1aad0f035d1/before.png) [A week later](https://web.archive.org/web/20181114171358/https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/california-house-district-10), after 75,000 more provisional and vote-by-mail ballots had been counted, the result reversed. The precincts reporting figure, which I've emphasized again, is unchanged. Some observers believe this contributes to public confusion, or at least is an imperfection in the report. ![After](https://gist.github.com/palewire/d653820292a4825f647f4a32b1fe118c/raw/05ed45fc82ea95f864623af7f1b2f1aad0f035d1/after.png) This display is commonplace, including on the competing tables I personally produced [at the Los Angeles Times](http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-na-us-general-election-results-2018/). I point it out on the New York Times because its pages are well preserved by the Internet Archive and is what I consider the gold standard in information graphics.`31:T68a,html`

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
Jeff Denham*	Republican	56,701	50.6%
Josh Harder	Democrat	55,414	49.4%

112,115 votes, 100% reporting (478 of 478 precincts)

* Incumbent

`32:T634,html`

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
Jeff Denham* Leading — too close to call	Republican	56,701	50.6%
Josh Harder	Democrat	55,414	49.4%

${voteCountExplanation}

* Incumbent

`33:T7e4,style = html` `34:[] 2e:{"id":"059d7a2f62ead321","slug":"election-results-challenge-precincts-reporting","title":"Election results challenge: Precincts reporting","thumbnail":"9a564a8b24497976709c181690a5676b5d11ec339cc0f555f299f23798cda92f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2018-11-16T22:09:19.959Z","update_time":"$D2018-11-27T19:16:58.669Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2018-11-27T19:17:19.264Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":{"id":"a3e8da85215eabb2","slug":"election-results-challenge-precincts-reporting","title":"Election results challenge: Precincts reporting","owner":{"id":"ecf037f5c1847e7a","login":"palewire","name":"Ben Welsh"}},"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"80a52c093fcb91a5","login":"zzzev","name":"Zev Youra","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e46dd464d5c1b415fc4f637fee1048757ab80e9001f6117871bd08c8aff84009","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":326,"publish_version":326,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"1b24aed4afb24eb1","login":"zzzev","name":"Zev Youra","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e46dd464d5c1b415fc4f637fee1048757ab80e9001f6117871bd08c8aff84009","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"1b24aed4afb24eb1","login":"zzzev","name":"Zev Youra","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e46dd464d5c1b415fc4f637fee1048757ab80e9001f6117871bd08c8aff84009","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":{"id":"dbd018b9c99bdd71","slug":"precincts-reporting-challenge","title":"Precincts Reporting Challenge","owner":{"id":"f35c755083683fe5","login":"observablehq","name":"Observable"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Election results challenge: Precincts reporting","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Election results challenge: Precincts reporting\n\nA week after the 2018 midterm elections, U.S. officials are still counting ballots. A handful of close races remain undecided.\n\nIn states like California, the increasing number of provisional and mail-in ballots tallied following Election Day has made the outcome after the initial round of results less certain. News consumers, used to decisive calls after polls close, need to be informed that tight races will now take days or weeks to be finalized.\n\n[Voices](https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1062591693722017794) in the news media are calling for a reform of how television broadcasters and online publishers commonly describe \"precincts reporting.\" On the day of the election, this number refers exclusively to votes collected at polling places and counted on Election Day. It entirely ignores the pile of votes, increasing each year, that must be counted in the days that follow.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":50,"value":"md`### Got a better idea? Here's you chance to prove it\n\nRather than complain, let's come up with something better. I've created a simplified version of the New York Times table from the day after the election below using the excellent tools available here at Observable.\n\n**Your challenge:** Fork this page, [use Observable's new merge feature](https://beta.observablehq.com/@observablehq/fork-share-merge), and suggest some changes. The best submission will earn a free lunch with the Los Angeles Times Data Desk at the [upcoming NICAR conference in Newport Beach](https://www.ire.org/events-and-training/event/3433/). \n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":154,"value":"md`## Original`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":60,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":115,"value":"md`## My Version`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":157,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":200,"value":"md`### Explanation of changes\n\nI wanted to make explicit what \"100% reporting\" means: in person votes have been counted, but more remain uncounted. Since we can make a rough guess of the total expected vote count (based on historical trends and election day turnout), I included the percentage of the total expected vote. In this case, I assumed the newsroom underestimated the actual eventual total.\n\nI also added a more complete explanation in a hover element that explains where the various votes come from, and when a final call can be expected. This format has several advantages: it's compact by default, yet allows space for full explanation, and it can be easily adapted to states with different voting laws and patterns.\n\nFinally, I added a subtitle to the leader's cell, which makes it clear that they haven't won yet, despite being highlighted.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":198,"value":"voteCountExplanation = html`\n

\n ${siFormat(voteCount)} votes counted (100% of in person voting, ${percentFormat(voteCount / totalExpectedVote)} of expected total ${siFormat(totalExpectedVote)} votes).\n \n ?\n ${popupContents}\n \n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":255,"value":"popupContents = md`### About the Vote Count\n\nAll in person votes have been counted, but mail in and provisional ballots are still being tallied. Based on turnout and previous elections, we estimate there are **about 50,000 uncounted votes**.\n\nGiven the current margin of ${d3.format(\",d\")(Math.abs(rVotes - dVotes))} votes, it is **too close to call** this race.\n\nBased on the current count and previous election results, we expect a **final call by November 14**.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":212,"value":"myStyle = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":176,"value":"rVotes = 56701","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":179,"value":"dVotes = 55414","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":173,"value":"voteCount = rVotes + dVotes","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":181,"value":"totalExpectedVote = 175e3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":184,"value":"percentFormat = d3.format('.0%')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":161,"value":"siFormat = d3.format('.3s')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":162,"value":"d3 = require('d3@5')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1"}} 2f:"$2e:body"