2f:T8c3,// Visualization of Ukraine ceasefire prediction markets viewof ceasefireChart = { // First, ensure ceaseFire is an array const markets = Array.isArray(ceaseFire) ? ceaseFire : Object.values(ceaseFire); // Prepare the data for charting const chartData = []; const now = new Date(); const fortyEightHoursAgo = new Date(now - 48 * 60 * 60 * 1000); // Process each market and add to chart data markets.forEach((market, marketIndex) => { if (!market.history || !Array.isArray(market.history)) return; // Extract and format the history data market.history.forEach(point => { const timestamp = new Date(point.t * 1000); // Only include data from the last 48 hours if (timestamp >= fortyEightHoursAgo) { chartData.push({ date: timestamp, probability: point.p * 100, market: market.question || `Market ${marketIndex + 1}` }); } }); }); // Create the chart const chart = Plot.plot({ marks: [ // Add lines for each market Plot.line(chartData, { x: "date", y: "probability", stroke: "market", strokeWidth: 2, curve: "basis" }), // Add rule for current time Plot.ruleX([new Date()], {stroke: "gray", strokeDasharray: "5,5"}) ], y: { domain: [0, 100], label: "Probability (%)", grid: true }, x: { label: "Date", grid: true }, height: 500, width: 900, marginRight: 200, // Extra space for the legend marginLeft: 60, marginBottom: 40, marginTop: 40, color: { legend: true // This will automatically create a legend }, // Add title title: "Ukraine Ceasefire Prediction Markets", subtitle: "Probability changes over last 48 hours" }); // Create the container with positioned elements const container = html`

${chart}

ADJACENT

`; return container; }30:T41c,// Process the ceasefire market data processedCeasefireData = { // Wait for the ceaseFire promise to resolve const marketsData = await ceaseFire; // First, ensure marketsData is an array const markets = Array.isArray(marketsData) ? marketsData : Object.values(marketsData); // Prepare the data for charting const chartData = []; const now = new Date(); const fortyEightHoursAgo = new Date(now - 48 * 60 * 60 * 1000); // Process each market and add to chart data markets.forEach((market, marketIndex) => { if (!market.history || !Array.isArray(market.history)) return; // Extract and format the history data market.history.forEach(point => { const timestamp = new Date(point.t * 1000); // Only include data from the last 48 hours if (timestamp >= fortyEightHoursAgo) { chartData.push({ date: timestamp, probability: point.p * 100, market: market.question || `Market ${marketIndex + 1}` }); } }); }); return chartData; }31:T5a6,// Create the ceasefire visualization ceasefireChart2 = { // Get the processed data from the previous cell const chartData = processedCeasefireData; // Create the chart const chart = Plot.plot({ marks: [ // Add lines for each market Plot.line(chartData, { x: "date", y: "probability", stroke: "market", strokeWidth: 2, curve: "basis" }), // Add rule for current time Plot.ruleX([new Date()], {stroke: "gray", strokeDasharray: "5,5"}) ], y: { domain: [0, 100], label: "Probability (%)", grid: true }, x: { label: "Date", grid: true }, height: 500, width: 900, marginRight: 200, // Extra space for the legend marginLeft: 60, marginBottom: 40, marginTop: 40, color: { legend: true // This will automatically create a legend }, // Add title title: "Ukraine Ceasefire Prediction Markets", subtitle: "Probability changes over last 48 hours" }); // Create the container with positioned elements const container = html`

${chart}

ADJACENT

`; return container; }32:[] 2d:{"title":"Russia’s Kyiv Blitz Torpedoes Ceasefire Odds","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Russia’s Kyiv Blitz Torpedoes Ceasefire Odds","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":5,"value":"First, let's map out price action across the ceasefire markets over the last 24 hours","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":7,"value":"// First, we fetch the ceasefire markets\nceaseFire = fetch(\n \"https://api.data.adj.news/api/markets?sort_by=updated_at&sort_dir=desc&keyword=ukraine%20ceasefire&api_key=38314d45-7899-4f51-a860-f6b898707a70&status=active\"\n)\n.then((response) => response.json())\n.then((responseData) => {\n console.log(\"API Response Structure:\", responseData);\n \n const currentDate = new Date();\n \n // Assuming the actual market data is in responseData.data or a similar property\n const markets = responseData.data || responseData.results || responseData.markets || responseData;\n \n // Filter out markets with passed resolution dates\n if (Array.isArray(markets)) {\n return markets.filter(market => {\n return !market.resolution_date || new Date(market.resolution_date) > currentDate;\n });\n } else {\n console.error(\"Unexpected data structure:\", responseData);\n return [];\n }\n});","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":17,"value":"Now that we have these markets, let's grab pricing history over the last 48 hours direct from Polymarket for these markets (Adjacent will soon offer these as well)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":103,"value":"// historical market data will soon be a part of the Adjacent Trade API but for now we can fetch direct from the sources\nfunction polymarketPrices(id) {\n try {\n // Current time in milliseconds\n const endTs = Date.now();\n\n // Fetch price history data for the last 30 days\n const startTs = endTs - 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\n const response = fetch(\n `https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=${id}&endTs=${endTs}&startTs=${startTs}`\n ).then((response) => response.json());\n return response || [];\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(`Error fetching price history for market ${id}:`, error);\n return [];\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":106,"value":"// get price data from polymarket for now until Adjacent Trade API is live \nfilteredData = {\n const marketPromises = [];\n let filteredData = ceaseFire.filter(market => market.platform === \"polymarket\")\n for (let marketIndex in filteredData) {\n const market = filteredData[marketIndex];\n let pricePromise;\n \n // find what platform the market is to pull the pricing \n switch (market.platform) {\n case 'polymarket':\n pricePromise = polymarketPrices(market.platform_ids.asset_id_yes)\n .then(prices => {\n market.history = prices.history || [];\n return market;\n });\n break;\n default:\n pricePromise = Promise.resolve(market);\n }\n \n marketPromises.push(pricePromise);\n }\n return filteredData\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":132,"value":"Attempt at visualization using objects returned from `ceaseFire` request","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":134,"value":"$2f","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":166,"value":"$30","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":178,"value":"$31","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W32","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}