25:["$","title",null,{"children":"Red Sox Payroll | Olivia Schultz | Observable"}] 49:T8bc, viewof clickedPlayer = { const max = Math.max( ...data.map(d => +d.salary_26 || 0), ...data.map(d => +d.estimated_value_usd || 0), 1 ) * 1.05; const chart = Plot.plot({ title: "Red Sox Value Index", subtitle: "Click a player's dot to select them", width: 800, height: 550, marginLeft: 85, marginBottom: 65, x: { label: "2026 Salary ($)", domain: [0, max], grid: true, tickFormat: d => `$${(d / 1e6).toFixed(0)}M` }, y: { label: "Estimated Value ($)", domain: [0, max], grid: true, tickFormat: d => `$${(d / 1e6).toFixed(0)}M` }, marks: [ Plot.line( [{x: 0, y: 0}, {x: max, y: max}], { x: "x", y: "y", stroke: "#777777", strokeDasharray: "5,5", strokeWidth: 1.5 } ), Plot.dot(data, { x: d => +d.salary_26, y: d => +d.estimated_value_usd, fill: d => String(d.verdict).toLowerCase().trim() === "undervalued" ? "#27865C" : String(d.verdict).toLowerCase().trim() === "overvalued" ? "#D9485F" : "#888888", r: 7, stroke: "white", strokeWidth: 0.7, title: d => `${d["player name"]}\nSalary: $${(+d.salary_26).toLocaleString()}\nfWAR: ${d.fwar_26}\nEstimated value: $${(+d.estimated_value_usd).toLocaleString()}`, tip: true }) ] }); let selected = data[0]; chart.addEventListener("click", event => { const [px, py] = d3.pointer(event, chart); const xScale = chart.scale("x"); const yScale = chart.scale("y"); let nearest = null; let nearestDistance = Infinity; for (const d of data) { const cx = xScale(+d.salary_26); const cy = yScale(+d.estimated_value_usd); const distance = Math.hypot(cx - px, cy - py); if (distance < nearestDistance) { nearestDistance = distance; nearest = d; } } if (nearest && nearestDistance < 25) { selected = nearest; chart.value = selected; chart.dispatchEvent(new Event("input", {bubbles: true})); } }); chart.value = selected; return chart; } 4a:Tb4a, playerProfile = { const p = clickedPlayer ?? data[0]; const isPitcher = String(p.position ?? "").toUpperCase().includes("P"); const money = value => Number.isFinite(+value) ? (+value).toLocaleString("en-US", { style: "currency", currency: "USD", maximumFractionDigits: 0 }) : "N/A"; const battingAverage = p.batting_avg_26 !== "" && p.batting_avg_26 != null && Number.isFinite(+p.batting_avg_26) ? (+p.batting_avg_26).toFixed(3).replace(/^0/, "") : "N/A"; const era = p.era_26 !== "" && p.era_26 != null && Number.isFinite(+p.era_26) ? (+p.era_26).toFixed(2) : "N/A"; const surplus = +p.surplus_value_usd; const verdict = String(p.verdict ?? "N/A").toLowerCase().trim(); const verdictColor = verdict === "undervalued" ? "#27865C" : verdict === "overvalued" ? "#D9485F" : "#888888"; return html`

${p["player name"]}

${p.position}

2026 Salary

${money(p.salary_26)}

FanGraphs WAR (fWAR)

${p.fwar_26 ?? "N/A"}

Estimated Value

${money(p.estimated_value_usd)}

Surplus Value

${money(p.surplus_value_usd)}

${isPitcher ? "ERA" : "Batting Average"}

${isPitcher ? era : battingAverage}

${verdict}

`; } 4b:T78b, undervaluedLeaderboard = { const topPlayers = data .filter(d => d.surplus_value_usd !== "" && d.surplus_value_usd != null && Number.isFinite(+d.surplus_value_usd) ) .sort((a, b) => +b.surplus_value_usd - +a.surplus_value_usd) .slice(0, 5); const money = value => (+value).toLocaleString("en-US", { style: "currency", currency: "USD", maximumFractionDigits: 0 }); return html`

Most Undervalued Red Sox Players

Top players by estimated surplus value.

${topPlayers.map((d, i) => html` `)}

Rank	Player	Position	Salary	Surplus Value
${i + 1}	${d["player name"]}	${d.position}	${money(d.salary_26)}	+${money(d.surplus_value_usd)}

`; } 4c:T669, overvaluedLeaderboard = { const topPlayers = data .filter(d => d.surplus_value_usd !== "" && d.surplus_value_usd != null && Number.isFinite(+d.surplus_value_usd) ) .sort((a, b) => +a.surplus_value_usd - +b.surplus_value_usd) .slice(0, 5); const money = value => (+value).toLocaleString("en-US", { style: "currency", currency: "USD", maximumFractionDigits: 0 }); return html`

Biggest Overpay

Lowest estimated surplus values.

${topPlayers.map((d, i) => html` `)}

Rank	Player	Surplus Value
${i + 1}	${d["player name"]}	${money(d.surplus_value_usd)}

`; } 4d:Tcdb, keyInsights = { const players = data.filter(d => d.surplus_value_usd !== "" && d.surplus_value_usd != null && Number.isFinite(+d.surplus_value_usd) ); const bestValue = [...players].sort( (a, b) => +b.surplus_value_usd - +a.surplus_value_usd )[0]; const largestGap = [...players].sort( (a, b) => +a.surplus_value_usd - +b.surplus_value_usd )[0]; const totalSurplus = players.reduce( (sum, d) => sum + (+d.surplus_value_usd), 0 ); const money = value => (+value).toLocaleString("en-US", { style: "currency", currency: "USD", maximumFractionDigits: 0 }); return html`

Key Insights

What the salary and performance data reveals

BEST VALUE

${bestValue ? bestValue["player name"] : "N/A"}

${bestValue ? "+" + money(bestValue.surplus_value_usd) : "N/A"}

Highest surplus value

LARGEST SALARY GAP

${largestGap ? largestGap["player name"] : "N/A"}

${largestGap ? money(largestGap.surplus_value_usd) : "N/A"}

Lowest surplus value

TOTAL ROSTER SURPLUS

${money(totalSurplus)}

Across ${players.length} players with available data

Estimates use the $8 million-per-fWAR assumption. These figures reflect the model, not definitive player market value.

`; } 4e:T9b3, methodology = html`

Methodology & Limitations

How the model works

This analysis compares each player's 2026 salary with an estimated dollar value derived from FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). WAR estimates a player's total contributions relative to a replacement-level player, allowing performance to be compared across different positions.

For this model, estimated player value is calculated by multiplying fWAR by an assumed value of $8 million per win. Surplus value is calculated by subtracting a player's 2026 salary from that estimated value. Players with surplus values above $2 million are classified as undervalued, those below -$2 million as overvalued, and those between these thresholds as fairly valued.

Important limitations

Assumed dollar value: The $8 million-per-WAR figure is a simplifying assumption, not a precise estimate of the current market price of a win.
Salary complexity: Listed salaries may not capture all contract details, including signing bonuses, deferred payments, incentives, or the distinction between salary and a team's total financial commitment.
Performance uncertainty: WAR can fluctuate from season to season and does not guarantee future performance.
Incomplete valuation: This model does not fully account for age, injuries, contract length, future potential, positional needs, or the strategic value of a roster spot.

The Red Sox Value Index is a simplified analytical framework for exploring the relationship between player performance and salary. Its classifications should be interpreted as model-based estimates, rather than definitive judgments of a player's worth.

`; 4f:Ta41, projectIntro = html`

Baseball Analytics · 2026

Red Sox Value Index

How efficiently do the Boston Red Sox convert player salaries into on-field production? This project compares 2026 player salaries with estimated performance value to explore player valuation, surplus value, and roster resource allocation.

PERFORMANCE

FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) estimates a player's contributions relative to a replacement-level player.

ESTIMATED VALUE

Estimated value = fWAR × $8 million per WAR.

SURPLUS VALUE

Surplus value = estimated value − 2026 salary. Positive values indicate estimated value above salary.

Methodology note: The $8 million-per-WAR figure is a modeling assumption, not a definitive market price. Results depend on the selected salary, performance, and valuation inputs.

`; 50:T972, sources = html`

Sources & Data

Data and definitions used in the Red Sox Value Index. Salary and performance figures are based on the 2026 season dataset assembled for this project.

FanGraphs RosterResource — Boston Red Sox Payroll
Reference for player salary and contract information.
FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library — What Is WAR?
Explains Wins Above Replacement and the fWAR metric used to represent player performance.
MLB.com — Statistics
Reference for batting average and pitching statistics.

Model assumptions

Estimated value is calculated as fWAR multiplied by $8 million per WAR. Surplus value equals estimated value minus player salary. Classification thresholds of +$2 million and -$2 million are analyst-defined assumptions, not published industry standards.

Salary and performance data may vary by source and update date. See the linked sources for definitions and current information.

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\n \n \n Undervalued\n \n \n \n Overvalued\n \n \n \n Fairly valued\n \n \n \n Salary = estimated value\n \n

\n`;\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"$49","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":33,"value":"$4a","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":35,"value":"$4b","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":37,"value":"$4c","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":39,"value":"$4d","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":41,"value":"\nhtml`\n${projectIntro}\n

Player Value Analysis

\n${chartLegend}\n${viewof clickedPlayer}\n\n

\n ${undervaluedLeaderboard}\n

\n\n

Player Profile

\n\n

\n ${playerProfile}\n

\n\n

\n ${overvaluedLeaderboard}\n

\n\n ${keyInsights}\n\n ${methodology}\n\n ${sources}\n`\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":51,"value":"$4e","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":43,"value":"$4f","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":55,"value":"$50","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W51","stdlib":"1"}} 24:null